Smackdown: Juvenile Fillies Surf the Turf
These early 2yo stakes are always fun. Terribly unpredictable, but fun. There’s not a ton you can say about these girls, given that they have at most 4 lifetime starts. On top of that, none of them have run the race distance of 7 furlongs before (though a few have gone 6.5). Still, there are some hints as to who might be destined for greatness and who might be destined for something a little less exciting.
Embargo Super14 11/1 One of two Superstables-bred fillies in the race, she’s looking pretty nice so far. Has two wins and a second on the turf and should appreciate stretching out another 1.5 furlongs. I’m meh on the jockey, but like the filly at the price of 11/1. Will need to speed up just a smidge, but I think that’s likely.
Well Bred Royalybred 18/1 Brahms filly broke her maiden at first asking, but flattened out in subsequent three starts, with two seconds and a fourth. I suspect this field’s going to be too much for her.
Possessed Devil01 9/1 Won twice in first two turf starts, but only managed third in first stakes. Solid filly with good speed figures could get into the mix here with a bit of luck. Should be happy going a bit further here and has a competent jock. Wouldn’t be a bit surprised if she hit the board.
Budas Missile Norm 14/1 Has a win and a second on the turf, but will need to do some speeding up to compete with a very tough crowd here.
Pay No Attention Simsters1 7/1 Pay attention to this girl, one of three stakes winners in the field. She’ll need to run a little bit faster here than she has in the past, but it’s within her reach and I like that she’s already proved herself in stakes company.
Sudden Winner T Highc 17/1 Another black-type winner, though that was against a field of four. That stakes win was against a small enough field that it’s hard to know what to make of it. She’ll be against tougher and faster here and will need her A game to compete.
Cannot Comply Super13 8/1 Really perked up between her second and third starts and has won 2 of 3. If she can run like she did last time out, she’ll be a serious player here. Improvement is likely for her with a little more distance, so watch out.
Stormy Mesa Pgcretired 8/1 To soon to tell with this one. She won comfortably at first asking in a full field, which is great, but not a ton of data to go on for this race. Who knows, but she certainly ran her first race like she could be a very nice one.
In Time Million 11/1 Absolutely nuts to see a stakes-winning filly who’s 2-for-2 on the turf going off at 11/1. There’s no reason for it whatsoever. There were only 5 horses in that stakes, but she won it with a time that should be competitive here. Taking on a big, tough crowd here, but she certainly looks like she’s up to it.
Sals Back Mobboss 28/1 This filly’s in the “just happy to be here” category. She’s a maiden who hasn’t impressed much in her two prior starts, but it’s certainly far too early to make any final pronouncements on her. Deserves to be a longshot, but strange things happen in these maiden races.
Soul Glow Given2 10/1 Nice filly who improved markedly between her first and second starts. Has just a
Storm O Hollandia Oostende4 7/1 This will be the first grass start for this successful Stormy Atlantic filly. On the dirt she has won two and come close in a couple of stakes races. She looks like she should probably prefer the dirt, but you never know. If she takes to the turf, she could be a contender.
Lost Witness Salamander 9/1 Odds seem a little short on this one. She has just broken her maiden in her second attempt in a small field of four. She’s taking on much tougher here. It’s possible, of course, but she hasn’t done anything to really grab my attention yet.
Blue Smoke Eomer 6/1 Love this filly. Has the highest turf speed fig of anyone in the field and was a competitive second in a graded race. She has also won an overnight stakes. She has run very consistently in her three turf starts and should benefit from a bit more distance. On top of that, her jock has a 24% strike rate.
It’s anyone’s race, though I think Blue Smoke is clearly the girl to beat. There are plenty of others knocking at the door, though.
Good luck to everyone and may your girls come back safe and sound.