DelPenn’s Champion’s Day is like a Sim state fair: a little something for all ages at all distances on all surfaces, minus the deep-fried Twinkies. They’ve largely segregated the juvenile races away from the events for older horses, and the New Jersey track got possession of the lion’s share of races for juveniles: there are eleven races, restricted as well as open events, on the Champion’s Day card here for juveniles. Delaware and Pennsylvania both have just two races apiece for juveniles, by comparison.
One of the most contentious of these, with the requisite trash-talking on the various message boards, is the Grade I, $500,000 Digging The Grave Stakes, being contested over seven furlongs on grass for two-year-old colts. There’s been a bit of jawing about Pub Crawl(IRE), a bit of gum-flapping on the merits of Sharp Bend(IRE) and Bead Too(GB), but ultimately the role favorite has been handed to Storm Tapper, who, it has been said, may “look like a monster”. Here’s the rundown of a full field of fourteen two-year-olds aiming at Grade I glory.
Northern Chant [War Chant x Raise A Native] draws an inside post as the #3 juvenile turf sprinter for jockeymax1, and he’s a bit overlooked among these in the trash-talk. A two-time stakes winner and Grade I winner at this distance, he figures to be speedy from the hedge, as he proved when he wired the Grade I Nationwide Stakes with ease two back. He wasn’t quite up to the challenge of the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf, where he received a poor trip and was always outrun to finish thirteenth. He gets a better jockey for this, however, and with the hedge and a lot of speed, it would appear he’d be the one to catch…except for having the talented Pub Crawl(IRE) on the outside, thus providing a tough duel up front early on. The Nationwide win gave him a strong speed figure, but it isn’t the best in the field, and while he should be a solid source of pace, he won’t be alone up front. He’s impeccably bred and is ideally suited to this distance, so the question will be how intent is he on being the frontrunner, can he survive the early machinations of Pub Crawl(IRE) on his outside, and how much will he expend to that end? Certainly, he’s one to watch next year at these middle-distance sprints.
Phyl The Cat [Cat Thief-Nurse Harley, by Afleet] is up next, and he is another of a long line of “Phyl”s making their way into racing society for trainer tom. His pedigree is very solid for this, as he’s the first foal for his dam, a stakes winner at this distance and surface. He’s a graded winner, with a victory in the Grade III Grand Critter Mile two back, while in full-on stalking mode, which gives a good account of his usual preferred approach to racing. It’s a big field, and he’s not shown evidence of a good closer’s kick yet, which might be required to both deal with what should be a strong pace and a lot of other late speed. His future may lie more accurately at the mile, truthfully, and his figures, while decent, are matched or beaten by twelve other horses in this field, so he may need to accelerate up the maturity curve to have his best shot here.
Storm Tapper [Tapit-Malt Storm, by Storm Cat] seems to be the monster in the closet no one wants to tangle with. This trainee of runpastem9 has the best last-out figure of 94, and he’s achieved that twice, which makes him very deserving of his favoritism. He’s come to life late in the year since a surface switch finally took root in September, with two wins in three grass starts since. He took the Grade III Omnipotent Juvenile with a strong middle move to net him his first 94, then faltered turning back in the Grade III Flying Saucer two back when stretching out. Upon a return to the sprint distances he seems to enjoy, he registered his other 94 in a North Florida stakes while enjoying his usual stalking trip. His pedigree is very strong: all four foals of his stakes-winning dam have earned over $100,000 in their careers, and as he matures he might develop more of an affinity for middle-distance routes on grass. He should be strong in the meat of the race, on the turn for home, but if there’s something that appears a bit worrisome, it’s the jockey, who has but 7 wins on the year, and a 6% win percentage. Though he’s the post-time chalk, the top jock on the circuit will instead be on Pub Crawl(IRE), which might tell you something about what his prospects could end up being. He’s intimidating, but beatable.
Peacock Waltz [Macho Uno-Again In A Storm, by Storm Bird] represents oaklawn88, and this colt switched surfaces from dirt to turf early on in his career, but without much in the way of effect. Sure, he closed furiously in an Eastern Kentucky stakes three back, which netted him a career-best fig of 84, and he is a stakes-winner (taking the Aberlour in Virginia four back), but there’s something troubling about a colt who backtracked from his best fig into numbers in the mid-70s, which is about 15 points lower than his counterparts here at their best. The pedigree is a solid one, but the dam was a strong dirt router, who got better as she got older. This colt is very nice, and at 3 he should begin to appreciate added ground a lot more, but there’s not much in his two-year-old form to recommend him in his graded debut. A surface switch in his three-year-old debut should get him to pop nicely. He’ll be coming late, to be sure, but he’s going to require a lot more ground to unleash his best late charge.
Hard Rock [Roar-Girls Girls Girls, by Capote] comes from the gcphantom barn, and has what I’ve found to be a very good grass sire mixing with a dam with a strong turf foundation. The result has been a colt that’s caught fire upon the surface switch to the lawn, with three wins and a second in four tries on the weeds. He’s won two stakes in a row, with consistent and solid numbers each time out, and now aims for a lot bigger territory. He tries graded company for the first time, as well as making his debut beyond six-and-a-half furlongs, and while he’s more likely to find the going rougher against the best of the division, he surely will appreciate the longer distances, the better of which to utilize his stretch run. Figure him to be in the mix in the stretch, if only by making some headway with the extra sixteenth, and look for him to get better at the longer sprints and short miles at 3.
Bead Two(GB) [Beat Hollow(GB)-Out Of This World, by Spinning World], for bodgit, has a strong lineage, with a stakes-winning full sister who has experienced a lot of great success at middle distances on grass. He’s making a name for himself, though, at present, with a pair of Grade III grass wins and a career-starting four-race winning streak already under his belt. His mid-pack running style has already been proven effective in the shorter sprints, though when he’s branched out to distances longer than this sprint, his late charge has been a lot of “close but no Cigar”. He was beginning to move belatedly when sixth in the Juvenile Turf last out; was a little late to get moving when second behind Northern Chant in the Nationwide, and was gobbling up a ton of ground late in the Tiny Toes three back before the wire came, winding up fourth. He possesses a strong kick, and his pedigree hints that middle distances are where it’s at for him later in his career; while he remains #4 in the division, with steady figures into the mid-80s, the seven panels might not be enough ground to earn that Grade I win he’s been very close to nabbing. As an exotics wager, though, his closing kick ranks as one of the strongest in the field, so using him there would certainly be wise.
Spare T(IRE) [Theatrical(IRE) x Danehill] is another “super” entry (this time, for stable super28), and with five starts, he’s one of the most lightly-raced entrants here (only Stag Night(IRE), with three prior starts, is less experienced). Hedoesn’t seem to like sprinting as a full-time vocation, as his only win sprinting was his debut at six furlongs. Following a restricted Smackdown meltdown (an uninspired sixth), he’s run much better as the distances improved, and his speed figures reflect this effort. Though he’s won only once in that time, in Washington, his numbers have increased quite nicely, and he’s been pretty close, without finding just the proper rhythm to get him to the wire first. He prefers to sit more in mid-pack and make one run when the pace starts to collapse, but he’s been rather green in doing so, so while his numbers have improved, his results remain less than completely successful. He’s bred, though, to appreciate more real estate, and seven furlongs doesn’t appear initially to be his cup of tea. Still, he’s well-bred, and as he matures he should develop nicely into a strong turf horse in the middle distances.
Curlwaa(AUS) [Bel Esprit-Blaze Of Glory II, by Fusaichi Pegasus] is next, and he’s a pretty steady grass runner for trainer greeny: six grass starts, six paychecks, including a pair of stakes wins. Longer sprints suit him just fine. He prefers to be pretty close to the early lead, with hopes to take over when the pace collapses in front of him. Fair enough, right? But as much as the seven furlongs is definitely desirable for him, this time it’s a bit more challenging. He’s facing graded opponents for the first time, and these opponents by and large have stronger numbers. Moving up in class is likely to require raising his game to another level. To get there, maybe he’ll need to be rated a little harder to reserve enough energy. He’s got possibilities, particularly since his dam was a winner going longer on grass, but it’s a tricky spot to make a graded debut, even at his optimal distance.
First Refusal(IRE) [Refuse To Bend(IRE)-Audi Five K, by Kris S.] is the first foal from a well-bred dam, who won sprinting on grass, and trainer theatrical has him entered here to take another shot at graded company. It didn’t work in the GSR Diamond three back, where he passed tired horses to get up for fourth, and it worked equally as well in the Dalesbark Cup, where he was no factor in eighth. Sprinting appeals to him, and so does coming from off the pace, but his numbers have peaked in the low-to-mid-80s, and his wins, both of them, have come at the much shorter five-and-a-half furlong distance. He’s bred for longer, and his race four back in the Turfstar looked initially promising, but his recent form is going to have to get better in a hurry to be competitive here.
Kirk The Captain [Selkirk-Hank’s Spit, by Notebook] represents…the…barn…of…trainer….corza1. This colt…has…a lot…of….experience, with…ten…starts in…his…career. Getting a good performance out of him, though, is like trying to coax a good performance out of William Shatner. For, in those ten starts, his best speed fig is an 82, the lowest career-best in the field, and he has only a maiden and an allowance win on his résumé. That one allowance win did come at this distance, it should be noted, plus he is twice stakes-placed, and that career-best fig came when he was closing strongly in an Ohio stakes two back. Additionally, he is a closer, although that’s simply because he’s not been used in any other tactical fashion so far. He’s only failed to earn a check twice in these ten starts, so he has some consistency. But the 82 still comes up rather weak in a field with so many stronger speed figures in bigger races, so…he’ll…have to…go…where…no…man has…gone…before…just to get a piece.
Vermont Victory [Two Punch-Two Mile Victory(IRE), by Theatrical(IRE)] is another one who really has woken up when switching surfaces here. This wtas02 trainee won his maiden on grass when debuting on this surface, and then followed up quickly with a stakes win in Michigan stretching out to seven-and-a-half furlongs. Further stretching, while within the scope of his pedigree, hasn’t yet panned out, but then, he’s been thrown into the fire against Grade I competitors since that stakes win: he passed tired horses to claim third in the GSR Diamond, was a mild ninth in the Juvenile Turf, but he did relish the yielding ground when he was a fast-closing, belated third last out in the Duetoburst. Here, he’s similarly thrown to the wolves, and yet his form against some first-rate grass horses keeps him alive. The Duetoburst at today’s distance was strong enough to merit a 91 fig, and his late speed is welcome news here, as it’ll come in very useful. He’s seasoned well versus better, and comes back to a favorable distance. Is there room for a breakthrough performance? We’ll see—he’s bred for longer than this, but that lies ahead at 3.
Sharp Bend(IRE) [Refuse To Bend(IRE)-Queen Deputy, by Deputy Minister] is Bead Two(GB)’s entrymate here for the bodgit stable, and this one also has a strong lineage, descending from a Grade II-winning mare (winner of the Adelaide Mile in 2001). He made it work for him pretty quick: you gotta admire a horse who breaks his maiden in a Grade III race (in Arizona’s Sprinklers Are Broke Again Stakes). Since then, he’s been a little spotty, with a ninth in the GSR Diamond followed up by a hard-charging second in Ireland’s Serial LC(IRE), but he possesses a solid late kick that fits well here, provided the early pace is strong, which it should be. Is Bead Two(GB) a rabbit for him, or vice versa, or are they both running on their own merits? More likely it’s the latter, but with as sharp pacesetters as this race has, a little extra help would suit this entry more, as both haves are confirmed stretch runners. On his own merits, though, this one seems to have a little further to develop before evolving into the formidable deep threat he has shown the potential to be
Pub Crawl(IRE) [El Prado(IRE)-Bonezig(IRE), by Giant’s Causeway] has a sort of good news/bad news vibe going on. The good news is that he’s the top-ranked juvenile turf sprinter here. He’s won five of six lifetime for trainer stormborn, and is a two-time Grade I winner in his juvenile campaign (the Guinness and the Bass Ale, ironically enough), both of which were at today’s distance. He’s a speedster, leading at all but one point of call in each of five wins. His speed figures have cracked the 90 barrier twice, which has only been done with one other member of the field. He successfully carried his speed a mile in winning the Preview Cup two back. He’s a precocious colt with a load of potential at 3. The bad news? Well, for one, he draws post #13 to try and carry his speed seven panels here. Even following that draw, he faces another potent early speed horse who drew the rail, Northern Chant. Those two are certain to act like an episode of Blind Date and hook up early and often, and should he manage to survive both of these things, will he have anything left to hold off a closing maneuver of someone like Sharp Bend(IRE), Bead Two(GB) or Storm Tapper? Finally, his race in the Juvenile Turf last out was underwhelming, stalking early and fading to fourth late. Considering he’s bred to run a long, long way, and that he has possessed a lot of speed in his other starts, was it an off day, or a portent of things to come? We’re inclined to think that one was a fluke, but this spot is most challenging indeed. A top jock, a lot of speed, vast amounts of class, but the post position does bother us, and so does the potential for fireworks on the front end in a duel. It’s a tough spot, but might his back class hold up?
Stag Night(IRE) [Election Day(IRE) x Deerhound] is the most lightly-raced colt here, with just three starts under his belt. He’s also, in the wake of so many top pedigrees, modestly bred. He’s come out swinging; though he has just a maiden win, he’s stakes-placed at six-and-a-half-furlongs, a near-miss at Hong Kong last out. He’s improved his numbers each start, and his last was a competitive 87 fig, which ranks him right in the middle of these. His outside post shouldn’t hamper his chances much, but his lack of experience makes him a bit easier to resist, with as many horses here that have had either more starts or better quality of starts. He’s a deep threat, with a lot of potential at a mile based on bloodlines, and with a sharp pace expected, it should give him a chance to show us his moves late. Trainer ecosse should have him primed for a solid run, but in this graded debut, it’s a show-us-what-you-got-kid type of deal.
My selections:
- Sharp Bend(IRE)
- Northern Chant
- Pub Crawl(IRE)
- Vermont Victory
- Stag Night(IRE)
Good luck to all, happy racing, and happy holidays.