Saturday, July 4, 2020 — 1:30:00 PM EST
Brazil – Open Stakes – Purse : $100,000
5.5 Furlongs – Fast Dirt – Restricted to 4 Year Olds and Older

Watch Race – 3D Viewer   –   Watch Race – 2D Viewer

Post 1 – NORNHEIM – 7/2

NORNHEIM is sired by DUBAWI (IRE) and is running for the waremblem4 stable.  NORNHEIM has won in 6 times in 24 starts for a 25% win rate and will be ridden by jockey D Faught (234 33-30-37 14%) from Brazil.

12 Month Top Speed: 107 (2)
Kegger’s Projection: Favourite

Post 2 – RAINBOW ROYALE – 6/1

RAINBOW ROYALE is sired by RAINBOW HEIR and is running for the 375stud stable.  RAINBOW ROYALE has won in 12 times in 19 starts for a 63% win rate and will be ridden by jockey M Chreky (1091 196-180-175 18%) from Brazil.

12 Month Top Speed: 105 (3)
Kegger’s Projection: Contender

Post 3 – ULTIMATE WASH – 7/1

ULTIMATE WASH is sired by WAR FRONT and is running for the harrylancx stable.  ULTIMATE WASH has won in 5 times in 14 starts for a 36% win rate and will be ridden by jockey E Behr (261 35-33-41 13%) from Brazil.

12 Month Top Speed: 103 (5)
Kegger’s Projection: Contender

Post 4 – MAJESTIC MICKEY – 14/1

MAJESTIC MICKEY is sired by MAJESTIC WARRIOR and is running for the supernintendo stable.  MAJESTIC MICKEY has won in 6 times in 15 starts for a 40% win rate and will be ridden by jockey L Estepp (171 14-25-18 8%) from Brazil.

12 Month Top Speed: 100 (7)
Kegger’s Projection: Contender

Post 5 – BK KENTUCKY STAR – 7/1

BK KENTUCKY STAR is sired by ELUSIVE STAR and is running for the cocobella stable.  BK KENTUCKY STAR has won in 3 times in 14 starts for a 21% win rate and will be ridden by jockey C Rivera (299 34-46-46 11%) from Brazil.

12 Month Top Speed: 104 (4)
Kegger’s Projection: Contender

Post 6 – DISTORTED TORNADO – 7/2

DISTORTED TORNADO is sired by DISTORTED HUMOR and is running for the potopein stable.  DISTORTED TORNADO has won in 7 times in 16 starts for a 44% win rate and will be ridden by jockey T Kavanagh (809 152-138-126 19%) from Brazil.

12 Month Top Speed: 111 (1)
Kegger’s Projection: Favourite

Post 7 – SOL EMPOWERED – 8/1

SOL EMPOWERED is sired by FRANKEL (GB) and is running for the amandas stable.  SOL EMPOWERED has won in 5 times in 12 starts for a 42% win rate and will be ridden by jockey D Augustine (246 26-42-33 11%) from Brazil.

12 Month Top Speed: 103 (5)
Kegger’s Projection: Contender

Post 8 – EDESSA – 5/2

EDESSA is sired by TIZNOW and is running for the johnkarczewski23 stable.  EDESSA has won in 10 times in 27 starts for a 37% win rate and will be ridden by jockey J Manriquez (215 26-27-35 12%) from Brazil.

12 Month Top Speed: N/A – No Recent Sprints
Kegger’s Projection: Wild Card Favourite

*EDESSA has been running 8-9F routes, with a 12-month high speed of 106.

Kegger’s Pace Projection

	C1	C2	C3	Fin
MAJESTIC MICKEY	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
EDESSA	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.00
RAINBOW ROYALE	-1.03	-1.40	-0.38	0.00
NORNHEIM	-1.65	-2.25	-0.65	0.00
DISTORTED TORNADO	-2.3	-3.2	-1.3	0.00
SOL EMPOWERED	-2.4	-3.2	-0.85	0.00
ULTIMATE WASH	-2.55	-3.65	-2.00	0.00
BK KENTUCKY STAR	-3.33	-4.83	-2.08	0.00

*Based on average lengths behind leader in winning runs.
*Projected Favourites in Bold
*Projected Long Shots Italicized

MAJESTIC MICKEY and EDESSA are set to battle for the lead out of the gates, I’m going to give MAJESTIC MICKEY the edge here as she’s come out first in almost all but one of her last 13 runs. EDESSA has been used to longer distances and may not be used to the same jump that’s needed to get the holeshot in a sprint, however if we go back to March 2019 EDESSA has shown her ability to fight back after losing the holeshot.

RAINBOW ROYALE will likely be next in pack looking to stalk just off the lead, she has failed to hit the board in three prior stakes attempts, however has put up a dominant allowance record and the eventual jump to stakes success seems not far out of reach.

NORNHEIM is the first of our favourites and is likely to position 2-3 lengths off the leaders as she did three starts ago in her stakes debut where she took the lead by the third check and will be looking to rebound from her last two runs against tough graded fields.

DISTORTED TORNADO, SOL EMPOWERED, and ULTIMATE WASH are likely to form a pack just off the stalkers 3-4 lengths off the lead. DISTORTED TORNADO is the favourite of this group having multiple stakes wins and only finishing off the board in one of five stakes races, also having posted the high speed of the group two races ago. SOL EMPOWERED had put together a solid string of allowance performances before stumbling after her stakes debut in April, just waiting for a bounce back to form. ULTIMATE WASH will be making her 2020 debut after rebounding with an allowance win to close out 2019, she will be hoping to carry that success after a seven month layoff.

BK KENTUCKY STAR appears most likely to drop back early as her strongest outings have been races where she saved her energy for a late push, she started her stakes career finishing on the board in four before struggling in the last two.

Kegger’s Predictions

Favourite: DISTORTED TORNADO (7/2)

Longshot Pick: BK KENTUCKY STAR (7/1)