Grade-1 Dell Webb Oaks
Usually when I use the word “balanced” to describe a race it means that there is a nice mix of early speed, pace pressers, stalkers, mid pack closers and off pace closers populating the field. In the Grade-1 Dell Oaks, contested at the “classic” distance of 9 furlongs on the firm California Turf Course, the context that I use the word balanced in the Oaks description is that, in my estimation, all 9 of today’s entries have at least a decent chance to win the event. The track handicapper has made trainer Alysheba11’s filly Street Princess a modest 4-1 favorite, with 3 graded stakes victories in her last 4 starts and over $1-Million in earnings, you would usually expect odds of 5-2 or even 2-1. However the Track Handicapper wisely chose discretion when penning the Morning Line as the field is filled with “classy” fillies that have winning ways, trainer Broohar3’s filly Arc A Comin was tabbed as the 9-2 second choice, fresh off a scintillating 3 length victory in the Grade-2 Gerry Cooney Stakes. Third choice at 5-1 is trainer Skunkbred3’s filly Stash Your Gold, she’s won 4 of her last 5 including a smashing 2 ½ length romp to victory in the Grade-1 Frankfurt-Niederrad Stake in her last start. The longest odds in the race at 11-1 belong to trainer Delaware’s filly Surrealistic, who has 6 wins in her 13 starts and earned over $500-K in her brief career, pretty darn good credentials for the longest shot in a race, I’d say.
FIELD SPEED PAR: 101.892
# 1 A THOUSAND UP ( 7/1 ) 3-yr Filly
Owner: wispa2 Jockey: Y. Bower
S48 RATING 47.11 SPEED PAR: 100.947
Style: Early Speed / Pace Presser
Last Race: Trainer Wispa2’s filly A Thousand Up won the $80-K Cache Turf Filly Route Minor Stake four weeks ago. The race was a very good tune up for this event as it was also contested at 9 furlongs on the turf. A Thousand Up pressed Law Of Success (also in today’s Oaks field) breathing down her neck from the starting gate and finally caught Law Of Success at the 6 furlong pole, but could never really put her away prevailing by a mere ½ length, as the two fillies slugged it out all the way through the stretch.
Form: Good (improving) … generous spacing, 4 – 7 weeks between most races and lightly raced, the only “bad” effort she’s had in her 12 career starts was in the Grade-1 French Diana, when she tried 10 ½ furlongs and led to the stretch, but A Thousand Up tired badly the last 2 furlongs and faded to finish 8th of 9.
Class: Speed Par is just a bit below the field average, but she won the Grade-3 Vangard Stakes and placed 2nd in the Grade-3 Longest Walk Stake the race before that so she definitely belongs in Graded company..
COMMENT: Even though there’s no way you can dismiss trainer Wispa2’s filly A Thousand Up, who’s compiled an impressive record of 11 in the money finishes in 12 tries on the turf. I really think this race sets up extra “tough” for her because of the abundance of really quality early speed runners. She’ll have to out duel not only Law Of Success again, but also the favorite Street Princess right out of the gate. Tall order but not impossible for this talented filly.
# 2 ARC A COMIN ( 9/2 ) 3-yr Filly
Owner: broohar3 Jockey: O. Brim
S48 RATING 75.02 SPEED PAR: 100.791
Style: Pace Presser / Stalker
Last Race: After 3 cracks at the Grade-1 Level with only a 3rd place finish in The Cremation Stakes to show for the efforts, trainer Broohar dropped his filly 1 Level in the Grade-2 Gerry Cooney Stake and Arc A Comin responded with a “huge” effort, stalking the early leaders in 4th just 2 lengths off the pace, Arc A Coming methodically ran down the early speed and breezed to a 2 ½ length victory recording a career best 111.584 speed figure.
Form: Excellent (neutral) … After back to back career best speed figure efforts, trainer Broohar is bringing Arc A Comin back off a short 3 weeks rest. Arc A Comin is also adding a furlong as her last 2 races were both at 8 furlongs. While this isn’t necessarily the “kiss” of death, it’s a tough maneuver at this level of competition.
Class: Her Speed Par of 100.791 is just slightly below the field average but certainly not far enough below to make her non competitive against these. She’s won a Grade-2 and finished 3rd in a Grade-1 so she fits the field ok.
COMMENT: Trainer Broohar3 is hoping to strike while his filly is riding top form, will this race send her over the top and produce a “bounce”? That certainly is a possibility, but like I said it’s by no means a guarantee. Her stalking style fits this field very nicely as there’s plenty of speed to draft, look for her to lay 4th or 5th and try to make a move at 6 furlongs.
# 3 STASH YOUR GOLD ( 5/1 ) 3-yr Filly
Owner: skunkbred3 Jockey: G.V. Vincent
S48 RATING 83.57 SPEED PAR: 101.228
Style: Mid Pack Stalker
Last Race: Trainer Skunkbred3’s filly Stash Your Gold’s last race was nothing short of “sensational”, she rallied from a stalking 8th mid pack position in an overflow field of 15 in the Grade-1 Farnkfort Niederrad, which included today’s favorite, Street Princess and Miss Timoshenko, who have combined earnings of over $4-Million to post a comfortable 2 ½ length victory.
Form: Excellent (improving) …Trainer Skunkbred3 has done a really good job of spacing Stash Your Gold’s races and finding races that maximize his filly’s chances to succeed as evidenced by the fact that she’s won 4 of 6 starts as a 3 year old.
Class: Stash Your Gold’s 101.228 Speed Par Rating puts her just a tad below the field Par, but it is more indicative of how evenly matched the field is from the class aspect. Her last race Grade-1 victory over Street Princess should erase any doubts about whether she’s outclassed in today’s race.
COMMENT: Stash Your Gold is coming off a career changing effort. She recorded her highest lifetime speed figure and made a quantum class leap forward. This race sets up perfectly for her stalking style and on the basis of those factors, I would have made her the slight favorite in today’s Oaks. I’ll be very surprised if she doesn’t a t least manage a top-3 finish.
# 4 TOM AND PAP ( 6/1 ) 3-yr Filly
Owner: tetsch Jockey: M. Staples
S48 RATING 92.95 SPEED PAR: 101.490
Style: Mid Pack Closer / Off Pace Closer
Last Race: A good even effort in the Grade-1 Equinic Colonial Downs, saving ground early, Tom And Pap spotted the leaders 8 ½ lengths at the 4 furlong call and then proceeded to steadily grind his way to a respectable 5th place finish, 5 ½ lengths behind at the wire.
Form: Good (neutral) …. Trainer Tetsch’s filly Tom And Pap’s form looks good, she’s run identical 105 speed figures in her last 2 races, the last result was a bit worse due to the increased level of competition.
Class: Tom And Pap’s Speed Par is just about par for the field, she’s got a pair of nice Grade-2 victories under her belt, but needs to raise her speed figures 1 more notch to be at the level of her top competition in this field.
COMMENT: I’m kind of on the fence when evaluating trainer Tetsch’s filly Tom And Pap. I think there’s plenty of speed so the race should set up well for her style. However, she’s a bit inconsistent when it comes to launching her stretch rally, sometimes she fires dynamically and swallows her opponents and other times she’s more a plodding, grinding sort of runner. If she’s dynamic today she could certainly rally to a top 2 finish, but I think a grinding top half of the field finish is the more likely scenario.
# 5 STREET PRINCESS ( 4/1 ) 3-yr Filly
Owner: alysheba11 Jockey: F. Gossett
S48 RATING 100.00 SPEED PAR: 105.733
Style: Early Speed / Pace Presser
Last Race: Trainer Alysheba11’s filly Street Princess controlled the early pace in the 8 furlong Grade-1 Frankfurt Niederrad and opened up a 1 ¾ length lead at the 6 furlong call but couldn’t hold off the stretch drive of Stash Your Gold, a real good effort but possibly a precursor of today’s Oaks.
Form: Very Good (neutral) …Street Princess has won 4 races in 6 starts as a 3 year old, her races are 4 to 5 weeks apart and she’s shown a real high level of consistency with speed figures of 109.305, 109.141 and 108.698 in her last 3 races. I don’t think form will be an issue in this race but stretching out to 9 furlongs is pushing the window of her distance threshold and could very well be the major factor in how well she fares in the Oaks.
Class: Street Princess is definitely the “class” filly in today’s race, with 2 wins and a 2nd place finish in her last 3 races, all Grade-1 efforts and a Speed Par of 105.733, there is no question that she is a Grade-1 Stakes runner.
COMMENT: Trainer Alysheba11 has entered Street Princess aggressively, and has reaped the rewards of her abilities. I always struggle when I don’t fancy the Morning Line favorite in a race, but given the quality all the early speed runners, the distance increase and the competitive level of this field overall, I think this is a very “tough” spot for his filly. While Street Princess certainly will be prominent to the 6 furlong marker, I think the last 2 furlongs will be very challenging and if she holds on for a top-2 finish in the Oaks, she deserves every accolade I will heap on her in the recap.
# 6 SURREALISTIC ( 11/1 ) 3-yr Filly
Owner: delaware Jockey: R. Simcox
S48 RATING 67.48 SPEED PAR: 96.810
Style: Mid Pack Closer / Mid Pack Stalker
Last Race: Surrealistic stalked a field of 8 in 7th position early, but she was only 4 ¾ lengths behind the leader at the 4 furlong call in the $80-K Not A Honky Tonk Turf Filly Minor Stake. She methodically kept driving and gaining on early leader Jalabhar (earnings $108-K) until he finally started to wilt with 1 furlong to go.
Form: Decent (neutral) …Trainer Delaware decided that after 3 straight Grade-1 efforts that netted him a 4th and 5th place minor award share, to drop Surrealistic back to the Minor Stake level to try and return her to her winning ways. The move worked and Surrealistic won the race with a nice effort, but she didn’t really appreciably move forward as her respectable but hardly noteworthy speed figure of 101.572 would indicate.
Class: With a Speed Par of 96.810 she’s definitely hasn’t accomplished as much against Graded Stake company as some of her rivals today. Surrealistic could move forward off that last effort, but it will take about a 10 point improvement to challenge for a top-2 finish in the Oaks.
COMMENT: Surrealistic has earned over $500-K and yet she’s the longest price on the board, while I have a hard time seeing her finish in the top-2 in the Oaks, she has already won 3 Minor Stakes and if she moves forward off that last win, a 3rd to 5th place finish is a real possibility. Certainly can’t dismiss her, even if she is the longest price.
# 7 LAW OF SUCCESS ( 6/1 ) 3-yr Filly
Owner: mtk76hold Jockey: A. Lewis
S48 RATING 63.97 SPEED PAR: 102.102
Style: Pace Presser / Early Speed
Last Race: Gutty effort in the $80-K Cache Turf Filly Route Minor Stake. She was the early leader and even though she was collared by A Thousand Up at the 6 furlong call, trainer Mtk76hold’s filly Law Of Success never threw in the towel and the two fillies battled to the wire with Law Of Success falling a scant ½ length short at the finish line.
Form: Good (neutral) … Even though Law Of Success has posted very consistent speed ratings between 101.772 and 104.811 in her last 4 outings, I think she’s lightly raced and may actually be trending upward and could be sitting on a huge effort. She’s shown a bit of a tendency to fade in the stretch, but she really held on well in the face of extreme pressure last race and I always consider counter cyclical efforts as good signs of things to come
Class: Her Speed Par of 102.102fits the field well and her 2nd place effort in the Grade-1 Irish 1000 Guineas and victory in the Grade-3 Irish 1000 Guineas Trial shows she’s Graded Stakes caliber and fits here well.
COMMENT: This is a tough call and Mtk76hold certainly didn’t cherry pick a low end field for her return to Graded competition. Obviously the looming speed duel with A Thousand Up and Street Princess could comprise any or all of those 3 fillies chances, but I like Law Of Success to at least give a good account of herself and hang tough for at least a minor slice of this purse.
# 8 MERCATO ( 6/1 ) 3-yr Filly
Owner: correction Jockey: M. Billig
S48 RATING 16.52 SPEED PAR: 100.539
Style: Off Pace Closer
Last Race: Trainer Correction’s filly Mercato did everything but win the Grade-1 Equinic Colonial Downs. She was really “flying” through the stretch and was gaining with every stride on winner Quality Buzz but needed another 50 yards and eventually had to settle for 2nd place money.
Form: Excellent (improving) …Confirmed late stretch runners like Mercato usually are able to hold their sharp form then the front half of the field runners. She dramatically improved her speed ratings by 9 and 7 points her last 2 starts so Mercato is obviously “peaking” with regards to form.
Class: Mercato’s Speed Par is slightly below (1+ point) the field average, and this is due to Speed Figure inconsistency because of the early lagging of the off pace closers, who commonly are 10 – 15 lengths behind early, when they don’t fire the resulting speed figure is usually abnormally low and tend to drag down averages. This is also why late closers tend to show more in the money finishes then wins commonly.
COMMENT: If the anticipated “blazing” speed duel between the trio of early runners develops, trainer Correction’s filly should be one of the runners who benefits the most. Mercato is fit and coming out of a “key” race where she was still full of run at the finish line. A repeat of her Colonial Downs effort puts her squarely in the top-2 finish mix.
# 9 KUBANSKAYA ( 10/1 ) 3-yr Filly
Owner: super10 Jockey: T. Bates
S48 RATING 30.82 SPEED PAR: 93.226
Style: Mid Pack Stalker / Mid Pack Closer / Pace Presser
Last Race: Won the $60-K Turning Japanese Turf Special Minor Stake. Trainer Super10’s filly Kubanskaya stalked the 3 early leaders who battled heads and necks apart for the early lead thru 4 furlongs, when the speed duel started to collapse, she made her move at the 6 furlong pole and gradually pulled away to win by 2 widening lengths.
Form: Very Good (improving) …Ever since she pulled up lame while running in a Classified Allowance contest back in March of this year, after a 9 week layoff, Kubanskaya returned with a vengeance and is riding a 4 race win streak including 2 Minor Stake wins in her last 2 races. She’s also well tested at 9 furlongs and beyond winning at 10 & 11 furlongs as well as 9 so form and distance both are registering positive. However she is returning on a short 3 week freshening and that can be detrimental at this level.
Class: Her Speed Par of 93.226 is clearly well below today’s level of competition, throw in the fact that this is her 1st try at Graded Stakes company and she’s got a real class hurdle to overcome. On a positive note, Kubanskaya did register a career best 106.560 speed figure in her last winning effort and if she can raise that bar just 2 or 3 points, she should register a real nice finish despite the lack of Graded class experience.
COMMENT: Trainer Super10 has Kubanskaya on the upswing and even though she’s never faced this level before, she’s got a lot of positives at 10-1, so a slice of this purse is well within her capabilities.
SELECTIONS:
CLASSCAPPER: # 5 STREET PRINCESS
SPEEDCAPPER: # 7 LAW OF SUCCESS
FORMCAPPER: # 3 STASH YOUR GOLD
ANGLECAPPER: # 8 MERCATO
LONGSHOT CHARLIE: # 6 SURREALISTIC