Though the calendars read mid-November, the grass action in New York suggests it’s beginning to look a lot like August. If you glance at the past performances of the assembled field for this weekend’s $250,000 Grade II Flying Carpet Handicap, you’ll find two refugees from last month’s successful Breeders Bowl, as well as entries who’ve made starts this year in races as challenging and diverse as the Jockey Guild Gold Cup, the Windy City Turf Classic, the Eddie Haskell Stakes, the G.S.R. Derby, the Canada Turf, the Coalminer Cup, and the Man Of War Stakes. Pretty hardcore. It proves that racing is a year-round thing, and doesn’t just come to the end of the line with the Breeders Bowl.
In fact, this late-season turf handicap could help settle a division race, in a way…just maybe not the division you would think of in this mile-and-three-eighths open handicap. The top-ranked older filly in the marathon division on grass is here, Krishna(IRE), as well as the runner-up in last month’s Jockey Guild Gold Cup, Especially, and both have something to prove. Krishna(IRE) could still be a player in the balloting for the top turf filly honors, while Especially, in his second start for a new trainer, looks to run back to his only very good grass start last year. Joining them for a particularly challenging late-year grass stakes are Brilliant, a sophomore colt who may have just rediscovered a love for the lawn; Swingshift Sal, looking for redemption after bombing out in the BB Turf last out; and Plastic Golem, a six-year-old marathon specialist who might have finally returned to his niche against graded stakes competition. In fact, none of the nine entries in the field stands out, for good or bad, and no member of the field is more than 8-1, which makes for an exciting finish to what has been a strong year for grass racing.
The field:
Extortionist [Red Ransom x Sword Dance(IRE)] races for the hard-rockin’ barn of ratt49, and he’s ready to go round and round here. A lightly raced colt, he’s had all of five starts this season, and won two of them, notably the Grade II Horseshoe Falls Stakes at Ottawa two back. He’ll close with a flourish late, like in that effort, where he was closing from approximately Winnipeg—fourteen lengths down—to get up by a half-length. Is the race long enough? He was more impressive in that stakes in Maryland four back, going a mile-and-five-eighths and winning as the rider pleased. But here, it’s a furlong short of a mile-and-a-half, and he’s 0-for-1 at the distance. His numbers are solid, though nothing like the win in last year’s Classic Turf (a 115). And in the Bluegrass Cup Turf last out, a Grade II, he was sixth after the pace scenario changed into one where his typical late charge was rendered moot. On the plus side, though, he was freshened two months from that effort, and returns here. He’s hard to knock for an exotics option, but is going to need every inch of ground, and be a bit closer, in order to make up for the turn-back in distance.
Heidelberg Heights [Dance Bid-La Run, by Machiavellian] won’t close from the suburbs, but he should be in the game at his best late, coming from behind. His dam was Grade III-placed on grass in 2001, and has already produced a stakes-winning half-sister Dumb Donut(GB) this year, but the sparkling stakes pedigree hasn’t completely caught on with this three-year-old: the wish trainee is a four-time stakes winner this year, but has been missing whenever he’s elevated himself to the graded ranks. He’s earned checks each of his last three graded races, like his third in the Grade III Panhandle Derby last out (traffic issues on a dead inside trip), a fourth in the Grade III Haw Haw Derby (more traffic issues, in tight quarters down the lane), and another third, in the Grade III Saint Ledge (no traffic troubles, closed well late, appeared to be game for added ground). His best results are at these marathon distances, coming from off the pace, and his last earned him a very good fig, hinting that he’s learning how to rate and kick out in the stretch. He tries older horses here for the second time, and should fit nicely at class and distance, though one suspects his best races may still lie ahead at 4.
Brilliant [Fantastic Light-Unbridled State, by Sadler’s Wells] has shown signs of his eponymous nature, but hasn’t quite put together a complete sign of brilliance to date. On the Derby trail, he has a second in the Grade II Wooden Indian over the dirt surface here, and he led the GSR Derby in Texas two back before fading late to third. He came out of that effort in fine fashion, with a strong yet tiring turn in the Carlton Fisk last out in California. That race showed a lot, as he pressed the pace in that turf marathon before giving way in the stretch, and it was a strong return to his early career form, when he focused a lot more on racing on the grass and did so with good success (graded-placed at 2, a stakes-winner at 3). The focus for his career now is on the grass, which is likely how it should be given his pedigree—he’s out of a six-time winner on grass, and his sire is a strong turf sire. The assumption here is that he’ll influence the pace, as has been his stock-in-trade in recent time. Rating, though, has given him stakes success in the past, which might be a serious consideration for the future. His grass figs are still in the formative stages, and so aren’t as competitive as some of the more experienced in the field, but his dam did most of her best running at 4, so next year could be a strong one for this attractive colt. Trainer vsmdinc has him on the right path.
Plastic Golem [Beaudelaire x Fabled Monarch] is most intriguing, an experienced six-year-old marathoner for the barn of gonzo3 who apparently idolizes baseball Hall of Famer Carlton Fisk. In the Carlton Fisk ‘Cap last out, he rallied hard late to get up for second. Last year, in the Fisk, he made a milder move for second. Go Sox, right? Well, he’s been lightly raced this year, with just five starts, including three marathon stakes wins. He’s a Grade II winner from 2003, and he’s got a streak of twelve straight starts in which he earned a paycheck, dating back to August 2004. Alas, the last graded-quality figs that he’s fired came back in 2003. He’s certainly capable of tossing in a race recalling his 2003 glory days, but he’s been much stronger lately running over twelve furlongs, although his positioning shouldn’t keep him all that far from the front. He’s a warrior, but in the twilight of his golden years he’ll need a boost to make him run for the shadows.
Krishna(IRE) [Theatrical(IRE) x Kris S.], for paceman2, is the lone filly in the field, and is quite the knockout. She’s the tops among all fillies on grass in marathons, and comes off a sharp near-miss (inasmuch as a near-miss can be really sharp) in the Breeders Bowl Filly & Mare Turf last out. There, she kept grinding away, rallying from thirteen lengths down to finish beaten only three-and-a-half lengths behind a pair of talented mares in Turning Japanese and Grand Caffreys(IRE). Two back, she almost stunned a talented field of colts in the Coalminer Cup, rallying to be beaten only a length by the quality colt Minesweeper. She’s capable of beating the boys—she won last year’s GSR Derby in Queensland—and her numbers are the rare kind, the quality ones that look good whether on turf or dirt. She’ll be coming ‘round the mountain when she comes, more or less, as a deep threat, but she’d be better served by being kept closer to the front. Recent form and recent figs put her squarely in the mix, so only a fool would toss her out without regard. She’s strong enough to take it to the fellas here.
Winter Magic [Red Ransom-Zoolander, by A.P. Indy] represents magicflute, and he’s a three-year-old on a mission here. Since switching to the grass in February, he’s never failed to pick up a paycheck in each of his nine turf starts. He’s a Grade III winner in New Hampshire, and gave way when finishing third last time in the Panhandle Derby. That race gave him a career-best fig, and should set him up nicely here, provided he can handle the distance: this is his first grass start beyond a mile-and-an-eighth. He figures to press the early pace without getting to close to the flame, but as far as staying the distance, the pedigree suggests he can, but the PP lines should make one leery. He’ll need to do better at rating, but it looks like he’s the only one with a degree of early foot in the field. He’s a mystery in terms of where one should expect him to be, but without the appearance of a pace to cook, it’s likely he could be dictating some slow-speed chases, working to his advantage. A still-improving colt with more to do before recommending.
Swingshift Sal [Night Shift x Roberto] had a miserable Breeders Bowl weekend in Gotham. He’s a click trainee who lacked any kind of response when backing up to ninth in the BB Turf, and looks to rebound into the form that got him to second two back in the Grade I Canada Turf. He’s had a good campaign, with wins in the Grade I Prince of Whales and the Grade II Kinsho Kho Classic earlier in the year, and while recent figs have backtracked as the season wound on, he’s a four-year-old who’s still quite capable of running strong even this late in the year. He likes to close without making plane reservations to the finish line, and with a lack of blazing speed in this marathon, such a tactic might be good enough to reverse his recent trend. In other words, toss out the BB effort, and expect a much better operation from this attempt at the Gotham turf course.
At The Chateau(GB) [Beat Hollow(GB) x Be My Guest] has been consistent in his efforts: in the big graded events, he’s always been a day late and a dollar short for saver. It’s been a strong résumé…of almosts: second in the Grade I Royally Modest Cup; seventh in the Grade I Windy City Turf Classic; fifth in the Grade I Man Of War Stakes; sixth in the Grade I Coalminer Cup; fifth in the Grade I Explosive Bet Stakes; ninth in the Grade II Pan Americana Handicap; eleventh in the Grade III Vermont Is 4 Lovers; second in the Grade II Marcos Footwear Handicap…and all of that was just in one year! He is a two-time listed stakes winner who likes to come from off the pace, and the pace here won’t be too demanding; he might even benefit from sticking closer to the front end than normal. One of these days, like Jacksonport, like Federal Funds, after a lot of “sloppy seconds”…and thirds…and fifths…he will break through to a major win. His figs are fair enough to give him a shot, but whether or not he capitalizes depends on where he sets in the field on the backstretch.
Especially [Sadler’s Wells-Sharon La, by Torrential] draws an outside post for illbred, and makes a second start for this stable. He’s something of a surprise entrant in here, as he’s only had two other turf starts: his debut, and last October, in a restricted stakes in South Carolina. But that South Carolina race, where he wound up third, came up a strong 101 figure, which gives him some promise for liking the surface this year. In 2005 he set his sights on the handicap division, where he’s ranked in the top 20. And he almost pulled off a stunning upset in the Jockey Guild Gold Cup last out, finishing a furious second behind Obispo Town (who came back quick to be fourth in the BB Classic). He dominated in winning the Grade II Long Live Del/Penn back on Memorial Day weekend, and usually prefers to be a bit off the lead. Whether his one strong grass fig is going to hold up is a matter of conjecture, but he’s bred to run on grass, and to run this far—the added ground is certainly appealing to him and his chances. But his dirt numbers definitely keep him in the game. He’s the “X” factor among these evenly matched grass horses.
My selections:
- Krishna(IRE)
- Brilliant
- Especially
- Heidelberg Heights
- Extortionist
Good luck, happy racing, and Happy Thanksgiving to one and all (whether it’s Thanksgiving where you are or not)!