If this is January, we must be thinking three-year-olds, right?
This time last year, was anybody thinking an awful lot about Horseshoe Bay? Did anyone have the foresight to consider Manifest Destiny? Was Redsadky more than a megabyte in his daddy’s eye? No. Last January, we didn’t have much of an inkling that the grass stars of tomorrow were appearing before our very eyes. That’s the glory of the universal horse birthday of January 1, when two-year-olds become three-year-olds, and the pursuit of Derbys and Guineas began to heat up like a Lean Cuisine in a microwave. This weekend, the new sophomore class begins to jockey for position, and their quest to earn green on the green starts this weekend.
This weekend, the grass-inclined three-year-olds are bicoastal-curious, with a pair of graded turf races at nine furlongs in both California and Florida. Our focus here is on Florida, in the Grade III Panhandle Park Derby, a $125,000 stakes at a mile-and-an-eighth. Is it a wide-open affair? You tell me—five horses are co-favored at 5-1 in the ten horse field.
Excellent A.J. [Fusaichi Pegasus x Blushing Groom(FR)] starts from the hedge for the barn of excmeeting, and is one of two fillies among the boys assembled here. Why, exactly, she’s bypassing the Panhandle Park Oaks is a little mysterious: that race, which is the race following this one on the Florida card, only drew 11 fillies, and while it did attract five of the top 20 grass fillies of her generation, she would still likely face an easier task there than here against the boys. Nevertheless, she’s a speedy filly, winning her debut last out wire-to-wire, and she’s bred to like a lot more ground than this. Her lone figure was a 74, and while that number should improve as the distances and experiences increase, it’s still 24 points lower than the best last-out speed figure. This might not be a bad way to season this filly, but she’s a very tough sell in a very competitive marketplace; watch her back against her own gender next out.
Maverick [Gone West-A.P. Magic, by Forty Niner], for desperado2, is descended from a Grade II route winner on grass, and that’s already one mark in this co-co-co-co-co-favorite’s…uh, favor. The other ones are rooted in performance. It’s a laundry list of positive attributes to recommend this colt: steady improving figs, topping off with a speed figure of 94 last time out, in the Grade III Phenom Stakes (where he was a fast-closing second at this distance); a lot of consistency, as he’s never been worse than second in five starts; a solid jock and strong trainer; and an appealing closing kick. But the downsides are considerable, also. He’s only won his maiden three back, and hasn’t had a lot of great racing luck against winners so far. The distance should be good for him, but might his inside post be a drawback for his late run?
Wise One [Sahkee-Lord Carson II, by Carson City] runs under the silks of n2racing2, and this colt is 3-for-8 lifetime, all on the lawn. He’s never failed to earn a check, and has been in each of his efforts, usually from a stalking position. But his tests come in this spot for distance and class: he’s never been over a mile, and his one previous graded start was a tiring fifth last summer in the Grade III Bad Deal. His dam was a stakes winner while sprinting on grass, so logic suggests that he should be near the front with these, but his speed figs are a touch lacking, and he could use a bit of work at rating his natural speed for his strongest effort.
Desert Lion(IRE) [Desert King(IRE)-Afleet Dynamo, by Dynaformer] has been focusing on the lawn for trainer seagypsy, and his best success has come while sprinting early in his career. He’s 4-for-8 lifetime, and he’s a streaky devil, as his wins come in pairs: two wins, then three unsuccessful efforts, followed by another pair of wins. He’s going to be tested for class and distance here as well; all four wins have come at distances between five-and-a-half and six-and-a-half furlongs, and while he closed for fourth in the seven-panel Grade III Up North Juvenile, he struggled in Ireland’s Grade I High Flyer last September at a mile. This will be his first shot beyond a mile, and while he does have a kick to roll out late, he’ll need to be able to sustain that charge late in this nine-furlong test. His figs are fair—his 87 last out was a career-high, though in that sprint he only made a mild bid before fading—but are still a notch below some of the chief contenders at their best.
Listen To The Lion (IRE) [Rock Of Gibraltar(IRE)-Allen’s Minstrels(FR), by Irish River(FR)] is from the “super” barns, this time, super10. A half to last year’s Boston Derby winner Rebellion, this Grade III winner (of the Apparently Juvenile last out) has hit the board six out of seven starts and makes his three-year-old debut here. He’ll come from off the pace, and he seems to finally have adjusted to high-class competition, breaking through with a 95 fig last out with a strong late move, after his first two attempts at graded starts, a third and a tenth in his past performances. His 94 is the second-highest last-out fig in here, and he appears to be on the same course as Rebellion, who also won the Apparently at 2 with strong speed figures to match. He’s a main threat coming late, and with his pedigree, connections, the circuit leader in the irons and his strong abilities, he’s probably the main 5-1 co-co-co-co-co-favorite to beat.
Sky Low Low [Sky Mesa x Northern Baby] is the horse who has the best last-out speed fig, in case your curiosity was getting seriously piqued by the constant…uh, beating of a dead horse. His 98 is not only the best last-out fig here, but it might be the best grass speed fig of a Sim juvenile in 2005, even if not all juveniles from last year. He rode a stalking trip in a Michigan stakes to victory last out, and it was a very sharp effort. But was it legit? The sire isn’t known for his turf prowess—his stats skew more towards dirt success over two crops—and the dam-sire, one you’d expect to be doing better on grass, has had better luck on dirt as well, by about a 3-to-2 margin. He’s 3-for-5 this year for trainer jk52, his stakes-debut last out being an impressive one, and his numbers jumped significantly higher when stretching out to a mile. This is his first try over more ground, and breeding hints the extra distance is negligible, but his graded debut is a tough spot for further advancement. Basically, the concern should be: will he bounce to Earth? Anything is possible, and I’m inclined to believe that while he might not improve his numbers further here, he’s not likely to crash, either. It’s a challenging spot, and if he’s close to a more honest pace, his chances of surviving an onslaught of late kicks improves nicely over nine panels. (Trivia note: the winners of this race since 2003 have all broken 100 speed figures in their victories.)
Great White [Cozzene-Goldlush, by War Chant] is the stablemate of the other filly in the field, Excellent A.J., for excmeeting. Like her stablemate, she’s a first-out winner making an ambitious stakes debut in this Grade III, instead of the more logical placement in the 11-filly Panhandle Park Oaks following this race on the Florida card. The debut win earned a decent 74 fig which pales when compared to the colts opposing her, and the win was achieved more from off the pace than her counterpart on the hedge. This sets up the rather intriguing possibility that Excellent A.J. would make a most excellent rabbit here. Trouble is, that also sets it up for some pretty intense late speed, dude. While it is hard to project, even at this stage, just how a young three-year-old debut winner might fare when stepping up in class like this, between Sky Low Low’s best fig in the field, and Listen To The Lion(IRE) and his supercharged pedigree and late kick, the fillies appear at first blush to be looking at a most daunting task versus the boys. She’s bred for middle distances, and should be near the front end for this, and might have a role here with about a half-mile left, but her ability to stay is going to be sharply tested here.
Chanteney(IRE) [Theatrical(IRE)-Sexual Orgasm, by Cozzene] has a most provocative pedigree, to be sure, and only a maiden win in two starts to his credit, but this trainee of slewdown isn’t quite in the same boat with the fillies (who both won upon their debuts and wait now to face the starting gate for the second time). For one, the figs here are a little bit higher in his maiden win than the fillies had, winning last out with an 83 (compare that with the winning figs of 74 for the ladies). For another, the way he won was in a much more impressive fashion. He broke alertly, stretched out to a four-length lead on the field, and won with something left, by two lengths. Granted, maiden company is much different than a Grade III race, but the implication here is that his early speed is pretty doggone sharp. Now, whether it can go untested or hold up to the expected deep threats is conjecture. Plus, his stakes debut comes a furlong longer than he’s used to, and, oh, it’s a Grade III, too. But he should be leading them through their paces early on, and will have to adjust for a more honest, less headstrong approach to extend it through the mile-and-an-eighth.
Destiny Dance [Dubai Destination-Hard Hill, by Danehill] represents topicountb, and tries the grass here for the first time. It’s a little ambitious to try and debut versus some hard-hitters with a lot of turf experience, but it’s not out of character for this colt with a strong pedigree for the lawn. His best dirt figs are in the high-80s, with an eighth in the Movieland Futurity last out and an eleventh in the Darling-Squash Futurity being his best graded results. Ideally a mid-pack threat, he should begin to move at some point on the final turn, should he find conditions to his liking. You have to respect the trainer and the substantial grass-leaning pedigree, but no horse has won this race without at least one start on the turf prior. And this field is difficult enough with the presence of some solid grass stakes winners without worrying about measuring up to the kind of class it would take to knock it out of the park first time out.
Wilderness Rules [Canadian Frontier-Ali’s Door, by Lit De Justice] has a sprinting pedigree for trainer rlogans: Canadian Frontier won the six-furlong Bold Ruler at Belmont in 2004, and dam-sire Lit De Justice won the 1996 Breeders Cup Sprint. Ergo, it can be assumed he’d be more apt at sprinting on dirt. However, no one told the pinhookers or the horse. He’s hit the board in four of six turf starts, and is stakes-placed three times over on the surface. Alas, none of these fine results include a solid performance versus graded competition. In the Grade I DelPenn Epiphany Too, he was never a “Canadian” factor, as it were, finishing thirteenth. Despite the pedigree, he seems to be able to hold his own going over a distance of ground, and likes to come from the rear late. His figs, though, do leave a lot to the imagination, staying in the low-80s at their best. He’ll need to take advantage of his preferred tactics for best results in this complex spot. Watch, though, for this colt should he re-emerge on the dirt, as his figs might pop first start back there.
My selections:
- Listen To The Lion(IRE)
- Sky Low Low
- Maverick
- Chanteney(IRE)
- Desert Lion(IRE)
Good luck to all, and happy racing.