Isaac Murphy Himself Would Be Proud Of These 3YO Fillies

The Equinics are new to me.  It’s one of the Sim’s hallowed days, a day of Olympic-style racing in Vermont and Italy that celebrates residencies and the best horses in every classification imaginable.  I can’t imagine Katie Couric and Bob Costas talking about the finer points of the NWRC, the trivia tidbits behind how GSR came to pass, or the factoids about the gross national product of DelPenn.  I don’t believe that anyone would let Epic and Snowchief do an interpretive dance tribute to the sire Giant’s Causeway as residencies marched around the dirt track in Vermont with flags held high.  But when it comes to Equinics racing, the flesh tingles with anticipation.

In Vermont, the main Equinics events are on the dirt, and the attention here is focused on three-year-old fillies in the $500,000 Issac Murphy Stakes.  It’s a nine-furlong, restricted Grade I route, and it’s named for one of the best jockeys to ever get on a horse, a leading African-American jockey in a time when prejudice was still the acceptable standard of behavior in society.  Given recent events, such as the death of Coretta Scott King, and given that February is Black History Month, it seems especially fitting that this man receives his due from the Sim on a most special day of racing.

The entrants, in post position order:

1: Little Ghost (16-1) [Lemon Drop Kid x Raise A Native]

Trainer: greenappl2

Residency: The Kentucky Horsemen

Briefly: She’s 2-for-3, all races at British Columbia, including a stakes win, and makes her 2006 debut here.  Led at each call in her first two starts, but was a mild fourth last out.  Numbers are trending upward, her last out speed fig being an 88.  Sire could run all day, but rest of the pedigree does hint that there are limits, and she’s never been more than a mile.  Should like to have a share of the lead, and may get it all to herself from the rail, which should boost her chances of a positive impact.

2. Baldo Hollandia (14-1) [Pure Prize x Secretariat]

Trainer: rintintin

Residency: Benelux

Briefly: Won only her maiden at 2, but was a player on the graded circuit, with a second and a third in five graded starts.  She won her seasonal debut last out in Michigan, winning with a 95, a considerable improvement from her figs at the end of last season.  She doesn’t like to stray too far from the action on the front end, and distance shouldn’t have a negative impact on her chances.  Still, she’s just 2-for-8 lifetime.

3. Dixie Park (15-1) [Dixieland Band-Lois F, by Gone West]

Trainer: ashworth

Residency: CR Racers

Briefly: Well-bred filly has bloodlines of success, being a half-sister to graded winner Eden Park and listed winner PGA West.  Has a fine appreciation to come from well off the pace, as she did in her two wins.  She just missed in last fall’s Walnut Tree, finishing second in that Grade II, but hasn’t been able to replicate that effort since then in two other graded tries.  She makes her 2006 debut here, trying nine furlongs for the first time in a most competitive field.  The race appears at first look to be rather paceless, which could have an impact on her chances with that late kick.  Numbers have shown gradual improvement, with her last-out fig a 91, and she should continue to get better.

4. Northern Streak(AUS) (28-1) [Redoute’s Choice(AUS) x El Gran Senor]

Trainer: johnhoward

Residency: Queensland

Briefly: Sprinting filly has had her chance to become a star for three different trainers, but johnhoward might mark this as one of the best $10K claims in his career.  Was a middling sprinter on dirt, winning a debut in allowance company and then tailing off, the nadir being a sixth in a stakes in Hong Kong.  After the claim, her fortunes improved quickly: an allowance win, a stakes win, two seconds and a third in listed action.  Likes to come from off the pace, but has never been over seven-and-a-half panels before.  Numbers continue to show some improvement, but her best ones are still about 5-10 points lower than some of the main contenders, plus this is her 2006 debut, not to mention her 12^th start.  She’s bred for much longer, distances, though, so watch her coming out of this routing.

5. Theo’s Gulchess (26-1) [Gulch x Herbager]

Trainer: theodore5

Residency: Minnesota

Briefly: Well-bred horse being wheeled back here after an eleventh in an allowance just last weekend.  2-for-5 last year, including a nice allowance win at a mile, she’s 0-for-2 this year, to date; she was second in her 2006 debut with a career-high fig of 85, just missing in a mile allowance.  This is her first try beyond a mile.  She prefers to come from well off the pace to make a last dash.  She’s bred well, but the speed figures here lack impact; sprinting could be more her style.

6. Tete Melinda(NZ) (31-1) [Zabeel(NZ) x Kingmambo]

Trainer: sabbath6

Residency: Viking Racing

Briefly: She’s well-bred, and 3-for-4 lifetime, having won three in a row, her last two coming off the grass.  Takes a steep class rise here, from allowance company to a restricted special event like this, but is rounding into form enough to perhaps play a role.  She won her last in Longchamp with some ease, closing from off the pace and drawing off by 3 against NW2x foes, ending up with an 84 fig.  The numbers aren’t quite up to par with many of these, yet, but the middle distances shouldn’t be a factor against her.  She should be coming late, and might get a boost in development here.

7. Namesake(GB) (35-1) [Kayf Tara(GB) x Ela-Mana-Mou(IRE)]

Trainer: kaif032

Residency: EAAA Racing

Briefly: Has only a maiden win in five starts.  She improved when coming off the grass after a pair of races, and her figs instantly shot into the mid-80s as a result.  She drew off going a mile in her maiden win while sticking very close to the pace.  With not a lot of pace on paper here, she might get to the front with only a minimal amount of pressure, but what happens next might hinge on how fast they go.  Her career-best speed figure was an 86 in a stakes effort where she was fourth; her last start was back in early December, where she was an even fourth while hanging tough early on.  Distance shouldn’t be too much of a factor, though her struggles at a mile-and-a-sixteenth last out cast some doubt.

8. A.P. Sadler (6-1) [Sadler’s Wells x A.P. Indy]

Trainer: lostcode

Residency: Vermont

Briefly: Morning-line favorite; home course advantage?  One of five Top 20 horses here (#13), she has won two in a row, including the Grade II Boca Stakes two back.  Recent trends have her going to the front, and if she does, there might not be sufficient speed fast enough to go with her.  She’s versatile, anyway; she can come from the back if need be.  Relished the off-track last out, as she responded with a 96 while gritting out a head victory.  She might get a boost from returning to a fast course to give her an edge; regardless, she is a tough customer here, distance shouldn’t factor in, and her figs just about put her near the top of the list.

9. Chica De Ny (22-1) [Gold Fever-Garnacha, by Pine Bluff]

Trainer: har

Residency: Nexis

Briefly: 3-for-11 in ’05, 1-for-1 in ’06.  A closer who has finally discovered an appreciation for longer distances, who is 2-for-3 going a mile-and-a-sixteenth.  Has never been nine furlongs, and popped a career-best last out of 86, which, while good, falls a little short among these.  Pedigree suggests that there’ll be a limit as to just how far she’ll want to go.  Should be coming late, but is winless in just one graded start and there are stronger closers here.  Her jockey, though, does know this course and has had a solid career over it.

10. Casa Bonita (10-1) [Forestry x Capote]

Trainer: ravencard

Residency: GR Simsters

Briefly: Has hit the board in five of seven starts.  A true come-from-the-clouds type, she kicked hard to win her ’06 debut in fine, dazzling fashion in Arizona, scoring a speed figure of 93 in the process.  Grade II-placed in Sweden last year, she’d have appreciated some rain.  Never been this distance before, and pedigree hints nine furlongs is a possible upper range.  But her running style will keep her competitive at most any distance.  The lack of a lot of contentious speed could prove a bit troublesome, but she’s coming around at the right time, and 10-1 provides good value.

11. Storm Line (27-1) [Silver Deputy-Line Of Demarcation, by Storm Cat]

Trainer: slowracers

Residency: Great Plains

Briefly: A maiden with just one start under her belt, 27-1 would appear to be kind.  Unlike so many of these, she has actually been nine panels before, stalking in second throughout, mild and even all the way around North Dakota.  The fig of 80 for that is a solid effort, and she should get better from here.  But the maiden race is all she has, so she’s enigmatic.  If she can repeat her performance from that race here, she could influence how this plays out

12. Dodge The Vicar (33-1) [Dodge x Vicar]

Trainer: redturkey2

Residency: Ohio Thoroughbred Racing

Briefly: Humble beginnings yielded a restricted-stakes winner three back.  Likes to come from off the pace as well, and her last start was a very beneficial one, with a decent kick for third in a Florida allowance.  The resulting 88 was a career-best, moves her into the middle of the pack, and should help her down the road.  The mile is probably her preferred distance, however, and the stakes win that served as her maiden win was only a restricted stakes, not a Grade I; she’s yet to prove herself in open company.

13. Dixieland Deputy (8-1) [Dixieland Band-Bold Deputy, by Deputy Minister]

Trainer: lurch

Residency: Ireland

Briefly:  #17 in the classic division, and has hit the board in eight of nine starts.  Has the best last-time-out fig here, a sparkling 98 while winning the Grade III Santa Jezebel going away, by 2.  Was a solid third in the Grade I Mother Story two back, and prefers to make her run from the rear of the field.  Pedigree is blue, she’s spaced her races enough, and loves to kick late.  The only potential glitch could be the matter of pace early on here: not enough of it could make the sledding a little tougher than she’s used to.  She’s poised to be a success later on this year, and this would be her announcement of arrival in the division.

14. Forty Red (10-1) [Forty Niner x Blushing Groom(FR)]

Trainer: super8

Residency: DelPenn

Briefly: Has hit the board seven out of eight starts, and has never failed to bring home a check.  Regally-bred filly was third in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly, and twice Grade I-placed, with near-misses in all starts.  Has a win at this distance in her ’05 debut last out, in the California Mudslide, but the race didn’t give her the strongest speed figure (an 84); even being 1-5, the fig doesn’t quite measure up to some other last-out numbers here.  Could the three-and-a-half length win against three other contenders (including a CPU horse) have been too soft a prep?  She likes to make her best run from the rear of the pack, and she’s #5 overall, and yet the numbers for her have “almost” written on them—she almost won three graded races.  Her figs are strong, but not the best in here, and she’s yet to win a “big” one.

15. Skippy (11-1) [Afleet-Sally Roo, by Buckaroo]

Trainer: scout4

Residency: Down Under Racing

Briefly: A multiple graded winner, out of a stakes-winning router, she’s only finished out of the money once in eight starts.  She stumbled going into the BB Juvenile Fillies, and has yet to recover her stride, with a pair of thirds in her last two tries.  She too likes to make a dash from the back late, but it was ineffective last time in Japan.  The pace needs to be sharp for her here, and her numbers have only barely scraped above 90, which could prove troublesome in a field with a lot of talent assembled in Vermont.

16. Zytown (7-1) [Speightstown-Zystreet(IRE), by Street Cry(IRE)]

Trainer: zyro

Residency: NWRC

Briefly: She’s got six wins, and has hit the board in eight of nine races.  Has both a 98 fig (dating back to New Year’s Eve’s romp over a good track in the Grade III Reflection Futurity) and a race at nine furlongs (a second in the Grade II Hello Goodbye last out).  Another closer, though she’s shown a preference to be a little bit closer than the others.  She’s a two-time graded winner who makes the grade on class (35 in the division) and the 93 proves she can come out swinging.  Is a mile-and-an-eighth too long for her at this stage, though?  Remember, the sire was a sprinter.  She’ll lead a second flight of closers, but pace and timing will be critical for her.

17. Nikitis(IRE) (52-1) [Generous(IRE)-Dandy River(IRE), by Ela-Mana-Mou(IRE)]

Trainer: epsom

Residency: Epsom Downs Residency

Briefly: A maiden through five starts.  She could help influence the pace, as she’s lain in stalking mode in each of her last three starts.  She draws an outside post, but her pedigree suggests more ground is acceptable.  Indeed, she’s trying nine furlongs for the first time here.  She’s also bred for turf, and her sole try wasn’t too bad there; a return trip going longer could be in her future.

18. My Heart’s Des(IRE) (27-1) [Ballingarry(IRE)-Jove Trapper, by Rahy]

Trainer: eddielegg

Residency: Alpine Turf Club

Briefly: Was a fast-closing second on ATC Champions Day last out.  She’s a staunch closer who’s never been farther than a mile, and her numbers are still somewhat shaky at this stage, her best fig being an 82.  Has shown a little flicker of spark coming off the grass in her first four starts, and added distance should be appealing to her (grass racing still somewhat plausible for her in the future).  She’ll be moving late, but the added ground and the uncertainty of her speed figs make her a questionable proposition.  She might need a terribly swift pace for her best efforts.

19. Queenly Saint (18-1) [Kingmambo-She’s A Saint, by Saint Ballado]

Trainer: zapspride

Residency: Fun And Friends Stable Club

Briefly: She actually won her maiden at this distance, with some ease (by some three-and-a-half lengths) in her debut, and has never been running any distance shorter than a mile.  (She’s yet to try the turf, either, but that’s a different story.)  Can sit off the pace, or can go out with the leaders.  Her best graded try was a sixth in the Golden Red two back, where she ran alright.  Her numbers are improving little by little, and her allowance win last out, with an 86, was an efficient stalking job.  She draws an outside post, though, and may have to expend a bit of energy to catch a break or two up front, so her best hope is to rate a bit more and hope the pace doesn’t percolate.  A fair filly with a bright future.

20. Wakiwild (10-1) [Forest Wildcat-Miss Wakisky, by Miswaki]

Trainer: turfsurf

Residency: GSR

Briefly: Draws a far-outside post.  How far?  Try Springfield, Massachusetts.  Too bad; she likes to be sitting chilly just off the lead, never too far from the front.  Was a middling fifth in the Grade III Santa Jezebel last out.  Her figs are pretty decent, but the 92 three back in a near-miss in an Ontario stakes stands out.  That came over a good track, though, and she’s yet to run back to it.  Her best distance may hover around a mile, though her dam won routing previously.  Plenty of potential here, but you can’t like that #20 post.

My projections:

Gold: Dixieland Deputy.  Silver: A.P. Sadler.  Bronze: Forty Red.

The dark horses: Casa Bonita, Balto Hollandia, Queenly Saint.

Good luck to all the residencies and competitors in the 2006 Winter Equinics.