Bluegrass Derby – The Chat Pack’s Final Preview

HR-spinround Well it is finally here

HR-spinround We’ve got a Bluegrass Derby field

HR-spinround First congratulations must go out to jetman, who’s Major Alex made the cut

HR-beisbol: woohoo!!!

HR-beisbol: lucky #14

HR-frankster: yep, congrats again mike!

HR-jetman: Very very excited

HR-spinround There were three late entries today, let’s give them their due before going on to discuss the entire field.

HR-jetman: lol

HR-beisbol: lets

HR-spinround One of them was out before he was in, Main Runner was #23 when he entered and never really had a shot at making the field.

HR-frankster: moot point then

HR-spinround He would have had the highest last out speed (107) if he had made it, but really the entry was a pipe dream

HR-spinround That was not the case for Silverton

HR-beisbol: perhaps it was “just in case”

HR-spinround He’s a Smart Strike x Silver Deputy x Dixieland Band colt

HR-spinround Owned by Lilbitfarm he’s got a 9-7-1-0 $816,165 record

HR-jetman: He is simply on a tear

HR-jetman: Is there a hotter streak heading into this weekends race?

HR-spinround That might be an understatement

HR-spinround Five straight wins

HR-frankster: Silverton is a beast

HR-spinround Three stakes, two G-1s

HR-spinround The only race he was off-the-board in was his debut

HR-beisbol: hard to find a flaw with this one

HR-frankster: and he’s presence is surely in the back of every other trainers mind in the derby

HR-beisbol: even the he-mare he sprouted from liked 9.5-10 furlongs

HR-spinround He’s beaten three other starters in his last two starts, Immensely, Stevieboy and Clinton’s Ditch

HR-frankster: and ironically has Dan in the Saddle 🙂

HR-jetman: Excellent training job, brought him along slowly and with a solid plan.

HR-beisbol: this horse is kinda redick, as in RIDICULOUS

HR-jetman: that is not Dan frank, but that is a mistake many have made.

HR-beisbol: it’s like we expect him to win. scary stuff.

HR-beisbol: frankster don’t make no mistakes, hush yo’ mouth.

HR-spinround He is scary, he’s just dominated his fields

HR-frankster: Silverton is 2nd choice in the morning line behind Mark’s sick filly

HR-spinround He won the Wooden Indian last out by 3 lengths

HR-beisbol: I have nothing more to say except that if he wins, we should be thinking Triple Crown. He’s THAT good.

HR-jetman: I was just going to say that donny … are we looking at the second triple crown winner in sim history?

HR-frankster: it’s hard to find something negative so say as even distance doesn’t appear to be a question mark

HR-spinround Our final entry snuck in at #20 just before entries closed

HR-jetman: BEN GOWANS!

HR-spinround Owned by Gowans, Southern Migration is a son of Summer Bird x Tiznow x Kris S.

HR-spinround He’s 7-2-2-1 $199,594

HR-jetman: As always i defer to my fellow round table mates on the breeding questions, but this one seems loaded with stamina?

HR-spinround This colt won the Grade Two Ransom last year over Stevieboy

HR-beisbol: yes I would put him on the list of New Yorker candidates for sure

HR-beisbol: his progression since that G2 win has been disappointing

HR-spinround I don’t think pedigree will hold him back on Saturday. Speed is my question, he’s never popped a 100+

HR-beisbol: true enough

HR-jetman: There is always a first time

HR-beisbol: maybe a return to the East Coast will do him right.

HR-beisbol: he does have my favorite jockey in the SIM, New Zealand’s own GD Mate

HR-beisbol: who won the Breeders Bowl Marathon Dirt this year on GATO DEL LAGO

HR-beisbol: of course that has almost nothing to do with this race today…

HR-jetman: lol .. nice plug though donny

HR-beisbol: I do my best.

HR-frankster: southern migration is in over his head here but does have pedigree to get the distance with a HUGE step up

HR-beisbol: I agree with Frank… if he takes back and makes a late run, he might grab a share and put himself in contention for a win in the Third Jewel

HR-spinround I’m not as crazy about him as you guys, but I’d be fine being proven wrong

HR-frankster: he’s hemare was sub par performer so too many questions

HR-jetman: Oddsmakers are with you two as Southern Migration is our longest draw in the field at 26/1

HR-spinround So let’s take a broader view of the race

HR-beisbol: I’d use him in the “under” spot for the superfecta

HR-spinround Do you think post positions favor/hurt anyone in particular?

HR-beisbol opens his eyes really wide

HR-spinround Street Etiquette in the 2 post may find herself on the lead early

HR-beisbol: I wouldn’t want to be 18-19-20… it just seems so far away

HR-frankster: LETMEGOCRAZYONU(KY) could be compromised by 18th post

HR-jetman: connections for Proust and Skitzoid can’t be pleased at drawing the 20th & 19th gates

HR-spinround Proust does take back early, it may not hurt him as much as the other two

HR-beisbol: STEVIEBOY ran 2nd in the Lane’s End when breaking from post 2, so the rail here should be considered a bonus.

HR-spinround Actually Skitzoid is a closer also

HR-jetman: Who do we expect to set the pace?

HR-beisbol: RAS EL HANOUT always seems to be on the outside, so I would imagine Super is ok with #15

HR-frankster: Immensely could get squeezed back coming out of the 3 hole

HR-beisbol: I can see STREET ETIQUETTE gunning it and playing Catch-me-if-you-can, boys.

HR-jetman: I will say i am not unhappy with the #14 post for Major Alex, as it seems he always was to the outside in his races

HR-spinround I actually see the filly going early here

HR-frankster: a familar tune donny!

HR-frankster: 😉

HR-spinround Gengis Khani may be forwardly placed if he breaks well, although I don’t think he needs the lead

HR-jetman: and another plug, we are on a roll gang

HR-jetman: Bolton Valley has wired a graded field in the past

HR-beisbol: yes if I didn’t know the trainer was in the room, I would say that the only chance for MAJOR ALEX is to be 1-2 the entire trip and hope to outlast the closers

HR-frankster: agree spin, should be part of the pace for sure

HR-frankster: GENGIS KHANI(IRE) that is

HR-jetman: I would prefer he refrained from setting the pace, i always liked when he was stalking.

HR-spinround This is a very strong field, but donny you mentioned earlier you thought Silverton could be a Triple Crown threat

HR-spinround Are there any others you think could go all the way?

HR-beisbol: but as many of us know (hello, cvbear) – Jockey Select is a dangerous thing. Some lovely rider may decide to go all Stewart Elliot on us and send that closer to the front.

HR-jetman: I would say Ras El Hanout has to be considered in the triple crown talk

HR-beisbol: Silverton would be my favorite in the Triple Crown pool, indeed. Maybe 50-1 ?

HR-beisbol: I agree… he’s undefeated on dirt. But a Super-trained horse means they are probably doing everything right… how will the horse respond to racing on 2 weeks rest?

HR-spinround I think Gengis Khani might be the best of this group. With only six starts he could explode.

HR-frankster: If STREET ETIQUETTE(KY) has a cozy trip out front she will be tough to beat IMO

HR-beisbol: He may be at a disadvantage there.

HR-jetman: Letmegocrazyonu has been really good this year … 1st or 2nd in three straight Grade Ones …

HR-spinround Ok well let’s not waste any more time. Give us your picks and why.

HR-jetman: Ladies first spin

HR-spinround Alright

HR-jetman takes out his pen & paper to take notes

HR-frankster: although i would fully expect SILVERTON(KY) to keep the filly clearly in his sights

HR-spinround I have to cheer for Major Alex. It is purely sentimental but I would go nuts for his owner if this colt crossed the wire first. One of the best guys in the sim.

HR-spinround Proust & Gengis Khani round out my trifecta

HR-beisbol: wow, that’d be some payout!

HR-beisbol: good luck to Chat Pack’s very own Jetman and Major Alex

HR-jetman: wow spin … I am speechless. I didn’t realize your drinking was that bad

HR-beisbol: cough cough NOSHOT cough

HR-spinround lol jet

HR-jetman: But i thank you kindly

HR-beisbol has something in his throat

HR-spinround if you have read my BTB articles my sentimental choices actually have done pretty well 😉

HR-jetman: Its okay donny … your up bud .. give us your selections

HR-beisbol: ok… maybe a shocker on top

HR-beisbol: I really like how WEEKLY EXPRESS(JPN) is coming along. He seems to be maturing with time, and relishing the distance. A real grinder… not going to make a flashy move, but will try to wear down the front runners and stave off the deep closers.

HR-beisbol: For second, I think SILVERTON cannot be discounted. There is no reason to think he isn’t going to fire and fire a good one. My guess is he is one that gets close but can’t go by.

HR-beisbol: Third, I have a dead heat between STREET ETIQUETTE and RAS EL HANOUT – for the same reasons, in fact. STREET ETIQUETTE may find herself on the lead too soon if the pace is soft, and I think she’ll be valiant but the extra ground is something she may not like.

HR-frankster: sorry pc keeps freezing

HR-jetman: Just in time frank … you are up sir .. give us your picks

HR-beisbol: RAS EL HANOUT looks like one who will be flying late, but maybe his kick is diluted by the longer race…

HR-beisbol: 7 over the 2, 13, 15

HR-frankster: Well I’ll go with the super filly freak to have her way on the front end which would also make for a great story!

HR-beisbol: filly bias!

HR-frankster: lol

HR-jetman: you just doing a win bet frank .. or you going to give our readers some other betting choices?

HR-frankster: i’ll go with Silverton running underneath the filly

HR-spinround Ok jet, let’s hear it 🙂

HR-frankster: and also like Immensely to hit the board here so i’ll throw him in a trifecta

HR-frankster: Hey, i’m not done! :))

HR-spinround lol sorry Frank!

HR-frankster: and the Japanese invader RAS EL HANOUT to roundout my superfecta

HR-frankster: in closing, perhaps this is the year of the FILLY 😉

HR-frankster: so recapping numbers…..2 – 13 – 3 – 15

HR-frankster: stage is yours mike, sorry 🙂

HR-jetman: Well let me begin by stating i will be throwing a few Benjamins on Major Alex to win. I just have to believe, and at 22/1 that would be one hell of a party!!!

HR-jetman: But our readers don’t want to hear that .. so we will go with hot horse Silverton to win, Gengis Khani to place and Street Etiquette to round out my top three. I found nine horses i wanted to include in some fashion, but we gotta keep it real. Silverton is on fire, Gengis Khani seems primed to explode, and Street Etiguette just oozes class.

HR-jetman: Seriously though … was a tough race to handicap

HR-spinround You heard it hear first. Lots of love for the filly, Silverton and Gengis Khani

HR-beisbol: I’m on an island with WEEKLY EXPRESS

HR-beisbol: but much respect to the big 2 and Ras El — the big 3?

HR-jetman: donny i had Weekly Express in my list

HR-spinround That just means it will be all the sweeter if you are right donny

HR-beisbol: u did?

HR-beisbol: that’s what I said, right?

HR-jetman: just didn’t make my final three lol

HR-jetman: i said i had a list of nine i was working with. He was in THAT list

HR-jetman: You were the only person to select him in your wager

HR-spinround I think I can safely say that all of us in the Chat Pack offer big congratulations to everyone who has a runner in the Bluegrass Derby.

HR-spinround We’ll be cheering for a cleanly run race and for every horse to come back safe.

HR-beisbol: absolutely. its a huge accomplishment to draw into the field

HR-jetman: Good luck everyone!