2012 Bluegrass Oaks

Owner: Jeter (Fleetwood)
Jockey: F Griffen
Odds: 18/1

FLEETWOOD FLEURY

This Any Given Saturday filly really has the female family behind her. Her mother is a G1 winning millionaire and also a stakes producer. This filly comes out of consecutive Grade ones. Her latest, the G1 Lool Oaks, was somewhat of a flop. Where she had no kick in the stretch, and finished 9th and well back in the field. But she did run very well two back when she finished 2nd in the G1 California Oaks. She came from more than seven lengths back to get up for 2nd late, beaten 2 ¼. She was awarded a nice 103 speed. I’m not sure she’s the right one to back here, but everyone has a chance.

ENSALATA

Another with the female family behind her, her dam is another multiple stakes producer. This filly, by Medaglia D’Oro, won a listed prep last out three weeks ago. A pace presence, this filly took a 9f listed gate to wire. Her winning margin was 1 ¾, she earned a 99 speed, a little under what the favorites have been running. Two back, she did not have an answer for the big girls in the G2 Louisiana Oaks. She pressed the pace early, but had no answer when the jock asked for the run. She faded to 10th, far back in the 14 horse field. She also ran dead last in the BB Juvy Fillies last year. She will be up close early, but not sure this filly will stick around late.

ESTRADA

This scratch bred beauty by Curlin is a four time graded winning millionaire already in her short career! She is a California gal, as she has been prepped this year exclusively in the state. Her last effort, in the G1 California Oaks, was a bit dull. She could only manage 4th in the 14 horse field, not making up much ground in the lane. Like others out of the same race, she will be coming into the race off a seven week layoff. Two back, she ran big, first time as a 3yo. In the G1 Los Vinegrette, she beat Bluegrass Derby favorite, Street Etiquette. In doing this, she joins only the favorite in this one, Final Exit, who has accomplished the feat of beating champion Street Etiquette. Estrada out gamed her rival through the stretch to win by a length. This filly always gives a good run, and the 2nd place finisher from the BB Juvy Fillies will be in the hunt here.

MEDULLA OBLONGATA

Another well bred filly, another by the sire Medaglia D’Oro. Another with a stakes winning mama, this filly’s running style is to take back and make a late run. Last out, in the G2 Fantasia, she made a big run around the turn, but was stacked very wide on that turn, which might’ve cost her the race. She could not get by the winner-one of her rivals today-in the lane. She finished 2nd, beaten 1 ½. She also finished 2nd in the G3 Davola Dane two races back. With the some insider info from trainer casino, I learned this filly was not trained up to the race, as she came out of her last race needs rest. Maybe a reason to back off this filly, but on paper she looks good.

MADE INDY USA

This filly has a tremendous, monster pedigree, buy A. P. Indy out a Storm Cat he-mare, and just to add on her dds is the great Alydar. This front running filly has faded in her last two starts. Last out, she could not manage to get the early lead. She took the lead at the top of stretch, but had nowhere near the kick needed to stick with the winner and others in front of her. Three back was the run that got her in this race. In the G3 SilverBulletBeer at 8.5 furlongs, she set an honest early pace, and had enough to juice to hold on late, going gate to wire. She ended up winning by 1 ¼, and was awarded a 100 speed, a high fig for early February. Filly will be up close early, but I doubt she’ll stick around.

DOUBT’S ABOUT

This Redoute’s Choice filly started her career off slow, but has come charging on a 3yo. Going 3 for 4 this year, this fillies only defeat came last out, after she made the big step up into the G1 Lool Oaks. She stalked the early pace, as she always does, made a run around the turn, but could not keep pace with the winner, Final Exit, in the final eighth of a mile. Two back, she won an 8.5 furlong listed, running down the leader late to win by 1 ½. She’ll be sitting in a stalking position until the stretch when she is wheeled out for the drive, we’ll see if she has the needed class and stamina to kick past the leaders and hold off the closers.

WONDERFUL DREAM

This Curlin filly out of a stakes winning Vindication mare tried a derby lock prep last time out, a plan that didn’t work out. In the Arkansas Juvenile, she dropped back early and never made any kind of run, finishing 12th, well back in the field. Two back, she did not appreciate the wet track in the G2 Miss Bonnie at 9 furlongs. As usual, the jock took her back early. She moved into 5th at the 3rd call but failed to make up any more ground after that, finishing 5th, beaten almost 10 lengths. Her crowning achievement to date came in the G1 Vermont Is 4 Lovers three races back. She was a little closer to place than usual, coming from 5th place; she took the lead at the quarter pole, and won by 2 ¼ lengths. Will be interesting to see where the jock places her early, she has a chance, but not my pick here.

INCREDIBLE SHOW

Another well bred filly, this one by Awesome Again turned in a clunker last time out. This filly’s dam is also a stakes winner and stakes producer. Filly will be coming in to the race off a seven week layoff, and has only raced twice this year. Her last win came more than seven months ago, but she is in the race and that means she has a chance. Her last race was the G1 California Oaks, where she never threatened, finishing 10th. Her run two back was not bad, where she made a nice late run to get 2nd in the historical Vermont is 4 Lovers at the Oaks distance of nine furlongs. She has beaten by many of her competitors already, and I don’t see her figuring much in the Oaks.

RATTLE THAT CAGE

Another well bred filly, this one is by a Danehill son Danehill Dancer. The last filly to get into this race, is another pace presser/setter, she made her stakes debut in her last race, a bought G2 at 9 furlongs in Spain. She set a pressured early pace, and dug in gamely throughout the stretch, but could not match the winners strides late, a rival of hers in the Oaks, Box Of Time. She finished 2nd, beaten 2 lengths. She has never broken the 100 speed figure barrier in her 10 race career, and that is a bit of a worry. Another issue I have with this filly, is she is very light on stakes races, which could end up being a positive for the filly, but I don’t think so. She’ll be another up close early, and can probably can get the distance, but I don’t think she has the class to stick around late.

FINAL EXIT

This royally bred filly sired by Dynaformer is trained by sim legend dixiedotco. This filly is out of Grade two winner and multiple stakes producing mare, Heaven’s Gate. The Oaks favorite is undefeated on the year, going 3 for 3, all graded races. Last out, she took one of the main preps for this race, the Lool Oaks. Coming from just off the pace, she drew away impressively to take it by 1 ¾. Two back she won the G2 Louisiana Oaks by a neck, and three back she won the G3 Dubai 2000 Guineas by 1 ½. She also owns the second highest last race speed figure, a 105. This filly has a lot going for her, and will be very tough on Saturday.

GIANT ZEN

This nicely bred daughter of Zensational was tested against the boy last time out, where, as usual, she made a nice late run to get 2nd in the G1 Wooden Indian. Coming from more than 12 lengths back, she passed many accomplished and tough colts in the stretch. Two back, her only win on the season, was a nice one. She again came from far back, and passed everyone in front of her to win by 2 lengths. Her last two starts have both been triple digit speed figures. She will be coming from the backfield in the stretch, but will there be enough early pace to set it up for her?

BOX OF TIME

This filly by Montjeu, who has won half of her 10 races, is another with a killer pedigree. Her half sister, Artemis And Apollo, is a multiple G1 winner. Another closer, this filly won the Las Vegas In Spain last time out, a bought 9 furlong G2. Coming from eight lengths back, she powered home nicely to draw away late, winning by 2 lengths. She was given a 100 speed. Two back she was beaten by a few of her rivals in this one in the G1 California Oaks. Coming from the back of the pack, the filly made a solid stretch run to get up for 3rd, beaten more than three lengths. She does have a run over the KY track, last year she was 2nd in the G2 Golden Red. Filly will come with a late run, but I’m not sure she’s good enough to be in the trifecta.

IT’S YOUR FAULT

This rapidly improving Blame filly comes into the race with back to back wins. Last out, she tried her first graded race ever, the G2 Fantasia at 8.5 furlongs. She was in the middle of the pack going down the backstretch, as usual. She moved within a length of the lead on the turn, and finished the best late to win by 1 ½. She was given a career high 104 speed. Two back, she won an 8.5 listed. Coming from seven back in a five horse field, she took the lead at the top of the lane, and held off a late challenge to win by 1 ¾. One of the two entrants in the race from trainer padrebri, this filly might get the perfect trip, getting first jump on all the closers.

ELUSIVE MAAM

This scratch-bred filly by Elusive Quality has followed an interesting path this year. She started her 3yo campaign in a track restricted KY allowance. As the 1-5 favorite, the jock took back early, and let her gallop along the first ½ mile of the race. She started to move as they came around the far turn, and galloped by her overmatched rivals through the stretch to win by more than 3 lengths. This easy prep led into the G3 Lady Bourbon, not a “usual” prep for the G1 Bluegrass Oaks. She came from dead last, 12 lengths back, to storm home through the stretch and win off by 1 ½. This run gave her the highest last race beyer, a big 106. Trainer masterm is confident she is ready to run the race of her life, she has the same jock she won with last out, and will be very tough here if she can get the 9f distance.

STORM SAGA

The wild card. What a monkey wrench trainer snowchief threw into the race when she entered her 7 for 7 filly by Tale Of Ekati. With four 4 wins sprinting, and 3 routing, this filly is obviously very talented. Not ever, ever, has another horse been in front of this filly, meaning she has gone wire to wire in all of her races. She prepped in the 6.5 furlong G3 Saint Paula last out. Taking the early lead, the filly had enough to hold on and win, but only by ¾ of a length. Her biggest route win came in the G1 Movieland Starlet, last year at 8.5 furlongs in December. She opened a big five length lead coming around the turn, and had just enough to hold on. She ended up winning by ¼ of a length. She probably will have the early lead, but this undefeated filly will need some luck to stay around late.

STOLEN AWAY

The second of two entrants from trainer padrebri, this filly is by Fusaichi Pegasus out of a stakes winning mare. A very consistent filly this one is, she has only been out of the top four once, and the trifecta twice. She prepped three weeks ago in the G2 Mellow Breeze at a mile. She sat a few lengths off the pace in the early stages. She made her move coming around the turn, and got into 2nd. She had the whole stretch to get by the winner, but failed to make up any ground, finishing 2nd beaten ¼ of a length. Two back in the G2 Louisiana Oaks, she made the pace until mid stretch, when she ran out of steam, and faded to 4th, beaten 2 ½. Her last two races have both been good, but I question her preferred distance and I’m not sure she’s the right on here.

SECRET SHUFFLER

Another well bred filly, this one by Speightstown, has only lost once her in eight race career. Last out in a mile allowance prep, she came from the farthest back she has ever been in her career, to draw away easily, winning by 3 lengths. Two back, she took one of the biggest preps for the Bluegrass Oaks, the G1 California Oaks. She sat right off the early pace, and pulled away fairly easily in the stretch to win by more than two lengths. She earned a 103 speed for the 1:42:1 running time for 8.5 furlongs. She’ll be sitting in a stalking position early, and should be in a good spot turning for home, we’ll see if she’s good enough to get the job done.

FINE POINT

This filly by Indian Charlie has thrown in two very poor performances this year. Her last start in the G1 Lool Oaks was one of those flops. Racing in mid pack early on, eight lengths back, she never could make up any ground, finishing 8th beaten almost nine lengths. Her best race to date came two back in the G2 Louisiana Oaks. She raced only a few lengths off the leaders throughout the race, and plotted along in the stretch to get 3rd, beaten 1 ¾. She did earn a 101 speed figure in that race. She’ll probably start off in the middle of the pack, and I really do not see this filly being there late in the stretch.

SUMMER LUXURY

This well bred Summer Bird filly has already raced twelve times in her career, four times this year. Another front runner, this filly won the G2 Mellow Breeze last time out. She stalked the pace in that one, sitting right off the leader. She took the lead coming for home and had just enough, holding on to win by ¼ of a length. Two back, she went gate to wire in a 9 furlong turf listed, winning by ¾ of a length. Three back, in the 9 furlong Vermont Is 4 Lovers, she set the pace, but was passed for many of her rivals in this one, fading to 6th. She’ll be another up front, and although she has a win at 9.5 furlongs, I doubt she will stick around late.

NEWBIE’S LUCK

Another wild card. This Special Week filly also has her female family behind her, her dam, a G1 winning millionaire who was 4th in this exact race, has been nothing short of spectacular in the breeding shed. Every one of her babies has been at least stakes placed, but I guess this could be expected when you see she is Storm Cat x Mr. Prospector. Let’s get to her daughter, racing four times this year, all listed stakes; the filly has won all of them. This may have something to do with distance of the races all being 9.5 or 10 furlongs. Her last, at 10 furlongs, was a nice effort, where she came from 6 lengths back to pull away late, winning by 1 ½. Two back, she ran the highest speed of her career, winning by 2 ½ in a 9.5 furlong listed. Although she was a step or two behind the top fillies last year, she will get the perfect trip from the outside post, and you have to respect this filly out of the topicount barn.