All Saints Derby – Goin’ For The Golden Ticket
This week, the last in March, will tell us a lot about the Bluegrass Derby contenders of 2013. There are three “Derby Lock” prep races this weekend, one of which is the subject of this article; the All Saints Derby at Louisiana. It’s a wonderful day at the track, with some of the world’s finest Dixieland jazz bands gracing a special stage in front of the grandstand between races, Creole and Cajun food dominating the menus at the various restaurants and snack bars around the fair grounds, Sazerac Cocktails and REAL Mint Juleps (as opposed to those watered-down confections served up there in Kentucky) being consumed by the gallon…
But enough about the traditions of the area; let’s have a look at the race itself… The event covers 8.5 furlongs on the dirt and the purse is a hefty $600k, but most importantly the winner gets a “Golden Ticket” for the Bluegrass Derby!
BLACK HAACK was having one heck of a juvenile season, but that all ended when he came up lame with a 33 speed rating in the Grade 3 Cornstalk in November. The
GHOST OF GOLD started out his career pretty nicely, but his game really blossomed for krfarms when stretched out to 2 turns in his last pair. The Ghostzapper colt dominated a solid field in the Grade 3 Good Cow with his stalking style, earning a strong 105 speed rating in the process. This gets him 7/1 odds here.
PRESPECTOR is a Bernardini colt who brings his best every time and has 3 2nd’s on this track. If he can repeat the 110 speed rating he threw last time out in the Risen Star Stakes, the titleist trainee will be tough to beat here as a 6/1 co-favorite. That said, he was beaten in that race; this game ain’t easy!
CURFEW BUSTER charged from far back to win a small stakes at a mile last out after a fairly decent turf try; was that win a fluke, or has the Afleet Alex colt matured and hit his best stride for good? “He’s not the same colt we knew as a juvenile”, says mtkregion5. At 14/1, he’s a nice price for what might be a “live one”.
SHINE TIME has come to hand nicely since stretching to 2 turns, dominating a NW2L allowance and following that with an easy small-stakes win. The Symboli Kris S colt hasn’t beaten much yet, but gets some respect from the CPU at 11/1. The jethorse trainee should be near the front early, and could very well have a say in the final outcome if he can handle the class rise.
PAPA JOE has proven himself in sprints, but tries 2 turns here in a tough spot. The lukester01-trained Monsun colt certainly has distance ability in his pedigree, but pedigree is one thing and performance is another… The CPU is conflicted, too, dropping mid-level 11/1 odds on him.
SUN EMPIRE is a scratch-bred Empire Maker colt going off at 13/1. He’s been consistent with 4 of 5 runs in the money, but his only graded-stakes try was his one off-the-board finish. The jdrhys1 trainee will need to show a good bit more “stick” to be a factor late in this one.
L’ARPEGE started his career looking like he we never going to lose, including a Grade 3 win and another stakes win, but the Curlin colt finally tasted defeat in the Grade 1 Movieland Futurity followed by a surprising odds-on loss in an allowance. The smokeglack trainee faded fairly badly in his last, the Grade 1 Vermont Is 4 Lovers at 9 furlongs. Is this a colt that needs some rest, or has he maxed out on his distance capability? Or can he bounce back here? That “back class” impresses the CPU enough to place his as a 6/1 co-favorite.
BERNARDORO is a Bernardini colt who tried the turf in his last pair, with moderate success. From the italst3 barn, the 14/1 shot ran fairly well in a couple of 2-turn graded-stakes dirt races before the turf experiment; maybe he’ll come back stronger now in his first dirt try at age 3.
CAVIAR EXPRESS will need to have a much better run than his last in Dubai, his only graded-stakes try. The Bel Asprit colt goes off at 12/1, so the CPU gives him a decent chance to redeem himself for the deyoto barn. Lots of Dr Fager in the pedigree, something not often seen anymore in the Sim.
SUMMER FRONT was 7th to PRESPECTOR in the Grade 2 Nashua Special a few months ago, but only missed by 1/4 length in what may have been the most exciting stakes race of 2012. Since then, the Hard Spun colt has run pretty well in a pair of graded stakes for blankpoint and gets 9/1 odds here.
A COMMANDING DEAL goes off at 10/1 for the dahlia barn. The Commands colt has closed strongly in all six of his starts, the last being a 3rd in the Dubai 200 Guineas at a flat mile. He should appreciate the extra real estate here and gets 10/1 odds for the run.
LOOKING FOR SUMMER was a distant 3rd in the Grade 3 Risen Star Stakes last time out for the thebigo barn. The Unbridled’s Song colt has been reasonably close up in three straight graded stakes, and will be looking to find the extra “oomph” to find the winner’s circle here at 8/1.
QUAIL GROUP has only won twice in 9 starts, but the consistent Flower Alley colt has finished close-up in a lot of graded stakes, including a nice 4th in the Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile. The lana1 trainee closes well, but needs a little more punch to get a big win. He goes off at 11/1.
Looks like there’s quite a bit of early speed here for 3yo routers, so the stretch run could be very exciting with all the closers being set up nicely for big runs…
I’ll go with the deepest of the closers, CURFEW BUSTER to run ’em all down in the stretch.
Good luck to all!