Looking For Gold: 20 To Contest the Colonel Prospector Emerald Stakes
Trainers of top milers find themselves in an awkward position as the racing calendar moved through the fall, often forced to try and stretch their charges out for a run at the Breeders’ Bowl Classic or sharpen them up and refine their speed for a tilt at the Breeders’ Bowl Sprint. Not this year: one week after the Breeders’ Bowl, those trainers with a little bit of foresight and the patience to avoid the white-hot spotlight from last week’s extravaganza in
The story of the race might be told by the odds: led by 6/1 favorite Tete Galactic(IRE), there are only four horses in single digits, and only three at higher than 30/1. The oddsmaker apparently had a tough time separating these horses, but let’s take a look at the field and see what can be seen:
Colonel Prospector Emerald Stakes
Grade I
One mile
Fast Dirt
$500,000
All horses, 3 years old and up
PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds Comments
1 17474 UNPRECEDENTED jockeymax J Van Dam 11/1
This onetime star returned to action earlier this year after a length layoff, and he looks better than ever. After an impressive late run secured him an allowance in only his 2nd start back, the G1 winner was moved to the barn of trainer jockeymax, who has fed him a steady diet of G1 races with remarkable success: after a 3rd in the G1 Delaware Handicap, he powered home a front running winner of the Bob Woodward Memorial, defeating eventual Breeders’ Bowl Classic winner Call Of The Wild, but a dismal 7th in the Jockey Guild Gold Cup derailed a potential Breeders’ Bowl bid, and we instead find him here in Ostend over the mile trip, which, regardless of whether he guns for the lead or comes from off the pace, should be very much to this one’s liking, especially considering the Nureyev x Raise A Native in the bottom of his pedigree. From the inside post, look for him to be running out for the lead early, and just trying to hold off the closers. He does need a dramatic turnaround in order to shrug off his last race, so he’s far from a sure-thing to run back to his best form.
2 28656 MCCRIRICK(IRE) 7thheaven B B Thornton 82/1
Three year old colt is competitive in allowance races, but seems ambitiously placed here.
3 48536 HIGH RAISER wiz4 F Trossard 8/1
This son of Aptitude is right at home racing over a flat mile, but he hasn’t yet shown that he’ll appreciate this type of company. He’ll have company at the front end, and three times in his last four, he’s been reeled in late by allowance horses: I’m suspect of his ability to hold off a classy closer in a G1 race, and with such a large field, there will be plenty of horses willing to take a shot at catching this one. Not likely to break through here.
4 28040 OICHE NOLLAG(IRE) jafeica Ga Thom 16/1
Shows generally strong speed figures which have generally improved over the course of the year, but its hard to get around the 3: 0-0-1 record on the dirt. He’s also a front runner, so he’ll have a rough go of it if High Raised, Unprecedented and other speedballs keep him company, especially when you consider that he’s not going to like the surface. Unlikely to be a factor here.
5 47318 TETE GALACTIC(IRE) kartago T Maes 6/1
Today’s favorite, he was a G2 winner three starts back over a sloppy track in the Prims Memorial, and though he lost his last race, he’s won 6 of his last 8, and half of his 12 dirt attempts. Further, he’s only been off the board once on the dirt. Worrisome is that, as seems to be the story of this race, he looks as if he’ll be sitting up near the pace: something has to crack, but this is probably one of the two classiest speed horses in this race, so its not unreasonable to think that he’ll be the one to last.
6 38290 SECRETS UNTOUCHED seacadet T Littleton 9/1
Another classic type horse turning back in trip for today’s contest, he’s a stalker, which could bode well for him here, and he’s classy: he’s won his last two and shows a G2 win on his resume this year, so he’s looking today to get that all-important G1 win. Beautiful pedigree, and from this gate he’ll likely be able to get a good stalking trip outside of the main speed to his inside.
7 75412 CAGADOR notturna2 J Barnes 28/1
Three year old colt would need a very, very big effort to be competitive here, but he’s shown in the past that he’s capable of such an effort: witness the 105 speed figure he ran three starts back. Since then, however, he’s been tailing off, and he is in a tough spot to turn things around today.
8 95006 FIGHT FOR FREEDOM hills B Ality 25/1
There is almost no need to comment on this one, since he shows almost an identical pattern to Cagador, who starts just to his left. This one’s huge effort was a 106 two starts back, and with only 11 starts to his credit, he may have more upside potential, but facing older horses for the first time while stepping way up in class is unlikely to be a strategy that meets with much success. To make matters even worse, he’s a speed horse, and there’s no way he’ll clear the stakes-caliber horses inside of him and establish a comfortable lead.
9 86887 GALROY ISLAND(IRE) grinspoon E Dobropolski 19/1
The second representative of sire Galileo(IRE) in this race, I can’t quite understand how this one slipped in at 19/1. As an extraordinarily talented closer who obviously loves the dirt (108 speed figure in his only try over the surface), he’s in the money if he repeats that effort. Only thing to worry about is a bounce, as that 108 speed figure represented a 30 point jump from the 78 he ran two races ago. I still like him in this spot at long odds.
10 88047 TETE FOR STORM sabbath J Holmes 15/1
Sabbath has a talented filly here who really came to hand when put on the dirt after her first six starts, and she likes the mile trip. G3 winner in her first start of the year, and 3rd in a G2 race last time out, her speed figures leave her a little short in this one, but it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility for her to find just a little bit more and work her way into the top five. I’m not sure I can see her threatening for the top spot though.
11 89813 HERBERT oostende4 Ga Butler 12/1
This is another one who the oddsmaker seems to have missed: I don’t really understand 12/1 for a horse riding a three-race win streak, with an average victory margin of 3 lengths. Sure, he’s primarily a sprinter, but he won two starts back over 7.5 furlongs, and with his style, he shouldn’t be unduly troubled by an extra sixteenth of a mile. Further, I’ve never seen a horse with Caro in their pedigree struggle to get a distance, and I’d bet the farm that this won’t be the first. He may not win, but someone would have to try very, very hard to beat him. There’s some money to be made at 12/1 as well: bet him across the board with some confidence, as he’s only been out of the money once in his career, finishing first or 2nd in 9 of 10 career starts.
12 86356 CARBALLO fernando T Greene 14/1
A very talented colt, but he’s got a ways to go to match up to some of the greats that trainer Fernando has had. He’s won his last two, but his speed figures put him solidly in the middle of this group, and he’d need the effort of his life to beat these, and nobody’s going to hand it to him. The odds are just about on with this one: he has a realistic but realistically small chance at the win, but he could walking away with at least a minor award.
13 43468 PERFECT MOTION(IRE) lizbizkit T Iommi 18/1
I’m willing to forgive this guy the two putrid efforts over 13 and 10 furlongs and regard this one as a miler that is consistently capable of running a 105+ speed figure on any given day, which makes his 18/1 odds look pretty appetizing. As a deep, deep closer, he’s likely to bring up the rear of the field for the first half mile, but when he gets moving, as long as 10% jock T Iommi can get him in the clear with space to run, its just a question of how much ground he can make up how quickly. He won’t have it easy, since the speed horses aren’t going to give him anything for free, but he rates a huge chance.
14 91524 TETE CATHEDRAL(IRE) sabbath Se Morris 33/1
Sabbath has been very, very careful with this three year old, and it paid off with four wins in his last five races, the only exception being a 3rd in a 16 furlong stake that was probably too long for him. This son of Sinndar looks like he’ll perform fine over a one mile trip, but his speed figures suggest that he might just need another year to mature before he can compete with horses of this class. All the same, he’s better than 33/1 odds suggest.
15 6805 COL PROSPECTOR II(IRE) rkeogh A Smith 99/1 It looks like this one is in here because his name coincides with the name of the race, not because he’ll be finishing in the same zip code as G1 stakes horses. He’d be served well with a quick return to easy allowance company or high claimers.
16 48891 TETE GRAND END(IRE) wisbyzews J McCarthey 11/1
The fourth and final member of the “Tete Tag Team,” this mare is a relentless closer who owns a G3 triumph and a G2 second over the course of her last three starts, which were against her own gender, but stepping into open company, she’s in the same boat as many of these: she’ll need the race of her life to win it, but she comes into this one in fine form and its not impossible for her to step up and win it.
17 4110 EXPLORER click A Glover 9/1
Sprinter stretching out can run the speed figures to win it, and he’s got a solid 14% jock on top, and it’s a good thing: if he’s not careful, with 20 horses in the field and starting this far outside, he may get hung wide and lose ground.
18 89254 ACT OF BRAVE pm A Horowitz 15/1
What a difference a year makes: this time last year, trainer pm was experiencing the bittersweet thrill of having this colt finish 2nd in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile, seemingly falling just a head short of being named the champion 2 year old. This year, its been up and down: dismal efforts in the G1 Florida Derby, Middle Jewel, and New Yorker prompted the turnback to 7 and 8 furlongs in distance, and he quickly flashed some of his old form, running 2nd and 3rd in a pair of G1 races. Following those two efforts, he was run on turf, apparently in an effort to utilize the turf to dirt angle that many horseplayers love to use (the tactic was also used for this colt in the leadup to the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile last year, so its likely not a coincidence that he preps for big races with turf runs), but it fell just a little short: he ran huge, but he ran huge the race after that G1 sprint, which brings him into this one, coming off of a solid 105. If he runs back to it, or even better, runs to the 114 he ran in the Pinto earlier this year, he’s in the money. But he’s a three year old, and inconsistent, so bet with care.
19 18078 STUBBY’S LEGACY ricdav293 E Street 21/1
We should all be so lucky to have our claims turn into horses that can reel off four straight and become stakes placed, but he looks like he maxed out in open stakes company: he’ll have a tough time finding the extra little bit he’d need to be competitive here.
20 12044 TEXAS RANGER super2 T Petty 25/1
A G1 race wouldn’t be complete with a representative from the super stables, and this one has certainly done as asked: Deputy Minsiter x Storm Cat x Forty Niner nets you a runner, and this one has done just that while winning 4 of 9 starts. He’s most at home just winging it on the lead, so he’ll be going early, and he needs to repeat the 110 speed figure he ran two back to have a prayer of surviving the cavalry charge of speed horses for the first part of this one, and while he has faced older horses before, it was only while running 4th in a $10k allowance. Not likely to be around to have an impact when it matters.