Clash Of The Titans: Big Five Headline Breeders’ Bowl Turf

1 ½ miles.  $2,000,000 in purse money.  The strongest field ever assembled for a race over the lawn.  On a card featuring the best runners from every division, and $15,000,000 in purse money, there’s little question what the most anticipated race this weekend will be.  The Breeders’ Bowl Turf, the one everyone has been talking about since, well, this time last year. 

The Big Five

The Defending Champion: Sunnybank Memorial

Pedigree: A.P. Indy x Sadler’s Wells

Season Record (Divisional Ranking): 9: 7-2-0 (1)

What’s the buzz: 

Generally regarded as the best turf horse in the world right now, Sunnybank Memorial strode out to a facile victory in this race last year, and this race will mark his 17^th consecutive start in a G1 race.  He’s riding a three race win streak, including a victory in the G1 Sword Swallower, where his late kick through the stretch motored him home an easy 2 ½ length winner over rival Allied Assault.  Jockey N. Lawton is perhaps best qualified to judge which of the two is a better horse: he rode Allied Assault in the Sword Dancer, and then was hoisted onto the back of Sunnybank Memorial in the Man Of War Stakes (G1), and he was careful but clear with his commentary: “Obviously, this is splitting hairs… They’re both remarkable runners; I’m sure that either one, in any other generation, would be flying high and the undisputed divisional leader, but if you have to compare the two…I’m hoping I get the call on Sunnybank Memorial in the Breeders’ Bowl.  You just can’t dispute the head-to-head advantage that he has over Allied Assault.” 

Why he’ll win: This is his fourth straight run over the New York track, so we know he adores the surface.  He owns the head-to-head lead in the rivalry between himself and Allied Assault, and he’s been aimed at this race all season long.  He’ll be at his best, and Sunnybank Memorial at his best may be better than any horse we’ve ever seen.

Why he won’t win: Rain God has his number: he’s only lost twice this season, but both times, its been Rain God who out-finished him.  He needs to find a way to get past that rival to have a shot at winning, but too much of a focus on Rain God could open up the event for one of the other contenders if those two are too wrapped up in each other and lose track of the rest of the field. 

Allied Assault: Can an Old Dog Learn New Tricks?

Pedigree: War Chant x Seattle Slew

Season Record (Divisional Ranking): 7: 4-3-0 (2)

What’s the buzz:

 In his third straight appearance in this event, Allied Assault won two years ago and ran 2^nd to his younger rival Sunnybank Memorial last year.  A horse truly built on the mold of his sire, War Chant, Allied Assault is a refined horse who has bulked up significantly as he’s aged, and though he still seems to be at the top of his game, trainer masterab (aka Kingab) has carefully decreased his workload as his charge has racked up the starts, and pulled a last trick out of his hat this fall, leading into what some think may be this runner’s swan song: after a solid 2^nd in the Sword Swallower, Kingab announced his plans to rest his charge into the Breeders’ Bowl.

He explained his reasoning in a recent interview, along with the expected last-second jitters and second guessing: “I have had a lot of second thoughts on the eleven weeks off that Allied Assault will have had when he goes in the gate for the race. It’s too late to do anything about it now, but I do wonder how he will perform in this most anticipated race. I felt all along though that if I didn’t do something to ‘shake him up’ that he would run well, but that he wouldn’t win.”  He went on to explain the aim of the time off, and wonder what the implications of a Breeders’ Bowl success for his stable star might mean, and whether his methods might be duplicated in the years to come: “This time off certainly should make him do one of two things. Move forward to a great run, or regress with the need of a race. However, what if he runs great? As far as I can remember this is the first time anyone has taken this approach to a classic race.”  That’s a story in itself: the veteran trainer and his aging superstar blazing innovative new trails to glory. 

Why he’ll win: He’s fresh, and the extra rest could give him the little bit extra he needs to get past his rival and stake his claim at the top.  Though he’s technically the betting favorite at 4/1, he’ll be helped by coming into this race in the relative shadow of Sunnybank Memorial, free to run his race without being the main focus of attention. 

Why he won’t win: Despite Kingab’s faith in his charge, he admits that eleven weeks off is an unusual length of time to rest a horse just before the most competitive race of their career.  Most horses coming back from an 11 week layoff need one race or more to round back into peak shape, and it might be too much to ask

In The Shadow Of Superstars: Rain God Looking For Respect

Pedigree: Rainbow Quest x Dynaformer

Season Record (Divisional Ranking): 9: 7-0-1 (3)

What’s The Buzz:

 Often lost in the hype created by the rivalry between the aforementioned duo, Rain God has run as well or better than both of his rivals through the majority of this year, and ranks as the only horse to defeat Sunnybank Memorial this term.  He’s also chased home Bristol Rovers twice, which only tosses the picture of today’s race into an even greater jumble.  When Rain God is on, he’s usually found sitting just off the pace, and more often than not, he gets the first run on the leaders and can hold off the closers as the field moves through the stretch. 

His record doesn’t quite show the straight string of G1 races that his two more glamorous rivals might, but trainer kevoman3 bristles at the suggestion that this horse is a player at anything less than the highest level in the division: “The main thing I want from this race for this horse is respect! Every time I read about this division it’s Sunnybank Memorial this and Allied Assault that, and now with Horseshoe Bay achieving what he’s achieved, Rain God has kind of taken a back seat in most players minds.  I respect what every horse in this race has achieved but I fear nothing  – the horse has been trained specifically for the race and if he is beaten, the winner will know he’s had to fight tooth and claw to get past him.”

Rain God also ranks as the one major contender with a chance to steal the race near the front end: if he gets away with a dawdling pace, the closing kick of his four major rivals may be for naught if they’re left with too much to do through the stretch. 

Why He’ll Win: A four race winning streak and a 2: 2-0-0 head to head record against Sunnybank Memorial this year are compelling arguments.  His running style is an added advantage, and he’ll be a tough customer today. 

Why He Won’t: Bristol Rovers has beaten him twice, and there are horses in the race that are going to see to it that the pace isn’t soft: he’ll receive a major class test today, and may find the four-pronged attack of the closers too much to fend off. 

Back In The Highlife: Bristol Rovers Looking To Return To Spotlight

Pedigree: Rahy x Danzig

Season Record (Divisional Ranking): 9: 6-0-1 (9)

What’s The Buzz:

 After handily taking down the Man Of War Stakes (G1) and Classic Turf Stakes (G1) last year, this stocky, blaze-faced son of Rahy marched into the Breeders’ Bowl as a solid second choice behind then-defending champion Allied Assault, but when the gates opened, jockey R. Harzheim needed just three strides to know that something was seriously wrong: pulled up and vanned off the track, it was quickly discovered that Bristol Rovers had strained a tendon.  After intense speculation as to whether the star turfer would be retired or not, owner Swampy opted to train his horse on, with an eye towards vindicating himself in this year’s Breeders’ Bowl. 

           Bristol Rovers hasn’t always looked like the same horse this year as he was last year, where, discounting the Breeders’ Bowl, he won nine of ten starts, including five G1 races, but when the five year old has been right, he’s been difficult to contain and almost impossible to beat, and he flashed racefans everywhere what many think may be a preview of the Breeders’ Bowl when he overcame his usual pre-race anxiety and powered down the Longchamp Stretch to absolutely annihilate the G1 Ark de Triumph, humbling one of his rivals today, Militant.  His speed number in that race puts him just shy of competing with the big three, but he wasn’t pushed, and reports of his run in France are that he was geared down and under a stranglehold for the final eighth of a mile: he should be fit and ready for this one. 

Why He’ll Win: For the same reason that Rain God will lose: If Bristol Rovers is better than Rain God, who is better than Sunnybank Memorial, who in turn is better than Allied Assault (yes, this sentence has turned on its head the popular conception of the pecking order of turf marathoners this season), Bristol Rovers seems to have this field at his mercy.

Why He Won’t: Head-to-head comparisons of who-beat-who are notoriously unreliable in racing, and take note of the fact that one of the times that he’s beaten Rain God, he’s finished 3^rd while Rain God was 4^th.  The speed numbers from his last four races leave a little bit to be desired if he’s to compete with the big ones, and he’s definitely got his work cut out for him. 

Youth Will Be Served: Horseshoe Bay Looks To Make It 3 Straight For The Younger Set

Pedigree: Red Ransom x Woodman

Season Record (Divisional Ranking): 11: 8-2-0 (1, Three Year Old Turf Long Div.)

What’s The Buzz:

 Two years ago, it was the three-year old version of Allied Assault that got his picture taken here, and last year, it was Sunnybank Memorial getting his picture taken as an underclassman.  Here’s the twist: Horseshoe Bay may be a better three year old than either of the aforementioned two were, but is that enough to overcome the added experience that his talented older rivals have on him?  Trainer texasace was guarded in his commentary before the race, preferring instead to enjoy his colt’s accomplishments to date and simply cross his fingers and hope for the best, with all the significant preparation for the big dance already done.  As he watched his diminutive colt churn his way through a final blowout workout for the race earlier in the week, he had this to say: “This little guy has made me so proud, what an incredible thrill he’s given me this year.  Winning the Derby de English was a dream come true…” 

He went on to give a cautious assessment of what it might take for his horse to win in this spot: “I’m really hoping for a strong pace in the Turf Classic.  Hopefully Militant can lead all, till about a furlong out, to help set it up for Horseshoe Bay, Sunnybank Memorial, Allied Assault, and Bristol Rovers.  All of us need a strong pace to run at, and if Rain Gold and Minesweeper are allowed to set a dawdling pace, could kill all of our chances from the back…”

Why He’ll Win: Three year olds historically perform well, and there hasn’t been a better three year old than this one.  Though he’s tiny in comparison to his rivals (he stands slightly under 16 hands and often seems to be lost in the shuffle of bigger rivals), he’s seemingly got an eight-cylinder engine packed into his stocky frame, and when he gets rolling, his turn of foot is unbelievable; he seems to cram two to three strides into the space that other horses take one, and he can sustain his kick for several furlongs.

And In The Other Corner (Longshots, In Post-Position Order)

Dante(GB)

Pedigree: Diesis(GB) x Lyphard

Season Record (Divisional Ranking): 9: 2-3-3 (4)

What’s The Buzz:

            Like Allied Assault, this runner makes his third consecutive appearance in this race, finishing 2^nd two years ago at 24-1 and 5^th last year at 27-1.  Trainer 2ofus, a GR Simster resident, echoing sentiments similar to texasace with Horseshoe Bay, preferred to focus on her own horse coming into the race, rather than how he’d fare with regard to the rest of the field: “My boy is still doing well, despite the mileage, and he’s coming into the race primed for a big effort.  Fontain is back on top, and that’s always a good thing; the two have a lifetime record of 7: 4-2-0.  Whether that effort will be big enough is anyone’s guess.  On the one hand, I don’t think he’s as quite as quick as he was two years ago, but on the other, as this year has progressed, he seems to want 12-13 furlongs more than 16.  Win, lose or draw, it’s been a privilege and a treat to be connected with a horse good enough to make the field for such a race three years in a row.”

            Realistically, his speed numbers leave him just a little bit short of being a real contender here, but at longer odds than he sees here, he’s already proved that he’s capable of springing an upset.

Why He’ll Win: Fontain is a master of riding his own race, and if he can find Dante some clear sailing saving ground and biding his time, he may get lucky and let everyone else focus on the big horses, leaving this one to pick up the pieces late.  Its unlikely, but if he’s going to win, that’s how he’ll have to do it, because he’s not quite good enough to do the dirt work of softening up the big boys on his own and still have enough left to win.

Why He Won’t: He seems to lack the explosive acceleration common to the big horses in this field, and he may be just a few steps slower than he was at his best.  This is easily the most competitive race he’s ever run, and it’s a lot to ask of a six year old warrior.

Title Duke

Pedigree: Bluemoonofalaska x Green Desert

Season Record (Divisional Ranking): 8: 1-1-3 (15)

What’s The Buzz:

            He’s been trying tough company all season, and producing respectable results, but the Breeders’ Bowl has a nasty habit of placing very nice horses in situations where the look like extreme outsiders, and this one needs to move forward significantly off of his third place finish last time out in the Coalminer Cup (G1) if he’s to compete here.  He’s unlikely to have any significant impact on this field, but with only twenty starts, it wouldn’t be inconceivable for him to pull a rabbit out of his hat, now or sometime in the future, and join the divisional elite. 

Why He’ll Win: Despite being a very solid horse, he has very little chance of seriously threatening for the win here.

Why He Won’t: Divisional rankings tend to be remarkably useful after a whole season of racing, and there’s a very, very large gap between the top five and the next ten: While being the 15^th ranked long turf horse in the game means he’s a very talented runner, there are, unfortunately for his chances today, at least a dozen who are currently probably superior to this one, many of whom are lining up today.  Simple class considerations seem to indicate that this one is overmatched. 

Swingshift Sal

Pedigree: Night Shift x Roberto

Season Record (Divisional Ranking): 12: 3-3-1 (12)

What’s The Buzz:

            Coming back on two weeks rest, trainer click readily admits that this horse’s schedule has recently been somewhat curious and unconventional, especially after winning a G1 race over 10 furlongs earlier this year: “After the Smackdown, he ran flat in the Windy City, but returned sharp.  So I ran him back one week later, and that proved to be a mistake, as he returned exhausted and needing a break.  He was ready to go by the time entries came due for the Canada Turf, and so I rolled the dice, because if he couldn’t finish first or second in that race, he wouldn’t have the points to draw into this race.  This is a tough race, but he’s coming into it the right way, and he should give a good account of himself.”

            He’s bred on a very similar pattern to the great Joe Cayenne, onetime lord of the turf, but hasn’t quite attained that level of proficiency over 12 furlongs on the grass.  Having not ever found success over 12 furlongs against any of today’s top contenders, he must be considered an outsider, though his speed figures suggest that on his best day, he’s an outside threat at minor awards here. 

Why He’ll Win: A hard knocking horse who may be due to explode here, he makes his 2^nd start back off of a layoff, traditionally a spot where horses can run abnormally brilliant races.  He’ll need a career effort, but, like most of the longshots in here, if the favorites get preoccupied with each other, this one will willingly pick up the slack and close for a piece of the action through the lane. 

Why He Won’t: Running  back on two weeks rest is a tricky, trick proposition, especially considering how many starts he’s had this year and the fact that when run back on only one week’s rest, he turned in his worst performance of the year.  The loss to Jupiter’s Moons last time out, who ranks a very clear-cut second to Horseshoe Bay as the best three year old turfer over this trip, isn’t encouraging, especially given that Horseshoe Bay has yet to reinforce his form against elders.  Like I’ve mentioned already, the “who-beat-who” method of handicapping is often a disastrous way to pick winners, but it sometimes can give us important clues as to the relative stature of runners, especially when you consider that from a speed figure standpoint, Swingshift Sal’s 105 last time out seems to be his best effort, and it left him 4 lengths short of a horse that is easily several more lengths short of Horseshoe Bay.  Where that puts him in relation to most of the field seems to be directly linked to where Horseshoe Bay fits into the mess of runners at the top.

Militant

Pedigree: Point Given x Blushing Groom(FR)

Season Record (Divisional Ranking):  8: 1-1-3 (10)

What’s The Buzz:

            Already singled out by several trainers as a key to this race, Militant is important here not so much as a realistic shot to upset this field, as it won’t set up very well for him, but the key for setting the race up for the deep closers.  With Revelation II already declared as a loose-on-the-lead shot, when Militant’s connections indicated that they’d be employing a similar strategy, the trainers of the deep closers had to crack a smile: “Militant is probably going to dictate the pace of the race since he runs best when loose on the lead.  I was debating passing this race, but after all the hype, I decided that he deserved a shot.  It seemed that Militant felt the same because he was kicking and squealing just days after his Arc race. Hopefully he runs his best and scores a good placing.”

            While he hasn’t yet shown that he’s capable of withstanding the charge of the big names, he’s finished up well behind them, often as a decisive “best-of-the-rest” type, which may leave  him looking at minor awards today, though he’ll find more pace pressure than he’s used to here.

Why He’ll Win:  If Revelation II misses the break, this hulking son of Point Given will be able to use his long loping style to his best advantage, setting a leisurely pace and keeping something left over for the last half mile, when the closers will turn on the jets.  It’s a given that the closers will finish up faster than this one, so he needs to have a sizeable lead by the time they turn for  home if he’s to have a shot at taking the big prize.

Why He Won’t Win: Revelation II probably won’t miss the break, and there will be no easy leads.  Even if Revelation II does miss it, Rain God will keep him honest. 

Rainbow Moonshell

Pedigree: Rainbow Quest x Sadler’s Wells

Season Record (Divisional Ranking): 12: 4-5-1 (13)

What’s The Buzz:

            Coming off of two solid second place finishes, including a G3 race where he ran Bristol Rovers to ¼ length, but that race seems to be the best he’s capable of.  He was destroyed by Sunnybank Memorial and Allied Assault in the Sword Swallower, beaten 22 ¾ lengths.  This light-framed son of Rainbow Quest could pose as a body double for Rain God (also by Rainbow Quest), though this one has much more chrome on his legs. 

            Jockey K. Ledwith was up for a gallop in the morning late last week, and had this to say when questioned about his ride’s chances in the race: “He’s obviously a timebomb, but when he holds it together before the start, he’s a tough, tough customer, and if he can run to the races he’s run the last two times out, I really believe he can compete with this group.”

Why He’ll Win:  He’s been the bridesmaid the last two times out, and he might be due for a big one.  If he keeps his composure, and runs the race of his life, he’ll try to shadow the big guns through the stretch and hope that he can outgame to the finish.  It’s a longshot to play out like that, but hey, that’s why he’s a longshot (15/1).

Why He Won’t: The above scenario is very unlikely, and if it comes down to whose quicker over the final 2 furlongs, Rainbow Moonshell or any of the “Big Five,” it’ll probably go to the favorites.

Minesweeper

Pedigree: Mineshaft x Boston Harbor

Season Record (Division Ranking): 11: 4-2-3 (4, Three Year Old Turf Long Div.)

What’s The Buzz:

            We all heard the story.  Top three year old turf colt tries out older competition for the first time, only the version that everyone knows has Horseshoe Bay looking more ordinary than extraordinary while being outrun by his older rivals.  The racing public seems willing to forgive him that effort, but they haven’t yet seized on the face that the race wasn’t won by an older rival, it was won by the three year old Minesweeper, who at the time was regarded as no better than the third or fourth best three year old 12-furlong horse by virtue of his Big Red triumph in August.  Certainly, trainer songcycle wasn’t pleased to see Horseshoe Bay winding up in his horse’s prep race, and he explained in a recent interview: “I knew his only shot at the BB Turf was to win a Grade One so I picked the easiest of the three major preps to avoid as many good horses as possible.  When Horseshoe Bay scratched in I was not happy, but ‘Sweeper proved that his Big Red triumph was no fluke and won handily.”

            So, while Horseshoe Bay still is feeling the glare of the spotlight, Minesweeper has been going through his preparations in relative anonymity, and looks to catch this field off guard.  He should shadow Rain God in the early going, as he loves to stalk the pace, and he figures to be the first horse to take a serious run at the leaders, and if he can repeat his last race, he can beat this field at long odds.

Why He’ll Win: If you believe that the three year olds are on par with the older horses, Minesweeper is the only one of them in this field that has proven that he can beat them.  He’s done it once, and as a young horse, it not inconceivably that he can step forward and take the extra step needed to beat these.

Why He Won’t: Almost nobody truly believes that the last race is representative of Horseshoe Bay, and almost nobody truly believes that Minesweeper is the best three year old in the race.  He’ll have a difficult enough time beating his contemporary, much less the terrors talked about above.

Hey Zeus

Pedigree: Sadler’s Wells x Gone West

Season Record (Division Ranking): 12: 4-2-1 (7)

What’s The Buzz:

            Trainer foxon certainly had more than a few eyes on him this week as entries came due for the Breeders’ Bowl, as this flashy son of Sadler’s Wells had been rumored to be on the fence for the big dance, but when push came to shove, it was as most people figured: Hey Zeus is in, and it’s a good thing, for no Breeders’ Bowl Turf race would be complete without a son of top stallion Sadler’s Wells in the starting gate.  Foxon explained his decision to run his charge: “I’ve decided to let Hey Zeus take his chance in the race. He’s had a very frustrating season in 2005, topped off with his worst performance in a while last time out in the Coalminer Cup. Prior to that race, he had been running consistently well speed-wise, but never quite well enough to beat some of the fantastic horses in this division.  So I send him to his place in the Breeders Bowl because I think he’s earned it; I don’t go with any great hopes of winning it, but I’d like to see him closing fast at the wire and maybe picking up a small amount of purse money for his efforts. Conditions will be perfect – a firm track and a short break after his last run which will suit him well.

            While his Coalminer run was atrocious, every horse has their off days, and he seems to have bounced back from that run in fine fettle, nearly running off with his exercise boy several mornings ago; he’s been on his toes these last two weeks, and this dark brown, nearly jet black horse has been a handful for his connections.  He should be back in form on Saturday, but he’s got a tough assignment.

Why He’ll Win: He’ll be closing hard, like many in this field, and if he finds the right holes through traffic, a dream trip could get him to the line first. 

Why He Won’t: If he has anything less than a dream trip, he can’t outfinish the big horses.

A Rub Of Irish

Pedigree: Rubloff x Four Seasons(GB)

Season Record (Division Ranking): 9: 2-5-1 (7)

What’s The Buzz:

            He’s sent he rear end of many of his opponents today, and while he always is in the running, he rarely is in the winner’s circle.  A hard knocker, but hard knockers of this sort often find themselves running towards the back of Breeders’ Cup fields when all those horses that get it done with more regularity converge in one place.  That accounts for his long odds, as he seems to be solidly in the 2^nd tier of older turf runners. 

            He also may like a little bit longer, though he does own a G1 win over 12 furlongs, but he should be sitting just off of Rain God and Minesweeper, somewhere midpack, but he may find that he’s not able to keep pace when those two and the classy closers behind him are set loose. 

Why He’ll Win: He could run the race of his life, get a dream trip, and hope for some racing luck (similar to Hey Zeus).

The Analysis

Look for Revelation II and Militant on the lead, with Minesweeper and Rain God behind that.  Following those four, you’ll find Dante, Sunnybank Memorial, Swingshift Sal, Bristol Rovers, Rainbow Moonshell, and A Rub Of Irish, while Allied Assault, Title Duke, Hey Zeus, and Horseshoe Bay run near the back early. 

            Near the six furlong mark, look for Revelation and Militant to come under heavy pressure from Minesweeper and Rain God, while the deep closers will start to rev up.  The mid-pack runners likely will wait another quarter mile and attempt to pick up the deep closers as they go by, and turning for home, look for a cavalry charge.  Rain God or Minesweeper should have hit the lead by that point, as Revelation II and Militant are likely to cook each other, and Sunnybank Memorial, Bristol Rovers, and possible Hey Zeus should be breathing down their necks, while Allied Assault and Horseshoe Bay will still have some work to do as the field hits the top of the stretch. 

            From there, the picture gets messy: if the answer was clear, the race wouldn’t be the most anticipated race of the year, but for this writer’s money, look for Sunnybank Memorial and Rain God to fight it out for top money, with Minesweeper and Allied Assault tossing a coin for third money.  Horseshoe Bay may be feeling the effects of a difficult campaign, while Bristol Rovers may be a year past his best and unable to match the kick of the top few when it comes to crunch time. 

            The race promises to be an epic battle, one that should go down in history as perhaps the strongest field ever assembled, and the racing world has settled in to watch the Clash of the Titans.