Skills In Magic In Speed Filled All Your Base

The translation of the Japanese video game Zero Wing contained some delightful English prose, including “You have no chance to survive make your time,” “Somebody set us up the bomb,” and what many consider the finest line since the Elizabethan era, “All your base are belong to us.” 

And so here we are in Victoria for the sixth running of the $500,000 Grade I All Your Base Are Belong to Us Stakes for three year olds going nine furlongs on a firm turf course.

The race attracted only one top ten classic turf three year old, the talented Skills in Magic, but it is that time of year where a promising two year old can emerge as a dominating three year old, so the field deserves a close look:

1. Tricky Green (Greenwood Lake x Green Dancer) is coming off three straight thirds in one turn stakes, and the Graywolf10 (12%) trainee has shown steady improvement over his past four tries.  In his two previous route tries he ran last, however.  Already making his fifth start of 2006.

2. Also making her fifth start of the year and already her 13^th lifetime start is BigTate02’s (5%) Gran Fern (Hansel x Storm Cat).  She seems ambitiously placed against the boys today, especially as she hasn’t cracked a speed figure in the 80’s yet and as she finished last in her only route try and fourth of five in her lone turf try.  Jockey is off to a good start in 2006.

3. He got burned up in an early speed duel last time in the GI Brian Classic and finished well behind Skills in Magic, but Clemstone (Ballingary x Gone West) finished second in the GI Japan Racing Association the time before that.  Always prominent early, the Lou64 (10%) trained colt will be firing early again today.  The bad news is there is a lot of early speed in this field.  Good news is he the talented jockey N Hartel to try to hold him together.

4. Bewitch’s (14%) Third Offer (Generous x  Roll On Roberto) is four for eight in turf sprints and tries two turns for the second time.  There are reasons to be optimistic.  One: when he tried a route before he showed an improved speed figure which regressed when he went back to a sprint.  Two: Generous’s get have shown a distinct preference for routes.  Three: he has shown an ability to stalk, and the pace scenario sets up for that sort.  A tempting 12-1.

5. In the money in five of six turf starts, Mister Migrane (Pulpit x Indian Ridge) has been earning a lot of purse money for trainer UncleBucky (7%) without winning.  It’s troubling to see slower speed figures as a three year old than Migrane earned as a two year old.  Faded badly last time, and the pace scenario doesn’t look favorable for him here.

6. Listen to the Lion (Rock of Gibraltar x Irish River) won graded turf routes in his last race as a two year old and in his first as a three year old.  If he was coming into this off those efforts, the Super10 (24%) trained colt would be at odds far less than 9-1 in here.  But his last race, as the second choice in an Equinics stakes, was terrible.  If you want to forgive it, there are excuses: the course was yielding, the field was crowded with 19 runners.  So there you have it.  Generous odds if you throw out last race, downward form cycle if you don’t.

7. Japans Last Hope already has six wins in 11 turf starts, including a four for 10 record in stakes.  LoDog20 (11%) trained him to an upset win in the GIII Alec and Stephen Stakes last time.  The speed figure makes him a player here if he can continue the improvement.  While he faded badly in his lone route, that was the GI G.S.R. Diamond, which came up awfully tough.  If he can handle a route, this might be race for him.

8. No Help Wanted (Ten Most Wanted x Belong To Me) got caught in a speed duel in the GIII Frio Frio Mile last time and faded.  We should expect improvement off that effort and he won two straight stakes prior to that.  The tough part is the three times he’s been challenged for the lead, he has faded.  He earned his two of three  record in turf routes by finding an easy lead, and that won’t happen today for the FabFarms (18%) trainee.

9. Skills in Magic (Denon x Sadler’s Wells) has already earned over $750,000 for Peeps9 (16%) in just ten races.  His earnings per start are more that twice any other’s in here.  Only out of the money twice before and just missed a triple digit speed figure last time in winning the GI Brian Classic.  While most others in here haven’t tried nine furlongs yet, he already has shown he loves the distance.  On top of that, he is a late runner in a race filled with early pace.  Legitimate favorite at the top of his game.  Jockey is on fire in 2006 if Skills needed any more help.

10. BBors Baby Tune (Skip Away x Mtoto) showed some routing ability in his second race early in his two year old campaign and then not so much a few races later.  Trainer BBor3 (15%) has been running him in sprints and he has been having success with a stalking style.  It’s time to try two turns again. Training move makes sense.

11. Isle of Revenge (Strong Hope x Nureyev) faded after dueling early last time in the same Equinics race as Listen to the Lion.  Does that sound familiar?  In the race before that he finished behind Clemstone.  In his favor, Braylee (15%) has trained him to a two of four record in turf routes, including a graded win at nine furlongs.  His three year old races haven’t been as good as his two year old races.  We don’t like that.

12. The third horse out of the Brian Classic, Able Giznad Ted (Macabe x Danzig), finished virtually tied with Clemstone but without the excuse of vying early.  The XTChamps (9%) trainee has since run a nice fourth as the second choice in a nine furlong stakes.  His best races have come when he runs close to the pace.

13. Two for two and making his stakes debut, Bootlegger (Empire Maker x Septieme Ciel) has speed figures competitive with the field a rallying style that fits this race.  Tesio (20%) made what looks like a shrewd entry with about twenty seconds to go before nominations closed.  Picks up a jockey off to a surprisingly good start in 2006.

14. Dessie Hollandia (Desert King x Sadler’s Wells) didn’t take to the yielding surface as the third choice in an Equinics race last time.  Before that he had some nice route tries for Rosemount (15%), including a second to Listen to the Lion in the GIII Apparently Juvenile at nine furlongs.  Looks like a player here.

Morning Line selection: 9-11-(4,6,7,10,14)

Timmns picks: 9-4-6-13