The weather has to be better than Ludlow last Sunday

race 5037.4912
E5, The 1000 Guineas-G1, 3yo F 8F Turf

The following are the pedigrees of the 5 day entries for the real 1,000 Guineas.

Sir Percy*Selkirk*Alzao
Iffraaj*Danehill*Indian Ridge
Street Cry*Dixieland Band*Seattle Slew
Dansili*Pivotal*Warning
Excellent Art*Definite Article*Common Grounds
Holy Roman Emperor*Diesis*Mount Hagen
Strategic Prince*Galileo*Slip Anchor
Clodovil*Darshaan*Lead On Time
Marju*Rossini*Vettori
Dark Angel*Docksider*Bellypha
Street Cry*Green Desert*Warning
Barathea*Spinning World*Lomond
Galileo*Danehill*Indian Ridge
Trade Fair*Kyllachy*Red Sunset
Cape Cross*Danehill*Kris
Multiplex*Al Hareb*Taufan
Selkirk*Rainbow Quest*Storm Bird
Holy Roman Emperor*So Factual*Dodge
Dansili*Sadler’s Wells*Mtoto
Galileo*Spectrum*Drumalis
Galileo*Mozart*Lake Coniston

All bar two of the five day entries are by sires based in Europe the other being one who was bred in Ireland and trained in Dubai. Again with dam sires only one is a non European raced horse. The dds spot only finds two none European raced horses. Again showing how little US horses influence worldwide racing today. The way the sim will differ from real life is the global impact of only having one hemisphere. You would therefore expect at least a few horses bred in Australia from non dual hemisphere sires but not much else. The grade 1 race last weekend in Japan tells you lot’s about the quality of racing there at present the winner being sent of 167-1 the second grade 1 winner this year in Japan at over 150-1.

It may be worth having a quick look at the pedigrees to see any trends areas to concentrate upon when trying to breed a top class turf horse. You have to hope the new game will as Mike hopes have much better stallion ratings across the board. Unlike some of the silly results like at present with Medagalia D’oro siring 10f grade 1 turf winners he has not even sired a 3yo graded stakes winner at this distance or above. He can sire a top class dirt horse especially fillies but as a turf sire the only sires that you could rate him higher than on the list above are Trade Fair and Multiplex. This is blatantly not reflected in the sim.

The thing that does stand out is classic form and in many cases classic form in this race by horses in the pedigree. If we look at the first pedigree which is not sim sexy but in real life is something to drool over.

Sir Percy who was featured recently on a sire focus came 2nd in the 2,000 before going on to win the Derby is a son of Mark Of Esteem who won the 2,000. Selkirk was a dual Europe and Champion miler and this is the female Family of Aussie Rules a classic winner in France also featured on a sire focus this year. As can be seen this horse has an ideal Classic pedigree.

At the end of the day if you want top class turf horses breed to class turf racehorses. The same works in reverse for dirt horses. It is also worth noting how many top class turf milers are in the pedigrees of these turf milers or spring pedigrees fused with 10-12f turf horses.

ARC A COMIN’ (GER) MONSUN (GER) x DANEHILL x KINGMAMBO

On paper this filly is one of the few horses bred to be involved in this race. It is good to see that she also has a very good chance at least. A try over 10f seemed well beyond her stamina capabilities which is a massive surprise given her sires record at stud. She is though very effective at a mile and bounced back with a graded win over today’s trip and a lifetime high speed figure. She won that race very easily indeed. There are very few negatives with this filly and on both pedigree and racing ability she has an outstanding chance of being a classic winner.

METEORIC BUDA (AUS) NORTHERN METEOR (AUS) x ROCK HARD TEN x STORM CAT

This is another horse I have covered before. Looking at its pedigree in all honesty it’s only chance of winning anything in England would be at a jousting tournament. With Fappiano, Kris S and Secretariat lurking it has to be like 19 hands tall. This filly has been very good until her last run where she was well beaten. The question was it her bad run (for her owner I honestly hope so) or was it a combination of other factors. A fast 2yo now on the downgrade possible that happens this time of year or could it be the trip. Some horses can win over a mile as 2yo’s early in their 3yo lifetime but as the better horse develop get found out before reverting to sprints. As a betting proposition this filly has to be passed over but has the ability to make the frame.

A GUN THAT SHOOTS (JPN) FRENCH DEPUTY x DANEHILL x BLUSHING GROOM (FR)

This horse has a great backend though the sire highlights the difficulties and task Mike sets himself in regional racing. French Deputy has been sent to a lesser stud in Japan for several years now and his quality of mare and numbers has fallen drastically. To highlight this look at Silver Charm who covered 7 mares in 2009 one of the top people at Three Chimneys visited Japan to make sure he was ok as they did not want him to go the way of a certain Kentucky Derby winner. French Deputy though he had success is now very much a low grade sire and needs a downgrade as do many US sires based in Japan (that is how they operate out there) they prefer local (Sunday Silence or European bloodlines). This horse has won two weekly contested turf allowance races and her effort in a maiden does not really suggest this is necessarily her best surface. She has a lot to prove here the ability to handle the class jump and also the ability to run triple digit speed figures. Her chances seem very low indeed.

SIX SIX SIX FIX (JPN) MATSURIDA GOGH (JPN) x BOSTON HARBOR x CRYPTOCLEARANCE

It was hard work trying to find out where this sire stood. The first thing is he won the same grade 3 race in Japan 3 years running. The stud he stands at is a lesser stud and provides the horses for the lower grade racing in Japan based on that this is a skid sire. The other factor is his back end which again highlights the problems with regional racing. There were two grade 1 races in Japan this last Sunday the first was won by a horse sired by a son of Sunday Silence out of a Tony Bin mare the others sire was by Sunday Silence out of Tony Bin. With horses bred in Japan in the sim Tony Bin should be god like as a broodmare sire the same as A P Indy on dirt and Sadler’s Wells on turf. This filly has a solid record winning 3 ungraded turf stakes races. She is obviously worth a shot at a graded race. The question is will she be good enough and fresh enough of 3 weeks rest. My gut instinct is the later is a bigger issue and she may run flat here.

MISS TIMOSHENKO (CAN) NORTH LIGHT (IRE) x DANEHILL x SECRETARIAT

I have covered this horse who was an outstanding 2yo before. Her sire continues to excel as the massive failure predicted in real life. After as expecting failing to stay when tried over further this filly was dropped back to a mile and won well in a graded race 3 weeks ago. This proves she still has the ability the obvious question is will this race come too soon and will she bounce? There is only one way to find out and that is run. On the back of a not ideal preparation I just get the feeling something will beat her though she has the ability to win and it would be no surprise to see her in the frame.

RUNAWAY MOON (KY) MALIBU MOON x SADLER’S WELLS x KINGMAMBO

This horse’s sire has managed 2o graded winners 90% on dirt. The two turf winners were from European mares but were in very poor aces in the US. In England and Ireland not one horse by him has broke a Timeform rating of 80 which equates to nothing that could win an allowance race in the sim. He is truly that bad outside the US. The chances of him siring next year’s 1,000 Guineas winner are far lower than Pep Guardiola being named Forest Green Rovers new manager on the 1 June. This is a decent filly with good speed figures. She has won a stakes race at above a mile which helps though both graded starts saw her outside the first three. Purely on how poor her sire is outside of the US hopefully that continues, though in truth she has a good chance of making the frame here.

HIGH DAIWA (JPN) DAIWA MAJOR (JPN) x HIGH CHAPARRAL (IRE) x JOLIE’S HALO

The sire here has his first 3yo’s this year and has managed a graded stakes winner this year. Like most sires in Japan he is being totally destroyed by Deep Impact who is on fire and if he continues in the same vain including has runners outside Japan will have to be rated as a top ten sire in the sim come 2013. This filly has been second in all her runs this year at allowance level though did manage to be graded placed as a 2yo. Her form is not obviously progressive and if she cannot win allowance races it would be rather surprising if she can turn up her and make a major impact.

TEA AND BISCUITS (IRE) TEOFILO x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x KINGMAMBO

This guy’s sire ahs his first 3yo’s this year and already has a grade 1 winner who has a chance of sorts in the 2,000
in real life on Saturday. Though if what I have heard is true it is a one horse race. This fellow is bred to e a top class miler as both ds and dds were classic horses over this trip and sire was unbeaten champion 2yo in England and Ireland. So fingers crossed she goes well. She won her first two then ran well in a graded race over this trip before finding her stamina stretched next time. The filly has had a decent break to get over that run so should come here fresh. She has a nice progressive profile as well and looks the type to improve in time. The issue is will she improve enough today fingers crossed she does and it would be no surprise to see her in the first three.

MALYDAR (KY) MALIBU MOON x BROAD BRUSH x ALYDAR

So Galileo and Dansili two of the top 5 sires in the world and turf sires manage zero runners between them and a sire that is inferior on turf to Multiplex gets two runners. Ok in this case it is down to the sim ratings system, my personal view is that dirt and turf points should only be awarded on the surface actually run on, hopefully that will be so in the new improved sim. This is a decent filly on dirt and if the race was on dirt she would have a very good chance. From the point of view of breeding and pedigrees it is hoped that is not the case.

ROCK SNOZ (AUS) FASTNET ROCK (AUS) x COZZENE x INDIAN CHARLIE

This horse’s sire is absolutely on fire at present. He is now has the highest fee of any sire in Australia and right so and has also proved popular as a shuttle sire as well. It would be no surprise to see his stock grow even higher when they hit the track. As it is it will be amazing if he does not get a massive boost to the sim top 10 next year. He is miles better than a sire Mike claimed was a superstar even last year and this year he has made that gap even greater. It is nice to see him get a runner here. The issue is her form no win since September and speed figures around 15-20 digits below what is required to win and a lack of stake class all seem to add up to one thing. She looks well out of her depth here.

SIDON (IRE) EXCELLENT ART (GB) x ZABEEL (NZ) x GRAND LODGE (IRE)

This filly at least has a decent turf pedigree. I was talking about her dam sire last week and his class and on cue he throws up two grade 1 winners a dam sire at the weekend. This filly ran well last time when dropped to sprinting after being well beaten in a classic trial. That was her first 90+ speed figure and it appears sprinting is her game. She has to be considered a massive outsider here.

SISTEMA (KY) PULPIT x STORM CAT x DANZIG

Pulpit has done well as a sire in America and is a decent animal though getting old now. He get’ a fair number of graded stakes runners on turf, though his record in Europe again is not great. He did manage one grade 3 winner in a sprint in Germany and this cross was one of his listed winners in a listed race in Bordeaux (not exactly exciting stuff). This horse has won run on turf and ran a decent speed figure though was beaten in an allowance race. The filly has been well beaten twice since. She has a lot to prove in terms of class and trip and you have to think will be out with the washing.

ELITE ROCK (IRE) ROCK OF GIBRALTAR (IRE) x STORM CAT x DEPUTY MINISTER (CAN)

Rock Of Gibraltar had a very good year last year in terms of graded winners worldwide reaching double figures. A year in Japan was not really a help to him long term. He is no superstar of a sire but very reliable much better than Pulpit though but no surprise to see that Pulpit has a much better record. This is a decent filly though I am not sure coming back of two weeks rest is going to enhance her chances. I had a colt win the other trial on the same day she ran and he was never in consideration to run this weekend. She did not stay 9f but other than that has been very consistent without breaking the 100 speed figure barrier. If the two weeks rest is not a major issue she can make the frame.

CHEF SAVARIN (AUS) SEBRING (AUS) x EMPIRE MAKER x KINGMAMBO

I have covered this filly before and she is starting to look very much like a 2yo. She ran a decent speed figure in her last race but was still unplaced after not staying before. That form is not going to be good enough in here and to be honest I cannot really see where the said improvement is going to come from. There are several with better form and a least one far more progressive in nature. It would be a shock if she were to feature here.

As for my selections:-

1 Arc A Comin’
2 Tea And Biscuits
3 Miss Timoshenko