The Chat Pack Discusses Day 2 of Bluegrass Derby Entrants
HR-spinround Welcome to Day 2 of the Bluegrass Derby Preview
HR-spinround Returning panelists are donny beisbol, jetman and spinround. We’re welcoming frankster to the discussions tonight as well
HR-beisbol: welcome Frank
HR-frankster: thanks for having me
HR-jetman: welcome Frank
HR-spinround Frank, last night we discussed the first sixteen entrants for the Bluegrass Derby
HR-spinround Day Two has brought only five new entrants, but some exciting propositions
HR-spinround One of those new entries is our first one to be excluded from the field.
HR-jetman: And what an entry he would have been spin
HR-beisbol: uh-oh
HR-spinround Sorry db, but it doesn’t look like Bohemian Mercury will get his chance on Saturday
HR-beisbol: yes. He was sitting comfortably at #20…
HR-jetman: Was a valient effort
HR-frankster: my internet is actiing up so if i disappear will try and sign back in
HR-jetman: Rangers are not on tonight frank … its okay for you to hang around
HR-beisbol: somebody entered at the last minute… well, maybe it was he last 24 hours or so. Still…
HR-spinround that of course is sim-player Given who entered Gogossos
HR-beisbol: so are you saying it is not a great idea to make your first dirt start in the Derby off a long layoff?
HR-spinround a colt by Monsun x Sadler’s Wells x Sharpen Up
HR-spinround he has an 8-3-2-0 $275,305 record
HR-beisbol: Gogossos aka “GOOSE GOSSAGE”
HR-frankster: will you be linking the horse here spin?
HR-jetman: Aha … i had figured he named that colt while in the middle of a tequila tasting party.
HR-spinround we have not been, I’m not sure if that will translate into the BTB format
HR-beisbol: Mr. Silver purchased a G1 race hoping to earn some points for horses like this, and he just didn’t fire at all
HR-frankster: i just meant for opinons?
HR-frankster: or am i missing something here?
HR-jetman: hang on frank
HR-beisbol: Then he comes out and runs a firecracker in the Corkscrew
HR-jetman: http://derbyfever.com/hr/runtime/nrbrace.asp?race=5037.0315
HR-jetman: there is a link to the field
HR-spinround he’s currently listed at #18 so chances are iffy that he’ll make the field
HR-beisbol: my question is – which is the real Goose Gossage?
HR-jetman: Nice effort last out, and a solid twelve point speed bump.
HR-beisbol: he reminds me of RAS EL HANOUT in that they are both big closers who have turf pedigrees, head to toe
HR-spinround yes frank, that’s it exactly
HR-jetman: If he makes it in … he could be a wild card. Hard to say exactly what he will do based off the last two runs.
HR-jetman: Two back might have been just the shock of graded compitition for the first time?
HR-beisbol: I’m not fond of going into a G1 on 3 weeks rest, but it is what it is. Given has been pressing for a Derby starter for a while… one of the missing trophies on his crowded mantle.
HR-spinround will this be his first runner then?
HR-jetman: First he has to make the field, but should be live if he gets in.
HR-beisbol: I do believe he has not had a Derby starter. Don’t quote me on that.
HR-spinround That’s a good lesson for new players, there is no easy way to the Derby
HR-spinround Even for the best of veterans
HR-jetman: Given has had two prior Derby runners … and has finished 18th & 19th respectively
HR-frankster: well on the surface, distance should not be an issue with that pedigree
HR-beisbol: Yeah, that’s what I said.
HR-beisbol: thanks Jetman.
HR-frankster: let’s all hope this one doesn’t run 20th!
HR-beisbol: I am quite certain how many derby starters MY stables have had…
HR-frankster: if in fact he draws in, especially if i have to sit with Dan at Don Peppes 🙂
HR-spinround That’s what the wine is for Frank 🙂
HR-spinround Bolton Valley finished 2nd in that G-1 that was bid for Gogossos
HR-spinround Last year’s 2yo Champion also passed the entry box today
HR-spinround A colt by Belong to Me x Mr. Prospector x What Luck 12-6-3-0 $2,111,540 record owned by Dundey8
HR-jetman: Bolton Valley … my goodness what a two year old campaign.
HR-beisbol: Fun fact: Bolton Valley is the 9th of 10 foals from 16yo Luck Sliding, who was unplaced in one start!
HR-jetman: Wowsers
HR-spinround her first foal was a graded winning sprinter
HR-spinround by Waquoit
HR-jetman: god bless you ….
HR-beisbol: older brother LUCK BELONGS (Brahms) just ran a 120 SP going a mile
HR-jetman: oh I am sorry .. i thought you sneezed
HR-beisbol: clearly this is a fast family, but the obvious question is the 10 panels
HR-frankster: in the corkscrew, GOGOSSOS(GER) simply had too much ground to cover late and too his credit picked up 9 lenghts only to fall 3/4 lenght short which was a hellava run!
HR-spinround What’s also interesting about the family is that they are all by modest sires.
HR-beisbol: my guess is that his brilliance is not going to carry that last 1/16th of a mile… too many horses getting good at the right time in here
HR-beisbol: but I would LOVE to have this horse, and gotta think he’s a Preakness contender if he runs back
HR-spinround Belong To Me is not particularly popular in the sim, although he has sired several graded winners
HR-jetman: I understand what your saying donny, but i might have to throw a small win bet on him. He was the first horse to beat Major Alex accross the finish line.
HR-beisbol: I see. So in your eyes, he might be Affirmed to your Alydar
HR-spinround You know he has not won this year (yet) but I don’t think he’s run a particularly bad race
HR-frankster: 10f may be a bit out of reach for bolton valley IMO
HR-spinround He was on the lead in his first start, a position he’s not comfortable with
HR-beisbol: my concern isn’t the losses, its that his lifetime best SP occurred in December. That tells me he might be the SIM’s version of Uncle Mo
HR-spinround He did run a 100 going 9.5f two back
HR-jetman: I like his run in the Winter Is Coming …. I like his class …. I like his chances.
HR-beisbol: I do think the last race is an anomaly. He had absolutely nothing to gain by running hard in there… was going to make the field anyway. So that makes him a sneaky betting proposition…. but it’s still 10f
HR-spinround In his last race he was beaten 8 lengths by Letmegocrazyonu who really freaked in the California Derby
HR-jetman: Its that polly super grip track
HR-frankster: BTM x MR P doesn’t scream 10f
HR-spinround Letmegocrazyonu also arrived in the Kentucky stables today
HR-jetman: Frank loves California racing
HR-spinround He’s by Eskendereya x Seeking the Gold x Nijinsky II And has an 8-4-3-0 $888,165 record owned by Pointblank
HR-beisbol: dangerous looking horse
HR-frankster: was that necessary, showing me an ESKY in the derby! 🙁
HR-jetman: Very dangerous I agree
HR-spinround Sorry Frank, this was one of our last Lock Race winner that is expected to enter
HR-beisbol: lightly raced this year… had 9 weeks off entering the Winter Is Coming
HR-beisbol: and he runs 2nd with a jockey who is 0 for 27 on the year
HR-jetman: First foal from graded winning mare Sim Fanatic
HR-frankster: fully realize spin, just a sore spot after Eskidoro bounced in the Wood 🙂
HR-spinround She won 5 races at 10f and two stakes at 9.5f including a g-3
HR-spinround So if Letmegocrazyonu inherits her stamina the distance should be no problem
HR-beisbol: trainer gives him 7 weeks off and he crushes the Cal Derby
HR-beisbol: lifetime best 106 SP
HR-jetman: Great observation donny … I don’t believe he needs to worry about a bounce either. The big number comes with a slight drop in distance, and could be looking to uncork an even bigger race this weekend.
HR-spinround I believe that is the best last-out SP of any of our current entries
HR-frankster: however, my derby prospect popped a 106 sp off 2 month layoff and bounced in his next start.
HR-frankster: so would not completely rule out a bounce
HR-beisbol: yeah I am not a “bounce” guy but that is what jumps out here…. 9-7-4 ‘weeks rest’ pattern
HR-beisbol: otherwise this is a horse who should cause the other 19 trainers to stock up on Depends undergarments for the weekend
HR-jetman: Thanks for the tip frank … i believe yours was out of Eskendereya as well correct?
HR-frankster: yes mike!
HR-frankster: can you link that horse mike?
HR-jetman: Which frank
HR-frankster: the esky
HR-spinround http://derbyfever.com/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=193467
HR-frankster: ty spinny
HR-jetman: lol
HR-spinround The California Derby was his first stakes win of any kind
HR-spinround He had run second in his two previous tries, both at the G-1 level
HR-frankster: wow very similar to mine wherein they both progressed over first eight career starts
HR-jetman: two placings in Group one races though … he has shown the class.
HR-beisbol: I love the way this horse is progressing, but it does strike me as one who has license to sit this one out and rebound next time
HR-spinround Finishing 2nd in the Cal Derby was Immensely who got high marks in yesterday’s discussion
HR-frankster: http://remotepanel.com/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hid=4484 look at the similar increase in SPs over first 8 races!
HR-beisbol: also, it seems “Crazy” has made an inordinate number of starts in California. Besides infuriating Frankster, that introduces another minor variable.
HR-spinround Our last Day 2 entrant is Too Many Questions
HR-beisbol: if O. Brim is aboard, go to the windows!
HR-spinround By Discreetly Mine x Capote x Carson City With a 10-4-0-2 $751,500 record owned by Flagdown
HR-spinround And there are a lot of questions surrounding this colt
HR-frankster: post link please
HR-spinround http://derbyfever.com/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=90431
HR-frankster: ty my dear
HR-jetman: you have to pardon frank … he is old
HR-spinround Certainly whether a son of the speedy Discreetly Mine can go 10f is a big question, but of more concern is that he has never popped a triple digit speed
HR-jetman: Too Many Questions was wildly successful two year old
HR-beisbol: one could argue that he hasn’t been pushed in 2012, only 2 starts!
HR-frankster: yes but well rested going in the derby which would be only his 3rd start as 3 yo
HR-jetman: I was just going to say that donny, he has had the entry points for some time now.
HR-beisbol: he kind of ran evenly for 3rd in the Florida Derby, just enough or all out?
HR-jetman: Reminds me in part of the real world Sabrecat, just kind of coasting along, trying to peak come derby day.
HR-frankster: IMO, pedigree would suggest distance question but he could also be sitting on this trip digit SP next time out!
HR-jetman: Whether that plan works for either real horse or sim horse is to be seen.
HR-beisbol: I suppose if he found himself on the lead at the eighth pole he’d be dangerous, but I can’t see him passing anyone down the stretch.
HR-spinround I just have a hard time looking past his pedigree. I’m surprised he won at a mile and a sixteenth
HR-frankster: another concern would be his only start in KY was his worst
HR-jetman: We have seen a number of our entraints pop 10 point speed jumps …. it is possible that Too Many Questions is waiting to pop his.
HR-beisbol: I’ll put him in the Bolton Valley category. The fact that he ran a 95 in October, and only reached a 99 this year, makes me think he’s peaked already.
HR-jetman: Or maybe needs less ground?
HR-beisbol: Needless to say, he’s aptly named for the big race.
HR-spinround I’d love to see what he’d do at 7f for sure
HR-frankster: on the surface, I would think 7f
HR-frankster: lol spin
HR-frankster: we were typing same thoughts at same time
HR-jetman: Wonderfull horse though, with two Grade One and a Grade Two victory under his belt
HR-beisbol: you two might be the same person, for all I know…
HR-spinround So that wraps up our Day 2 entrants.
HR-spinround Frank what are you looking for from a Bluegrass Derby winner?
HR-frankster: a horse on the rise peaking at the right time and appears to be sitting on big race
HR-beisbol: 15-1 I think :))
HR-frankster: and the pedigree behind it
HR-spinround We spent a lot of time discussing the filly Street Etiquette yesterday
HR-spinround She would certainly fit your profile
HR-jetman: Can your money back the filly this weekend Frank?
HR-frankster: i was just looking at that filly!
HR-spinround She’s an eye-catching thing of beauty
HR-frankster: yes spin, but there is only one filly close to my heart! 🙂
HR-frankster: need I say whom? 🙂
HR-spinround Lol
HR-beisbol: has the SIM weatherman ever been wrong? We haven’t discussed track condition, but Simulated Willard Scott says 0% chance of rain
HR-spinround But feel free to add any further comments
HR-frankster: immensely could be sitting on big race
HR-beisbol: Frank will find a way to clone her
HR-frankster: not a cloner donny
HR-jetman: There have been past allogations leveled at Frank regarding his cloning practices.
HR-frankster: utter nonsense
HR-beisbol: Frank-enstein horses, perhaps?
HR-jetman: I just am reporting the news Frank, that is still pending a court date i believe?
HR-beisbol: The heart of Ruffian, the lungs of Lady’s Secret, the determination of Winning Colors
HR-frankster: that’ll work :))
HR-frankster: in this game, people like to go with a pedigree that seems to produce…..as the saying goes, dice has no memory
HR-jetman: I must say the next 20 hours or so will be mighty interesting. How many late arrivers will we see, and who on the bubble can squeeze in?
HR-spinround jet you must be on pins and needles
HR-jetman: I stated earlier when speaking to kingman (owner of Stevieboy) that i was not “sweating it”. Let it be said i am now “sweating it”
HR-spinround lol
HR-jetman: I eagerly await that.
HR-beisbol hands out the Depends
HR-frankster: Mike, do you think MA can get 10f?
HR-jetman: I actually do Frank, though i admit i am one of the few who does.
HR-frankster: well being a bud, wish you the best of luck. When the derby has passed, pressume you will give MA a turf run
HR-beisbol: take us though the expected scene at the Jetman house on Saturday morning…
HR-jetman: Well, first to answer donny, Saturday morning will see me trying to find a way to get the wife to leave. I will hand her some plastic and say “have it at darlin”
HR-jetman: My son Alex and I will then stress over it until the race is run.
HR-jetman: I might have to start drinking early that day, however he still has not locked up a starting spot.
HR-jetman: He will eventually be given a try on the turf to answer Frank.
HR-jetman: Possibly as soon as this week should he fail to make the Derby field
HR-beisbol: so you’ve basically got two different wash out moments… Wednesday at 6pm and Saturday at noon
HR-frankster: would be my plan mike, turf mile run
HR-beisbol: i hope you get in the race and shock the world!
HR-jetman: It is what it is donny. I feel i have to take my shot, as it has been shown repeatedly that reaching the derby is nearly impossible. I do feel he has the class, and ability though.
HR-beisbol: you’ll give Frank and I credit, right?
HR-jetman: If Major Alex makes it in and wins I will give everyone credit should they want it!
HR-spinround Well I think the three of us will be rooting hard for you, along with all the other chat room regulars
HR-jetman: That was in no way a suggestion i would pay bribes
HR-beisbol: yes, credit(s)
HR-beisbol: 5000 a pop seems fair
HR-frankster: if i may be candid, what concerns me is that his 3 yo debut in the Scam, not only did he not improve in SP going 9f, he lost to 3 horses that aren’t in the derby picture and subsequently regressed in his following start
HR-frankster: lol donny
HR-jetman: Frank you have to be candid to be part of the panel, and i repsect your opinion.
HR-frankster: understood and i need to be objective
HR-beisbol: yeah Frank, what’s that like?
HR-frankster: but also realize, it’s a DREAM to even have a derby runner!
HR-frankster: so let’s take things one at a time and hope he draws in!
HR-jetman: Thats the first step … has to get there before the conversation has merit.
HR-frankster: and you have to be in it to win it!
HR-beisbol: if someone offered you… something… in order to scratch, would you do it?
HR-jetman: Would I? No i would not.
HR-beisbol: hypothetically speaking, of course
HR-beisbol: it’s ok, nobody is going to read this :))
HR-jetman: Unless it was to get in that beast Boheniam Mercury …. then we might have to wheel and deal
HR-beisbol: haha
HR-beisbol: I think he’d get beat 40 lengths at least
HR-jetman: you don’t have to include this, but Major Alex’s older sister, Multi-Grade 1 winner mare Union Jack Flyer is a grade one placed at 10 furlongs.
HR-beisbol: it’s still fun to say I entered the Derby and got bumped by Given
HR-jetman: lol
HR-frankster: donny has me thinking now :))
HR-frankster: scratch payoffs! :))
HR-jetman: lol
HR-beisbol: that’s right.
HR-frankster: eskidoro has 56 stakes points, i could perhaps payoff 3 people and sneak it :))
HR-frankster: but i will learn from it this year
HR-spinround Well tomorrow we will conclude our series when the full field is drawn.
HR-spinround Final analysis and selections are forthcoming