Speed, speed, speed in the Ron Turcotte
We’re pleased to kick off the 2006 Equinics, the
*NOTE – Although the analysis of a lot of these may seem negative, I’m only calling it the way that I predict the race to break down. Besides, if I’m picking the Top 3, that leaves 17 others that I don’t think will be at the top in this race. Smile, you’re racing in the Equinics!!
Privileged (10/1) –
Trainer: saver
Pedigree: Gone West x
Key Races/Wins: Gold Pine Stakes, G1 Blue Ant Handicap
Record: 7(4-0-2)
Analysis: #3 ranked in the Dirt Sprint Division, likes to sit 2-4 lengths off the leader and rally from there. There is a ton of early speed signed up here and based on past start speeds I think this guys might find himself a little farther off the pace today. He has the speed figures to be prominent here. If he can stay close without getting fried or can rally from farther back than normal he has a shot to medal.
Kepler Da Vinci (31/1) – Viking Racing
Trainer: marianus
Pedigree: Alysheba x El Gran Senor x Valid Appeal
Key Races/Wins: MSW
Record: 9(
Analysis: It’s hard to back a horse whose only victory is a Maiden Special Weight and has not broken the 90 speed figure barrier. Throw in the fact that he does his best running while forwardly placed and you have a tough assignment. Probably isn’t his day.
Northern Blast (10/1) – Down Under Racing
Trainer: jockeymax6
Pedigree: Storm Cat x
Key Races/Wins: Elk Bubba Memorial, G2 High Roller’s Memorial, G2 Big Hill Stakes
Analysis: The #1 ranked horse in the division is a huge threat to take the gold. He will find himself toward the back of the pack early but he does his best running from that position. I think the race sets up perfectly for him and is my choice for the top spot.
The Curse Lives (19/1) –
Trainer: dundey7
Pedigree:
Key Races/Wins: Cryptolightning Bonanza Stakes, 3rd in G1 Blue Ant Handicap
Analysis: Yet another frontrunner that might be compromised by all the other speed. He should be fighting for the lead and will probably need to go wire to wire to win this. I can’t envision any horse being able to pull that off in this race and therefore I see him fading late.
Corey’s
Trainer: rharfbeam
Pedigree: Glitterman x Broad Brush x Gone West
Key Races/Wins: Alnaab Avenger Special, Inebriated Pod Challenge, The Bro’s Bro Stakes
Analysis: He will be a prominent part of the early pace and has posted one of the highest spee figures in this group. Ultimately I think the pace is going to break this guy down, but I still think he could take home a medal. I’m predicting the bronze.
Easy
Trainer: ghosty
Pedigree: Dixieland Band x Known Fact x Nijinsky II
Key Races/Wins: Alw NW3L
Analysis: Sports an impressive 93 speed figure at the distance in his last race, however there are many question marks surrounding this entry. His best races have come when he has been able to stay close to a relatively slow pace. It is not going to set up that way today and he will have to rally from farther back. Lack of a stakes win makes him a longhsot.
Crypto Flow (15/1) – The
Trainer: kyclocker
Pedigree: Cryptoclearance x
Key Races/Wins: Stuck on Pye Memorial, G1 Lad Stakes
Analysis: One of three G1 winners in the field, but I have a feeling he’s going to be up against it here. He has done his best running when sitting 1 to 3 lengths off the leader, but with start speeds in the 50-55 range, I think he may find himself much farther back. Just have a feeling that things won’t set up for him here, but he is a threat.
Wonderboy Eamon (IRE) (15/1) –
Trainer: stalfrank
Pedigree: Desert King (IRE) x Pentilicus x Pine Bluff
Key Races/Wins: Honkey Tonk Blood Special, G2 Dell Computer Futurity, G1 Killer Monkey
Analysis: The #2 ranked horse in the division is getting no respect at 15/1 on the morning line. AQ multiple grades stakes winner, the Wonderboy has a big shot here since there will be plenty of pace for him to run at. I think Northern Blast will get the jump on him turning for home but he’s my pick for the silver medal.
Splitenz (18/1) – Alpine Turf Club
Trainer: hawkz
Pedigree: Stormin Fever x Al Hattab x Court Martial
Key Races/Wins: Fried Salmon Memorial, Silver Swallow Stakes
Analysis: Like so many of these, this guy looks like he needs to be within a length of the lead to put his best foot forward. He is one of the quicker starters in the field but a couple others look like they might be a bit faster. If he can stick with the leaders he’s got a shot to pull the upset but I’m predicting he back ups in the stretch.
Slew Gulch (8/1) –
Trainer: ace3
Pedigree: Gulch x
Key Races/Wins: Cat Bust Cap, Coon Creek Memorial, Nineteen Capote Bonanaza, Live Gizmo Cap, Stupidly Plain Challenge
Analysis: This 5-time stakes winner and #13 ranked horse in the division must be respected here. I think he may be bringing up the rear in the early portion of the race and then will unleash his furious late kick coming for home. I think he may end up having to do just a little bit too much in the stretch and end up just missing hitting the board.
Trainer: cindyshero
Pedigree: Perfect Soul (IRE) x
Key Races/Wins: Smart Investment Special
Analysis: Who would have thought that Perfect Soul would throw such a good dirt sprinter? This guy has put up a competitive speed figure but looks like he’s in the same boat with a lot of the others. A horse that likes to be close but has done so in races with slow early paces.
Red Hawk (17/1) – Fun and Friends Stable Club
Trainer: hooked
Pedigree: Tomahawk x Forty Niner x Red Ransom
Key Races/Wins: Chief Hulk Memorial Stakes, Sharon &
Analysis: This guy has managed to win 4 stakes races already but has never reached the 90 speed figure mark. He a classy runner but I think he’s going to need to improve at least 10 points to take this race. He very well could step up and become a nice high priced winner so there is some betting value here.
Vger (87/1) –
Trainer: bigbaba2
Pedigree: Lycius x Pine Bluff x Mt
Key Races/Wins: MSW
Analysis: Well, at least he’s not 99/1! This guy has been thrown to the wolves and a victory here would be Arcangues-esqe. He is truly a David going up against a bunch of Goliaths. He will most definitely be a pace casualty.
Slid Anchor (GB) (35/1) – Epsom Downs
Trainer: b4rca
Pedigree: Slip Anchor (GB) x Dilum x Henbit
Key Races/Wins: Alw
Analysis: A bargain bred going up against the bluebloods here. Unfortunately, this guy has a couple strikes against him. 1) He has never won a stakes race and 2) he has never run a speed figure of at least 90. Those are two large hurdles he will have to overcome to spring the upset.
Rock For The Ages (IRE) (11/1) –
Trainer: marto
Pedigree: Rock of
Key Races/Wins: Cake Sparkle Stakes
Analysis: This is another horse who seems to want the lead and is fully capable of getting it if the race is a bit longer, but I’m not convinced he can get the lead in this race. His best speed figures have come in races of 7.5 furlongs and a mile, so the 6 furlong distance may be a little tough versus this company.
Fusaichi Flyer (7/1) – DelPenn
Trainer: super18
Pedigree: Fusaichi Pegasus x Halo x Bold Ruler
Key Races/Wins: G3 Midsoil Stakes, 2nd G2
Analysis: The morning line favorite surely because of his 96 speed figure at the distance. Although this super colt has nice credentials, I think he may be in for a tough fight. He has shown an affinity for running at the front of the pack and that doesn’t seem like the place to be in this race. Look elsewhere for value.
Fernando Storm (10/1) – Nexis
Trainer: Fernando
Pedigree: Storm Cat x Seeking The Gold x Danehill
Key Races/Wins: Old Jove Memorial, 2nd G3 Early Morning Special, 2nd G2 Dell Computer Futurity
Analysis: As tough as it is to predict which horse is going to get the lead, my prediction is this guy. He is a strong front runner but has a tendency to give up the lead late as evidenced by his 2nd place finishes in those 2 G2 races. Although he may be the “speed of the speed”, he’s destined to be pressured from the get go and most likely will get caught late again. I think he’ll pick up a paycheck though.
Captain Gold (23/1) – NorthWest Racing Circuit
Trainer: ladyeve3
Pedigree: Mr. Greeley x Broad Brush x Strike The Gold
Key Races/Wins: Black Nine Handicap
Analysis: Stop me if you’ve heard this, this guy runs best on the lead but has only been able to this in races with a slow pace. He is also another one of the horses who have not run over a 90 speed figure. Those two factors make it tough to envision him winning this race.
Mr. Devious (22/1) – EAAA Racing
Trainer: Londoner
Pedigree: Crafty Prospector x Storm Cat x Valid Appeal
Key Races/Wins: Kaibab Stakes, Classy Class Stakes
Analysis: This guy is a two-time stakes winner who will probably find himself farther back than normal. He’s going to have to pick it up a couple notched to stick around with the big boys here. The fact that he hasn’t ever run a 90 speed figure is another downer.
Red Vise (15/1) – GSR
Trainer: econ
Pedigree: Victory Gallop x High Yield x Summer Squall
Key Races/Wins: A Bout de Souffle Stakes
Analysis: This guy had the look of a nice sleeper for this race until he drew the outside post. Of course if you don’t think post position means anything, he’s a nice sleeper! He should be sitting off the frantic pace and making a move late. But I’d take Wonderboy Eamon at 15/1 over this guy at 15/1.
Predicted Order of Finish
1st – Northern Blast
2nd – Wonderboy Eamon
3rd – Corey’s Mission
4th – Slew Gulch
5th – Fernando Storm