LA PATA DAISY LOOKS TO REBOUND FROM BB LOSS

Victoria-Thirteen three year old fillies will go to the post in the $500,000 DUR Victorian Oaks.  This race is the final leg of the DUR Triple Tiara and the eventual winner will have to successfully navigate twelve furlongs, over a firm turf course, against some stiff competition.  The favorite is Usoz’s La Pata Daisy at 7/2; however the favorite may not be such a sure thing.  As always Official Hong Kong Track Handicapper, Pete ‘The Hatchet’ Wang will attempt to sort out who has the best chance to hit the board.  Last week he gave out a nice flat 7-2 winner so disregard at your peril.

PP1, Lodog20’s Star Indy(10-1, Boyd).  “This could be a very interesting race.  There might be some interesting plot twists that are not necessarily apparent at first glance.  Take our first entrant.  This daughter of Star Trace is an early speed type that is still 2x eligible.  Best speed rating in last eight races is a 93 that came two starts ago in the Grade One St.  John’s, a race the favorite won.  In that race she led into the stretch before she faded to fifth.  Of her recent races she hasn’t been able to finish a race, generally stopping in the stretch.  Her last win came in week 2468.  Sometimes in this game stretching out further has a positive effect.  Perhaps this filly is one that can move up as she stretches out.  A good investment if you think that such improvement will occur, especially where she might be the only proven early speed horse in the race.”

PP2, Usoz’s  La Pata Daisy(7-2, Evans).  “Daughter of Sadler’s Wells is an obvious filly of the year candidate. She has won eight of sixteen and has earned over $2.1 million dollars.  She has only been out of the money once in her career.  She has five Grade 1’s and a Grade 2 win this year.  Her last start was two weeks ago in the BB Turf Distaff and finished seventh.  No disgrace in losing that race as that field was tremendous.  That race was also her debut against older horses.  In this race she returns to her division and races at her best distance.  She has never lost at this distance.  Best speed rating at the distance is a 99. Biggest worry is the short rest.  If she pointed for this race after the BB then all is well and good and she will probably win this race, but if it is a groggy to sharp cycle then she could be vulnerable.  I’ll use her top and bottom, but I’ll probably include another on top, because of the possibility of the groggy to sharp cycle underperformance.”

PP3 Bikeboy’s Runnin’ Succubus(18-1, Nightingale).  “Daughter of Atticus has two nice runs at the distance.  In the first effort she closed and won with a 92 speed rating.  The second time she tried the distance she led early and finished second with an 84 speed rating.  Has yet to win a stake, but she’s constantly improving.  Will be competitive in this race and if you have extra money, use her under.  When this filly switches back to a twelve furlong dirt race, I believe a huge betting coup waits.  I’ll put her on my horses to watch for list.”

PP4, Lenny11’s Lady Sadler(8-1, Valley).  “This filly has been floating around in the allowance world in her last five tries with some decent accomplishments.  Long ago, in week 2510 she tried this distance and was a dull fourth with an 81 speed rating.  Closer has recently raced in a couple of eleven furlong affairs and had a bit more success, winning one with a 91 speed rating.  Maturing filly should run better then her last foray at twelve furlongs.  How much better is the question?  If you think she can put up a 100 speed rating, then put her in your exotics.”

PP5, Simsters6’s Undercover Angel(20-1, Edwards).  “This filly has no recent turf form to consider.  She’s matured greatly since the last time she raced on the sod.  Daughter of E Dubai has had some success on the turf with slowish times.  Sometimes with maturity a horse will improve a great deal when she returns to the surface.  Can’t recommend using in this particular race.”

PP6, Airbiscuit’s Rock River Quest(12-1, Fagan).  “This is my Tsing Tao longshot selection.  Rock River Quest is a perfect three for three at the distance, including a stake score that saw her put up a competitive 96 speed rating.  Odds are juicy because of her last race, a stake that she won with an 85 speed rating.  Sure, this is her graded debut, but if she can handle that then she is a very square price.  Use this daughter of Rainbow Quest top and bottom in the exotics.”

PP7, ksparrow11’s Bonersaur(6-1, Kohlmorgen).  “Sixth ranked in the Division, this daughter of Sadler’s Wells is eight of twenty-five lifetime and has earned over $670,000.  She was second to the favorite in Sydney and was fourth to her in the Dahlia Cup.  Won her last race, a fourteen furlong stake, with a 92 speed rating.  Best speed rating in last eight races is a 96.  Cut back in distance should give her a deep base for a very sharp effort.  I’ll use her under, but a win wouldn’t be a shocker.”

PP8, Fourhooves Aragon Bull(5-1, Maskell).  “I believe that this fourteenth ranked filly runs best when the track is off.  In her career she is four of fourteen and has earned over $327,000.  She’s raced three times when the track is off and earned $238,000.   Best speed ratings came over tracks labeled good (pair of 97’s).  Stalker was sixth in twelve furlong G1 Sim Sports Irish Oaks held back in 2552.  She’s a better filly today, so disregard that race.  If the track was ‘off’ I’d be all over this morning line second selection.  However the track is firm so use her under.”

PP9, Springapp’s Zaspirit(Nz)(14-1, Raymond).  “Makes her third start of a lay-off.  Daughter of Zabeel ran well early in the three year old season but hasn’t been the same filly in recent races.  Perhaps she can regain her old form in this race.  She was 4^th in the first leg of this Triple Tiara that was held in week 2454.  Is Grade I placed.”

PP10, Pygmalion’s Publik Enemy(9-1, McMillan).  This is a rapidly improving filly that is making her eleventh start.  Daughter of Rainbow Quest is a stake winner and has posted a 95 at the distance.  This race marks her graded debut and she could be a filly that needs to be such a race before she has success in such a race.  I’ll use her under this time, but probably use her on top the next time she races in a graded.”

PP11, Earlyspeed’s Gone Off Sake(8-1, Hartel).  “Sixteenth ranked in the division, this daughter of Sakhee is four of twelve in her career and has earned over $249,000.  Last race was her first start since week 2559 so expect a sharp effort today.  Was the winner of the second leg of the Triple Tiara with a 98 speed rating.  I’m going to use this closer top and bottom in my exotics because if she’s sharp she has the talent to upset this field and trigger a nice payout, especially if La Pata Daisy is in a groggy to sharp form.”

PP12, Elesto’s Cat Rena(32-1, Johnson).  “Beautifully bred 1x in deep.  This filly is making only her seventh start and her second route race.  Don’t know what to expect, but I love her breeding lines.  She goes Danzig to Storm Cat to Forty Niner.  One expensive broodmare.  Best speed rating on the turf is an 82.”

PP13, Princeton’s Princeton Bound(12-1, Benoit).  “This filly has a stake win at twelve furlongs and has only been out of the money once when racing on the turf.  Her best speed ratings have come at ten furlongs, so I think the race is a bit too long for her. Race is graded debut.  Not without a shot, but too many questions need to be answered before I can recommend using.”

Until next time, may the racing Gods favor you.