Race Preview: lool Oaks

Wow! Thought I was done writing about races but here we are. Trapped inside by the coronavirus, broke from a weekend of misfires at the races and boredom has led to the TOP SIM HANDICAPPER previewing this race. That’s right go to the forums and check out the leader of the handicapping contest for 2020, none other than ME! Like free credits? Than enter the weekly contest held by Kyogle, only takes a second to post a selection racing on Saturday 12PM EST or later, that’s it! Now on to the race preview with my selections at the bottom.

#1 Mischief Fire (Into Mischief x Street Cry x Danzig) – This filly breaks the trend of the last out race being a route, coming out of the G2 Girl Out Front at 7f. She finished a nice 3rd in that race and improved her SP to 97 which is line with the rest of the field. She did compete in two route races earlier in her campaign and finished 3rd both times in listed stakes. Not sure if distance will be an issue but the short rest coming into this race is certainly a concern.

#2 Outta Town Shipper (Midshipman x Speightstown x Wild Again) – This filly enters with a nice record of 4 wins from 5 starts with SP’s increasing after each race. Last out finished 1st in a listed stakes at 8f. Always tough to tell how these kind of runners will do first out in graded stakes company but she certainly earned her spot and fits SP wise.

#3 Skitty Scat (Take Charge Indy x Scat Daddy x Arch) – This filly took 5 tries to break her maiden but now has won 3 in a row, all at the distance of 8.5f which is the distance of today’s race. Looks like the stretch out in distance helped this filly and figures to be part of the pace scenario. Last race out won the 8.5f SilverBulletBeer with a nice SP of 103.

#4 American Goer (American Pharoah x A.P. Indy x Easy Goer) – 3rd place finisher in the BB Juvenile fillies tries 8.5f again today. Last race out finished a non-threatening  7th after being close to the pace in the G1 Los Vinegrette at 8f. Looks to get back on track for the Oaks with a good finish here today.

#5 Road of Heroes (Quality Road x Medaglia D’Oro x A.P. Indy) – This filly enters with 10 races, tied for most in the field with Given’s other filly Red Runs Down. Finished 2nd last out in the G1 Los Vinegrette at 8f in her first attempt at graded stakes company. She has never finished worse than 3rd in her 10 races and looks to be a part of the pace scenario in today’s race.

#6 Denovo Blanco (Cape Blanco x Miswaki x Roberto) – Interesting filly here, raced a 100SP in a residency race before the year finished, tying Joe Dimaggio for top speed in the field before the year ended. Bounced the next race with only an 85 SP at 9f. Last race out cut back to 8.25f and won by 4 ¼ lengths in a race where she might’ve run faster with faster competition. She will get the faster competition this race, facing graded stakes company for the first time. Has run fast enough to win this race.

#7 Sioux Dreams (Sioux Nation x Tapit x Empire Maker) – Out of Sioux Nation, this filly is the exception in this field of top rated sires. Last out this filly finished 3rd in a listed stakes at 8f. Another filly that has shown an increase in SP figures in each race but is still quite below the top SPs in the field. Will need to improve another 6-7 points to place in this field.

#8 Gotta Habit (Stanford x Indian Charlie x Habitat) – Gotta say, I looked at the breeding and dismissed this horse initially. After looking at the running lines this modestly bred horse has a big shot. Last race out she finished 2nd in a listed stakes race at 8f with a 100SP. This was her first time running a route race and stretches out here another half furlong. Another one facing a full field of graded stakes competitors for the first time.

#9 Rage of Dragons (Into Mischief x More Than Ready x Monsun) – First race out of Kentucky for this filly! Last out she finished 4th in a listed stakes at 9f before that won a NW2L at 9f with a SP of 96. Didn’t improve from ALW to stakes at the same distance which is a concern but cuts back in distance for her first attempt at graded stakes company.

#10 Gulches Beauty (Henny Hughes x Thunder Gulch x Bold Forbes) – Out of the great sprinter Henny Hughes this filly looks to take on G1 company for the first time at a route distance of 8.5f. Last out she finished 3rd in the G3 Davola Dane South at 8f. Off the pace runner needs to improve at this longer distance to contend SP wise.

#11 Ryans Pussyfoot (Adelaide x Storm Cat x Mr. Prospector) – This filly started off on the turf being by Adelaide, then was switched to the dirt for her last two races and showed remarkable improvement. Back end of Storm Cat x Mr. P supports that switch and won sprinting then at 8f in the G3 Dubai 1000 Guineas. Faces a full field here today compared to her last two starts of 10 & 4 on dirt.

#12 Based on Class – Top rated horse comes in off a win in what looks to be a G1 sponsored race at 9.5f with a big run of 102 in Feb. Ran out of space the race before, finishing 2nd in the G1 Movieland Starlet at 8.5f. This will be her third G1 race in a row and shortens up to 8.5f as the traditional Oaks preps are always at 8.5f. With a good run here, maybe the owner looks to the Derby instead of the Oaks given the 10f distance.

#13 Joe Dimaggio (Awesome Again x Giant’s Causeway x A.P. Indy) – Named after the great Yankees CF, bred to be royalty with elite bloodlines. On the racetrack started off her career like a future star winning 4 in a row. Then stepped up to graded stakes company and threw a dud finishing 8th in the G2 Golden Red at 8.5f. Last out finished 8th in the G1 Vermont is 4 Lovers at 9f. Two worst finishes have come at distances greater than 8f. One last chance at the Oaks trail before cutting back in distance?

#14 Red Runs Down (Medalia D’Oro x Hussonet x Deputy Minister) – Given’s 2nd runner also has compiled a nice record with 5 wins from 10 starts. Last out finished 4th in the G1 Vermont is 4 Lovers at 9f. Before that finished 1st in a listed stakes race at 8.5f and is two for two at 8.5f. Distance of 8.5f looks to suit this runner along with an off the pace trip.

Top Contenders:

  • Based on Class
  • Denovo Blanco
  • Skitty Scat
  • Outta Town Shipper
  • Gotta Habit
  • Ryans Pussyfoot

Selections:

3rd: Based on Class – I think this is the best-looking horse in the field and is the co-favorite by the bookmaker. I just don’t think she is best at this distance. This is a sim problem more than anything else as graded stakes longer than 9f on dirt for F&M are scarce.

2nd: Skitty Scat – Should be close to the pace and probably leads this field into the stretch but I think she gets nipped close to home.

1st: Denovo Blanco – Residency races can produce wonky results sometimes but I’m still going to tab this filly as my top choice in the field. Think she can run faster than she did her last race and will see how this pick plays out at 11-1.

Final Comments: As with most G1 derby/oaks preps this field is loaded with 10-12 contenders. These 3-year olds are still improving and the route distance will help some while hurt others. Good luck to all the entrants.

6 thoughts on “Race Preview: lool Oaks

  • March 19, 2020 at 5:51 pm
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    Thanks for a great review on this race. Go Gulches Beauty!!! 🙂

  • March 19, 2020 at 5:57 pm
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    Hey — nice write-up, and I’m delighted to see Denovo Blanco tipped to win by TOP SIM HANDICAPPER 🙂

    Let’s hope (for me) it pans out — Good Luck All !!!!

    • March 21, 2020 at 10:40 pm
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      Never in doubt for THE TOP SIM HANDICAPPER, 😉

      ICE COLD EXACTA NAILED!!!

      (Of course i didn’t tip this horse in the contest even though I spent time on the article, hopefully someone did)

      • March 21, 2020 at 11:09 pm
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        Exacta nailed indeed — superb job and great work there man 🙂

  • March 20, 2020 at 12:34 am
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    Thanks for the write up. Looks like Denovo and I are going head-to-head in this one! Good luck Pete, should be a fun one!

  • March 22, 2020 at 1:43 pm
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    After watching the race I only have one question…. Where have you gone Joe Dimaggio?

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