Preview – Grade 2 Land’s End

Preview – Grade 2 Land’s End

Normally, when a trainer runs into the No. 1 horse in a division, he has not found a soft spot.

However, that’s the way it looks in the Grade 2 $500,000 Land’s End on Sunday in Kentucky.

This is a significant prep on the Bluegrass Derby Trail and looks like a golden opportunity for the 14 trainers entered to run.

On Feb. 16 in Vermont, the Grade I Vermont Is 4 Lovers, another Derby prep, saw the top six finishers all run triple-digit speed figures. It’s hard to believe the No. 1 horse in the division never has cracked 100, but it’s true. LEFT SIDE STRONG, a brown son of Street Boss, has earned a shade over $1 million and has risen to the top of his division, but his career-best speed figure is 99. That was earned last year when he ran second in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile. Such is the case with a lot of what can be said about this juvenile champion. It all happened last year. Dundey knows his horse has to step up his game if he’s going to play a part in the 2013 Triple Crown. His two races as a 3yo both have been shocking disappointments. So far this year, Left Side Strong has run in two short allowance fields, and failed to win either race. “Red flags go up when 3yo debut left him short in a five-horse allowance field,” said Trotter in his most recent Bluegrass Derby Watch. “He hasn’t glittered since the Grade 1 Sparkling Wine in October. The talent is there, just wonder if his best racing is behind him.” Simulated punters chased Dundey out of the Washington track last out, after Left Side Strong could manage only a third-place finish of four in a seven-furlong turf allowance. Left Side Strong went off at 1-5, and got beat by two non-descript horses. What has happened to this juvenile champion? Is he programmed to go sour after a big 2yo campaign? If he’s going to turn it around, he better do it on Sunday. Left Side Strong has 262 stakes points, compared to roughly 310 total combined by the rest of the field in The Land’s End. The next-highest ranked horse in the field is only No. 44.

That’s PLATTSBURGH, who has drawn a miserable post, widest of all 14 for the Legions Racing Stables. Representing Pastures of Green, this brown son of Regal Ransom also is looking for his first triple-digit speed figure. Surely residents of the City of Plattsburgh will be rooting for their namesake. Nestled near the Adirondack Mountains of upstate New York, Plattsburgh offers its very own beach and picnic area, recreation trails, boat launches, great fishing spots, quaint restaurants and shops, and a brand new Waterfront Park located downtown. Maybe if Plattsburgh the Simulated thoroughbred can win the Bluegrass Derby, there will be a monument erected in his honor at the new Waterfront Park. If he’s going to do that, he better start picking up his feet. A Grade 3 winner, Plattsburgh has not won a race in six months, and has missed the board in his last three races. The highlight of this colt’s career came with a late-running victory last September in the Grade 3 October Road Juvenile, but he has not done much since then. In five races hence, Plattsburgh has a measly third-place finish to show for it. He’s missed the board in three straight non-graded races, and tries to remedy that by jumping in class to a Grade 2. A recipe for success, it does not sound like. To make matters worse, he’s way out there in post No. 14. Tough spot for a turnaround.

BOLTIE, a brown son of Sidney’s Candy, has a ton of earnings but not a lot of stakes points. He has earned $675,000, but has only 46 stakes points to show for it. That might not seem like a lot, but it’s enough to have him ranked third in this suspect Grade 2. What Boltie may lack in stakes points, he makes up for with speed figures. Unlike the top two qualifiers, Boltie has cracked the triple-digit speed figure barrier. In fact, he’s done it twice, last out and three back. Gobidon will represent the GR Simsters with Boltie in his 10th career start, his first at nine furlongs. In looking for a reason to like the horse on the stretchout, we note that the best race of his life was also at the longest distance he’s run: a mile and a sixteenth. Now, he tries a mile and an eighth. A handicapper might see mixed signals with Boltie. On the one hand, he holds a speed-figure edge over the top two qualifiers. On the other, he’s missed the board in two straight races. Even so, the oddsmaker has installed him as the third choice at 7-1.

What’s a big graded race without the Super Stables? Not to worry. Dr. Dipper Lip and pals are present here with RED HARVEST, an improving chestnut son of Encosta De Lago. While the top three qualifiers all show shaky current form, Red Harvest looks good in his most recent races. Last out, he carded a nice 103 speed figure when winning a non-graded stake in Florida going 9.5 furlongs. As stated many times in this column, it is instructive to all players, and particularly new players, to see how the best trainers in the Sim develop their horses. What can we observe about how the Super Stables are handling this colt that might show us how to get a horse to the Derby Trail? The Doctor and his partners should know. They’ve won the Bluegrass Derby twice! With Red Harvest, we can see that Super is establishing the horse’s ability at the distance before moving up the class ladder. The horse has proven he can win in non-graded company in very nearly the Derby distance. The Derby goes 10 furlongs, and the horse has won at 9.5 furlongs. Now, he cuts back half a furlong to find what seems to be a soft spot in the Grade 2 Lands End. This colt looks like he’s in a lot better shape right now than the top three qualifiers.

The Elite Fleetwood Racing Stables, representing the Northwest Racing Circuit, qualify next with ELITE SENSE, a brown son of Street Sense. The morning-line oddsmaker likes this colt at 6-1, and it’s easy to see why. It’s that big 108 speed figure he earned last out when second in a non-graded stake this distance in British Columbia. This horse handicaps very nicely off that race alone. Trotter, the aforementioned admirable author of the Bluegrass Derby Watch, said this year’s running of the Vermont Is 4 Lovers, contested on Feb. 16, was the fastest that race ever went. The winner, Houseriot’s RAM N RAID, carded a 107 speed figure. Elite Sense ran even faster! And, to show you how high the speed figures for 3yos have gotten in the new Sim, he did not even win! In earning that 108 that makes him the second choice in the race, Elite Sense was beaten half a length by KARUKAZA. In that race, Elite Sense broke fourth down on the rail and was reserved early. He stayed within himself in the early stages, racing inside of TRAIN VAIN. By the halfway point, he moved away from that one and took a clear spot in second behind the eventual winner. Chasing Karukaza as the only clear threat, Elite Sense made up ground, but just when he got close, the winner had more and repulsed him at the wire. Still, Elite Sense was almost five lengths clear of the third-place finisher, always an indication of a strong race. Elite Sense looks really good coming in here off that big number at the distance.

Qualifying only a half stakes point behind Elite Sense is SMARTNESS WANTED, a brown son of Bernardini. This horse is trained by Foam, who has a one-stable operation listed here. At first glance from a handicapping perspective, there are a few things which might make a punter nervous about putting down his money on this colt at 10-1. His last race inspires no confidence. The horse was 10th, beaten 13 1/2 lengths in the aforementioned Vermont race. But, like Trotter said, that race was very tough and so Smartness Wanted might be forgiven his poor run. Also worrisome are the facts that this colt has only two career wins and has not won a race in six months. In all my years of drinking Coors with Roys at the BTB offices, I don’t ever recall covering a horse in successive races. So, that’s pretty cool that this is the second race in a row we’ve previewed this horse. The first time I got a look at him, he did not have that ugly 10th-place blemish on his racing record. Before the Vermont race, Smartness Wanted had been in fine form. The horse never had missed the board in seven career starts before things caved in on him last out. So, this is a brand new thing for the colt. He’s never had to rebound from a bad race before. It may be the case that Smartness Wanted simply is finding things tougher as he stretches out and moves up the class ladder. It was easy to have confidence in the colt coming off that nice race two back in the misnomered If I Don’t Win This I’m Glue, but now? Not so much. Maybe this horse can turn it right back on because this is a lot softer race than the Grade I field he tackled last out.

The Kentucky Horsemen won’t have to go far to cheer their rooting interest in the Land’s End. Trainer kyjelly will represent the home-track residency at Kentucky on Saturday with GENERAL JAMISON, a brown son of General Quarters. This horse has been a model of consistency so far, hitting the board in all eight of his career races. That admirable record seems to be at serious risk on Sunday. The horse never has cracked the triple-digit speed figure barrier, and goes to post as one of the longest shots in the field at 17-1. Can he keep his perfect 100 percent ITM mark? Maybe. The horse has been able to hit the board so far no matter what class of race. He’s been consistent in allowance, non-graded stakes and yes, one graded race. General Jamison was third in December in the Grade 2 Club Stakes going 8.5 furlongs. Then, the horse was second last out in an allowance prep over this Kentucky track. In that race, General Jamison broke on equal terms with GUSHER WELLS, gradually wore that one down and looked like a winner only to be caught by the late run of MY GOLDEN MOE. That colt has raced twice since that race on Feb. 1, while General Jamison shows a nice long rest coming into this Grade 2. This will be his third straight race over the home track, and we have to suspect the Kentucky connections were aiming for this race all along. The horse needs to improve to contend, but he appears to be a likely candidate to do so.

Now, we move outside of the Top 100 in the division with BLACK SEA STAR, a brown son of Sea the Stars. This is a single-stable operation. But, we suspect Pogdig1 is no newbie in the Sim, evidenced by the fact he was able to breed a horse by the very popular Sea the Stars, and that he was able to secure the riding services of the game operator’s jockey, M. Wallace. (Perhaps this is another chance to thank Mike for putting the BTB back on the front page. Sure is nice and there seems to have been a positive response with a lot more writers signed up to work this week.) Like several others in here, Black Sea Star will be looking for his first triple-digit speed figure in here on Sunday. Can he do it in a Grade 2? Maybe. Like the Super colt, Black Sea Star has shown he has the ability at 9.5 furlongs, so the nine furlongs will not be a problem. The real questions about this colt concern his speed figures and class of the race. In his one shot at graded company, the horse missed the board. That was two back, in the Grade 3 Giant Slayer Classic. Pogdig1 ships this Sea the Stars colt to the United States for his chance at the American Triple Crown. 

Breaking down on the rail is a very interesting colt in KING ALONSO, an improving brown son of Street Cry. First of all, this horse is trained by none other than the great Dixie. This is far and away the greatest trainer in the history of the Sim. Imagine going back in time and being able to bet a horse trained by Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons or Frank Whitely. Such is the opportunity for Simulated punters on Sunday here in Kentucky. If you back one of Dixie’s runners, at least you had a good reason. King Alonso would be a responsible pick in here on connections alone. However, as with most of Dixie’s horses, he looks good. The horse is a proven winner, finishing first in five of his career seven races. He’s improving by big chunks in the speed figure department in his last two, moving up to a 94 and then to a 103 last out when third in a Grade 3 going this distance. Shipping in from California, all it’s going to take is one more step forward and this colt is a serious threat to take it all in the Land’s End. If ever in the history of the Sim any trainer ever felt sure he was going to beat a Dixie horse, his confidence was misplaced.

The second longest shot in the field at 19-1 is SINGIN DRAGON TED, a light gray son of the Mr. Prospector sire Zenno Dragon. Once again, it goes to show that if you visit the Sim every day, you can learn something every day. As big a fan of Mr. Prospector that I am, I never had heard of Zenno Dragon until today. But, Hijacked Ted has heard of him. A super cheap sire available for 10 points on a Friday, Zenno Dragon has sired precious few horses in the Sim. Basically, he has gone unused. Having raced in Japan in 1991, 2000 and 2002 on a very limited basis, Zenno Dragon no longer can sire a 2yo in the Sim and is on his way out. He was discovered on a very limited basis in the Sim in 2012, a year in which he had 21 runners and 11 winners. Singin Dragon Ted is the best horse ever in the Sim by his sire, and probably always will be. He’s the only stakes winner, and there’s only one other allowance winner. What a coup it would be for Hijacked Ted to win a signficant Derby prep with a sire that nobody, outside of hard-core handicappers in Japan, ever heard of. It’s amazing that this sire has gone unnoticed, considering his father was the greatest sire in the history of North American thoroughbred racing. Shipping over from Europe, the horse faces some major obstacles. He’s a huge question mark both in terms of class and distance ability. The horse was badly beaten last out in his only graded try. All four of his wins have come sprinting at distances of either seven furlongs or seven and one-half. There are signficant reasons to doubt it can happen, but what a story it would be if this colt won.

The longest shot in the field is MARQUEE SIGN at 23-1. Is he worth a bet at that long price? How better to find out than to ask the trainer himself. This brown son of Tiznow is trained by none other than Desperado Rob. We know just where to find this ultra-sharp trainer on a Friday morning. Let’s get a chat window open and do a BTB interview with one of the Sim’s greatest trainers. “Good morning Roberto, how you doing bud?” “Excellent,” says the sharp stick from Blazing Saddles. “How are ya?” “Not too bad, but enough about me. I am here in BTB business. I need to know about Marquee Sign.” “Oh hey hey,” said Despie. “He is a bit of an outsider, eh? He was injured as a two year old. That is why he was out for 3 months. He seems to relish the distance.” “He’s the longest shot in the field. Worth a bet at 23-1?” “Could be. He’s two-for-two at nine furlongs. Balata’s favorite jockey B. Renfroe is down to ride him.” “No more D. Esperado?” (Rob’s jock was aboard this horse for his two-race winning streak in Indiana.) ((Balata, affectionately known as “The Pro” for his prodigious golfing skills, was present for this interview. He must have gotten a questionable ride or two from B. Renfroe. He does not like the imaginary guy.)) “Dunno, I picked jocks at the start of the new game and haven’t changed anything.” “What made you decide to go for the Grade 2?” “Derby dreams, bro.” “You really think this colt can make the Derby?” “You never know. Gotta try. Twelve-pack and a prayer, you know.” “Do you have other Derby contenders?” “Nah, I ran a horse in the Rebel last week and he did not do enough.” “Wow, so the longest shot in this Grade 2 field is your only hope?” “Yes. Him and Obi Wan Kenobi. I did not start my 2yr old until late in the year so it put me at a handicap.” “Well, good luck my friend. Can only hope the horse has as much class as his trainer.” “Thanks.”

Since when does a Simulated morning-line oddsmaker take connections into consideration when assigning prices? I thought it was mostly based on speed figures. The oddsmaker loves EVIL SUNRISE, installing him as the 5-1 favorite despite qualifying all the way down here in the 12th position. And, the best reason to like this bay son of Pivotal? He’s trained by the great Lenny, mastermind of the Evil Empire. Why else would you make a colt a favorite in a Grade 2 when he’s just cleared his initial allowance condition last out and takes a massive jump in class? If this was a newbie pulling a move like this, an observer might scoff and give the horse no chance. When Lenny does it? Bettors beware. Of course, there is no way in the world a reasonable handicapper is going to put his money down on a huge class jumper like this at a short price. At the same time, no Simulated punter is going to lay his money down against Lenny and have total confidence. Like with the Super Stables’ colt, what Lenny has done is establish this horse at the distance first, and then try to move him up the class ladder. Evil Sunrise shows his two most-recent races both at nine furlongs, with a front-running score last out. With that win, Evil Sunrise scored a nice speed figure of 103 and a chance in this Grade 2. The horse is not ranked in the top 400 of any division, and yet he’s the favorite in a Grade 2 with a full field of 14. Go figure.

This next horse belongs to another chat-room friend of ours, Matt from Australia. Hello mate, and good luck with FUJI FUN, your brown son of the Sunday Silence sire Fuji Kiseki. Having never followed the great racing in Japan, I guess it’s no surprise that this sire is another new one on me. Available for 91 points on a Friday, Fuji Kiseki has Sim crops for the years 2009-13. His best year was 2010, when 94.1 percent of his 17 runners were winners, and 23.5 percent were stakes winners. Used on a limited basis, it appears Fuji Kiseki is doing well in the Sim. He is equally capable of throwing winners on both turf and dirt, and has three graded winners, including a Grade I winner. Can he get a Grade 2 winner on Sunday? Masterm Racing Stables sure hope so. He’s taking another shot at graded competition after successfully streching this colt out to 9.5 furlongs last out for an allowance score. A scratch breeding with Forty Niner in the middle and Nureyev on the back end, it remains to be seen whether Fuji Fun will be better on dirt or turf. It appears that Matt thought he had a turf horse, as his first four races were on the lawn. The horse may indeed love the turf as he was second in a Grade I turf sprint in his third career race. But, after a failed run after that in the Grade I Duetoburst, Matt decided a change in surface was in order. It worked, as Fuji Fun won at first asking over the main course. If he can hit the board on Sunday, the colt will be graded-placed on both surfaces in only his eighth career start. Good luck, Mate!

Finally, we have THINGAMAJIGGER, a chestnut son of Hard Spun who has only three stakes points to his credit. This horse has some major challenges in front of him on Sunday. He’s got the fewest stakes points, fewest dollars earned and is stretching out to a furlong more than he’s ever tried before. Good thing he’s in capable hands. Pointblank is an old-school Simmer who has won more than 1,500 races. Like with others in here, this horse merits a second look on connections alone. Pointblank will represent the powerful GR Simsters here and he knows how to place Sim horses. What makes Pointblank think this horse has a chance in here? He did improve last out when stretched out to a flat mile from two seven-furlong races. The horse had missed the board in three straight before that good run last out. It’s clear that Pointblank has a lot of faith in this colt as he’s trying graded company for the fourth time in only his eighth career start. With that old-school blue-blood back end, it’s easy to understand why this veteran winning Sim trainer thinks he has a class horse in Thingamajigger. We have Mr. Prospector in the middle and Damascus on the back end. Pointblank takes another shot here in the Land’s End and why not? The race did not come up very tough.