The Equinics John DeKeyser
Grade 1 Stakes
A mile on Yeilding Turf
$1,000,000
Three Year Old Fillies
It’s the second race on the card but could well be the race of the day. There is nothing more exciting than a wide open race card. We certainly have one here with fourteen of the twenty runners ranked in the Top 118 among three year old Turf Fillies. Throw in the fact that the weatherman thinks we may be getting some rain for the race and it is anyone’s game. The hopes and dreams of the twenty Residencies will all be at the top of the charts and with kind of field, they have a justified right to feel that way. They may need to offer oxygen in the owners boxes as the finish could be breathtaking for some and just hard to take for others. There are some really beautiful and talented fillies here so let’s take a look: | 1 – CHERYLN BG | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
| 27/1 | TheBoz | 10.0% | T Small | 23% | 84.1 | 76.8 | 38 |
| Epsom Downs Residency | RACES | WINS | STAKES | WINS | SIRE | DS | DDS | BMARE |
|---|
| 12 | 4 | 4 | 1 | Cahill Road | Carnegie | Habitat | General Carnage |
Her past five races have yo-yoed between excellent and just okay. According to the formula, this is to be an okay week. Everything else about this big filly is okay too. She’s thrown some nice SPFs during her races and has won a third of them. She has one race on an off track and finished third. Epsom Downs will be cheering her on in a big way as they feel strongly that this is one of their top chances today. Trainer TheBoz has been excited about his prize filly’s prospects all week and could hardly contain himself around the barn areas. Hopefully someone will be with him if this filly finishes in first. | 2 – NEEDSMORECOWBELL(GB) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
| 15/1 | Singhis | 17.4% | J Jubel | 10% | 85.7 | 82.5 | 230 |
| GSR | RACES | WINS | STAKES | WINS | SIRE | DS | DDS | BMARE |
|---|
| 10 | 3 | 8 | 2 | Beat Hollow | Lear Fan | Alleged | None |
A British bred that is running her first race in 2006. Her interesting name is certainly not descriptive of this fine brown young lady as she is far from a plodder. She stretched it out to a mile in two of her final races of her two year old campaign and seemed to like the distance. She has an inexperienced jockey up in Jubel with only one year under his belt but trainer Singhis has confidence in both the youngsters. GSR residency is known for their strong crop of three year olds and this one may be just rounding into form. | 3 – BENEFACTRESS(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
| 9/1 | Hornedfrog | 13.0% | D Evans | 24% | 91.3 | 83.4 | 11 |
| The Kentucky Horsemen | RACES | WINS | STAKES | WINS | SIRE | DS | DDS | BMARE |
|---|
| 8 | 6 | 6 | 4 | Generous | Seeking The Gold | Storm Cat | Curious Cat |
A surprise to some that this is the Morning Line favorite with all of the highly ranked fillies around, but not too those in the know. This Irish bred filly has really been flying lately and has won three of her past four and thrown out 90 SPFs like they were nothing. Toss in the fact that both of her forays on off tracks ended up in the winners circle and you will understand the rush to the ticket window with Benefactress’ name on bettors lips. The Kentucky Horsemen are putting a lot of their chips on this fine young filly as well and will be cheering on trainer HornedFrog in a big way. She should be in the mix at the end but the biggest worry is her drop-back style from the inside position. Jockey Evans needs to keep her clean. | 4 – BLACKEYED PEACE | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
| 11/1 | Slipknot22 | 17.6% | SL Ledwith | 30% | 90.3 | 81.4 | 25 |
| NorthWest Racing Circuit | RACES | WINS | STAKES | WINS | SIRE | DS | DDS | BMARE |
|---|
| 10 | 4 | 8 | 3 | Peace Rules | Sadler’s Wells | Carson City | Wait And Bleed |
I really love the name of this chestnut filly. I really like they way she’s been racing lately as well. Her last two look like the stuff that champions are made of and she had a first and just barely second. She had an 87 SPF and a 90 in her last outing. She seems to be getting stronger at the beginning of this three year old campaign and looks to do some damage. She likes the mile and trainer Slipknot has her trained tight and ready to run. She also won her only race on an off track. Ledwith is one of the best and this tandem may make NW Racing very happy this race. | 5 – TETE WEAR BOOTS(AUS) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
| 27/1 | Sabbath2 | 20.3% | C Knauer | 27% | 83.4 | 77.3 | 349 |
| Viking Racing | RACES | WINS | STAKES | WINS | SIRE | DS | DDS | BMARE |
|---|
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Testa Rossa | Nashwan | Storm Bird | Nasha Watete |
I’m afraid that Sabbath2’s filly has an uphill battle this week. It seems as if almst everything is against her. No Stakes races, lightly raced and her worst race to date was on an off track. She does have Knauer in the stirrups which will help some and Sabbath2 certainly knows how to bring home a winner. I’m sure that Viking Racing hasn’t given up on her this race. Perhaps she can return the confidence. | 6 – NOB HILL | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
| 10/1 | NovaNora | 9.4% | P Harzheim | 32% | 89.6 | 85.1 | 5 |
| Vermont | RACES | WINS | STAKES | WINS | SIRE | DS | DDS | BMARE |
|---|
| 9 | 5 | 8 | 4 | Miesque’s Son | With Approval | Theatrical | Frisco Project |
Nob Hill had a tough stretch at the end of her two year old season after looking fantastic at the beginning. She has started this year with an impressive win in the Jess Shark stakes and trainer NovaNora hopes that she is back on track. This will be her first foray on an off track and you just never know how that will affect a young horse. Vermont has high hopes that this beautiful light grey filly can bring them home a winner. A lot will depend on how she likes the mud wrestling. | 7 – JOE’S LOOP | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
| 31/1 | AJR13 | 16.1% | J Stivers | 25% | 82.9 | 79.1 | 363 |
| GREAT PLAINS | RACES | WINS | STAKES | WINS | SIRE | DS | DDS | BMARE |
|---|
| 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | Seeking A Home | Event of the Year | Policeman | Walter’s Loop |
Great Plains entry in this race is another that has never seen an off track. It appears that she will this weekend. She also is going to have to worry about trying to get to the front from the middle of the pack. She loves the lead and this could be to her advantage as she will be kicking the mud up in the others faces. Stivers wants to keep his silks clean as well and will gladly move her to the lead. Trainer AJR13 has lots of decisions to make for this run. | 8 – PLEASEREMEMBERME | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
| 11/1 | Desperado | 21.4% | G Dobbs | 0% | 94.2 | 88.7 | 70 |
| Minnesota | RACES | WINS | STAKES | WINS | SIRE | DS | DDS | BMARE |
|---|
| 8 | 4 | 5 | 2 | Vindication | Nureyev | Trempolino | Things Change |
My other favorite name in this race, this filly has only finished out of the money one time in her eight races. Unfortunately, it was her last time out. Fortunately it was he first race over a mile. Unfortunately she faded badly at the end. Fortunately, this race is only a mile. Unfortunately, she has never run on an off track so we really don’t know what to expect her. She likes the lead so once again, that may be to her advantage as leaders draw less mud. Trainer Desperado got jockey Dobbs who is still looking for his first win this year. | 9 – TENACIOUS V | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
| 10/1 | Peeps4 | 17.5% | B Schardein | 35% | 90.4 | 88.0 | 2 |
| GR Simsters | RACES | WINS | STAKES | WINS | SIRE | DS | DDS | BMARE |
|---|
| 9 | 4 | 4 | 2 | Vindication | Lear Fan | Buckpasser | None |
You have to wonder how many times all of these owners shied away from off tracks all year and wish now that they had tried one. Tenacious V is another filly that has excellent credentials but has only run on firm tracks. She is the number two ranked three year old and one of the favorites here. After winning the DelPenn race, she tried to go to Japan and run a 9F race but shied away from the distance. Back to a more manageable distance, f she can navigate the mud she should be in the mix at the end. | 10 – ASCENDANCY | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
| 14/1 | LBGong | 25.0% | Z Kentucky | 20% | 90.2 | 87.1 | 100 |
| Ireland | RACES | WINS | STAKES | WINS | SIRE | DS | DDS | BMARE |
|---|
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | Rainbow Quest | Sadler’s Wells | Le Fabuleux | Firebird |
LBGong’s filly has closed well her past two races and her young racing career looks like it may be ready to take off a bit. What better place? She is untested in the mud but her owner know how to get a horse ready for anything. Irelands res would like to see her ASCEND a bit in the rankings as she is on the edge of the Top 100. Kentucky is up and has looked good this season and his 18 plus years of experience will help this young filly. She’s shown she has the speed but she may want to stay a bit closer to the leaders here. | 11 – CARSON TOUCH(NZ) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
| 14/1 | HolyChow | 10.8% | H Harzheim | 21% | 90.2 | 82.4 | 7 |
| Alpine Turf Club | RACES | WINS | STAKES | WINS | SIRE | DS | DDS | BMARE |
|---|
| 9 | 2 | 7 | 1 | Zabeel | Sadler’s Wells | Carson City | Welldone Carson |
After a top notch juvenile campaign, this New Zealand bred started off a bit rocky this year with an uninspired outing in the I’m Slew Too challenge Stakes. She was fifth in a seven horse field there. She had the lead as usual but seemed to stumble a bit down the stretch. This is one of the rare horses in this race that has run an off track race and she came in third. Between that and having crafty jockey Harzheim in the saddle, this duo could do some damage. There are a lot of front runners in the race and it remains to be seen if they will wear each other out. | 12 – JUMP KRIS | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
| 18/1 | ADS1 | 12.3% | T Loesch | 23% | 85.4 | 83.9 | 344 |
| The CR Racers | RACES | WINS | STAKES | WINS | SIRE | DS | DDS | BMARE |
|---|
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Jump Start | Kris S | Raise A Native | Maximum Overdriven |
Only three races but the CR Racers entry has shown improvement as she stretched a bit further each time. She is stretching again as this will be her first mile. Trainer ADS1 should learn a lot about his filly here with the off track, mile distance and level of competition. She generally likes to tuck behind the leaders and that may be a good spot to be in during this race. | 13 – SHEGOES | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
| 28/1 | DJones4321 | 4.4% | F Marshall | 14% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1 – Fun And Friends Stable Club | RACES | WINS | STAKES | WINS | SIRE | DS | DDS | BMARE |
|---|
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Roar | Theatrical | Kris S | None |
This filly is a mud lover. She has run only once on an off track and it is her lone win of two races. It is just that kind of stat that can throw a real monkey wrench in a handicappers work. She came from way back to win last outing but it was a maiden race. It sure remains to be seen if she can do it against the prime time ladies. DJones4321 believes in his filly and thinks that she has what it takes. We will know more about that after this race. | 14 – KISS OR KILL | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
| 11/1 | Biznes | 14.9% | P Bangs | 17% | 90.4 | 84.2 | 118 |
| Queensland | RACES | WINS | STAKES | WINS | SIRE | DS | DDS | BMARE |
|---|
| 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | Milwaukee Brew | Conquistador Cielo | AP Indy | None |
I know that trainor Biznes will be keeping an eye on skies and praying for a let up in the forecast as his filly has run once on an off track and it was her worst race to date. She is one of the favorites in the race and looked excellent last time out in the Star Of Bethlehem stakes. P Bangs has led a lot of rides through the raindrops and his steady hand may be just what the doctor ordered. Queensland residency will be ready to drown their sorrows if their race is drowned by rain as this is one of their top chances during the races. | 15 – BIT OF A RUSE | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
| 12/1 | GradeOne | 23.9% | R Harzheim | 28% | 86.8 | 83.0 | 3 |
| DelPenn | RACES | WINS | STAKES | WINS | SIRE | DS | DDS | BMARE |
|---|
| 9 | 5 | 6 | 2 | Seeking The Gold | Danehill | Riverman | Danehill Reef |
Another favorite that may need to be outfitted with boots as her Momma always told her to not play in the rain. DelPenn and trainer GradeOne have to be praying for a dry track as this is one of the toughest fillies in the race. Her number three ranking will be on the line and she’d like to get back on the winning track. She had run three in a row earlier and still hasn’t slipped to anything below fourth in all of her turf races. Here’s hoping that the wet track isn’t a Bit of a Problem for Bit of a Ruse. | 16 – WELL BANDED | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
| 16/1 | Jimch11 | 14.7% | J Riggs | 11% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ohio Thoroughbred Racing | RACES | WINS | STAKES | WINS | SIRE | DS | DDS | BMARE |
|---|
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | Dixieland Band | Seeking the Gold | Boldnesian | None |
This chestnut filly is lightly raced and has never raced before on turf. She has however won on an off track and needs to capitalize on that experience here. Ohio TB Racing must have been one of those residencies that was praying for rain here in hopes that her rain experience might help. That remains to be seen and Jimch11 wants to make sure that jockey Riggs moves her to the rocking chair position just behind the leaders and let them beat each other up while she slips down the stretch ahead of the mud laden rear guard. | 17 – PARADISE | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
| 10/1 | OnTarget2 | 23.6% | K Ledwith | 26% | 90.1 | 83.0 | 41 |
| EAAA Racing | RACES | WINS | STAKES | WINS | SIRE | DS | DDS | BMARE |
|---|
| 9 | 6 | 7 | 5 | Gone West | Storm Cat | Pretense | Marc’s Storm |
One of the pre-race favorites this filly has been almost Paradise to owner and trainer OnTarget2. Her 6 wins in the past year are as good as anybody and her times have consistently improved. She has only run on dry tracks though and only once at a mile. She finished second there in a small field. She may be better served to stay in the long sprints but with Ledwith’s magic fingers holding the reins she should be lurking just behind the leaders as they make the final turn toward home. | 18 – URKO’S INSIDER(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
| 28/1 | EliteTeam | 17.0% | M Day | 18% | 84.0 | 78.1 | 113 |
| Benelux | RACES | WINS | STAKES | WINS | SIRE | DS | DDS | BMARE |
|---|
| 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | Desert King | Sadler’s Wells | Silver Hawk | Bastille Day Too |
The inside information on this Irish bred is that trainer EliteTeam and residency Benelux are quietly confident. As the week goes on it seems that more and more things are going in her favor. First of all, this filly is just outside the Top 100 in rankings. Very few of the horses ranked above her in this race are off track tested. She came in second in the Laced With Gold stakes two back on yielding turf. There are rumors going around that one of the favorites in the race has come up all but lame. She is a lead runner that benefits from a muddy track. Are there enough things lined up to win this race? There just might be. | 19 – CRYPTOMOON(SAF) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
| 23/1 | Funster | 16.1% | N Hartel | 19% | 81.5 | 76.4 | 175 |
| Down Under Racing | RACES | WINS | STAKES | WINS | SIRE | DS | DDS | BMARE |
|---|
| 9 | 3 | 4 | 0 | Victory Moon | Cryptoclearance | Tom Rolfe | Cash Clearance |
We are getting way on the outside of this 20 horse field now and it is going to be tough for another front runner to make it out front. Down Under Racing had hoped that this South African Bred would have been closer to the rail. Trainer Funster was disappointed with this post position as well. The only two that don’t seem to care are Cryptomoon and jockey Hartel who’s eight years of experience have seen plenty of bad draws. No off track experience, this race could be uphill for the big filly who will sink even further in the course than some of the lighter horses. | 20 – WHISTLE ON BY | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
| 21/1 | Be1stFarms | 15.6% | N Labreche | 24% | 84.8 | 81.2 | 52 |
| Nexis | RACES | WINS | STAKES | WINS | SIRE | DS | DDS | BMARE |
|---|
| 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | Smarty Jones | King of Kings | Danehill | King Of Danehill |
After seven races, like most of the Smarty Jones offspring, this chestnut filly is still trying to find herself. She has driven trainer Be1stFarms crazy trying to decide her preferred distance and surface. She has looked better lately at one mile turf races and her last one was on an off track where she finished second. She is way outside and likes to start in the back though and there is going to be a huge crowd and a lot of mud to overcome in this race. Nexis Racing will still be there to cheer her on!
Morning Line = 3-6-9-17-14
Yoss Tipsheet = 17-3-4-6
Paz Picks = 3-4-17-6-18
There are several problems to handicapping this race. Most of the field and especially the favorites have never run on an off track. Of the horses who have, most of them are not the top class of the field. Do they have enough to pick off the faves? There are a lot of front runners in the field as well. Does that help out the middle pack runners, especially if there is a lot of mud? For that reason, one of the longshots could actually win the race, for example a filly like 28/1 shot URKO’S INSIDER will find a way to use the favored off track and get into the top five . I feel that NOB HILL and PARADISE are too good and could come flying up at the end and pick off tiring frontrunners. They will fight it out for third and fourth. There are however two horses in this race where all the stars seem to be aligned. They like the off track and they are on top of their game coming into this race. I’m choosing BLACKEYED PEACE to burn up the stretch at the end but finish just a bit short in second place. The benefactor of all of the elements to this race is BENEFACTRESS and as long as she can get a clean ride she should get outside in the stretch and run to victory!
Good luck to all runners!
Paz