Florida Derby

Continuing down the road of Bluegrass Derby Lock Preps, this weekend we find ourselves in Florida for the feature race on Saturday’s card, which will be the Florida Derby (G1) at a mile and one-eighth on the dirt. Perhaps the most famous race in the state, the total prize purse for the race is $1,500,000. With clear skies on the horizon for this year’s running, we will be looking at a full field of fourteen runners that will be seeking out a sport in this most prestigious three-year-old race later this year. Let’s take a look at our fourteen contenders that are going to the gate for this Saturday’s race. 

1. Nhill Neante – cuprunners – A. Jolly – 10/1 

With connections hoping the colt makes a comeback after his most recent start, the son of Tapit is looking to make his first graded win a big one with his start this weekend. The light gray colt has finished off the board only once in the seven starts he has made to date. His most recent start came last month here in Florida during the Fountain Of Ute (G2) at a mile and one-eighth. The colt was held back at the start in ninth early but started moving backwards midway through the race to finish eleventh, seven lengths off the pace while setting a speed figure of ninety-four. This was a regression from his prior start across the country in California during the Movieland Futurity (G1) at a mile and one-sixteenth. The colt was still off the pace early here, also in ninth out of the gate. But at the midway point of the race the colt would dig in to make a strong closing run, coming up just short in second while setting a lifetime best speed figure of one hundred two. The colt had his most recent win in November of his two-year-old season during a listed stakes race at a mile. He was placed closer to the front in this race in sixth early. Started to advance at the midway point and would win by a length. 

2. Rich Baby Daddy – beerkeg6 – T. O’Conner – 9/1 

The first of two geldings in the race, the chestnut is sired by Curlin and will be taking a step up in class for this race, making his first graded start this Saturday. Despite this, the colt has nine career starts under his belt, equaling only two other horses in the race, making him one of the more experienced runners in the field. His most recent start came late last month over eight and a half furlongs in a listed stakes race in Arkansas. Out of the gate he stayed just behind the front runners in a stalking fourth place position. He would make a late run down the stretch to cross the wire in third, setting a speed figure of one hundred one, which is a lifetime best for the gelding. His most recent win was in November of last year during an allowance race over the same distance in Kentucky. Held further off the pace here in sixth, he would also start making his move earlier in the race before going on to win by one and three-quarter lengths. 

3. El Petejota – haack09 – J. Seldon – 11/1 

The first of three horses to be sired by Into Mischief, the bay colt is seeking out his first graded win after one attempt at graded company to date. His most recent start came across the country in California during The Scam (G3) at a mile and one-eighth last month. He was well off the pace in the race, twelfth out of the gate. He didn’t make a run until the stretch where he would cross the wire in third, setting a speed figure of ninety-nine, which is a lifetime best for the colt. His most recent win came in his prior start, which was in an allowance race the month before in Canada over the same distance. The colt was out of the gate much closer to the pace in this race, fourth early. He would make a bid to challenge the other runners at the midway point and would win the race going away by seven and three-quarter lengths.  

4. Little Amusement – epicenter – N. Lawton – 12/1 

By top sire Into Mischief, this bay colt is out of a graded placed dam who has produced two graded stakes winners, one of them being this colt. His most recent start came last month during the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at a mile and one-sixteenth. The colt was held back at the start of the race, settling into ninth out of the gate. He would get right to challenging other horses early but didn’t show much of a closing kick in the race as he coasted to a sixth-place finish, setting a speed figure of one hundred, which was a lifetime best for the colt. Prior to this the colt would finish off his two-year-old season with a third-place finish in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile (G1) after winning the North Fork Stakes (G1), both over the same distance and across the country in California. His win in the North Fork Stakes (G1) was a narrow one, the colt emerging victorious by a head bob at the wire in a late charge forward as he closed late. 

5. Into Awakenings – given16 – M. Perez – 7/1 

This brown colt will be returning to graded company for the first time since the middle of last year. His most recent start came last month here in Florida during a listed stakes race over eight and a half furlongs. She came out of the gate stalking the front runners early from fourth. The colt never seemed to find his stride in the race and would cross the wire fourth, though just a length and a half off the pace. He would set a speed figure of ninety-nine for the race. His most recent win would come in November of last year during an allowance race in New Jersey over the same distance. He would take the field from gate to wire and win the race by a daylight margin of seven and three-quarter lengths with a lifetime best speed figure of one hundred two. His only other graded start to date was in the Darling Squash Futurity (G3) at a mile last August. After taking the lead right out of the gate, the colt would fade back in the stretch to finish fourth.  

6. Bound To Blame Me – borrowed9 – T. Small – 11/1 

Sired by Blame, the bay colt is coming into this race off of two consecutive wins. The later of his two most recent starts marked the colt’s first graded stakes victory as well as his first triple digit speed figure. His most recent start came here in Florida during the Fountain Of Ute (G2) at a mile and one-eighth. Held well off the pace at the start, the colt was all the way back in eleventh at the break before being asked to make his move midway through the race. He would eventually go on to win in his second graded start by a length and a quarter while setting a speed figure of one hundred two. He finished off his two-year-old season with a win in a listed stakes race over eight and a half furlongs in Ohio prior to this race, winning by a head after coming from far off the pace. His only other graded start came in his prior race, the End Of The Line Futurity (G1) at a mile and one-sixteenth. He again trailed the field early before closing late to get up for fifth. 

7. Strawbs Tribute – warthbeard01 – E. Banner – 13/1 

One of our longshots for the race on Saturday, the bay colt by Union Rags will be making his second graded start with the race this weekend. His most recent start was earlier this month here in Florida during The Buccaneer Derby (G3) at a mile and one-sixteenth. Off the pace early in eighth, the colt didn’t start to make a move to challenge other runners until midway through the race. He would go on to cross the wire in second, setting a speed figure of one hundred two, which is a lifetime best speed figure for the colt. His most recent win came in November of last year during an allowance race over the same distance in Kentucky. Placed a little closer to the pace in fifth out of the gate, he would start to move up at the midway point here as well before going on to win by two and a quarter lengths. 

8. Assirio – trufo – H. Artack – 11/1 

Making his tenth career start this Saturday, the colt is one of the more experienced runners in our weekend’s field. He will be making his second graded start, the most recent coming in his most recent start, The Wall Street (G2) at a mile and one-eighth earlier this week in New York. Held back at the start well off the pace in tenth, the colt wasn’t asked to challenge other runners until reaching the midway point of the race. He would show an impressive turn of foot down the stretch to cross the wire in second while setting a speed figure of ninety-eight earlier this month. His most recent win was in early January during a maiden special weight where the colt would finally break his maiden on his sixth attempt, though he was consistently in the money in his races before then. The colt has finished on the board in seven of his nine career starts, finishing out of the money only once, which was in his career debut last February. 

9. Ladder Of Thirds (AUS) – mogulaxius – C. Orza – 8/1 

By Triple Crown winner Justify, this three-year-old brown colt has never finished off the board and will be making his graded stakes debut this weekend in the Florida Derby (G1). The scratch bred colt is the only horse in Saturday’s field to hail from outside of Kentucky and is out of a broodmare by Forty Niner. Despite being bred in Australia, the colt has never raced outside the United States. The most recent start for the colt came last month during a listed stakes race in Idaho at a mile. Out of the gate in seventh at the break, he would start to make headway midway through the race before going on to cross the wire in second, setting a lifetime best speed figure of one hundred one. The colt’s most recent win was last September during an allowance race in Kentucky over the same distance. More forwardly placed out of the gate in this race, the colt was in second early and took over the pace at the midway point of the race before going on to win by three and three-quarter lengths.  

10. Bold And Strong – asrcurlin2 – A. Craig – 13/1 

One of the race’s other longshots, this chestnut colt will be returning to graded stakes company after a step down in class following a single graded attempt in his two-year-old season. The most recent start for the colt was early last month during a listed stakes race at nine furlongs in Kentucky. Stalking the front runners early out of the gate in fourth, he would start to move forward to challenge at the midway point of the race before narrowly missing the win in a second-place finish where he would come up short by only a head bob at the wire. A speed figure of ninety-nine, a lifetime best, would be set for the race. His prior race, an allowance race in Pennsylvania at eight and a half furlongs in December of last year, would result in a win for the colt by two and a quarter lengths. 

11. Subtle Way – aa – J. Stivers – 12/1 

Looking for his first win of his three-year-old racing season, the son of Gun Runner is already a graded winner in his six career starts. The chestnut colt has won half of these starts. His most recent start came last month across the country in California during The Scam (G3) at a mile and one-eighth. The colt was last out of the gate at the break and wasn’t asked to make his move until late in the race. He would show a good turn of foot in the final furlongs to cross the wire in sixth, setting a speed figure of ninety-seven. This was the colt’s first and only off the board finish to date. His only other graded start came in his prior race during the Club Stakes (G2) in Kentucky at a mile and one-sixteenth in his graded stakes debut. He was well off the pace in this start as well, coming from the very back of the pack to win the race by a quarter of a length as he set a lifetime best speed fgiure of one hundred two. 

12. Goodalwayswins – justiceleague – J. Hornibrook – 8/1 

Making a good showing with the first start of his three-year-old season, the chestnut colt is by Good Magic and is out of a listed stakes winning dam. His most recent start was in January here in Florida during The Good Cow (G3) at a mile. The colt was last out of the gate at fourteenth. He would pick off other horses early on i the race, moving up steadily from the start. He would cross the wire in second, just a length off the eventual winner, while setting a speed figure of one hundred three. This speed figure is a lifetime best for the colt. He would finish out his two-year-old season with a sixth-place finish in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile (G1) at one and one-sixteenths. His most recent win came in September of last year in Illinois during the Darling Squash Futurity (G3), also at a mile. Again, coming from far off the pace at the start, the colt wouldn’t make his move until at the midway point of the race and would go on to win by three-quarters of a length. 

13. Love On – beerkeg8 – P. Campbell – 10/1 

With nine career starts to his name, this light grey is the second gelding of our field for this Saturday. Sired by Tapit, the grey gelding is a speedy type that likes to go to the front in his races. He will be making his third start against graded company this weekend, his most recent attempt, and most recent start, coming last month here in Florida during the Fountain Of Ute (G2) at a mile and one-eighth. The colt went straight to the lead in the race and held it for most of the distance before being caught by a late closing field in the stretch to come home in sixth while setting a speed figure of one hundred, a lifetime best for the gelding. Prior to this the gelding finished second in two consecutive listed stakes races. His most recent win was in September of his two-year-old season during an allowance race at a mile where he took the field from gate to wire to win by a length. His other graded start came in his two-year-old season during the End Of The Line Futurity (G1) at a mile and one-sixteenth in Kentucky where he would cross the wire tenth. 

14. Tapit On Home – stockswami3 – A. Reed – 9/1 

Coming into the race this weekend off of a win here in Florida, the chestnut son of Tapit has made six lifetime starts, winning half of them and finishing on the board in an additional two starts. Out of a graded placed dam, the colt is the first graded winner to be produced from the mare. His most recent start was in late January during The Good Cow (G3) at a mile. Out of the gate the colt would be content with a mid-pack placing of sixth early. He steadily started to move up on the rest of the field fairly early in the race, ultimately winning by a length while setting a speed figure of one hundred five, which was a lifetime best for the colt and one of the highest speed figures recording by a contender going into the gate for the race this weekend. His only other graded start came in October of his two-year-old season during The Nashua Special (G3) at a mile in New York where he finished fourth. 

Flrancho’s Picks: 

Win: Tapit On Home 

Place: Bound To Blame Me 

Show: Subtle Way