The grass division is usually contentious, providing a lot of fodder for message board debates (particularly this week, in the controversy surrounding the #1 miler Xtremely A Fan, who, if he was here, might have been a top choice) and a lot of top-notch racing. This weekend is no exception, and two top-ranked horses are headed for a showdown in Ireland on Saturday, in the Grade I, $500,000 Kingab Mile. The field is packed with stars, and it’s a clash of generations, genders, and ability levels in the field of fourteen assembled for the mile-long test over a firm course. Each threat has a strong argument to make for support, but they also each have an Achilles heel.
In one corner stands the top turf filly Jolie’s Song, ranked first in the turf classic division for older fillies and mares, and who has faced nothing but colts during her four-year-old campaign since January 22. Even though the schedule has led her to the top of her gender’s divisional rankings, she has only one win in 2005. In a second corner is the top three-year-old grass horse Manifest Destiny. He’s had six wins in a very successful three-year-old season, but he only could manage fifth in the Breeders Bowl Mile, his debut against older horses. Yet another corner features the Breeders Bowl Mile winner Mizzen Dizzie. He’s only fifth-ranked in the classic turf division for older horses, but his front-running win in the Mile established him as the new kid in town in graded competition.
Standing with those three contenders are some of the top grass horses at middle distances in the Sim, with four other top-20 horses in the field. There’s a wide array of talent, ability, and heart assembled here, with possible end-of-year honors awaiting one or more of these top flight of grass horses. The field:
Jolie’s Song [Buddha x Belong To Me] is an enigma. She’s been tested just once this year against her own sex, and against the colts, while the catspaw trainee has proven her ability to run well against the boys, she hasn’t beaten the boys since winning Japan’s Grade II Buddy Boy Mile on February 12. In the interim, she’s finished second three times, and third three times against the best of the colts. In the BB Mile last out, she never got into a rhythm of her own, finishing thirteenth, but might that partially be blamed on a runaway speed that wired the field? Regardless, she’s shown ability coming from off the pace in the near-misses she’s accumulated, but her speed figures have tailed off this year. While she’s been battling the boys and holding her own while doing so, might she have benefited a lot more from some more starts against other fillies? One cannot discount her, given her track record against the boys, but her form is a bit off, and recent tries against colts have been less than admirable. She’s likely earned a vacation, but for certain, maybe some starts against other fillies are warranted.
Friendofthefamily [Rahy-Triangular Inn, by Spinning World] certainly has a strong miler’s pedigree, but as trained by pedroza, he’s just now beginning to step up his game at a higher level of competition. He won the restricted Cavalcade Cup last out, and prefers a strong late run; barring a repeat of what happened in the BB Mile, could be in the mix in the lane. His numbers hint he’s at home on either surface, but recent speed figs suggest he’s poured it on late this year, and despite only having managed a third this year versus graded stakes company, he could be rounding into form at the right time. Last year, at 3, he found a respectable home for himself at a higher level, as he was Grade I-placed, and a return to his races back then might be just what he needs to break through.
Manifest Destiny [Storm Cat-Stardust Miracle, by Fusaichi Pegasus] has been a child of destiny in 2005, establishing himself as the top sophomore turf horse through three graded wins this year against his own generation. But his only attempt at facing older horses was compromised by the loose-on-the-lead Mizzen Dizzie in the BB Mile last time out. Sitting mid-pack and waiting for the speed to back up is his usual style, but in order for that to happen there has to be a sort of pace compromise up front. In the Mile, no such thing happened, and he only managed a much-too-late fifth. He’s at home at a mile, as the 4-for-7 record at the distance this year indicates, and the mid-pack run works well for him. But the two nagging questions are (1) is there enough pace this time around to turn it around, and (2) with only one start versus older, will he be able to step it up against his elders here? Well, there should be enough early speed to prevent Mizzen Dizzie from getting too far out of control up front, and this field isn’t stacked with a ton of high-echelon older runners like the mile might have been, but the rest is up to this trainee of tigerman.
Galleons [Huckster x Mari’s Book] doesn’t have a pedigree that screams “future superstar”, but as trained by leestroyer, he’s done remarkably well in terms of consistency: he has never failed to pick up a paycheck in each of his 22 starts. Still, the highest up the ladder he has gone for 21 of those starts is allowance level, where he’s earned nine of his ten wins. His last start—an even, fading fourth in the Grade II Fujimoto—was his stakes debut, as well as his graded debut, and while he managed to hold his own, he didn’t necessarily establish himself as a “future superstar”. His stalking style can get him into a little trouble, though it is how he does his best running, and his numbers have backed off from the strong numbers in allowance races last year at 4. He’s certainly a solid performer, with a decent graded result last out, but that was the week of the Breeders Bowl, so while the level of competition was solid, it didn’t have quite the cachet as that event did. The climb here should be a little steeper.
Come On Your Blues [A.P. Indy x Mr. Prospector] runs for amandas, and since finding out the grass really is greener when you’re running on it, he’s won five of eight. He liked the grass so much that he started off a perfect 5-for-5 before tailing off in three successive graded races. The step up in class hindered his development, as his numbers backtracked slightly before almost wiring a Grade III field in Illinois last out with a 110. He’ll provide enough early pressure to the expected early foot of Mizzen Dizzie, as he likes to have the lead early on, but the results from racing with the best on grass might not be seen until later. His figs since the surface switch confirm his career renaissance at 5 on grass, and though he’s nearing a Sim middle age of sorts, his good grass numbers so late in his racing life might extend his quality a little longer.
Mizzen Dizzie [Mizzen Mast-Pam Without Dancer, by Rahy] pulled off a head-scratcher last month in the BB Mile by taking off early and daring all the contenders to try and run him down. Thing is, no one did, and so a wire job was pretty easily dispatched. It’s not a tactic that often works in the Sim, but even as he tired down the stretch he still crossed the wire ahead by two lengths. Where in New York no one dared to challenge him on the pace, here in Ireland he will face some kind of pressure by the horse immediately to his inside, Come On Your Blues, and that might impact his race strategy. Trained by spain, he’s not a come-from-behind type, though he did it once this year in France, where he wound up third, and will need to harness his speed well enough to shake off any interlopers and hold off the closers in this spot. He can do it, as his numbers are very competitive with the best of these, but can he do it with all due speed? We’ll find out more here.
Leven Seventy Won [Danehill x Gulch] is a hard-knocking veteran trainee of skids, and his first half of ’05 has been much more stellar than his second half. Early on, he pulled off four stakes wins in a row, including a thrilling head win in the Grade I All Comers Stakes, and his figs put him at the head of the class of milers for at least a portion of the year. But the All Comers win was his last to date, and since then his efforts have found him coming up short on gas. After a second in a Japan Grade III, his figures have fallen more towards the 100-fig barrier, and his usual stretch kick has come up a bit lacking—as if the All Comers drained the gas tank. A middling seventh in the BB Mile last out did not pep him up, and even though his starts have been very generously spaced out, it seems that turning him out for a spell might be his best tonic. A talented six-year-old millionaire who’s still ranked in the top 20, he’s tailed off form-wise, and maybe a long vacation could make 7 a luckier age. Here, he figures to have a late kick, but as his recent numbers push him down the list, he’ll need to find his stride quickly.
Slew Can [Danzig x Seattle Slew], but can Slew? He runs for the barn of gsrprize, and since being picked up for a $35K tag back on January 15, Slew has, with seven wins in thirteen starts for his new barn. He’s also elevated his game on the stakes level: he was 0-for-3 in stakes since winning a stakes race at 2, but this year, he’s won five of them, including a pair of Grade III’s. His recent form finds his numbers cycling upwards, back towards the high-100s to low-110s range he experienced earlier in the season, and the closer he sticks to the lead, the better he has performed. If there’s a knock here, it’s in the distance. Though his record at a flat mile is pretty decent (3-for-7 lifetime) his better results in ’05 were more geared towards a mile-and-a-sixteenth to a mile-and-an-eighth. The distance might be a bit short for him, but as he gears up to race at 5, perhaps this would be a useful prep to stretch out with. Nevertheless, expect to see him sitting on the edge of the stalking pack here, but a little more ground would be most beneficial to him as time goes by.
Echoes [E Dubai-Intolerant Deputy, by Deputy Minister] operates out of the barn of trainer gallorette, and he became a millionaire this year thanks to a pair of important Grade I stakes, the Sydney Mile and the GSR Mile. Those were jewels in the crown, but since winning them, times got hard in a hurry. He was off the board in three consecutive graded starts (though the races were still good ones, culminating in a late-closing fourth in the Grade III Otter Dash), was defeated by both post position and shortness of distance in the restricted Smackdown race, and was injured in a dirt stakes in early August. He returned to action without any prep for the BB Mile and still managed to be a somewhat credible eighth, beaten six-and-a-half lengths. His best fig since running in the 110s when winning back-to-back Grade I’s was a 101 in the Queen Sam, and so he’s on the comeback trail here. It’s clearly not an easy spot for him, but with this being just his second start since August’s injury, he’s certainly a lot fresher than everyone else here. He has ability and back class, and loves the middle distances of a mile and a mile-and-a-sixteenth, and he’s a deep threat, which if the pace is contested could work to his advantage if he gets in gear at the right time. He’s a hard luck tale, but one with a decent shot at a happy ending here; an upset candidate if he takes advantage of his freshness.
Last Groom T [Gone West x Blushing Groom(FR)] is trained by eastecho99, and he’s a late-developing threat on grass at these middle classic distances. Already a pretty sharp customer on dirt (his lowest speed figure on that surface is just a paltry 89), he exploded upon the surface switch, and became a regular fixture this season in middle-distance stakes races. He’s 4-for-12 on grass, and a three-time stakes winner, including two graded races this summer. In those graded stakes, he preferred to stick close to the front and wait, and it paid off handsomely with a pair of strong wins. He hasn’t won since capturing the Grade III Philly Cheese Steak Turf in June, but his races haven’t been too shabby; he’s picked up a check in three of five starts, and his figs remained respectable and competitive here (his last in particular, being a 108). He would be better served by rating more off the pace here, given the amount of strong late speed, but certainly he’s a competitor at middle distances.
Gingobell [Pine Bluff-Full Sails, by Silver Ghost] will be keeping tabs on the pace for trainer notturna1, as he likes to keep close to the front. The sophomore has used that tactic to good advantage in three stakes wins, all against opponents from his own generation. He captured the Grade II Coalmine Mile two back from a stalking position, no more than three-and-a-half lengths from the lead. And he’s run well versus older in graded company, running a respectable fifth in the Canada mile and a third last out in the Fujimoto Stakes. He’s fit for this, his numbers are strong and his running style should have an impact of sorts on how the race unfolds, as he’s a stalker who can pressure or rate as needed. A little more restraint might be in order here, with the sharpness of the expected pace-setters, but he’s surely developing into a future grass leader for 2006.
Peintre Indyman(IRE) [Peintre Celebre(IRE)-Jumbo A.P., by A.P. Indy], representing milnerton, has only three allowance wins in eight 2005 starts, and was ninth in this race last year behind Buddies Forever. His career highlight is very evident: the Grade I win in last year’s Mospe Cup, which remains not just his only graded stakes win, but his only stakes win overall. Talented a horse as he was in winning the Mospe Cup, he was 16-1 there, and at stakes level, has only come intermittently close to recapturing that kind of form in his other efforts. The fig in the Mospe Cup was an eye-popping 121, but since then his best fig was a 105 he received in winning his 2005 debut. He picked up a check in Utah’s BB Mile last out, finishing a mild fifth, but he’s going to need to run partially back to that 121, and reverse recent trends, to be a player in this. He’ll be a closer here, but he’s another one whose prospects might improve with a little extra real estate.
Giant’s Banjo [Dixieland Band-Giant’s Ack, by Giant’s Causeway(IRE)], for the barn of itsalock, is no lock here, but he is one of the promising stars in the division for the ’06 campaign. He’s a four-time stakes winner (three of those coming this year) whose best efforts come when he’s near the back of the field, within reason. He used that tactic to nose out a win in the Grade I St. James Tavern back in June, as well as the Grade III Dracula last April. Both of those wins came against straight-up three-year-olds; he has only one start to date against older horses, when he never fired in the Grade I Maudlin Cup three back, and some extra seasoning would have been nice. He’s got talent enough to come to life at 4, but here he’s going to need a boost of sorts to run back to his graded wins against sophomores and boost some flagging speed figures (best number since the last win was a 101 the next time out at Newmarket). Curious note: he’s one of the few horses around who has only started on grass, having never set foot on dirt for a race.
Redsadky [Red Ransom x Sadler’s Wells] wears the silks of sherwood, and is by far the most lightly raced horse in the field, with but seven lifetime starts for this sophomore. With five wins and two seconds, he is also remarkably consistent. Since going 4-for-4 to start his career, he’s had a case of seconditis upon stepping up to graded stakes races. He was a dark-horse second in the Grade I Big Red Stakes while sticking like leftover pumpkin pie-residue to the pace, and got too caught up in a stalking trip last out in the Grade II Early Months Stakes, gaining the lead by the stretch only to lose it late in the mile-and-a-quarter test. He finally put it all together in winning the Grade III Panhandle Stakes last out, and merited a 111 fig for that dominating, almost-four-length win. He’ll stick close to the front once again, joining what figures to be a sizable stalking posse here, but as formidable as he looks with that best last-out fig, he appears to be in a quandary regarding his best distance: ten furlongs is too long, and despite getting his maiden win at a mile, eight furlongs would appear to be a bit short for him. He’s got a lot of talent and consistency to him, and has finished ahead of both Giant’s Banjo and Manifest Destiny in previous starts, which bodes very, very well for the future, but he’ll need to make a sharp move from that stalking position to prove he’s perfectly satisfied with going a flat mile here against some of the best milers in the Sim.
My selections:
- Mainfest Destiny
- Redsadky
- Echoes
- Mizzen Dizzie
- Jolie’s Song
Good luck, and happy racing!