In 2006, it’s a whole new ballgame. With the universal horse birthday of January 1, there’s a whole bunch of new kids in town, and they’re looking good. There’s some fresh freckled faces in the neighborhood.
Yes, there’s some new kids in town, with some brand new styles. They are just passing through California this weekend, for an important Grade I for the new sophomore turf specialists, the $500,000 Japan Racing Association Stakes over nine furlongs on firm turf, but if things work out they’re gonna stay a while.
The difference between this Grade I in California and the other graded stakes race on grass for three-year-olds in North America this weekend, the Grade III Panhandle Park Derby, is that in Florida, there’s only one Top 20 horse racing. In California, not only are five of the Top 20 grass horses in the classic division here, so is the second-ranked filly. Multiple graded winner Tenacious V takes a stab at the boys, but faces some potential superstars, such as fourth-ranked Hail Cesario and top-ranked Very Silver. It’s a full field of fourteen looking to embark on the same path that brought you last year’s grass stars, such as Horseshoe Bay and Manifest Destiny.
Haafhd Hollandia(GB) [Haafhd(GB)-Carnival Smuggling, by Gone West] represents the stables of racer64, and this colt has managed in seven brief starts to hit the board six times. This marks his first attempt at graded competition, but he’s twice stakes-placed in the Northwest, and distance shouldn’t be a major hassle, considering he broke his maiden going a mile-and-a-sixteenth. His figures are still in their developmental stages, as they’re still peaking in the mid-80s, and they’re comfortable in the middle echelon of the field, which compared to the main contenders is a strike against him, but he’s a versatile runner. He’s comfortable stalking the lead, or he can close from far back; here, he’d be better advised to save up a hearty stretch kick, considering the pace figures to be solid, with a lot of horses sitting chilly just behind the early pace. He should improve in this spot, but whether it would be enough for a top-5 finish is debatable.
Isle Of Revenge [Strong Hope x Nureyev] is bred to run all day and night for trainer braylee, and the colt, ranked #12 in the division, has managed to do just that in winning four of his first six starts. In fact, this well-bred colt has transformed into something of a powerhouse upon moving from dirt to grass, and is currently unbeaten on the surface. What makes him even more intriguing is his successful debut at a graded level, with a startling and impressive victory in Connecticut’s Grade III Phenom Stakes last out. He went out very hard and very fast in a field of fourteen, eventually opening up a six-length lead entering the stretch, and while that lead withered quickly down to a two-length win in the last quarter-mile, what was most impressive is that he sprinted clear from a far outside post and still managed to hang on for a reasonably comfortable win. A repeat of that would be most impressive, particularly considering his inside post here, but it’s not expected to come to pass; indeed, he’ll likely have some company, likely from Clemstone(IRE), to keep him reined in. Still, the improvement in his figs has been pretty modest, even after earning a 94 in the Phenom, and should continue to rise at this distance and level. Either this one is a budding monster, or he’s just a fashionable pick, but almost certainly he has the potential to roll in this spot with improving results; a very formidable foe who has a fine line to walk as a pacesetter.
Tenacious V [Vindication x Lear Fan] is the only filly here against a sea of colts, and her presence here, unlike the presence of two fillies in the Panhandle Park Oaks (the only graded grass route for fillies this week) seems like a more astute concept. Just for starters, this is the #2 filly on grass in her generation over a distance of ground, and the Oaks back east is supercharged with five of the top 20 fillies on grass (#3, #4, #5, #11, and #18, respectively). And then, there’s this: she’s darn good. Trained by peeps4, she’s 4-for-8 lifetime, and she’s 3-for-4 since switching to the lawn. This includes wins in the Grade III Flying Saucer against the boys last fall, and a three-length win in the Grade I DelPenn Storm Dog last out against fillies. The Storm Dog was particularly well-done, coming from about five lengths back, shuffled to eleventh before closing, splitting horses and drawing off late. It’s the type of performance that enabled her to become a finalist for the 2005 honors in her division, and a strong run here should aid her cause there. Her figs hover around 90 at present, and there’s room for improvement, but there are some finalists for 2005 awards here in the colt division as well, and while she should be uncorking a late kick and has beaten colts that way before, the competition might prove too intense for an outright victory. Still, don’t be surprised if she makes a strong showing to at least hit the board.
Early Riser(GB) [Beat Hollow(GB) x Event Of The Year] has been no worse than second in his career for the stables of badday, and all of those starts have come on the grass. He enters this off a three-race winning streak, all wins coming in stakes races. He’ll add pressure to the expected strong early pace, and he should enjoy the added ground without a lot of difficulty. That said, this is his graded stakes debut, against some pretty intense competition. While his figs are pretty solid, with a best of a 90 last out in Maryland, there are contenders here with figures much closer to 100. He should be able to improve sufficiently eventually to join the best in the division, particularly as the distances increase just a little bit more for him, but with a few colts here expected to let their strong stretch-running tendencies takes over, he’ll need to have enough left in the tank to outlast them. A softer pace would likely be to his benefit.
Clemstone(IRE) [Ballingarry(IRE)-Mesa, by Gone West] is lightly raced for the lou64 barn, but one race hints at a lot of potential to become something nice. This is his North American debut, his first race away from the confines of Ascot, but not his first tangle with graded-level company. He won his debut in September, and was a tiring fourth in the Grade II Manofjunk two back. Last out, though, he impressed many railbirds with a wire-to-wire score in allowance company, winning with enough left and attaining a 92 fig for his effort. It was a sparkling effort, but was it legit? This is his first start since then, and his fourth in the Grade II showed potential at this level, to be sure, but was this number rock solid enough to be maintained? Time will tell, though we’re inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt and believe he gained enough maturity from the stakes to have improved so much so fast. He’ll likely share some of the pacesetting load with Isle Of Revenge, who should be a little faster out of the blocks, but this is his first start beyond a mile-and-a-sixteenth, and he wilted rather sharply when dropping back in the Manofjunk. He’s capable enough, but will likely need to see another sharp upward spiral in his numbers to compete fully here.
Kirk The Captain [Selkirk-Hank’s Spit, by Notebook], representing corza1, had a busy juvenile season, with eleven starts last year. Alas, he only has a maiden win to his credit thus far, though he is twice stakes-placed on grass. His Grade I effort in the Digging The Grave left us a bit underwhelmed, with a poor performance that left him outrun at all points of call and beaten more than seventeen lengths. He’s at his best coming from well off the pace, but has had very little success breaking through versus graded competition on grass. Here, he’s now trying to go beyond a mile for the first time. The sire is usually good on grass, and the dam-sire is reliable for sprinters, so his abilities at turf sprints should be solid. It’s extending his run a full quarter-mile longer than he’s used to that’s a bit harder to get behind. His late run will need to be ultra-sharp to give him his fairest shake, especially given that his speed figs are generally the lowest in the field.
Speightful [Speightstown-Reiner, by A.P. Indy] comes from the remar12000 stables, and he’s been on the board six of eight starts. While early tries at graded-level company were less than successful, the trainer has been astute in giving his charge all options, and it’s paid off. After failing in a pair of Grade IIIs, and showing absolute indifference to dirt, he returned to racing on grass and has won twice and finished second once in his last three starts, all in stakes company and all at a mile. He likes to come from off the pace, and provided a heart-stopping moment last out when he very narrowly nosed out a win in Colorado on the wire. His figs rose nicely between his first three grass efforts and his last three attempts, and should continue to stay steady at this level. Distance might be a bit of a question mark, as he’s sired by one of the fastest sprinters of the last five years, but he’s out of a mare whose only win came in a turf route, so this race should speak a lot about his future prospects going longer against other three-year-olds. Nevertheless, previous tests for class have come up short, so a reversal in form versus graded foes should be in order before recommending with confidence.
The Missing(IRE) [High Chaparral(IRE)-Dear Slew, by Gone West] represents kaif013, and this colt has improved since seeing the green for the first time. He won his maiden (over this course) and a South Dakota stakes before coming up short last time at Washington, and takes a leap of faith against Grade I foes here. His wins showed a lot of benefit from coming off the pace, a lesson that missed out on a good translation last out, when he was a no-factor fifth in the restricted Cavalcade Cup. While his late run is pretty nice, and his pedigree shows that he’ll do just fine at these middle distances, his numbers don’t scare much of anyone, with a career-high of 81 in the Cavalcade. Considering most in this field have either run at least a 90 or shown the capacity to improve in that direction, he’s a little behind the curve after five starts for this level. His sire’s a good turf producer, and his dam had better experience at middle distances on dirt, so his options are open. Here, though, he appears to need a strong boost to equal some of these at their best.
Bead Two(GB) [Beat Hollow(GB)-Out Of This World, by Spinning World], for bodgit, comes from unexpectedly successful bloodlines. His dam was only an dirt route allowance winner herself, but managed to produce a full sister, Beadmeister(GB), who was a three-time stakes winner on grass. His own career, though, outshines that of his sis, as he started off his career with four consecutive wins, including a pair of Grade III events. But after that, he tailed off for the remainder of 2005, with some decent, intermittently erratic results. He was a stalwart closer late in France’s Tiny Toes, but while beaten only a length-and-a-quarter, he was still fourth. He finished well in the Nationwide in Ireland to be second, but was no threat to the winner, and was overmatched in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf, while again showing some late moves in the lane. Last out, in the Digging The Grave, he never strayed far from the action, but just made a mild late stab while maintaining third throughout the stretch. He’s kept good company with some of the best juveniles on grass last year, but despite a strong stretch run and some steadily improving figs, he’s in a bit of a slump currently. Added distance shouldn’t bother him, his running style is solid for these conditions, he’s only failed to be a top 5 horse just once, and his numbers, while not the best in the field, are rounding into form. And he’s used to strong competition. Now, if he could just snap out of his current funk…
Creepshow(IRE) [Rock Of Gibraltar(IRE)-Deputy Flanders, by Deputy Minister] is one of those entries, for trainer lenny28, that seems to have started out under a blessed sign. He’s 2-for-3 lifetime, but debuted strongly with an 85 in a Japan MSW in October. He shipped to Rhode Island and won a stakes there with a 91, and a subsequent foray into graded company, in DelPenn’s Epiphany Too, was very solid, as he closed strongly and galloped out well while third, beaten only two lengths and change and earning a fig of 94 for his hard work. The sire is a very good grass stallion, while the dam was a route winner on dirt, and the combination suggests that the more ground he faces, the better off he’ll be. He’s shown nothing but solid speed figures and good efforts in his three starts, and wasn’t thrown for a loop against grade I opposition, and odds are nine furlongs should hold a lot of appeal. Lightly raced, and seemingly born mature, there’s a lot of potential here.
Tricky Green [Greenwood Lake-Reindeer Trick, by Green Dancer] has come to attention for graywolf10 since a surface switch from mediocrity on the dirt to the lawn, where he’s currently unbeaten in two starts. He broke his maiden on dirt with a decent number, but was never able to replicate that effort versus allowance fields. Upon moving to the grass, though, he used a run from mid-pack to score a pair of victories while sprinting. The sire was more precocious at two than at three, but this colt has some good speed figs in his two sprints on grass. He hasn’t been able to extend his sprinter’s kick beyond a seven-panel dash, though, and has yet to be tested for class against better; his development at three begins now, but perhaps not in the most auspicious of places.
Very Silver [Silver Ghost x Secretariat] is a unique study. Still eligible for a non-winners-of-two-other-than allowance, he debuted injured and was laid up for an extensive almost-three-month break. Upon his return, a surface switch and a change in ownership, his grass debut was a solid romp, utilizing a middlemove to steamroll the competition by two lengths. And from there, a career was born for this representative of acote. He moved a little too late in the Bass and wound up second, and then adjusted his tactics to easily take the GSR Diamond, peaking with a speed fig of 94. He found a solid style of attack, but it wasn’t quite sharpened enough in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf, where he was a belated second, beaten two lengths. Last time in the DelPenn Epiphany Too, his fig was in the low-90s, but he was no factor while fourth. While all that was going on, he ascended to #1 on the soph charts with a bullet, which is where he comes into his first attempt at a mile-and-an-eighth. He’s pretty solid on form, an even match on numbers, and has a pedigree supporting an opportunity to run all day. He’ll sit in the middle of the chase pack and should begin to roll late; if the pace isn’t too sharp, he’ll begin to gather momentum about a half-mile out.
Cortez(IRE) [High Chaparral(IRE) x Conquistador Cielo] has a good handle on grass sprints for slipknot22, and the mile was a solid hurdle that he cleared once on dirt. The next stop is to combine these two elements into one solid effort going a quarter-mile longer on turf than he’s been before. He won his debut sprinting on turf, and was third in the Grade III Bad Deal next out, and was a no-account sixth in the Nationwide subsequently. After switching to dirt to win his NW1x allowance, he floundered at a repeat try at a mile stakes race and returned to the green to capture a sprint stakes, with an improved number to show for it. Now, he’s attempting to negotiate a route for the first time, and while the sire should be a great source for stamina, the dam-sire (despite the ’82 Belmont win) isn’t completely known for a lot more than a mile. He’ll be a stalker here, but how might he take to added ground? It seems a lot to ask to dive into the deep end of the route pool without warming up to it a little bit more.
Hail Cesario [Seeking The Gold x Northern Dancer] is the favorite, but he draws an outside post for trainer catahoula. He deserves his favoritism, as he’s not only the #4 colt among the new sophomore class on grass, he’s a perfect 5-for-5 to start his career. A California maiden win was followed quickly by a trio of Jamaica stakes wins over a mile, with some fair speed figs (an 82, then a 91 and finally an 85) and a combined seven-and-a-half length margin of victory. Then on his first try, he captured his first graded stakes, and a lulu it was: he utilized his mid-pack move to capture the Grade I DelPenn Epiphany Too by almost two lengths. The win was impressive enough to both earn him a speed figure of 97 (the best in the field) and a spot on the 2005 year-end awards ballot in his division. This colt is a very good-looking horse, and a formidable foe for this field. But there is a drawback, and that’s post position. How much does it impact horses in the Sim? The answer you get depends entirely on what everyone thinks of the influence of gate position. Isle Of Revenge won a Grade III gate-to-wire from #14 last out, so it can be done. It shouldn’t impact a closer such as this as much as it would a horse with a ton of speed, in theory, but the truth lies somewhere within the Sim equations. The take in this spot is that the impact should be negligible, but a stronger late run might be had by at least one of the other contenders on top of their current form.
My selections:
- Creepshow(IRE)
- Hail Cesario
- Very Silver
- Isle Of Revenge
- Tenacious V
Good luck to all, and happy racing.