Fantastic Start for the Equinics

During a weekend with so many stakes, some of the talent has been spread thinly, and some of the stakes have come up with suspect fields.  Not so with the first race on Italy’s Equinics card. As a group, the entrants have an incredible 52 wins in 77 turf sprint starts. 

The $1,000,000 Grade I Eric Guerin for three year old fillies will show the jockeys and trainers how the yielding turf surface will play for the rest of the card.

This race came up so strong, the number one three year old turf filly at every distance, Super Gold, will go off as a lukewarm co-favorite at 8-1 odds, the longest of her career.

Here is a look at the entire field:

1. Simsters6 (14%) found a four filly stakes for Ganglord’s (Devil’s Bag x Mr. Prospector) debut, and then a six filly stakes for her second start.  Ganglord responded with a two for two lifetime record. That second start was especially impressive.  The field was small, but had five stakes winners in it, and Ganglord won with a 90 speed figure, one matched by only four others in here.  Odds are 13-1.

2. Girlinareddress (Jump Start x Acadamy Award) tried a dirt stakes last time and ran last every step of the way.  The return to grass should be a helpful for the Bayourace (17%) trainee.  She is five for five lifetime in turf sprints.  Her speed figures are slower than many in here, but most came a while back in her two year old season.  She comes off a nine week layoff, so it remains to be seen if Bayourace has her in top form.  Odds are 23-1

3. Jockey K Ledwith is winning at a colony best 26% clip in a short career and opts for Klassic Prospector (Sky Classic x Mr. Prospector) here.  Ledwith has ridden her to two previous wins.  Wrecks (17%) has trained Klassic to a five for five record in turf sprints, including a win at the Grade III Palms Outward.  She is coming off an 11 week layoff, and like the previous filly, she is trying dirt to turf.  Odds are 18-1.

4. The feel good story of the field may be Singforyoursupper (Singingintherain x Fast Play).  She debuted in a $2500 maiden claimer, and five races later she is trying to win a Grade I stakes.  Unlike the previous three fillies, she is not undefeated in turf sprints – she has two wins and a second in three tries.  She is facing an uphill class battle here, but with trainer MollyDoer (8%) pledging 3% of any winnings to an orphan puppy fund, the crowd would love to see this upset.  Odds are 30-1.

5. Super20’s (17%) Super Gold (Seeking the Gold x Northern Dancer) is about 85 cents away from already banking $1,000,000.  She is five for five in turf sprints.  That may sound like some others in here, but her five wins include three Grade I stakes.  She has almost four times as many “stakes points” as any other in here.  The only question mark is that there are five fillies in here that have run speed figures of 90 or better.  She is not among them.  Odds are 8-1.

6. Battle Rocket (Awesome Sword x A.P. Indy) finished second to the speedy Malindi last time to spoil her record to three wins and a second in four turf sprint tries.  The Dillard (7%) trainee has looked like she might prefer longer than six furlongs, and that may explain the 20-1 odds.

7. Bandstand (Dixieland Band x Nashua) earned a 90 speed figure in her last start, running her turf sprint record to three wins, two seconds and a third in seven tries.  Kevoman5 (18%) has her very sharp for this.  Odds are 10-1.

8. Seekers Keepers (Seeking the Gold x Danehill) bid and hung in the Grade I Sky Beauty Handicap last time.  There are surprisingly few early speed types here and Seekers figures to be close to the pace for trainer Scout3 (8%).  Speed figures and running style may be enough to overcome a zero for four record in turf sprints.  Odds are 9-1.

9. The top speed figure in the race belongs to Ssj4vegeta’s (15%) Crossland Drive (Southern Halo x Gone West).  What may make that especially significant is she earned it on wet grass.  Now three for four lifetime in turf sprints, the versatile filly looks to have a great shot here at odds of 12-1.

10. Six for six in turf sprints (Are there any turf sprints that weren’t won by one of these fillies?), Vampires3’s (23%) Nonstop Flight (Forty Niner x Seattle Slew) will try for her seventh straight win.  She is among the half dozen in here who are coming off speed figures of 90 or better.  I can’t find any reason she won’t win, except that you could say that about many in here.  Odds are 12-1.

11. La Gomera (Fusaichi Pegasus x War Chant) made broke her maiden in her first start – a turf sprint in a large field on a wet track against the boys.  She is now three of six with a minor stakes win in turf sprints.  The Bagur (15%) trainee has a recent race.  That and the proven fondness for an off track may help.  Odds are 17-1.

12. Veteran trainer Kartago (18%) brings the lightly raced Tete Daemonarcha (Mont Jeu x Dynaformer).  The filly has only two starts, both routes.  She won her most recent start eight weeks ago with an 83 speed figure.  Normal development and a potential to like a sprint would make her a sneaky longshot here.  Odds are 29-1.

13. Crypt Robber (Gone West x Nureyev) has finished in the money in eight of eleven lifetime starts, is one for two in turf sprints, and ran her quickest race in a turf sprint.  That said, the Browns (12%) trained filly is making a huge class jump and looks to have a tough go of it here.  Odds are 19-1.

14. Impossible Project (Not Impossible x Mr. Prospector) seems to be improving for trainer Heythere (12%).  She is now three for five in turf sprints, with three stakes wins, however those wins came against fields of four or five fillies.  Fout weeks ago she finished a closing fifth, less than two lengths out, in the Grade II Whodini Shootout.  She may well be primed for a strong three year old season.  Odds are 14-1.

15. With a 28%win rate, the Correction barn is one of the best.  They send out Fusaichi Inferno (Fusaichi Pegasus x Nureyev) for this.  She had been routing, including a poor showing in the Storm Dog on DelPenn day.  Then she made a dramatic stretch move to win a minor stakes last time in her first try at a turf sprint.  A deep closer, she will be flying late, but in such a large field traffic may be a problem.  Odds are 10-1.

16. Dot Matrix (Dynaformer x Soviet Star) has been a steady performer for the ProjectX (10%) stable.  She has been in the money in all six of her turf sprint tries, winning two.  She has been showing some steady improvement, but the class jump explains the long odds.  Odds are 23-1.

17. At 40-1, the longest shot is the perfectly named Almost an Angel (Ange Gabriel x Forty Niner).  Even she has been in the money in four of five turf sprints, including two wins.  Her speed figures have not been close to some of those in here, but she figures to improve with a return to a sprint, and her last sprint was almost four months ago – plenty of time for the Skunkieluv (8%) trainee to have matured.

18. Brundle Hollandia (Officer x Gone West) finished behind Impossible Project last time and behind Super Gold (and in front of Prabha) the time before that.  She was four for four in turf sprints before those two efforts, and the difference may be that she ran closer to the lead in the earlier races.  Trainer Oostende3 (20%) figures to notice the lack of early pace here and has attracted star jockey H Harzheim to take advantage.  Odds are 11-1.

19. On the outside of the auxiliary starting gate, Prabha (Testa Rossa x Warning) figures to make a run for the early lead.  After fading to a disappointing seventh as a co-favorite in the DelPenn Red Tejas behind Super Gold and Brundle Hollandia, the United (12%) trainee rebounded to win a minor Nevada stakes three weeks ago to prep for this.  Speed figures say she is back in top form and, just like in the Red Tejas, she is co-favored with Super Gold at 8-1.

Morning line selections: 5-19-8-7-15

Timmn’s result of assigning numbers randomly to popcorn kernels and noting the order in which they popped: 10-9-5-12