Wait, don’t leave yet!

Wait, racing fans, wait!

There’s still another race to run.

While it’s true that the race everybody wants to see in Maryland on Saturday is the 14th, and not too many are going to be looking forward to the 15th race, don’t tell that to the owners.

We have 11 trainers who will be keenly interested in the race immediately following the Middle Jewel on the Maryland card.

It’s the $250,000 Grade 2 Confederate Stakes, going nine furlongs on the turf for all horses 3yo and up.

By the time the Confederate Stakes is run, the Super Stables will know whether RAS EL HANOUT has won the Middle Jewel to earn a chance to become the Sim’s second Triple Crown winner. Here’s hoping our wild-eyed Turkish taxi cab driver picked a winner on the way over to the track today. As we take a look at the stakes points of the entrants in the Confederate Stakes, it becomes apparent that this race has come up extremely soft. We only have one horse in the Top 150 of the division! It’s the Super Stables’ COLUMBIA VALLEY. This 5yo brown son of Dynaformer is looking to translate his razor-sharp form in allowance company into a Grade 2 score. Ranked No. 46 in the turf route division with 150 stakes points, Columbia Valley has a right to move way up the standings with a victory Saturday in a field he should hold a class advantage against. The only problem is, Columbia Valley has a whole boatload of stakes points that are about to expire. His ranking is based primarily on a victory last May in the Grade I Cobber Mile, run on May 21, 2011. No matter what he does in the Confederate Stakes, Columbia Valley is about to take a tumble down his divisional rankings. A whopping 128 of his 150 stakes points are about to vanish. He can replace half that total with a victory in the Confederate Stakes. To be perfectly honest about the horse, it’s probably only fair that he slide down the rankings. This horse is not much of a graded competitor, most of the time. In eight graded stakes tries prior to his big win last May, Columbia Valley was almost always well beaten. The best he had to show for those eight races was a third-place run in a Grade 3 in Czechoslavakia that attracted only six runners. Then, lightning struck last May and Columbia Valley came flying from 10 lengths back to take down a big Grade I. It was good spotting by the Supers, as that Grade I had only eight runners. Still, Columbia Valley was 12-1, but he was the winner and his lifetime of troubles in graded racing were gone. Or, so it seemed. Soon after that huge score, Columbia Valley returned to his old ways. He could not be found near the front of graded races. He was trounced soundly in four straight. Now, Columbia Valley takes another shot at graded company after a lifetime of failure at this level, save one huge race. The horse only has limited experience at nine furlongs, and won at this distance two back in nice time. This is a soft Grade 2 and you might see Columbia Valley take advantage.

My man Adrian, aka The Astinator, is turning up in just about every race I cover for the BTB these days. It’s a pleasure to watch a winning player like Adrian operate and we get another chance to see his work with PHANTASEA, a 6yo chestnut son of Kingmambo. Here we see a little bit different of an approach than you get with the Super Stables. Columbia Valley is only a 5yo, yet has 36 starts, seven more than Adrian’s Phantasea, who is a year older. The Super philosophy always has been, “what’s he going to do, die?” Well, no, but he might go back to knocking around in allowance fields for a while. Adrian has taken a different approach, giving this horse his time and arriving at his 6yo season with plenty of gas left in the tank. Phantasea has won 11 of 29 starts, all but one of those coming on the turf. Phantasea has raced only once on the dirt, and never, ever in a sprint race. Adrian knew he had a turf route horse with Phantasea, and eschewed sprint races, even at the outset of his career. Adrian has long ago decided that Phantasea’s best distance is nine furlongs on the turf, so he’s playing a very familiar game on Saturday. Of his 29 career starts, 18 of them have been at a mile and an eighth on the turf. So, that much is settled with this horse. Now, we have to see about his class at age 6. For the most part, Adrian has kept him in listed stakes. Remember, this is a player who is here to win races. It is not very often that you are going to find an Adrian horse in an overmatched spot. Usually, it works the other way. Phantasea won his first two graded attempts, and since then, has only tried graded races three times in his last 14 starts. So, it says something that Adrian is willing to run in this Grade 2 spot on Saturday. It helps to confirm that this is not a tough field for a graded race, because you know the trainer has shopped for a soft spot. It tells us that Adrian has confidence in the horse right now. I always respect this guy’s horses.

Now, here is a horse we just covered in his most recent start. (I guess it must be time for another extended vacation from the BTB! LOL). I hope the great Dixie will forgive this writer for having a little fun with WALL STREET GHOST in the BTB recap. You know, the old “failed to materialize in the stretch.” But, it was all in the spirit of the occasion! The race we covered was the Grade I Woody Ford on the Bluegrass Derby undercard, and it was a tough race for Wall Street Ghost. He just floundered at the back of the pack, never getting his feet under him and never making a move. Now, he comes back on two weeks rest on what we can only assume is an early sharp. This horse has snapped right back from poor runs in the past, but his latest runs against full fields inspire no confidence whatsoever. Now, before we get too carried away and dismiss Wall Street Ghost’s chances, let’s take a look on the bright side. For starters, this is Dixie. This guy has his own wing at the Simulated Hall of Fame. If he says this horse can run right back, a handicapper has to respect that. Also, that big speed figure of 114 at this distance looks very nice two back. If he can run back to that, he can win here Saturday. For the most part, Wall Street Ghost has struggled in graded company. He tried this same trick last year, running in the Confederate Stakes two weeks after the Woody Ford. He was fourth in the Kentucky race and sixth in last year’s version of this race. He’s missed the board in his last nine graded tries in a row.

Crackjac Stables is going to try their luck with a jump from allowance company to graded with ONTARIO LIGHT, a 4yo brown son of the Irish sire Oratorio. It’s going to be a big jump indeed, especially considering Ontario Light’s most recent race was a very soft spot. He beat a short field of four as the odds-on favorite, only needing a 97 to win. That snapped a streak of five straight triple-digit speed figures for this horse. This is another horse who fits a repeating theme in the Confederate Stakes of runners who restore form in allowance races then struggle to translate that into graded racing. This horse has been a consistent performer throughout his 17-race career, as long as he was not in a graded spot. In three races in graded company, Ontario Light has not run at all, finishing up the track each time. He’s got a serious negative trend to reverse on Saturday if he’s to get a piece. One thing that may dissuade handicappers from trying to make a case for Ontario Light in his fourth graded attempt is his lack of winning at the distance. The horse has started five times lifetime at nine panels, and still has no victories to show for it. So, that’s a second giant trend that Ontario Light will have to reverse. One thing you can say for this horse is that he does remain eligible to improve. He’s only a 4yo and he remains lightly raced with only 17 starts under his belt. Maybe he can do better. He’s going to have to run faster, that’s all.

By now, as a handicapper, we are looking for a horse who has had any kind of graded success. More than one of the top qualifiers have longstanding records of failure in graded racing. You’re not going to have much luck picking winners if you fly in the face of longtime oh’fer trends. Is there anybody in here who has not been way up the track every time they try a graded race? Maybe we find our hero in the fifth-place qualifier, HAACK’S BREAKER. The morning-line oddsmaker is onto this horse, making him the second choice at 5-1. I see a lot of things to like with Haack’s Breaker, as well. Let’s start with the trainer. Otto Haack (Venezuela) is a very tough outfit indeed. Haack has compiled an aggregate win percentage of 20.6 percent with 40 stables representing Hispano Parlante. We start handicapping this horse with confidence in the trainer, and then we see that he was second in this race last year. It does not look like last year’s running of the Confederate Stakes was much of a tough field, either. There were only nine runners. But, to the credit of Haack’s Breaker, he took advantage of it. In that race, Haack’s Breaker was reserved in sixth early, drifting back as far as 8 1/2 lengths behind a lonely leader before commencing his run. The winner responded to the charge of Haack’s Breaker, but he carried on strongly to the finish to be a clear second. To this date, it remains the best race of the horse’s career. There’s a lot to like here. He’s won two of his last three, his form is good and he’s running his preferred distance. This is the fourth race back off a nice rest so there should be gas in the tank.

Looks like we have a live horse down on the rail with the Rafa Stables‘ VIK, a 4yo chestnut son of Dynaformer. This horse has won two of his last three and popped a big 110 speed figure last out when winning in a short field of four. Maybe that race was a sign of better things to come for Vik, who had been showing a tendency to hang a little in his nine-furlong races. But not last time, as Vik recorded a suprisingly fast time considering it was only four horses in an allowance race. Vik has presented Rafa with a bit of a challenging training job. Early in his career, as he began his career on turf, he showed an ability to pass horses, but then gradually developed into more of a frontrunner. He won some races that way, lost some, and then changed again into more of a stalking style. Even as this horse has struggled to find his best game, you have to give Rafa credit for guiding him to a good racing record. Vik has a very solid career mark of 15 for 27 in the exacta, with earnings of $265,000. HIs current hot streak may not be as impressive as it seems at first glance. Both of those wins were in short fields of four. Now, the Confederate Stakes does not look like the toughest graded race ever seen, but it’s a lot tougher than a short field of four in allowances. Some handicappers may remain unconvinced that Vik has overcome his tendency to hang. If he carries his speed through the stretch here, it would be more convincing.

Randy619 Stables‘ POINT DRIVEN had a string of good finishes snapped last out when he could manage only 8th in the Grade 3 Jennifer Connley. Before that defeat, Point Driven had been in the exacta in seven consecutive races, mostly in allowance company. During that streak, Randy ventured only once into stakes company, and even then, in an opportune short field of four. So, a full field of 14 in the Grade 3 Connley was a big jump for this horse, and it showed. He made a meager move to advance only slightly between the second and third calls, but had no speed to advance in the stretch. Randy gives him another shot here in the Grade 2 Confederate Stakes. It’s as good a place as any to take a shot with this horse because this is about as soft a graded race as you want to see. If this horse is on his game, he should be on the lead or near to it. He was very forwardly placed in that string of good allowance runs, leading at the head of the stretch in five straight races. He never got in that good position last out. We’ll see if he can break into a little better position on Saturday. You never know. For instance, who could have known before Mario Lemieux arrived that the awful hockey team in Pittsburgh could someday be a Stanley Cup champion? Noting the pic on his stable page, we see we share an affinity for the black and gold with Randy. I grew up about an hour from Pittsburgh and would root for the town’s tiddly-winks team, if they had one.

Knightmare Stables brings back a fond childhood memory for me with INSIDE OR OUT, a 4yo brown son of Kingmambo. I can still remember and hear my mother’s voice like it was yesterday, talking to our family dog, Pebbles. “Inside or out!,” she would call out to our poor confused pooch. That was a good dog we had and Knightmare has a nice horse with Inside or Out. This horse is fast, lightly raced and improving. Let’s mark him down as dangerous in the Confederate Stakes. He’s going to be forwardly placed, and with not a whole lot of tough customers entering the gate on Saturday, there may not be much to run him down in this Grade 2. This horse shows two good races at nine furlongs a while back, but it’s been a while since he’s been the distance. Lately, he’s been running just a bit farther, at 9.5 furlongs and 10 furlongs. There are a couple of mile races sprinkled in there, as well. Knightmare has taken his time with this scratchbred and it’s starting to pay dividends. Inside or Out is in very sharp current form, having missed the exacta only once in his last seven races, of which he won three. The horse’s speed figures have improved along with his class and ability to carry his speed. Can he find a comfortable spot toward the front here and make the pace work in his favor?

The Universal Racing Club is well represented in the Confederate Stakes. First, we had the second qualifier, Phantasea for Adrian. Now, we have GOLOHNRO for the Tazdevil Stables. This 4yo brown son of AP Warrior has been consistent in finding his way into trifecta tickets, if not into the top spot. In 22 career races, Golohnro only has missed the board six times, but has only won three. Normally, we would be asking a lot of a horse who is 3 for 22 lifetime to pick up his fourth win in a Grade 2. Can we make a case for Golohnro? A closer look at this horse’s racing career reveals why he has shown a tendency to pick up minor awards. He’s a big late mover, but most of the time, he does not start running until it’s too late. Witness his race three back in the Grade 3 Strange Brew going Saturday’s distance of nine furlongs. Golohnro was 12th early, then made a big move at 12-1 to get up for third. So, that race right there gives Golohnro an advantage over opponents in this race who have struggled completely in graded racing. Golohnro only has tried the graded level twice, and at least has a third-place run to show for it. Some of these other horses show long records of missing the board in graded company. Look for this horse to retreat out of the gate, and make one run. You may not want him on top of your trifecta tickets, but should strongly consider including him underneath.

Another deep closer in this race is going to be Trotter’s WAKI’S AP, a 7yo chestnut son of AP Indy. This horse is now a millionaire, just barely. Trotter stuck with this horse, and now, with 40 starts under his belt, has $1,003,320 in career earnings. It has taken a lot of persistence and patience for Trotter to get this horse to a million, not to mention a little bit of good fortune. At one time, Waki’s AP lost 20 races in a row! After winning a listed stake in January 2009, Waki’s AP did not revisit the winner’s circle until July 2011, an absence of more than two years! Talk about sticking with your horse. Even as Waki’s AP lost one race after another, always starting his rally too late to threaten, Trotter kept his course with him. And why not? Waki’s AP was not winning, but he was repeatedly picking up checks in graded races. That 20-race losing streak included no fewer than four second-place runs in graded company. So, all was not lost. Ironic, isn’t it? Waki’s AP was not winning, but he was turning in good speed figures and picking up stakes points. In graded races going only nine furlongs, Waki’s AP is a very, very late runner. Most of his races have been longer, and the horse has shown the ability to hit the board in graded company going as long as 12 furlongs. Eventually, Waki’s AP broke his losing streak in an ESR-restricted race, then backed that up with some very good fortune. Apparently, the good turf horses were afraid to run on Halloween last year, as only five showed up for a Grade 3 going a mile and a half in New York. And so, a graded victory fell right into the lap of Waki’s AP. Despite only winning one of his last 23 at the time, Waki’s AP went off the 1.4-1 favorite and converted the soft spot, rallying from a 12-length deficit to get up for his first graded win. I’m glad to see a little good luck came this horse’s way. He never had much luck in all those good graded runs he made, then he got lucky and found one he could win. The horse is cutting way back in distance for this race and can be expected to just walk out of the gate, drop far back, and try to rally late.

Finally, we have IT’S PERSONAL NOW, a lightly raced brown 5yo son of Kingmambo trained by the very capable Willyam. Like other trainers here, including the Super Gang, Willyam might be paying a little more attention to a race before this one on the Maryland card. Willyam has entered BB Classic champion TWIST TWIST in the Grade 3 Billy Donald. Also, he has two runners in Grade I races elsewhere in the Sim. I’m just going to take an educated guess and say that Willyam’s other graded runners probably make more sense in their races than It’s Personal Now does in the Confederate Stakes. After all, this horse has only raced three times on the turf, and only won $44,400 so far on the green. The horse was only switched to the turf track after he ran five poor races in a row on the main oval. Now, here is a funny little “twist” to the story on this horse. Willyam is running his big horse in the Grade 3 Billy Donald, right? Guess who won that race last year? That’s right, it was this horse! It’s Personal Now won the 2011 version of the Billy Donald, going nine furlongs on the main track right here in Maryland on the undercard for last year’s Middle Jewel. However, that was It’s Personal Now’s last good race on the dirt. It was after that he ran off the board in increasingly dismal fashion five times in a row. It was after that the decision was made to switch him to turf. So, he’s not going to defend his title in the dirt race, and instead leaves that job to his more qualified stablemate. One thing there is to like about this horse despite his lack of turf accomplishment is the fact that he’s running his preferred distance. Turf or dirt, It’s Personal Now does his best running at nine furlongs.