Nurefan Turf Filly Sprint – 5F Turf Sprint for 3yo Fillies

Saturday, July 4, 2020 — 1:30:00 PM EST
West Virginia – Open Stakes – Purse : $100,000
5 Furlongs – Firm Turf – Restricted to 3 Year Olds, Fillies Only

Watch Race – 3D Viewer   –   Watch Race – 2D Viewer


HONEYSUCKLE MELLOW is sired by FLOWER ALLEY and is running for the foxhold stable.  HONEYSUCKLE MELLOW has won in 6 times in 9 starts for a 67% win rate and will be ridden by jockey W Bowman (2173 331-376-291 15%) from West Virginia.

12 Month Top Speed: 95 (1)
Kegger’s Projection: Favourite

Post 2 – STRAVINSKY’S STAR – 3/1

STRAVINSKY’S STAR is sired by ELUSIVE STAR and is running for the cocobella6 stable.  STRAVINSKY’S STAR has won in 7 times in 12 starts for a 58% win rate and will be ridden by jockey Be Dixon (385 65-56-52 17%) from West Virginia.

12 Month Top Speed: 91 (4)
Kegger’s Projection: Favourite

Post 3 – SHOWS – 7/2

SHOWS is sired by SHOWCASING (GB) and is running for the whoami1 stable.  SHOWS has won in 2 times in 10 starts for a 20% win rate and will be ridden by jockey M Epps (224 27-30-24 12%) from West Virginia.

12 Month Top Speed: 94 (2)
Kegger’s Projection: Favourite

Post 4 – RELAXITIVE – 5/1

RELAXITIVE is sired by ZOUSTAR (AUS) and is running for the coagulate8 stable.  RELAXITIVE has won in 1 times in 8 starts for a 13% win rate and will be ridden by jockey M Mickson (582 77-70-82 13%) from West Virginia.

12 Month Top Speed: 89 (5)
Kegger’s Projection: Contender

Post 5 – PACHANGA PARTY – 5/2

PACHANGA PARTY is sired by WAR FRONT and is running for the erendirax stable.  PACHANGA PARTY has won in 4 times in 8 starts for a 50% win rate and will be ridden by jockey V Webb (2062 338-321-292 16%) from West Virginia.

12 Month Top Speed: 93 (3)
Kegger’s Projection: Favourite

Kegger’s Pace Projection

PACHANGA PARTY-0.50-0.440.000.00

*Based on average lengths behind leader in winning runs.
*Projected Favourites in Bold
*Projected Long Shots Italicized

HONEYSUCKLE MELLOW and STRAVINSKY’S STAR are projected to lock into a duel from the gates, both having gone wire-to-wire in all career wins. Both are likely ‘need to lead’ runners, however neither have seen much time off the lead to test whether they can handle running off the lead. Both are also coming off stakes wins only a day apart (May 30/31) and will be looking to back it up with another victory. A slight edge for the early lead can be given to HONEYSUCKLE MELLOW for posting higher recent speeds, but few would be surprised if STRAVINSKY’S STAR came away with the holeshot.

RELAXITIVE and PACHANGA PARTY should both be expected to sit just off the lead, with both showing a preference to sit within a half length of the leaders. This should generate an interesting battle from gate to wire as four of the five runners should be within a length (or closer) from wire to wire if they all run at their peak. RELAXITIVE is the longest short of the field, coming off her maiden breaking victory last time out and will need a career best to contend with this field. PACHANGA PARTY on the other hand is coming off two solid stakes runs, the last of which she may have let the leaders get too far ahead (2.25 length) in a 2nd place finish where one of the front runners held on for the win, expect her to keep a tight gap with the leaders to maximize her potential.

SHOWS should have lots of room, as she is the only runner in the field that projects to sit off the pace. She comes in off an allowance win where she kept within 2-3 lengths of the leaders and will be hoping to take advantage of the congestion up front to find her way back to victory.

Kegger’s Predictions


Favourite: PACHANGA PARTY (5/2)

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