FOURTEEN FILLIES SEEK FIRST GI WIN IN G.S.R. OAKS

Denmark–This could be the oddest Graded race that I’ve covered this year.  Here we have a full field entered to contest the ten furlong, $500,000, Grade I, G.S.R. Oaks and there is only one graded winner in the field.  Goldsmith’s No More Options(Gb) won the G2 The Girls Of Summer Stake in New York in week 2608.  Not that these fillies don’t have talent and potential, but where is everyone else?  One of the last big races of the year for three year old fillies only and all the top fillies have shunned the race.  In another bit of oddity, top trainer Sabbath enters five fillies from his various stables.  I’m sure that many trainers enter multiple runners in the same race but these Tete ponies really stick out.  I’d imagine that they stick out for their imaginative names and stable handles.  To think that all their names begin with Tete and they all hail from a multiple Sabbath stable.  If not for that I’d never know that they were related.  But seriously, the favorite is Imamudder’s Krazy Momma(Ire) at 3-1.  If you were keeping tabs last week, Official Hong Kong Track Handicapper, Pete ‘The Hatchet’ Wang tipped a $1,100 trifecta.  Perhaps he can get lucky two weeks in a row as he looks at each filly and assesses their chances.

PP1, Flstables Cyrrius Pride(Ire)(11-1, Luffe).  “Last tall tale before the holidays.  Here’s hoping everyone has a safe and prosperous holiday.  This first filly is sent out by a top trainer.  She is very well bred, going Rock of Gibraltar to Storm Cat to Mr. P.  She brings plenty early speed to this affair as well as a spotty race record.  She’s had plenty of career success, including winning a stake, but as the length of the races has increased her speed ratings have inversely decreased.  For example, in her last three races she’s raced 9 furlongs twice and 9.5 furlongs.  Her best speed ratings when racing those distances was a 93.  When racing 8.5 furlongs she has a 100 speed rating.  From a handicapping angle, it wouldn’t bother me if she was stopping while putting up 100’s.  In this game that may mean that she wants more distance.  What concerns me is that huge drop off in speed gives me a hint that she will only be an early pace influence as she competes in a race farther then any she has ever raced.   If this race was 8.5 furlongs, I’d tout her, but it’s ten furlongs so I can’t.”

PP2, Wonderland’s Lord Have Mercy(13-1, Holt).  “This filly was claimed in week 2461 and then ripped off six wins in a row.  Her tag ran out and she tried a stake race in her last and she was a well beaten fourth.  Distance of that stake race was 10.5 furlongs and her speed rating for that race was an 80.  Granted that race was her first off a layoff, but the other time she tried beyond nine furlongs she only had an 84 speed rating when competing over a good turf course.  Another who’s best speed ratings come at the 8.5 to 9 furlong distance.  At 8.5 to 9 furlongs this closer can put up a 97 speed rating.  Might surprise, but from a wagering aspect I’m going elsewhere.”

PP3, Lasthope1’s Penitent(14-1, Schardein).  “Daughter of Repent has a second in a Grade III race.  She also has two wins at the distance.  Stalker must increase overall speed rating to have a shot.  Best Speed rating when winning ten is a 91.  Best overall speed rating is a 95.  I’ll use her underneath in my exotics because I know she can get the distance and she does have that in the money graded finish.”

PP4, Lenny15’s Alychant(8-1, Gowan).  “Early speed horse had a terrific outing in her last race.  This daughter of War Chant led gate to wire in a ten furlong allowance putting up a 101 in doing so.  The 101 was a new top speed rating, but I note that the last time she ran ten furlongs she also posted a career high.  In that race she rated and then closed to the victory.  Must use her top and bottom in the exotics.  Has yet to demonstrate her class, but has been limited in her stake races.  May not win this race, but with a bit more graded experience she could become a factor, especially next year with additional maturity.”

PP5, Corza6’s Flogging Molly(37-1, Dahl).  “Shouldn’t mind distance as she has Cat Thief, A.P. Indy and Nureyev in her blood, but her best speed rating is an 86.  The 86 came in an 8.5 and a mile race.  She has yet to race beyond 8.5 furlongs and I’d imagine that in this race she will set a new speed rating high.  I can only guess at how high her new top will be, but I don’t think it will be above a 96 and I think 100 will win this race.  Minor share at best.  In Twenty-two starts she has won ten times yet has only won $60,000.”

PP6, Stormborn’s Demonslayer(19-1, Coffey).  “Daughter of War Chant does her best running when the turf is ‘off’.  Two of her career three wins came when track was less than firm.  She won a stake race when turf was good.  Her best career speed rating came over a good track in her last start.  Unfortunately the track is firm.”

PP7, Fusion’s V’s Girl(13-1, Wilcox).  “Another who has been ineffective when racing beyond 8.5 furlongs and another who prefers ‘off’ tracks.  Had a 97 and a stake win when racing a mile over a good turf course.  Best speed rating going past a mile is a 92.”

PP8, Sabbath3’s Tete High Moon(Ire)(10-1, Sheridan).  “The first of many Tete’s.  I previewed this daughter of Moon Ballard in the G3 Freiermuth where she was hard charging third, over a good turf course, with a 95 speed rating.  That speed rating was a career high.  In her last race she tried the dirt and was seventh in a G2.  Catches firm turf today and should logically improve.  I believe that she will set a new personal best speed rating.  Whether the new lifetime best is fast enough to win is the big question.  I’ll use her top and bottom in my exotics.  She has won half of her twelve career starts including a couple of stakes.”

PP9, Sabbath3’s Tete Sodom(Ire)(12-1, Hoge).  “Another Tete.  This filly is a daughter of Daylami out of a Saddler’s Wells mare.  I think she’s really improving, but she looks to be a miler.  She might have been placed in this race to be a rabbit.  Flashed early speed in last and won.  I look for her to take some of the starch out of some of the other early speed, especially No More Options.  Best lifetime speed rating is a 93 which won’t get it done versus this field.”

PP10, Sabbath4’s Tete Marea(Ire)(15-1, Fuchs).  “Our third Tete is a daughter of Sligo Bay out of an Irish River mare.  Has had some success when racing at eleven furlongs, winning three times at that distance.  Has yet to win trying any other distance and this closer’s best speed rating is a 94.  She might be a ten furlong filly so if you have a few extra bucks you may want to include her underneath in your wagers.”

PP11, Goldsmith’s No More Options(Gb)(11-1, Haley).  “Former claimer is a Grade 2 winner who has been knocking heads versus La Pata Daisy all season long.  She doesn’t face anything of that caliber in this race and is a tremendous overlay at 11-1.  She enjoys the distance and is capable of a 95 plus speed rating in this race.  Her biggest difficulty for her to overcome is the plethora of other early speed types.  She has shown a prior ability to rate but she is not consistent in doing so as of late.  She doesn’t seem to fire now as she did earlier.  Perhaps her best strategy is to go to the front and hold on.  I’ll use this daughter of Diesis top and bottom in my wagers.”

PP12, Slewsback3’s Greek Ransom(8-1, Red Ransom).  “Daughter of Red Ransom is making only her tenth start.  Never has raced the distance but she should be competitive in this race for several reasons.  First she’s had some successful graded performances, with a third in a G2 and secondly her best speed rating is a 100.  Pedigree suggests that she will enjoy the added ground so use her under in your exotics.”

PP13, Imamudder’s Krazy Momma(Ire)(3-1, Edens).  “The favorite is a daughter of Desert King out of an Irish River mare.  She has raced 14 times in her career, won three and finished second eight times.  Never gone the distance so that is a concern, but if she can handle the distance she does have a career high 108 speed rating.  She’s routed three times in her career and never been worse then second.  She has a second in a Grade III.  With all the other early speed in this race, I’m going to use her under because she is not proven racing past ten furlongs.”

PP14, Sabbath’s Tete Montsegur(Ire)(6-1, Givan).  “Last two races has seen this filly improve her speed ratings dramatically.  I think a lot of that has to do with maturity as this filly is a Montjeu out of Halo which to me is all about stamina.  Raced in the G3 Diana Classic two starts ago and was a solid second with a 98 speed rating.  In her last race she was in a nine furlong stake and was a closing second with a 100 speed rating.  Pace of the race will help this filly.  She also has the ability and class necessary to win.  I’m using her top and bottom in my exotics.”

Until next time, may the racing Gods favor you.