Bell Rings on Smackdown
It would seem yours truly has the honour of covering the first race on the card for the DelPenn vs. GRSimsters Smackdown. What better opportunity than this to have a bit of a spy on a couple of GPR’s opposition residencies, and see what it is that makes their horses and trainers tick.
Race nine on the card is a one mile turf effort for fillies and mares over a mile, chasing a handy little purse of $250,000.
1. IMPERIAL OATS (AUS) – bentley – Even as the favourite, this 5yo mare gets the added benefit of the rail run for this event. Despite a drop off in speeds at her last two outings, this girl still managed an alw win, and in the past has repeatedly shown she has the ability to run at stakes level, hence her winnings so far, almost at the ½ million mark. I’m prepared to forgive those last two runs as her trainer has clearly reacted to what the horse was saying and given her a good rest leading into this one. One only has to look four starts ago, and a dazzling speed of 114 hit the boards in the Pharstorm Stakes, finding an incredibly easy win of over 11 lengths. I have a little concern she may not quite have enough distance at only 8 furlongs, but she’s had plenty of rest, and a return to somewhere near that peak form should be more than enough to overcome any distance concerns. I would expect the inclusion of this girl would be an ominous fear for her rivals.
2. EFFICY – hornets07 – It’s a little difficult to gauge precisely where this lady sits form-wise heading into this race. In recent times her stakes form has been rather modest to say the least, but those run were in graded company. On the other end of the spectrum, of her last three runs, two in allowances she’s won on both occasions, and cracked the 100 speed mark. It’s not inconceivable that she may just find something in the middle of those performances for this one, but if I must be brutally honest I really think she’s going to find the going a little tough against both a potentially explosive favourite, and the relative inconsistency of late.
3. STRATUSPHERE – pilgrim3 – Straight off I must say congratulations to this trainer on what appears (?) to be a very nice claim a few starts ago indeed! This 4yo looks to have been travelling very nicely through her relatively short career of only fourteen starts. First impressions are that she seems to be getting just that little bit better overall with every start she makes. It’s quite possible that she may in fact be going even better has she been allowed to settle down on one surface rather than the fairly regular changes needed to be dealt with. A drop in class from allowance level almost instantly brought results with two wins on the trot in her last couple of outings, and a best ever speed figure to boot at her last. It’s clear that the jump up even further in class will be the biggest hurdle, but perhaps it was this challenge she’s been yearning all along. Time will tell of course, and the speed of 102 last time out does place her within the ball park, and more importantly in some kind of form.
4. SUNDAY SILENCE – pg48 – One has to agree these race conditions couldn’t be more suited to this mare, but a curious drop off in form has plagued this lady in her past four starts. Based upon her run five starts ago in a stakes and the glimpses she’s sporadically given since, it’s clear she has the potential ability to run with this crowd, but one gets the feeling that perhaps an extended lay-off may be what’s needed to get her back to her peak. Admittedly she’s had four weeks off leading into this, so it may be enough, but a more consistent recent showing would tend to give me a little more confidence.
5. LOOP DA LOUP – general – Under most circumstance it would be difficult to look past any runner with a better than an almost one in three winning percentage, but with this mare I must. As with quite a few in this race there seems to be a drop off in form heading into this race, obviously a hindrance from the go-get, but in this lady’s case I’m truly of the opinion, even if there’s a return to peak form, against the likely placegetters here she’s going to run out of legs through the stretch.
6. COASTLINE – afc – Astoundingly, yet another entrant seemingly unable to boast good consistent form heading into this race. An appealing stakes run hasn’t been seen for eight starts, on this occasion running a 109 speed, and winning by ¾ of a length on DelPenn Champions Day, so expecting a sudden turnaround may be a little wishful, although not impossible. Her allowance run two starts ago, cracking the 100 mark again, and winning, does however bring some confidence in a top three finish, but challenging for the win against the favourite may be just a little out of reach.
7. POP CULTURE –lenny11 – If any of the outsiders of this field is to hunt down the leaders then look no further than this fine 4yo filly. It appears that 8 furlongs is about the limit for this girl to be at her true best. I write this because, despite a win and a 101 speed figure five starts ago at 8 ½ furlongs, the moment she’s dropped to 8 furlongs or less (at 6½ last time out) she produces a whopping personal best of 107, and narrowly misses the win by ¾ of a length after a stunning close. The extra 1 ½ furlongs in this event should suit her down to the ground, quite possibly making the step back up in class negligible. Without doubt the one to watch amongst this field.
8. BEAUTIFUL BUDA – godmother – This 4yo filly finds herself second in the line of favouritism, and for good reason. Although yet to produce a speed as monumental as the favourite she does, arguably, boast the most consistent form leading into the conditions of this challenge. Last start she did find things a little tough in a GSR G1, but given the usual astounding quality of those races, it’s easily looked over. Prior to this she seemed to be going from strength to strength, peaking at a 4yo career best speed of 105, tragically losing by a mere nose. History shows, she’s gone even faster, as a 3yo having reached the dizzy heights of a 110 speed, and in graded company. The talent and ability is clearly there, and apart from the hiccough of her last start looks to be well on her way to mixing it amongst the elite once again. Hard to find any reason why she won’t be an outright contender.
9. ALLURE – lenny10 – This filly as with the previous also boasts consistent form, extremely consistent in fact. Distance, however clearly stands out as being this runners Achilles heel. Simply put I would expect her to run out of track. She hasn’t run less than 8 furlongs in nine starts, and has carved out a niche for herself around the 9-10 furlong mark, with quite a degree of success. A little ‘pie in the sky’ without any stats to refer to, but possibly had the track been damp, it may have settled the pace enough for her to stay within contention during the early stages. But alas this is not the case. She’ll be running on, but the post will come too quickly.
10. SEEKING A NATIVE – domedriver – The performances half a dozen or so races back would’ve certainly had this girl in the hunt, but a fairly regular curve downwards has unfortunately befallen her. After close examination, although not thorough, the road back to her potential looks to be quite a tricky one. I find it difficult to think an outright challenge for this race will come from this girl, especially since there’s also the step up from allowance level to deal with as well.
11. SUPERFILLYOUS – lygerbomb – Although a very solid, honest allowance runner, unfortunately the speed simply isn’t there to have much of an impact on the result in this event. Obviously the surface and race length look to be right on the money, so one never can tell if that second wind might hit, and a big speed number hits the board, but I’d tend to lean elsewhere.
12. OUR EIGHT – sinner – Speeds certainly look to have suffered a bit of late, but it would appear this is likely down to a graded campaign. Prior to this were regular stakes, where some impressive speed was on display, consequently this mare cannot be written off. Odds of 11/1 offer some nice value indeed, and longer than what this one probably deserves. A slight lack of distance may come into the equation, but this is marginal enough to be just about ignored. This lady has the ability, and there are reasonably clear reasons to explain recent modest form. I’d be prepared to state this one will be challenging outright by the stretch.
13. SHIPHOLE – confessor – This filly finds herself with the longest of odds along the board, and the reason, as I’m sure the trainer is aware, is simply a distance issue. Had the race been a two furlongs or more longer, then try and stop this one, but the post is going to come an awful long way too early. That’s not to say she has no chance of a top five, as she seems t have made quite a habit of it lately, but the lack of extra ground is really going to effect her chances.
14. PARALLAX – malekfarms – Mysteriously, like so many others in this race, once again we have yet another runner suffering with relative poor form of late. Sven starts ago in a G1 a speed of 106 was pasted on the board, but performances since haven’t been close even with a drop back to allowances. Conditions this time around, as with many other races recently are seemingly spot on, but it just seems there’s no reason to expect a sudden return to the potential this horse has shown.
Well it would seem GRSimsters might have this one covered, Imperial Oats(Aus) looks to be the one to beat, and I think she will prevail, but there are a few capable of seeing to it that she doesn’t. Beatiful Buda is the obvious first choice, followed by Our Eight and Stratusphere. And it’s in that order I believe the top four will finish. The remainder of the field will be an extremely close affair with nearly all of them around the same sort of speeds and form.
Good luck all, and I hope they come back healthy.
Cheers