[SAF] Saturday – Africa’s Richest Race

Saturday 26 November sees the running of the R2.5m GR1 Gommagomma Summer Cup, Africa’s richest horserace. It’s run as a merit rated handicap over 2000 metres on the turf at Turffontein racecourse, South Africa. Here’s a rundown of the horses lining up.

1. Alastor (7y/o gelding Al Mufti x Mecca Road) – 58 kg, draw 12, (56) 10-9-10, R1 874 840, MR106. Sixth in this race last year carrying 57, winner of the Met in January, winless in his last six starts. Only beaten 1.80 lengths in the July. Consistently scoring in the 97-101 range, but will that be enough while giving weight all around? 16/1

2. Reveille Boy (6 y/o gelding Western Winter x Dancing Champ) – scratched

3. National Spirit (4 y/o gelding National Emblem x Model Man) – 56 kg, draw 1, (14) 5-3-4, R833 875, MR 103. Ultraconsistent. Winner of the Gauteng Guineas in March but winless in his last five starts. Only beaten 0.80 in the Champions Cup in July. Weakend over 1800 metres in the SA Classic and hung late in the 1800 metre Champions Cup. Will he see out this testing 2000 metres? 6/1

4. Ilha Da Vitoria (5 y/o mare Candy Stripes x Equalize) – 56 kg, draw 17, (21) 7-8-3, R1 156 490, MR 102. Four times a GR1 runner up, can this tiny mare beat the boys while giving weight to most of them and coming from the second widest draw? Third is this race last year while carrying 57.5 kg’s. Beaten 2.00 lengths in the July. Won three of last five starts. 6/1

5. Western Prospect (5 y/o gelding Western Winter x Proclaim) – 56 kg, draw 7, (17) 8-4-0, R522 965, MR 102. Won the Elevation Stakes last time out. Stays well. Well beaten in the July. Does he have the class to win this? 10/1

6. Chamonix (6 y/o gelding Western Winter x Beldale Lustre) – scratched

7. Silverpoint (4 y/o gelding Woodman x Precocious) – 55 kg, draw 16, (17) 4-5-1, R1 189 975, MR 101. Won the Derby at this track in April, but that was his only win in his last 12 starts. Only narrowly beaten in the July. Can he score at this level from this wide draw? 7/1

8. The Decagon (6 y/o gelding Krusenstern x Foveros) – 53.5 kg, draw 15, (41) 8-7-6, R593 680, MR 100. Game old campaigner with good recent places. Won two of his last seven starts. Surely not the class to win this from this draw? 50/1

9. Cup Of Grace (7 y/o gelding Royal Chalice x Centaine) – 54 kg, draw 14, (40) 8-11-6, R610 960, MR 98. Another game older horse with decent places recently, but only one win from his last 12 starts, a wide draw, and surely not the class to win? 66/1

10. Grey Arrow (5 y/o horse Western Winter x Kenmare) – 52.5 kg, draw 18, (22) 6-5-4, R607 320, MR 98. Ultraconsistent before last four shocking runs. Likely to go up to lead from the wide draw, setting the pace for his three stablemates. Won the Skeaping over this course and distance in June when allowed to set a big lead. Unlikely to be allowed to get away this time. 66/1

11. Sabina Park (5 y/o mare Sportsworld x Model Man) – 54 kg, draw 13, (21) 5-4-2, R967 790, MR 98. Began career with a bang but winless in last 12 starts. Some good recent efforts in fillies but this is a big task from a wide draw. 50/1

12. Royal Aproval (4 y/o filly Al Mufti x Fort Wood) – 53.5 kg, draw 9, (15) 4-2-4, R852 200, MR 98. Good filly, consistently only 2 lengths off the winners in recent starts. Won Oaks over 2450 metres at this track in April, though against much weaker. Hard to fault, but with 4 wins from 15 races, if she good enough? 5/1

13. James Jaguar (5 y/o gelding Jallad x Zilzal) – 53.5 kg, draw 10, (20) 5-1-3, R795 605, MR 97. Much hyped and let the side down too often. Last won in July 2004, 12 runs back and yet to prove he stays 2000 metres. Recent third over 1400 metres against much weaker is the best he’s shown in a while. 16/1

14. Bilboa (5 y/o gelding Cordoba x Capture Him) – 53 kg, draw 7, (22) 5-4-3, R425 323, MR 96. Winless in last 7 starts but only 1.85 lengths back in the Gold Challenge in June. Does he truly stay 2000 metres, and is he of the caliber to win here? 25/1

15. Eurovision (6 y/o gelding Sportsworld x Foveros) – 52.5 kg, draw 5, (32) 8-3-4, R450 278, MR 95. In top form recently with 4 wins from his last 6 races, from 1800 metres to 2850 metres, and a close second over 3200 metres in the Gold Cup. The Gold Cup was his only start against top class company, and if there is a question mark it must be about his class over this trip. 7/1

16. Dollarmation (4 y/o gelding Cape Cross x Stark South) – 52 kg, draw 11, (10) 3-4-1, R213 875, MR 95. Yet to win a feature race, but ran a great comeback race last time out when a close second to Western Prospect after four months off the track. Being 2 kg’s better off, he should have the measure of his older rival but was he pushed too hard there, only three weeks ago, to qualify for this race? 14/1

17. Jam Alley (4 y/o colt Peintre Celebre x Lyphard) – 52 kg, draw 4, (9) 4-2-0, R781 450, MR 95. Won the SA Classic over 1800 metres in April. Raced in much lower class plate races recently, scoring a decent win last time out. Yet to prove he stays 2000 metres, but may well be better than his merit rating suggests. 5/1

18. Blue Rake (5 y/o gelding Rakeen x Blue Perfume) – 52 kg, draw 3, (12) 6-1-1, R243 205, MR 94. Comfortably beaten in his three attempts outside standard merit rated handicaps and hard to see him winning here. Has won both his starts over this course and distance though and won two runs back to indicate his well being. 50/1

19. Bluesky County (5 y/o gelding Qui Danzig x Northfields) – 51 kg, draw 8, (29) 6-6-6, R333 500, MR 91. Consistent handicapper, not beaten far and running on in both recent low level features. Should see out the 2000 metres. Eight kg’s better off with Jam Alley for a 3.50 length beating last time out. Potential upset, though this is a big step up. 33/1

20. Equal Image (4 y/o gelding Equalize x Candy Stripes) – 51 kg, draw 2, (15) 4-3-2, R280 950, MR 90. Come good recently with three wins from last 7 starts, including the Victory Moon Handicap two runs back over 1800 metres. Stays well, lightly weighted, in form, but steps up in class. Not the stable elect, judging from jockey bookings. 10/1

Stablemates:

– The Zaki stable has National Spirit and Dollarmation. The jockey booking and betting suggest National Spirit is the better of the two, but I have my doubts. Both must be considered contenders for victory.

– Mike De Kock has four runners left, after the scratching of Chamonix. They are Ilha Da Vitoria, Grey Arrow, Sabina Park, and Equal Image. Ilha Da Vitoria is clearly the stable elect, despite her wide draw.

– The Ferraris yard runs Silverpoint and The Decagon. Considering the odds, and the apprentice up on The Decagon, Silverpoint is clearly favoured.

– Geoff Woodruff has Royal Aproval and Eurovision. With Khan aboard Royal Aproval, she looks the choice, but the booking of Hatt suggests both runners are contenders.

– St John Gray sends off Jam Alley and Bluesky County. There’s no doubt here that Jam Alley, the current favourite, is the stable choice.

Quality and Pace:

With most of South Africa’s best horse now in training abroad preparing for the Dubai season, this isn’t the strongest lineup for the Summer Cup and it is a handicap. It’s no surprise to see the betting wide open with a 5/1 favourite, and eight runners at 10/1 or less. It would also be no surprise to see an upset result. I got my July forecast all wrong when the race ended being run at a slow false pace, and the same could happen again. However, at this far more testing track with the longer home straight, I doubt the jockeys are going to be sitting around for too long this time.

My fancies:

5/1 for a four time winning filly, Royal Aproval, sounds a bit short but it’s hard to make a case against her. Some think that she may not stay despite her Oaks win, but she’s surely in with a big chance.

Ilha Da Vitoria (6/1) ran a great prep last time out despite being a beaten odds-on favourite. She only got going late in what clearly looked like a warm up. She was beaten only 2 lengths in that false run July, also coming from a very wide draw on a much tighter track. She carries less weight than last year when third to Dubai-bound Tyson. I’m looking for a big run though I have a soft spot for this diminutive mare, and may be a bit biased.

Dollarmation (14/1) could put up a big showing despite not being the stable choice, if he’s not over the top.

Bluesky County (33/1) would be a surprise for most, but his consistency and the long odds are enough for me to include him in the mix.

Summary:

With most of the top boys away, I’m going to go for the girls to take the big one.

1st Ilha Da Vitoria, 2^nd Royal Aproval, 3^rd Dollarmation, 4^th Bluesky County