Dubai Kahayla Classic – GR1 D10F/2000M – $250k – Purebred Arabians
The Kahayla Classic has been won by horses owned by Sheikh Hamdan for the last three years, and this year looks like it’s going to be more of the same. He owns four of the 11 starters and, on ratings, this should be a one horse race. That one horse is Madjani (FR), lat year’s winner. At 122, he is rated a full 12 points clear of the next best runner. He’s won eight of nine starts and finished second in the other. He’s won all four of his most recent starts, three of those Gr1’s and the latest by 13 lengths.
Possible contenders must include Amperor Des Cedres (FR). He’s won his last four races, from only five career starts, and is rated 107. Arsene Rupin (FR) has won five from seven, the latest a Gr2 by 10 lengths, is a Gr1 winner and rated 100. He hasn’t raced since October, however. Charh (GB), rated 105, has been running over shorter but has been putting up decent performances in weaker company in Dubai this season. Djezika (FR) is the highest rated mare in the field at 110. Her return to the track in February after a five month break was a win, and she failed narrowly in a Gr1 on the turf last year.
The balance can only be racing for minor money in this lineup and Madjani (FR) is a confident selection.
Godolphin Mile – GR2 D8F/1600M – $1m
Last years winning trainer/jockey combination, South African’s Mike De Kock and Weichong Marwing, return for another crack at the Godolphin Mile, this time with Lundy’s Liability (BRZ), winner of the 2004 UAE Derby. Unfortunately, after a successful four race stint in the USA where he won two Gr2’s, Lundy’s Liability (BRZ) ran a distant seventh in the World Cup and hasn’t shown his old form in his three Dubai starts this season. On recent form, and his current rating of 108, he looks well held by the likes of Jack Sullivan (USA) and Blatant (GB).
Blatant (GB), rated 118, was beaten a length by Jack Sullivan (USA), rated 115, last time out over 1800 metres in a Gr3 in Dubai. In his previous start, Blatant (GB) won a Gr3 over a mile by almost 10 lengths. On a line through their defeats of Lundy’s Liability (BRZ), Jack Sullivan (USA) is just over two lengths superior to Blatant (GB). Coupled with their last meeting, he should be the pick of the two, though there isn’t much between them.
Court Masterpiece (GB), rated 113, has consistent recent form on turf including a narrow Gr1 victory over 1400 metres in October. He must be a contender if he can reproduce that form on dirt. Holiday Camp (USA) is only a two time winner from 11 starts with a 107 rating, but his good third in a Gr2 last time must give him a chance. Marbush (IRE), rated 113, has been in very good form in Dubai of late, winning a Gr3 last time out by more than seven lengths from Win River Win (USA). The latter, rated 107, has an impressive record of 24 wins from 47 starts but looks well held on that run.
Shamoan (IRE) is a two time winner from 15 starts with a 109 rating and looks to have some work to do to score here. Utopia (JPN) has a good record of 7 wins from 30 starts and a 113 rating but has modest recent form compared to others here. Island Fashion (USA) is the only mare in the field. Her recent form in the USA suggests she has a bit to find to win.
This looks like it’s going to be a closely fought affair. I’ll go for Marbush (IRE) to win it from Jack Sullivan (USA) and Blatant (GB).
UAE Derby – GR2 D9F/1800M – $2m
The lineup for this year’s derby is impressive and it seems a pity that it isn’t rated as a Gr1. The international credentials on show here are impeccable.
Dominguin (PER), rated 101, is unbeaten in five starts and has won his last four by 8, 19, 10 and 5 lengths. The last of those was a Gr3. Gaburin (AUS) has won his last two starts well, but may actually a little outclassed here off his 100 rating. Gold For Sale (ARG), rated 110, is unbeaten in six starts. Those included a Gr3 in Dubai last time out where he narrowly defeated Where’s That Tiger (USA), and a Gr1, Gr2, and Gr3 in South America. Invasor (ARG), rated 104, in unbeaten in five starts, the last four all listed stakes races from 1500 to 2500 metres.
Jackson (BRZ), rated 101, finished third in a Gr1 in November but is well held by Simpatico Bribon (CHI) on their meeting in a Gr3 in Dubai last time out. My Royal Captain (NZ), rated 105, won his first three starts before failing in a listed race in Singapore and then running a two length third to Gold For Sale (ARG) in Dubai when trying dirt for the first time.
Simpatico Bribon (CHI), has won seven from nine and is rated a massive 120. He beat Where’s That Tiger (USA) by six lengths last time out while giving him 7 kilograms. Discreet Cat (USA), rated 110, is the chief hope of last years winning trainer/owner combination of Saeed bin Suroor and Godolphin. He’s only run, and won, twice at low level, but couldn’t have been more impressive when cantering home by four lengths in Dubai earlier this month. He didn’t beat anything of note and could be anything.
Flamme De Passion (JPN), rated 106, has won three from five, including two easy dirt victories at his last two visits to a track. Testimony (USA) is Godolphin’s second string here and looks outclassed off his 95 rating. Unification (CAN), rated 102, won two of his first three starts but then came up against Gold For Sale (ARG) and Simpatico Bribon (CHI) who soundly beat him by 8 and 11 lengths respectively. Well Armed (USA) looks to have some work to do off his 100 rating, having beaten Testimony (USA) by 3.50 lengths before finishing 16 lengths behind Gold For Sale (ARG). Where’s That Tiger (USA) is the charge of South Africa’s Mike De Kock, the winning derby trainer in 2004 and 2003, and the ride of Weichong Marwing who won the race in 2004. Rated 108 and showing consistent form despite only winning his debut of his five starts, he looks well held by Simpatico Bribon (CHI) and Gold For Sale (ARG) at level weights.
It’s difficult to compare the form of Dominguin (PER) and Invasor (ARG) with the big guns, and Discreet Cat (USA) could be good enough to go for the Kentucky Derby after this race as his connections hope, but I can’t select anything here other than Simpatico Bribon (CHI) to win from Gold For Sale (ARG), both trained by Ian Jory.
Dubai Golden Shaheen – Gr1 D6F/1200M – $2m
A large field of 16 lines up for the sprint and it’s a highly competitive bunch with their ratings ranging from 104 to 115. I’ll try to pick out the main contenders.
Captain Square (USA), rated 110, has decent form at Gr3 level in the USA but may prefer a touch further. Gaff (USA), also rated 110, narrowly won a Gr3 last time out in the USA and looks an improving sort. Heart Alone (BRZ), rated 115, is a Gr1 winner on turf and was an easy victor is his dirt debut in a Gr3 in Dubai. Jet West (USA), rated 106, has consistent Gr2 and GR3 form in the USA. Proud Tower Too (USA) is rated 111 and brings with him a Gr1 win over seven furlongs in December. Provided the six furlongs isn’t too sharp, he should be one of the main contenders. Thor’s Echo (USA), rated 109, looks to have a couple of lengths to find on Proud Tower Too (USA) and Jet West (USA) but looks a consistent sort. Tropical Star (IRE), rated 111, was third in this race last year and has two good preparation wins. His poor run behind Heart Alone (BRZ) in between is probably best ignored.
Heart Alone (BRZ) has the top rating here after comfortably dispatching Conroy (USA), rated 104, last time out while giving him weight. He could be the one to beat, but I suspect that Proud Tower Too (USA) is not going to go down without a fight. Having gone down by only a length to Saratoga County last year, and with his current good form, Tropical Star (IRE) must have a huge chance of going one better this time, and is my tentative selection in a difficult race.
Dubai Sheema Classic – Gr1 T12F/2400M – $5m
The Sheema Classic is the first of the two joint richest turf races in the world on the Dubai World Cup card. Fourteen top class runners line up here, rated 110 and above. Three are rated 122 and the brilliant mare Ouija Board (GB) is not one of those. At 117, she is ranked only 5th in this strong field, despite her Gr1 victory at Sha-Tin last time out.
Heart’s Cry (JPN), Norse Dancer (IRE) and Relaxed Gesture (IRE) are the three top rated runners. Heart’s Cry (JPN) narrowly won a listed race in Japan last time out but was only narrowly touched off by Alkaased at Gr1 level before that, with Ouija Board (GB) two lengths behind him. Norse Dancer (IRE) has poor recent form and will have to do a lot to justify his rating. Relaxed Gesture (IRE) arrives off a big win in a Canadian Gr1 following narrow defeats by Better Talk Now and King’s Drama in USA Gr1’s.
Next up is Alexander Goldrun (IRE) at 119, the other mare in the field. In September, she was narrowly beaten by Oratorio but has failed to follow up that good performance more recently. South Africa’s hopes lie with the Mike De Kock trio of Falstaff (IRE), Greys Inn (USA) and Oracle West (SAF). Falstaff (IRE), rated 113, has done well in his three starts in Dubai since moving to the De Kock yard but appears to be the least fancied of the three. Oracle West (SAF), rated 116, is probably the most improved runner in Dubai this season, having won his last three starts including a Gr3 last time out over this trip. Marwing has, however, elected to ride Greys Inn (USA). After a disappointing trip down to Australia, he returned to racing in Dubai off a three month break, failing by half a length in a Gr3 over a distance short of his best. Connections will be hopeful that the run is a sign that he is returning to the form that saw him run world champion Vengeance Of Rain to a neck in Hong Kong.
The ones to beat here seem to be Heart’s Cry (JPN), Relaxed Gesture (IRE) and Ouija Board (GB) but my heart will be with Greys Inn (USA) and Oracle West (SAF).
Dubai Duty Free – Gr1 T8.89F/1777M – $5m
The second of the $5m turf races is another high quality and competitive event with the 16 runners rated 112 to 123. One of the drawcards for the event is what appears to be a world first: Perfect Promise (SAF) and Irridiscence (SAF) could be the first full sisters to compete in a Gr1 event, and they are the only two fillies in the race.
Perfect Promise (SAF), rated 112, recently became the first South African bred horse to win a Gr1 in Australia when she had Fields Of Omagh (AUS), rated 116, behind her. The gelding did turn the tables next time out but there doesn’t seem to be much between them. It’s possible that today’s extra ground may favour Fields Of Omagh (AUS) though. Irridescence (SAF), rated 115, is one of Mike De Kock’s two runners in the field. I was a little surprised that Marwing chose to ride her ahead of Tyson (SAF), but the feeling seems to be that Tyson (SAF) has found his place in the rankings while Irridescence (SAF) is younger and improving, and that Tyson (SAF) would prefer 10 furlongs. Irridescence (SAF) came off a break of more than seven months to win a listed stakes in Dubai for US-based Team Valor. She is a Gr1 winner in South Africa. Tyson (SAF) won his first two starts in Dubai before disappointing last time out but does appear to have run to his rating. There isn’t much between Tyson (SAF) and Seihali (IRE), rated 115, on their two meetings in Dubai. The other South African trained entrant is Linngari (IRE), rated 115, who has won both his starts in Dubai at Gr3 and Gr2 level.
Japan is represented by Asakusa Den’en (GB) and Hat Trick (JPN), both rated 118 and Gr1 winners in recent starts. Bullish Luck (USA), rated 115, also arrives from the east. On their meeting in December, Hat Trick (JPN) may be the best of the three, though there isn’t much between them. Russian Pearl (NZ), rated 116, is another arriving from Hong Kong. He disappointed last time out but was twice under three lengths off Vengeance Of Rain last year over 10 furlongs.
David Junior (USA) is the highest rated runner at 123, following his Gr1 win over Pride at Newmarket over 10 furlongs. Valixir (IRE) is second highest at 121. He made a moderate return after a four month break and wasn’t in the best of form, though at the highest level, in his three previous starts. The USA sends Host (CHI), rated 116, The Tin Man (USA) and Whilly (IRE), both rated 115. Host (CHI) is a Gr1 winner but has been below best of late. The Tin Man (USA) has won his last two but steps up in class here. Whilly (IRE) improved last time out but seems to be about as good as The Tin Man (USA) and may have some work to do at this level. Finally, there is Touch Of Land (FR), rated 115. This entire finished under 3 lengths off Vegeance Of Rain in December before arriving in Dubai and recording a good win over this trip at Gr2 level.
This race looks extremely competitive with every entrant having some sort of claim and none looking unbeatable. David Junior (USA) may prefer extra, and Valixir (IRE) looks off form, leaving the way wide open for the lower rated competitors.
Fields Of Omagh (AUS) looks perfectly suited to the trip and must have a big chance of retaining the title for Australia . Linngari (IRE) and Touch Of Land (FR) have been impressive in Dubai with the former being my selection to win. As with an earlier race, my heart will be with the SAF-breds, perhaps a nail-biter between the two fillies, or Tyson (SAF) finding a good pace playing into his hands.
Dubai World Cup – Gr1 D10F/2000M – $6m
The horse to beat in this years richest race must be Godolphin’s Electrocutionist (USA). A multiple Gr1 winner on the turf, and highest rated at 121, he made his return to racing after more than four months when trying the dirt for the first time in Dubai. He won most impressively by seven lengths in a Gr2 and it’s going to take a good one to beat him.
The USA will be hoping that Brass Hat (USA) will be that good one. He was an easy winner at Gr1 level last time out on a sloppy and has won his last three. He is rated 118, along with the Japanese entry, Kane Hekili (JPN), who has won three of his last four as well, also including a Gr1.
Maraahel (IRE), rated 120, has finished third in his last four starts against very good sorts, including Vengeance Of Rain, David Junior, Mullins Bay, and Electrocutionist (USA). Those were all turf races though.
The balance of the 11 horse field all appear held on some line of form but those four runners, though the American contingent of Choctaw Nation (USA), Magna Graduate (USA), Super Frolic (USA) and Wilko (USA) all look capable of big performances. My selection must be Electrocutionist (USA) to claim back the World Cup for Godolphin after being in USA hands for the last two seasons.