#1 Ranked Filly to be Upset?
The SWALE Stakes
Grade IIISeven Furlongs on Fast Dirt
$125,000
All Horses, 3 years old
Ah, the perfect time to come to Florida at the end of a long winter. We are getting set to run down the SWALE Grade III Stakes Race and it should be a beauty. The weather is cooperating as it should in Florida so we should have a lightning track. We’ve got a nicely matched field with no real stand out among them. Several are in the top 50 at this age and distance. Let’s take a look:
1 – ASTRONOMICAL UNIT ODDS OWNER WIN% JOCKEY WIN% TOP SPEED AVG SPEED RANK 8/1 RockRace 6.2% L.Buchta 24% 96.2 87.9 23
(HIGH YIELD x CHROMITE x BABY SLEWY) She’s done just about everything that trainer RockRace has asked of her. She only finished out of the top three one time on dirt and even that was a respectable fifth in a stakes race. She has really come on her last two races though and may be a horse to be reckoned with for this race. Her last outing, she finished second in a GIII against the colts so her potential is “Astronomical”. She has one of the track’s hottest riders in the irons so I expect her to hit the board.
| 2 – SPITEFUL | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/1 | Escapade | 50.0% | C.Faucher | 18% | 93.4 | 83.9 | 117 |
(SPEIGHTSTOWN x A.P. INDY x MR. PROSPECTOR) This little filly is out of broodmare INDYMOODFORLOVE which has to be on e of the greatest horse names ever. She has made her momma proud too by finishing in the money in seven of nine races. She also has nearly half a million dollars in earnings. She still is taking a bit of a step up here over what she’s been racing against. The only other Graded race she was in didn’t go well. I’m sure that trainer Escapade and jockey Faucher are working out those kinks and ready for better results this time around.
| 3 – CRYPTO FLOW | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/1 | KYClocker | 0.0% | G.Fiddler | 18% | 93.6 | 87.5 | 7 |
(CRYPTOCLEARANCE x CARSON CITY x SUNDAY SILENCE) Stepping back from an exhaustive schedule that included four out of five GIs and a couple of mile plus races, this filly out of Flow Futuristic has put up some nice speed figures and run some nice races but only has one trip to the winner’s circle during that stretch. Trainer KYClocker is expecting big things from his prize filly this year and this would be a good time to turn things around. Fiddler is up and a good one, the step back from GI and a nice looking race at the Equinics all bode well for this filly.
| 4 – GIZNAD VICTORY T | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/1 | Performanc | 5.9% | O.Barrett | 9% | 90.8 | 84.3 | 59 |
(VICTORY SPEECH x DANZIG x DIXIELAND BAND) The filly with the unique name has been yo-yoing between good and bad races recently and at least this is supposed to be a good week. Trainer Performanc certainly hopes so as he has been pulling his hair out trying to figure out this young lady. It appears that he has settled on dirt sprints now and needs for his young filly to get serious and show what she is made of.
| 5 – SOOZ IS THE TRUTH | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/1 | Nin | 30.0% | W.Mayberry | 6% | 90.9 | 82.1 | 84 |
(TURBO STORM x WILD DEPUTY x SALT DOME) After a four race win streak, this filly has trainer Nin asking “What is the Truth?” about her racing. Her past two, she barely showed up and didn’t put forth much effort at all. After those two and jockey Mayberry’s poor showing so far this year, the prospects don’t look good here but she may be able to find the magic again.
| 6 – FUTURE DANCER | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/1 | Shaggy3 | 9.1% | A.Darling | 15% | 98.6 | 85.0 | 94 |
(SCRIMSHAW x FUTURE STORM x NICE DANCER) After a successful two year old campaign full of the usual bouncing around with different distances and such, this nice looking chestnut colt started off 2006 with a bang with a big win and a 98 SPF in the Mr. West Cap Stakes. She kind of makes you think of Timbuk3’s old song, “The Futures So Bright, I Gotta Wear Shades”. Her future is looking excellent and this would be a great place to start. Darling is one of the best jocks at the track and I think the Morning Line is being generous with her odds and I may have to lay a shekel or two on this one.
| 7 – DUBAI NIGHTS | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/1 | Peopleater | 0.0% | V.Roberts | 0% | 91.0 | 86.6 | 237 |
(E DUBAI x STORM CAT x RAHY) Lightly raced for a three year old with only six races but has three wins. None of those however, have been a stakes win and she is taking a big step up here. She has Roberts up in the saddle who has been stone cold this year and has yet to win a race. Trainer Peopleater has the odds stacked against him in this race I’m afraid.
| 8 – DOCTOR SPEIGHTS | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/1 | IrishCrown | 33.3% | A.McKellar | 8% | 95.4 | 86.0 | 38 |
(PLEASANTLY PERFECT x FORTY NINER x STORM BIRD) I don’t know about you but I sure expected to see some Speightstown in this lineage when I looked at the Daily Racing Form. That is about the only disappointing thing that you will find with this filly out of successful Broodmare Dr. Jo Ann. She’s won her last two although they were not against this level of competition. She is certainly starting her three year old campaign off on the right foot and trainer IrishCrown couldn’t be happier with his filly. This would be a great place for a coming out party for the DOCTOR.
| 9 – DESERT LION(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/1 | SeaGypsy | 22.2% | W.Case | 13% | 91.7 | 91.7 | 510 |
(DESERT KING (IRE) x DYNAFORMER x AFLEET) Now here is an interesting filly. After running 9 straight on the grass with nice results including a couple of Stakes wins and getting into the top 50 in turf rankings, she turns to the dirt and runs what is conceivably her best race to date. She won easily and had her best SPF. That was a mile and she is dropping down a bit now. I hope you have a scorecard to keep track of all this as trainer SeaGypsy is making it pretty tough on this handicapper. I expect a good race out of the LION though.
| 10 -SLEW GULCH | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/1 | Ace3 | 13.3% | V.Gardner | 17% | 93.5 | 86.7 | 14 |
(GULCH x SEATTLE SLEW x PERSIAN BOLD(IRE)) I can tell you one filly that is glad that the Equinics are over with and that is SLEW GULCH. She had quite a streak going with four Stakes wins in a row before running into an off track where she finished a respectable second and then the Equinics happened. She stumbled out of the gate and was never a factor finishing much closer to last than she did the top three. It’s hard to say whether she was over-matched or just blown away from the huge crowds at that race. It is Ace3’s hope that she is back to her normal self this week. Gardner holding the reins should help.
| 11 – THNXMSSLEW | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/1 | PolandFarm | 0.0% | A.Blackmore | 19% | 96.2 | 86.7 | 1 |
(FORTY NINER x SEATTLE SLEW x MR. PROSPECTOR) The number one ranked three year old on dirt sprints and with good reason. This nice Forty Niner filly will probably go over $1 million in earnings this race after finishing first and second in her last two which were GIs. I’m a little surprised that this filly has never ventured onto the grass as she sure does love the mud with her two best SPFs on off tracks. The weather here looks good though and so does she as she has really been on her game lately and looks to be one of the top three year old fillies all year. You have to wonder that she is so low in the Morning Line. Blackmore proves quite capable in the saddle.
| 12 – TORTURED VISION | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | SimonD5 | 15.0% | J.Nason | 13% | 98.7 | 88.8 | 22 |
(VISION AND VERSE x CAPOTE x MR. PROSPECTOR) This filly from lightly used sire Vision and Verse seems to be getting hot at the right time. She won her past two stakes races and with near triple digit SPFs. She has lacked consistency to a point but that is to be expected from a juvenile. Now it is time to step it up and show what she is made of. She can make her Daddy proud here and make him a lot more valuable in future breedings as well. Trainer SimonD5 has brought her along just right and will be whispering to jockey Nason just what he wants to happen as the race goes off.
| 13 – HUSKER DU | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/1 | MikeHusker | 0.0% | M.Anderson | 8% | 89.6 | 84.8 | 56 |
(EMPIRE MAKER x DEPUTY MINISTER x NATIVE CHARGER) Four of the last five for this chestnut filly have been Graded Stakes and she has certainly held her own. She has not however, been able to quite get to the 90 plus SPF that it is going to take to win a Graded Race here. You have to wonder if she wouldn’t be better served racing in regular Stakes races and cleaning up the victories there. You have to give trainer MikeHusker credit though, as he feels that the better competition will make his filly better in the long run. She needs to step it up a notch to compete in this field.
| 14 – GIANT RUN(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/1 | Surfer | 11.1% | B.Boggie | 8% | 96.9 | 89.2 | 174 |
(GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x GONE WEST x DANZIG) A rare horse indeed that seems quite comfortable on either surface, at any distance and even the odd off track, this young lass has done just that and has really stepped it up her last two. They were both second place but not by much and with good speed and closing power. Trainer Surfer has been moving her around but she seems comfortable most anywhere. She has the right temperament to do as she’s asked and she does it quite well. Certainly a possibility here but she has to overcome the outside post.
Morning Line = 12-14-1-10-11
Yoss Tipsheet = 12-1-6-4
Paz Picks = 12-11-1-6
A fairly even race with some really nice looking fillies, I like FUTURE DANCER to finish fourth. I may regret this but I’m putting ASTRONOMICAL UNIT down for third. She may finish much higher and there ain’t a long way to go up. I feel that THNXMSSLEW TORTURED VISION . I just think that Vision is the hot horse right now and no one is going to catch her.
Good luck to all runners!
Paz