The Summer Native Special
Nice little Stakes race we have on the card here in Mexico this week. Not a big field, a competitive one which means you should get a decent payoff on any filly in the race. Today we feature ‘The Summer Native Special,’ a mile and one sixteenth for some hopefully rising 3 year old fillies on the dirt. Not a big purse today for this one, but it would be a nice payday for these trainers nonetheless. Let’s get to it.
(PP1 – 5/2) Amazing Discovery(IRE), of the Isittrue stable, is one of the top three selections according to the morning line. This Galileo(IRE) X Gone West X Pine Bluff filly is the second highest ranked Dirt Classic filly in the race currently holding the # 45 ranking with 20 Stakes points earned. She has a 1st and 3rd place finish in 4 career routes. She is making a big step down in company today since her last two races have been against Graded company. Amazing Discovery(IRE) ran 3rd in her FTO as a 3 year old in the Santa Jezebel Stakes (G3) firing a 91 SP #. She is a very consistent upper 80 to low 90 SP # filly. She has also fired the highest career SP # of any filly in the race. She is not the only one to consider in this field, but she makes a big case for a top three finish today.
(PP2 – 10/1) MMM Grid Girls, of the Fil stable, is today’s long shot. This Minardi X Formula One X Senor Speedy filly has never run a route in her career making her not only the long shot but also my X Factor. You never know how a horse will respond in a race they have never run before, but I don’t like the fact that she is making this maiden voyage against Stakes company. As a 2 year old sprinter, MMM Grid Girls ran a high of 70 SP #, but as a 3 year old that number has jumped into the 80’s. If she can get the distance she could be a nice play at these odds.
(PP3 – 2/1) That Right(IRE), of the Super12 stable, takes the honor of morning line favorite. This Giant’s Causeway(IRE) X Fappiano X Roberto filly ran in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly (G1) last year and finished up about mid-pack as she fired an 85 SP #. That Right(IRE) is the highest ranked Dirt Classic filly in the field, currently holding the # 37 ranking with 26 Stakes points. She has hit the board in half of her 6 career routes with 2 wins. That Right(IRE) has won every lower level Stakes race she entered that was not in Graded company. Being a very deep closer, look for her to keep that win streak alive as they come flying down the stretch. Just don’t look for any turn signals when she is changing lanes as she will be too busy kicking up dirt. Can’t see her missing the board in this one.
(PP4 – 5/1) Arrivals, of the Graz628 stable, will be making her Stakes debut today. This A.P. Indy X Arazi X Alysheba filly has only run two routes and barely missed having her picture taken her LTO as she was flying down the stretch trying to catch the winner and just ran out of ground. I am not sure if I am reading too much into her race history, but it appears as if she runs a mid 80 SP # then has a race in the low 70’s then bounces back for another mid 80. If that is the case today, Arrivals will not be competitive in this field. Too much to question with this filly for me to think she will hit the board. She is stepping up in class without an allowance win under her belt. She also runs big then flounders then runs big again. She needs more consistency. I would be surprised if she can compete here.
PP5 – 4/1) Smart Phyllis, of the Chuck stable, will need to use that cranium wisely today as she joins a tough group of closers. She will need to make her move at just the right time to be a competitor in this one today since she is not a proven distance filly. This Smarty Jones X Stravinsky X Timeless Moment filly has only run two career routes, those being her last two trips. No stranger to this track, Smart Phyllis has competed here in Mexico three other times but has not been able to find the winner’s circle. She has run two races so far this year and improved upon her SP # from her first mile to the second. Today she looks to continue that upward SP # climb and maybe find the winner’s circle. Smart Phyllis may not find the winner’s circle or hit the board, but I love a filly that is improving. Tough call here. What do you think?
(PP6 – 5/2) Glorious Morning, of the Seekin49er stable, is another morning line top three choice. This Johannesburg X Sadler’s Wells X Buckpasser filly’s mom gave birth to none other than Dirty Deputy back in 2000. Dirty Deputy has won 8 of 31 races and is also a Stakes winner. The Seekin49er stable has hopes that Glorious Morning can be even better than her older brother. Not a bad expectation considering she has never finished worse than 2nd in her 3 career routes. She is making a jump into Stakes company today, but I can’t see any fault with this placement. In her last two races, Glorious Morning has fired a 90 and 91 SP # just missing the winner’s circle in both. Today is a shorter race than her last two trips, but if she can stay true to recent form she will break her Stakes cherry today.
Bigbaba