The SAF Connection

R2 000 000 Durban July 2200 metres (Saturday 2 July 4:20pm)

1. Eventuail (ARG)                                                                                                               25/1

    6 y/o bay gelding (Candy Stripes x Equalize)

    Draw 16, Mass 58 kg, Merit 110, Earnings R1 904 010, (20) 7-3-2

    Jockey B Fayd’Herbe (83 wins, 17%), Trainer G V Woodruff (134 wins, 20%)

Won the Summer Cup in December 2002 as the 5/2 favourite before an unsuccessful trip to Dubai and England where he recorded one second from five starts. Was out of action for more than 18 months after sustaining a ligament injury in England. He has run twice since then, going down less than half a length last time out over 1600 metres at level weights. He has a tough task having to give weight all round, and will likely be too far back from his wide draw. Classy, but hard to see him winning two and a half years since his last victory.

2. Alastor                                                                                                                              40/1

    6 y/o bay gelding (Al Mufti x Mecca Road)

    Draw 15, Mass 56 kg, Merit 106, Earnings R1 729 840, (53) 10-8-10

    Jockey G Puller (33 wins, 9%), Trainer S G Tarry (61 wins, 14%)

Won the Met in January over 2000 metres at 50/1 and not beaten far over 1400 and 1600 in his last two starts. Clearly capable but has a tough task with a big weight and wide draw. Will need to get over to race a few lengths off the leader which may blunt his finishing effort. Looks an unlikely winner but has surprised before.

3. Winter Solstice                                                                                                               10/1

    4 y/o bay gelding (Western Winter x Melun)

    Draw 1, Mass 56 kg, Merit 106, Earnings R1 373 120, (15) 8-5-1

    Jockey G Hatt (135 wins, 17%), Trainer J Ramsden (79 wins, 11%)

Ultra-consistent with only two finishes outside the top two from 15 starts. Won the Gold Challenge over 1600 last time out, and the Drill Hall over 1400 before that. He is perfectly drawn at 1 as he is a quick starter, capable of leading or racing just off the pace. The question mark must be the distance, having been beaten into 2^nd and 3^rd at his two attempts over 2000 metres. Serious contender, if he sees it out.

4. Tyson                                                                                                                                 16/1

    4 y/o bay gelding (Silvino x Sledgehammer)

    Draw 8, Mass 54.5 kg, Merit 103, Earnings R1 766 310, (16) 7-1-2

    Jockey C Little (31 wins, 8%), Trainer S T Pettigrew (23 wins, 9%)

When Tyson won the Summer Cup by more than 4 lengths in November last year at 18/10, many saw him as the new champion. Unfortunately, he then traveled down to the Cape for the Queens Plate and the Met and hasn’t been the same horse, failing to impress in six starts. Two runs back he went down by half a length to Grey Arrow, closing fast, but followed that up with a dismal effort at this track over 2400 metres. If he could reproduce that Summer Cup run, this wouldn’t be a contest but it’s quite possible that this tight track doesn’t suit him. Many will be hoping he comes good, but it looks unlikely.

5. Grey Arrow                                                                                                                      25/1

    4 y/o grey gelding (Western Winter x Kenmare)

    Draw 17, Mass 54 kg, Merit 102, Earnings R607 320, (19) 6-5-4

    Jockey R Hill (73 wins, 21%), Trainer M F De Kock (95 wins, 19%)

Other than his poor last run, Grey Arrow has been very consistent and has no stamina doubts. Considering his preference to race near the pace and his very wide draw, he seems likely to try to go around them early and may be used to ensure a good gallop for his three stable companions. If that initial effort doesn’t take too much out of him, he could keep rolling by staying on when the others have had enough. It’s a tough ask, but he is upset material.

6. Ilha Da Vitoria (BRZ)                                                                                                     20/1

    4 y/o grey filly (Candy Stripes x Equalize)

    Draw 19, Mass 53.5 kg, Merit 101, Earnings R991 490, (18) 6-8-2

    Jockey B Smith (81 wins, 19%), Trainer M F De Kock (95 wins, 19%)

Once known as a bridesmaid, this filly has returned to racing recently after a four month break bigger and stronger and with an eye for the winners box. Her two wins from two starts since the break have both been over 1400 metres but she has won well over 2000 metres in the past and should have no problems with the extra distance. The problem for her is the bad draw. In all likelihood, she is going to be well back turning for home, but look for a flying finish.

7. Western Prospect                                                                                                           20/1

    4 y/o bay gelding (Western Winter x Proclaim)

    Draw 6, Mass 53.5, Merit 101, Earnings R397 970, (14) 7-4-0

    Jockey K Shea (75 wins, 16%), Trainer N L Bruss (35 wins, 11%)

His win in the Natal Derby over 2400 metres in July last year was the start of a four race winning streak which he attempts to extend here. Well drawn, well weighted and distance suited, he must be in with a serious chance. The only doubt would be whether he has the class to win in this company. The way the race is likely to set up, expect him to be in the firing line when it matters.

8. Dunsinane                                                                                                                        11/2

    3 y/o bay gelding (Fort Wood x Full Colour)

    Draw 12, Mass 53, Merit 104, Earnings R439 205, (8) 6-1-0

    Jockey M Khan (154 wins, 23%), Trainer G V Woodruff (134 wins, 20%)

This beautiful son of Fort Wood continues to grow, strengthen and improve and I was amazed at the early odds available about his chances. Others agreed, seeing his odds come crashing down and he is now a firm second choice in the betting. In his penultimate start he won the Natal Guineas as the 22/10 favourite beating Rabiya, the current July favourite. Last time out he went 1800 for the first time and beat the ultra consistent mare Jamaica who races in the Gr1 Garden Province later in the day. He looks to have tons of class, likes to race a few lengths off the pace, and has a good finishing kick. From draw 12 it’s possible that he may end up racing a little wide which brings the possible stamina doubt into question. He is out of a sprinting mare, so will he see out the trip? With Khan taking the ride, he looks the stable choice and I’m expecting a good effort.

9. Rabiya                                                                                                                                2/1

    3 y/o grey colt (Jallad x Royal Academy)

    Draw 3, Mass 53, Merit 104, Earnings R1 270 500, (10) 5-2-1

    Jockey R Fradd (? – riding abroad), Trainer D Kannemeyer (57 wins, 14%)

Rabiya came from well back to cruise past his opposition in the Daily News last time out, a Gr1 for 3 year olds over the July distance of 2200 metres. Everything points to a big run here, and it’s no surprise to see him starting favourite. For such a classy sort, his inconsistency at finding the winners box looks strange but he has easily won all three attempt at 1800 metres or further. He could quite possibly be simply too good at this sort of distance. The only question mark is that he has yet to prove himself against older horses.

10. Gang Related                                                                                                                  25/1

    5 y/o grey gelding (Jallad x Quick Turnover)

    Draw 13, Mass 52.5, Merit 99, Earnings R738 850, (14) 7-2-1

    Jockey M Odendaal (191 wins, 13%), Trainer M F De Kock (95 wins, 19%)

This lightly raced gelding has been plagued with leg problems and hasn’t raced since the Summer Cup in November. To ensure his selection into the final field, his fitness was confirmed in specially arranged gallops. He has always run well after breaks so fitness should not be a problem. In the Summer Cup he finished a clear second to Tyson, though well beaten. He has won over 2400 metres so with fitness, stamina and class covered, he looks a lively outsider. From his 13 draw, he may end up racing too far back though and will probably be running on for minor money.

11. Irridescence                                                                                                                   8/1

    3 y/o bay filly (Caesour x Dancing Champ)

    Draw 11, Mass 52, Merit 102, Earnings R959 250, (10) 6-2-0

    Jockey W Marwing (69 wins, 23%), Trainer M F De Kock (95 wins, 19%)

Irridescence is clearly the top 3 year old filly in the country and enters the race off a trio of wins. Last time out she won the Woolavington comfortably, beating Joshua’s Princess. The big question is whether she can beat the colts. On the same day as her Woolavington victory of 2200 metres, Rabiya won the Daily News in a time a full 7 lengths quicker than hers. However, on a line through their two victories over Jamaica, Dunsinane only has a small edge over her and Dunsinane has beaten Rabiya. With Marwing taking the ride on her in preference to the stablemates, all of whom have chances, she must be considered a serious contender.

12. Dunford                                                                                                                           25/1

    4 y/o bay gelding (Shalford x Piaffer)

    Draw 4, Mass 52, Merit 98, Earnings R351 740, (24) 6-4-3

    Jockey A Marcus (103 wins, 22%), Trainer M W Bass (73 wins, 12%)

Purely on class, Dunford looks an unlikely winner of the July. He has been soundly beaten too many times by horses of this caliber to be considered a serious challenger. However, he stays well, carries a low weight, is well drawn, and has a good finishing kick so he could surprise. Stranger things have happened.

13. The Decagon                                                                                                                  80/1

    5 y/o gelding (Krusenstern x Foveros)

    Draw 5, Mass 52, Merit 98, Earnings R488 680, (37) 7-7-5

    Jockey *R Simons (51 wins, 8%), Trainer O A Ferraris (71 wins, 23%)

Many have questioned his inclusion in the field, and it’s not surprising to see the Decagon as the rank outsider at 80/1. He was only beaten 2 lengths by Dunsinane last time out and is 2.5 kg’s better off. Before that he was beaten less than 3 lengths by Grey Arrow and Tyson and is 2 kg’s or more better off with them. On those efforts, I believe he deserves his chance here. He is well drawn, lightly weighted, and stayed on well in his last two runs over 2000 metres. A win looks unlikely, but he must have chance, however small.

14. Silverpoint (AUS)                                                                                                          20/1

    3 y/o chestnut gelding (Woodman x Precocious)

    Draw 10, Mass 51, Merit 97, Earnings R785 350, (14) 4-4-2

    Jockey A Delpech (4 wins, 25% + riding abroad), Trainer O A Ferraris (71 wins, 23%)

This Australian import has only won twice in his last 10 starts and was soundly beaten by Rabiya last time out at this track, though he does look better than that effort. He stays well and has a top rider aboard but would be a surprise winner.

15. Night Watch                                                                                                                   14/1

    4 y/o bay colt (Badger Land x Foveros)

    Draw 7, Mass 51, Merit 96, Earnings R339 490, (15) 5-4-1

    Jockey G Van Zyl (? – riding abroad), Trainer M G Azzie (22 wins, 14%)

Only 2 months ago, Night Watch was a sprinter, having won once at a mile as a young 3 year old, but being restricted to races up to 1400 metres since fading very badly in the 1600 metres Dingaans in November 2003. In May, that all changed when he took on a stakes field over 1800 metres and won easily be 2.75 lengths, going away. That still hadn’t proven he was in this sort of class though, but he became a serious July contender when going down a neck in 3^rd place at level weights in the GR1 Gold Challenge over 1600 metres where he faced a number of today’s runners. As the lowest weighted 4 year old in the field, he comes in at much better terms and must be in with a huge chance. To confirm his staying potential, consider that his full brother, Highland Night, is one of only four horses to record two Gold Cup wins, our premier race over 3200 metres. Earlier on the July card is the Grade 2 Gold Vase over 3000 metres. Six of the 13 runners are sired by Badger Land. At 14/1, Night Watch is going to be my value selection to win the July.

16. Arabian Glow                                                                                                                  66/1

    3 y/o bay gelding (Al Mufti x Golden Thatch)

    Draw 18, Mass 51, Merit 95, Earnings R321 850, (14) 4-5-1

    Jockey F Naude (86 wins, 10%), Trainer A G Laird (68 wins, 17%)

Arabian Glow is a front runner, and has a very tough task from a very wide draw. Although only beaten a little over 2 lengths, he was no match for Rabiya last time out. He stays well enough though and don’t be surprised to see this longshot keep rolling to hold on to some minor money. Much will depend on how much is taken out of him to get to the front from draw 18, and how much pressure is put on him to keep his position, but he cannot be considered a contender to win.

17. Pavlovich (SNL)                                                                                                              50/1

    3 y/o bay gelding (Soviet Star x Darshaan)

    Draw 14, Mass 51.5, Merit 95, Earnings R371 250, (10) 3-3-1

    Jockey F Coetzee (? – riding abroad), Trainer G V Woodruff (134 wins, 20%)

Pavlovich looks much the same in ability as Silverpoint. He’s a good 3 year old that stays well but just not quite in the same league as Rabiya and Dunsinane. He has to race from a wide draw and may end up being too far back to make an impression, though he does have multiple South African and Hong Kong Champion Coetzee aboard, now famous for his exploits with Silent Witness. Unlikely winner.

18. Zebra Crossing                                                                                                             16/1

    3 y/o chestnut gelding (Jallad x Northfields)

    Draw 2, Mass 51, Merit 95, Earnings R295 880, (8) 3-1-2

    Jockey J Lloyd (44 – 24% + riding abroad), Trainer N L Bruss (35 wins, 11%)

Similar comments apply to Zebra Crossing and for Silverpoint and Pavlovich. He looks held by Dunsinane and Rabiya and is likely running for minor money only. All three of them have only been beaten a few lengths by the two favourites, but they just don’t have the class to turn the tables. Zebra Crossing is well drawn and should be racing just off the pace, leaving him ideally positioned to challenge if he has the ability.

19. Reveille Boy                                                                                                                   10/1

    5 y/o bay gelding (Western Winter x Dancing Champ)

    Draw 9, Mass 51, Merit 94, Earnings R381 750, (14) 6-1-3

    Jockey P Strydom (164 wins, 22%), Trainer B Crawford (38 wins, 17%)

Before his last run, Reveille Boy probably wouldn’t have qualified for the July field. His win in the GR2 Astrapak 1900 gave him a deserved shot though, and confirmed his suitability to the track. He has a brilliant rider aboard, a decent draw and light mass, and stays well as seen by his narrow defeat in the Natal Derby as a three year old. I’m not convinced that the form of the Astrapak I good enough to win the July though and think that his odds as 10/1 fourth choice are a bit low.

20. Joshua’s Princess                                                                                                        66/1

    3 y/o bay filly (Joshua Dancer x Pedlar)

    Draw 20, Mass 50, Merit 98, Earnings R522 700, (14) 4-4-1

    Jockey G Schlechter (67, 8%), Trainer M W Bass (73 wins, 12%)

Joshua’s Princess ran on well to finish only 1.25 lengths off Irridescence in the Woolavington over this trip last time out and has a 2 kg pull in the weights. Irridescence probably had something in hand, and Joshua’s Princess has the worst of the draw to overcome leaving her likely to be racing wide or too far back. She is a tiny filly but as courageous as they come and jockey Schlechter, the regular rider of Rabiya but bumped off to make way for Fradd, won’t go down without a fight either. In all, she’s another unlikely winner but not without a minor money chance at long odds.

Summary

If Rabiya confirms his promise, he could be too good here. If Dunsinane stays, they could turn it into a match race. If Tyson comes back to his best, they could all be running for second. If Winter Solstice stays, he will be tough to shake off. Does Western Prospect have the class? The De Kock racing machine has four runners (Grey Arrow, Ilha Da Vitoria, Gang Related, Irridescence), all contenders in their own right. Personally, I’m going to stick my neck out and go for Night Watch at 14/1. This looks a very open race and will produce an exciting finish, as always.

Other July Day Features

South African Airways 2200 (Listed Stakes) R100 000

This is a consolation race for runners not quite good enough to qualify for the July. There’s a similar mix of older proven horses, and younger challengers. Amongst the sires, there’s a familiar set of names with Badger Land, Western Winter, and Jallad having two runners each from the 14 in the field.

SABC Sport gold Vase 3000m (Gr2) R150 000

Saddlewood has won his last three races and looks the one to beat in the staying ranks. Badger Land has 6 of the 13 runners here, with Fort wood and Restructure weighing in with two apiece.

Schweppes Golden Horseshoe 1400m (Gr1) R500 000

A very competitive field of 17 two year old colts and geldings face off here. Goldkeeper has three runners, including the likely favourite, Tiza. Boom first season sire, Captain Al, has two representatives.

Durban Africa Golden Slipper 1400m (Gr2) R250 000

18 juvenile fillies, including two reserves, are carded for this event. As with the colts race, it looks extremely competitive. Jet Master dominates this event with five fillies, while Rambo Dancer, Captain Al, and Kahal each have two.

Garden Province Stakes 1600m (Gr1) R350 000

This race is for fillies and mares at weight for age and features the brilliant USA-bred mare, Overarching (Arch x Known Fact) who has recorded 10 wins from 19 starts. She’s up against the ultra consistent and game Jamaica (Sportsworld x Averof) who has led at the 400 metre mark in 9 of her last 10 races. With 18 runners in the field, only Jallad and Sportsworld are represented by 2 runners each.

Darley Arabian Open 1900m (Listed) R100 000

14 three year old colts and geldings line up here, some of whom may have been July hopefuls at some stage. The likely favourite in the NZ-bred Dollarmation (Cape Cross x Stark South). None of the competitors have a sire in common.