Favorite Swingshift Sal talking Smack in the Classic Turf Division
This writer has been around the block a few times, and I’ve been around the SIM long enough to remember the days when the residencies ruled: everyone who was someone was someone in a residency. Well, it seems we’re back in the renaissance of the residency. The DelPenn vs. GR Simsters Smackdown is upon us, and the quality of the fields at both Delaware and Pennsylvania this week reflects the health of the residencies. For my part, I’m back in the older males turf division, where I’ve been most of this year, covering what (for once) looks to be a competitive event. Free of the hulking presence of Allied Assault, Sunnybank Memorial, Rain God, and Bristol Rovers, who tend to turn otherwise competitive races into one or two horse affairs, the up-and-comers have a chance to shine, and perhaps send a message to the big four that they’re out there, ready to make a late-season charge into division prominence as we approach the Breeders’ Bowl. So, the stage is set: 10 furlongs, over the lawn. $250,000 and some pretty prestigious bragging rights to the winner, and the residency where the winner is housed. On to the contenders:
Tepid 5/1 favorite Swingshift Sal, trainer by click, leads the way in this field. He’s ranked 8th in the turf classic division, and is quite the 10-furlong specialist: prior to his dull 3rd place showing last time out at 12 furlongs, he had run up consecutive victories in the Kinsho Kho Classic (G2) in Japan, followed up with the prestigious Prince Of Whales Stakes (G1), where his desperate late rush got him to the wire just a head in front of the field. Jockey S. Camp will be on board, and while he’s not the talk of the town, he’s having one of the better years of his career, and gets quite a horse for today’s contest. He should have Swingshift Sal stalking the pace, and if he gets loose at the top of the stretch, he’ll be full of run coming to the wire.
Close behind in the wagering are a pair of 6/1 shots, Doggie Walacki and Top Jimmy, trained respectively by theagakhan and sdmf2. Doggie Walacki has a formidable closing kick, but lately its been leaving him just a little short. Sporting a 2-1-1 record from his last five starts, it is encouraging that those two wins have come at 10 furlongs and 10.5 furlongs, and his only three losses have come in GI company. One of those GI races, the Little Guppy Classic, saw him ¼ length the better of Swingshift Sal, as the two filled the 3rd and 4th positions. His speed figures suggest he belongs with this group, though he’ll be hoping that over 10 furlongs, the pace is a little hotter than what he’s been seeing at 11 and 12 furlongs, making that closing kick that much better.
Top Jimmy, meanwhile, comes out of the same race as Doggie Walacki, where he finished 7th (to Doggie Walacki’s 4th). His previous effort saw him miss by only a head after a desperate closing charge in the G2 King George BB Stakes in Canada, which snapped a 3 race win streak that had started with his first foray onto the turf. It mystifies this writer why he hadn’t been on turf all along, seeing as he is sired by Arc winner Peintre Celebre, but he has found a home on turf and if he is of this class, he will have a big say in the outcome. He has yet to find success against the elite of his division though, and 11.6% jock L Salisbury will have to coax every last ounce of energy out of him to drive him past Swingshift Sal in the stretch if he is to come home a victor.
Next at 8/1 is the intriguing Stormy, from the barn of trainer stretch. Primarily a dirt runner, he is 8: 0-2-2 over the lawn, but being by Pulpit, it would seem he could run a corker over this surface, and having not tested the green in 2 ½ years, he must be accorded another shot, especially if one considers speed numbers on turf that have often topped 110, which would bring him home first in this race. Slightly more troublesome than the lack of success over the lawn, however, is the fact that his average speed figure this year seems to have dropped nearly 15 points from his peak last year: at age 6, making his 55th start, Stormy may have lost a step, and it will be a tall order for him to hit the board in this race, barring a miraculous revival and newfound appreciation for the grass.
Also at 8/1 is Grimnosh, who would seem to have slightly better chances for trainer knightmare than does Stormy. He’s a speedy, battle tested son of Gold Legend, and while he hasn’t found the wire first as of late, he’s consistently picked up a check in top-notch company. He’ll be on the bridle straight off the start, and jockey W. Williams will have him freewheeling on the lead the whole way. If he can get far enough out early, or slow the pace considerably once clearing the field, he could take them wire-to-wire. The alternative scenario is obvious: should he be hooked early, he will be running on fumes as the formidable closers in this field lick their chops turning for home.
One of those horses that may hook Grimnosh is 12/1 longshot Abyss, from the barn of afc2. A speedy son of Sadler’s Wells, he should stay all day, and will be intent on keeping Grimnosh honest on the lead. It appears as though he has more depth and stamina than Grimnosh, but his speed numbers put him a cut below, so if the pace is slow, Grimnosh will have the edge, but if the pace should quicken, it will be Abyss who is left to test his class against the closers when Grimnosh’s stamina gives out after 8.5-9 furlongs.
Afc2 has a 2nd shot in this race with 13/1 shot Harvester Of Eyes, and its possible that he’ll be using Abyss to force the pace and hoping that this one can pick up the pieces late. He’s a deep closer with a lot of back class (he was a GI winner last year), but his previous 3 efforts leave a lot to be desired: speed numbers in the 80’s will see him trailing home mid-pack, and he is in desperate need of a return to the form that saw him running 100+ just five starts back.
Also at 13/1 is Otto Rock(IRE), who despite ridiculous placement last out going just 6 furlongs after prior races at 11, 12, and 10 furlongs, remains a solid threat. I covered this horse for the South Is King Stakes (G1), where he ran honestly in pursuit of Allied Assault but came up 3 ¼ lengths short, and I’m a big fan of his abilities. He strengthened his credentials with a G2 win over 10 furlongs in his subsequent race, and if one is willing to forgive his sprint debacle and assume he’ll be able to stretch out again without issue, he must be afforded a huge chance for trainer sunkitten, especially at his odds.
Lopo87 sends out 14/1 shot Fantastic Lyphard, who steps into the race after two consecutive victories at the distance in allowance company. While this may be an easier spot than most to test stakes company in this division, he won’t have it easy and will need plenty of racing luck to pick up a check. Pg51 sends out 17/1 Anderson Top, a talented runner but also an old campaigner on the downside of his career. Inconsistency seems to be the rule for horses making their 50th start, and if he runs to the 100 he threw 2 starts back, he can compete for the win. If he runs to the 82 he threw in his last outing, he can compete for last place. A big question mark. Dispensation, and 18/1 shot for trainer miraloma, seems better than the odds indicate, though he is lacking in stakes experience. His running style may hurt him as well, as he’ll be part of the pace set by Grimnosh and Abyss. That kind of pressure on the early lead may doom him as he tests stakes competition for the first time, but he does seem to be coming into his own on the turf as a 4 year old.
Strstables sends out 30/1 shot Secretary Sakhee, who can run mid-90 speed numbers with regularity but may be a cut below stakes quality at this point in his career. The former claimer is on the up-and-up, but may need some time to get there. Lastly, tihsho sends out Distorted Bluff II. He is 77/1, and is that way for a reason. With only $38,000 in earnings, he has no divisional ranking. His last race saw him thrashed in an $11,200 allowance, and excluding a 92 two starts back in an allowance victory, his 5-start speed figure average is a mere 78. Needs a return ticket to allowance company where he can be successful.
So there you have it! Grimnosh, Abyss and Dispensation set up the pace. Swingshift Sal, Doggie Walacki, Top Jimmy, and Otto Rock come after him as the field turns into the stretch. It’s racing at its finest: older horses, on the turf. No superstars, no standouts, just a slugfest in which at least 12 of the horses have a legitimate chance to hit the board. Saturday at noon, the anticipation will be over. One of these will be laying the smack down, and this writer sure wouldn’t miss it for the world.