Spotlight Race-Montana

The Spotlight has been dimmed for a little while as I’ve been assigned to cover a few stake races but have found time to turn the light back on.  This week, it is illuminating the Montana racetrack.  We will be looking at the fifth race on the card, a turf race open to all horse 3 and up.  There is a pretty small purse of $2,900 as this is a claiming race with a tag of $5,000.   The females have opted to stay out of this race, so the boys will go at it running a distance of a mile and three sixteenths.  The race is also restricted to non-winners of 2 races lifetime.

1.   Mohican Warrior   14-1

Four year old who has had no luck.  Primarily been running on dirt and switched to grass with a promising speed of 70 in mid-February.   Has been on sideline for over  a month and the rest could yield some improvement.

2.  Black Sea Pearl   1-1

Heavy favorite who is capable of hitting speeds in the 90’s.  Finished third two back with a speed of 88.   Has one race this year, back in early January finishing well back eighth.   Makes return after a three month break and may be a bit rusty.

3.  English Noir    5-2

Best speeds seem to be coming at the 8 to 9 furlong distance.  After racing a pair of longer distance races drops back to a more compatible distance.  Looks to be a factor in this event.

4.  Jens Lemon Tyme   11-1

After some fair efforts on the dirt with speeds in mid-60’s this guy will try the turf for the first time.  He’s been racing straight claimers as well as NW4L, mostly to find small fields to compete with, but looked to be outclassed in those races.  NW2L should be a better suit and at these odds, maybe worth a wager.

5.  Itsnotunusual        15-1

Broke maiden mid-January with speed of 72 going 7.5 furlongs.    Has shown late speed in past, but not always consistent and if decides to show it this time, the extra  distance should  be helpful.   On board five of six grass races but speed is an issue as most of these were mid 60’s or lower.  Top jockey chose to take ride with this one, which could mean something.

6.  Appealing Band    17-1

Last four starts were mixture of dirt & grass with speeds below 60 each race.  Hasn’t been on board since breaking maiden in December, 2010.   Has tried grass seven times and has yet to hit board.  Very hard to get excited about.

7.  Lichtenburg   7-1

Broke maiden in January with speed of 75 running mile.  Followed that with a second and career best speed of 80, missing by a mere nose.    Speeds have dropped below 70 over last three races, all at mile, as he has been racing every 2 to 3 weeks.   Passing on this one  as aggressive race schedule looks to be impact recent  results, otherwise would have given him a shot.

8.  All Eyez On Me    7-1

Impressive win in last at mile with speed of 83 rolling away by over two lengths at 10-1.   Has been on the board three times in five grass races.  Will be running a bit further here and any effort that is close to the last race could result in another trip to the winner’s circle.

While the favorite is a capable horse, I think he will need this race to get back into form.   With that said, I believe there is some potential value in wagering on this race.   My top pick is to All Eyez On Me who could put in another big race.

English Noir drops in distance and should put in a much better effort with an honest shot at the winner’s circle, my second pick.

Jens Lemon Tyme goes grass for first time and could be the surprise factor, in a big way too, getting my third choice.