G1 John Scott Appreciation

12 Horses chasing a Group1 star, some their 1st, others another to add to their collection

Victoria-AUS (VIC)

Saturday, February 18, 2023 — 2:40:00 PM EST | Race ID : 3012633

John Scott Appreciation Stakes
Grade 1 / Group 1*CPU – Purse : $750,000
Restricted to 4 Year Olds and Older 12 Furlongs | ~2400 Meters | One Mile and a Half

By Darcy “Dingo” McPhee

Finally I have made it back home to the Land of Vegemite and Beer, unfortunately not quite all the way back to my beloved North Queensland. Instead, I find myself back in the City of my birth, Melbourne, Victoria. Which also just so happens to be the joint capital of Australian Thoroughbred Racing (I am being polite with the “joint” comment, as I know how touchy those Sydneyites can be).

 Not wanting to risk life and limb in a Melbourne Taxi, I have arranged for my PA Melissa to fly in from up north for a well deserved break, and to act as my chauffer for the next 4 days. (Now, now don’t you think those naughty thoughts.) Melissa’s family live here and she is staying with them. As a little quid pro quo she is driving me out to Headquarters today and Saturday.

After a long day walking the track with a few of the jockeys, and chewing the fat with trainers strappers and anyone else I consider may be in the know, it is time to settle in and earn my pay. So here is the down low on the 12 horses heading to the Barrier on Saturday afternoon in the Group 1 John Scott Appreciation Stakes over 2400 metres (that’s 12 furlongs for you North Americans).

No.1 FORTY ORDERS

Comes into the race as the 30/1 rank outsider of the field. He showed early promise as a rising 3 year old colt and his early 3 year old starts. Winning his first Grade 3 Race (over 2200 m) following on that 6 weeks later in the Derby de Danish (over 2400 m) where he closed hard and weakened on his run in the last 100m to finish a tiring 3^rd.  However, his 3 runs since have been less than inspiring for trainer “jastables” never getting closer than over 12 lengths at the finish of them.

Would need a huge form turn around to be competitive on Saturday

No. 2 THE JUST KNIGHT

Winner of nearly $1.5 million and 10 of his 21 starts this handsome 5 year old bay Horse gets his chance on Saturday to add to those statistics. Coming off 4 straight runs at Group 1 level, in the the last 5 months of 2022, he has been freshened up for this race. His last start over 2600 m in the Japan Winter Cup he just failed to catch the leader “Known Danger” running 2^nd by a ¼ length. His renowned trainer “given” advised the writer that his horse’s  best win to date was the Group 2 Californian Dawn to Dusk last July over the distance of Saturday’s Race, and that his form on the training track was as good or better than it was back then.

Coming into Saturday’s Race at odds of 7/1 He has recent form on his side and is a definite chance in an open race.

No. 3 FAST VIDAR

He comes into Saturday’s race as one of the 3 horses here that haven’t won beyond allowance class, however unlike the other two he does have the Graded Placed tag next to his name. We managed to catch up to trainer “daniel” as he walked the track with his jockey J Ledwith’s agent. Daniel was quick to acknowledge that he faces a very tough assignment on Saturday, but was just as quick to point out his horse’s recent form. He is coming off a solid 4^th in a Group 3 over 2200 m last start following 3 impressive wins up north in Brisbane. It should also be noted that “Fast Vidar” is out of the award winning mare “Dynawells” a multi Group 1 winner, Hall of Famer, Horse of the Year and Breeders Bowl winner.

Was finishing on well last start and the extra 200 m will suit, but at odds of 20/1 possibly more on race day he will need a lot of luck in running to figure in the finish.

No. 4 TAKAVACHO

The journey taken by this rather small 4yo gelding, has been mapped out almost to perfection by his astute trainer “mano”. Still proudly wearing the colours of the no longer operating Pastures of Green Residency, he has guided his horse to most impressive record of 6 wins and 2 minor placings from his last 8 starts. Starting that run with his maiden win and after 3 allowance wins he won his 5^th race in a row in the Group 2 Hanging Chad in Paris. The further he ran the better he got and 2 starts later he added a Group 1 win in the King Kong Vase to his resume.

Definitely the form horse of the field, with proven ability. Probably deserves to be at shorter odds than the 8/1 currently on offer. Value Bet of the day.

No. 5 MARECHAL DAVOUT

This horse’s form looks very pretty on paper with 4 wins and 7 minor placings from 11 starts, but that is about as good as the news gets for trainer “waremblem5”. Taken to listed stakes level 4 times three times early on in his career for 2 minor placings over 1200 and 1500 m, then his first try around 2 turns in a residency only stakes to be well beaten into a 3^rd place (over 6 lengths back). This ended up in pride being swallowed and a return to the allowance classes where an increase in distance working up to 2400 m resulted in a 2^nd followed by 2 nice wins in NW3L and NW4L class. Back to another residency restricted 2800 m listed stakes he was again well beaten by over 6 lengths but kept his ITM % at 100 after struggling home in 3^rd. Facing true Group 1 class horses on the weekend, even the services of top Spanish hoop Manuel Zeus will not help.

More likely to finish in the bottom 3 than the top 3, his 100% ITM record looks to be lost. 19/1 odds seem unders for a horse whose best result is an allowance NW4L win.

No. 6 RED KORNSNAKE

He is a dual Group 1 winner, those being back to back New York Sword Swallower Stakes (yes that means they were a full year apart in August 2020 and 2021). He did sandwich 2 Group 3 wins between those races though. Now here he is for his 16^th 2400 m race in a row since 2019, trainer “quikvett” seems a little adverse to change even though his horse has failed to win in 18 months since his 2021 Group 1 win. At 7 years old the “Snake” is the oldest horse in the field, and his form seems to be showing that he is nearing the end of his racing career, Saturday’s race could possibly be his last chance to shine before he retires to Stud. A win or even a strong showing couldn’t possibly harm his bluebook value.

Has the old fella got one last run in his old legs, form says doubtful, heart is hopeful. The bookies are certainly not taking any chances by only offering 6/1 in the prepost betting.

No. 7 CONCRETE KING

This aptly named 5 year old gelding is by that fine sire “Bricks and Mortar”, he is coming off 3 listed Stakes runs where he sandwiched a 2^nd between wins. The wins both coming in Residency restricted races, but his times and the ease with which he won, suggested to trainer “trotter1” that it might be time for another tilt at the elusive group win star tag. I say another because back in June last year after a consistent start to 2022, he was given 3 tries to win that Group star. Luck was certainly against “trotter1’s”  with his first try a Swedish Group 3 was turned into a Swedish mushball when a sudden downpour swept the track just 30 minutes before racing began. Then his second attempt he hit the front 200 m from the line, only to be caught in the shadows of the post and went down by a head. The last attempt was at Group 1 level where either he found the class too strong or he was tired from a hectic campaign.

With a schedule based on a no let up 7 week turnaround between races (sometimes even less) his last holiday was over 2 years ago, to recover from his transition from Colt to Gelding, you would think it was time for another break.

His past 2 starts however, have resulted in his fastest SP’s, so he earns that 2^nd try at the STAR! KEEP SAFE at 6/1 not without a concrete chance.

No. 8 HELP THE ORPHANS

Was beaten last start in the Japan Winter Cup by the No. 2 horse “The Just Knight” by 4 lengths, this “lenny271” trained 5 year old gelding meets that same horse on 3kg better terms. I don’t know if that will be enough to turn the tables, but the oddsmakers think so and have installed him a 9/2 equal favourite. His form suggests he must have a great chance here, with a Group 2 win 4 starts back by 4 lengths he went to the line eased down yet still posted an SP just under the magic 120 mark. His 3 runs since then have been solid at Group 1 level, but not anything that stands out. His sole Group 1 victory came almost to the day 12 months ago in the San Francisco Capitan Handicap over the same distance as Saturday’s race.

Has the ability to sit on the leaders and take them in the run home, a STRONG winning chance!

No. 9 YOU HAVE NO CHOICE

The other of our pair of 9/2 joint favourites, comes into the race off the back of winning 3 of his past 5 starts all Group 1’s. His only blemish came in his last start in November where he failed to fire at all in the 2400 m Japan Classic finishing 9^th nearly 10 lengths back. He was sent to the pastures to recover from that run and after a 10 week break is back and from all reports as fit as a Mallee Bull. Trainer “given’s” 2^nd runner in the race and obviously his most favoured, could be the reason he timed a business trip to this fine city to coincide with the races this weekend. Rumour has it that “given” may be accompanying local trainer “magoo2912” to Money Valley races on Friday night. Winning form is good form especially when it comes against class opponents. TOP CHANCE, leave him out of your exotics at your own peril!

No. 10 F NOM DE JEU

One couldn’t say trainer “rubber5” is the most original when it came to name this 5 year old gelding, just tucking the letter “F” in front of his sires name. His homebred horse arrives here as the third horse in the race without a Stakes win to his name, he has 8 tries at Listed Stakes level and has 3 minor placings to his credit, the most recent being a Local Championship Stakes at this track last August where he made a late charge to only go down by a single length, coming from over 10 back at the turn. That was over 2000 m so the extra 400 m should be a plus for him. His best showings have been when he has been let sit cold at the back of the field for a sprint around the pack in the straight. For some reason last start his jockey tried to lead in a 10 furlong allowance which resulted in said jockey being told to leave the stables and never return.

Saturday sees the third of the Ledwith family in the saddle, and you can be sure he will not be making the mistake of trying to lead especially from a wide Barrier. Looks Outclassed, a finish anywhere closer to the front than the back of the field would be a win.

No. 11 CONQUEST DYNASTY

Starting his career on the grass, after 2 starts trainer and breeder “supertaffy”   switched him over to dirt, this met with a short lived instant success of 2 wins. He then tried a listed Stakes to end his 2 year old career and another to start his 3 year old year, both runs were to say the least disappointing. The decision was made to return to the grass, his first start was solid but nothing spectacular, but a definite improvement. Then came 4 wins from 6 races with impressive speed jumps as well, culminating in a very impressive last start 2300 m listed stakes win at this track (his second stakes win) in an SP of 119.7. Saturday sees him take a huge jump in class to Group 1 but for a 13/1 shot there seems to be an air of confidence around the stables.

Not the worst in this field of 12, he is the horse with a big upside, a win on the track last start one of the fastest SP’s of any horse in the Race. MY LONGSHOT OF THE MEETING!

No. 12 BLUEFISH LASAGNE B

He comes into Saturday’s race as the second oldest as a 6 year old gelding, with 9 of his last 10 races all being in this class he certainly has the experience at this level. In that time he has 2 Group 1 wins to his credit, the downside is the last of them was the German Europe Classic about 18 months ago. After a mini form slump trainer “jakematt” made the decision 12 months ago to give him a rest and a snip. Unfortunately, this didn’t have the desired effect with little if any improvement in his Group 1 races. He did however, 2 starts back win the Group 3 Timberland Lodge by a monstrous 6 ¼ lengths over the 2400 m course in Surrey England.

On the strength of that Timberland win he must be given some chance at odds of 9/1. (I have to ask, why that name? I am off my dinner now 😊 )

I am looking forward to enjoying a good day’s racing at HQ (Flemington) on Saturday, with the John Scott Group1 the headline event of the day. It would be nice to refill the piggy bank before heading back north on Monday, so here are my best picks

Value Bet: No. 4 TAKAVACHO – 8/1 Each Way

Longshot: No. 11 CONQUEST DYNASTY 13/1 Each Way (but press the place component)

Exotics: Box Quinella and Trifecta: 2 – 4 – 7 – 9 – 11

In a very open race where it is easier to dismiss 1 or 3 horses than to select 1 or 3 that stand out Good luck and good punting

Darcy “Dingo” MacPhee