No One Stands Out From the Rest

Grade III                  Six furlongs          Fast Dirt
$125,000                 All horses, 3 year old         

A full field of fourteen covering six furlongs is always a challenge to handicap.  After evaluating  this field- one could say that the selection process is even a bit more hazy, as no sure fire favorite appears from the haze.  All we need to add to this task is a typical day of Northern California weather, the both the runners and the handicappers may be moving about in  a ‘fog’. 

The ownership of each of these fourteen runners are looking for that performance that will pull away from the rest of the field, with hopes that the sun will shine on them throughout their three years old campaign.

As for the 2005 Field for LOST IN THE FOG Stakes (Gr. III):

Orientate x Smoke Glacken

Winner of four of five career starts- lone lost was his only stakes event. His first start as a three year old resulted in a gate to wire allowance victory, but he may find the level of talent in this field a bit too much.

Best of the Bests(IRE) x El Condor Pasa

Winner of the Alypain Brain Cap two races back- he will need to duplicate that performance to be close in this large field.

Chicago Six x Avenue of Flags

He likes to break and settle mid-pack and rally in the stretch.  The pace may be brisk in this race, but will he have enough to fire when asked?  Six furlongs may not be his best distance to run against this company.

Gone West x Sadler’s Wells

Four trips resulting in two wins and a couple of ‘place’ finishes.  He ships in from California –off of a nice win in the six furlong (1:10 1/5) ‘Bear Pup Stakes’.

Apitude x Forty Niner

Toss out his grade I attempt on a sloppy track, and a mile trip in a grade II, and he appears to be better than his odds.  His last performance (Jove Trick Challenge)was impressive enough  to justify a trip across the states from Maryland.

Mr. Livingston x Forty Niner

Out of one of El Prado’s lesser known offspring- he was a stakes win several weeks back as a two year old, but has shown little promise since.  He has faded backwards in each of his last three outings, and this field may be strong enough for that streak to continue.

Fort Wood x Kylian

Ships in from a restricted allowance win.  His previous attempts in stakes events has led to disappointments. 

War Chant x Fusaichi Pegasus

Also ran in the ‘Bear Pup Stakes’ and rallied strongly to finish runner-up to THANE.  He is a late runner, which should be a concern at six furlongs.  His win in ‘Ignorant Gin Stakes’ as a two year old was impressive enough for ownership to mount their hopes on a possible repeat.

Star Programmer x Dixieland Band

This will be his third race in four weeks.  He, too, ran in the ‘Bear Pup Stakes’, but unlike his counterparts in this event, he was not a factor.  He has worked in another trip since then- a decent runner up finish in a restricted allowance trip.  The current schedule that ownership has him on may start showing some effects on him.  He will be another that will back lay off the early pace.

E Dubai x Storm Cat

Only one bad race out of five- he will be running at the shortest distance of his career.  He has handled slightly longer events well, and his front running style may serve him well here.  He may be one of the ones that will be pushing for the lead, and backers are hopeful that he can carry himself the entire distance.

Afleet x Academy Award

Won his last outing – the ‘Rickety Cat Special Stakes’ over such opponents as DUBAI NIGHTS and NIMROD’S FORTRESS.  He will be pressuring for the lead early on and could play a factor to the wire.

Charismatic x Wild Again

Even though he has been winless in his last two trips, both races were impressive enough to earn attention from the handicappers.  He is the morning line odds favorite, but don’t bet the house.  He will be a threat, but race remains open.

Silver Deputy x Mountain Cat

He ships in from Finland with a two race ‘stakes’ winning streak.  Except for his poor performance in the “Happy Birthday Stakes”, he has always run in contention  and that tendency may continue in this event.

Event of the Year x Sovereign Dancer

Ships in from ME after a gate to wire allowance win.  Even though he has handled greater distances, ownership has elected to gradually reduce his distances in his recent outings.  With this size of field, and others that like to run on the lead, I would expect him to be stalking the early pace.  The long back stretch may give him enough time to work himself inward to save some ground.

Like what the morning line odds-maker experienced, this race is a difficult one to handicap.  You have several that like to pressure the early pace, while other contenders that will be aiming for a strong stretch drive to pull into contention.  However, none of the contenders come in with that recent trip that separates them from the rest of the field.

My selections are:  THANE      APT TO FLY              DUBAI NIGHTS