SIGNS OF CHANGE leads Allied Assault

According to World War II history, Germans trembled in fear at the sight of the Allied Assault on D-Day.

“How could there be so many ships?” they wondered, as they saw the sea full of Americans.

Though the consequences were far less severe, there were just as sure as trainers who opposed Kingab’s grand champion of the Sim, ALLIED ASSAULT.

This Saturday’s DPCD Grade I, $200,000 12-furlong turf test is named for perhaps the greatest deep closer in the history of the Sim. While there have been many great horses do extremely believable impressions of Silky Sullivan in our game, none were more convincing than Allied Assault, who was promptly inducted into the Sim Hall of Fame in its second class, in 2006.

We dug up an old race recap by Snowchief to show the kind of awe which was inspired by Allied Assault.

“Never say never when it looks like you got Allied Assault beat by the third call The 2003 Sim Eclipse Turf Horse champ appeared beat yet again in last week’s Grade 1 $1,000,000 John Scott Appreciation.  Down by a dozen lengths at the 9 furlong marker, the 4YO War Chant son seemed destined to go 0-for-3 in 2004, trailing angellic2’s pacesetter Russ.  Allied Assault, however, brought forth an awesome display of championship material, furiously chasing down a determined Russ to win going away in the final half-furlong by two lengths.

“Masterab stable had to be jubilant — the ‘Assault had racked up a 4th and 2nd in two 2004 graded starts and, despite his 111 and 117 SP#s, wondered if their prized charge was losing a step.  Saturday’s 123 SP# for the grassy 12 furlongs dismissed that nonsense thinking though.  Allied Assault still reigns supreme with 14 victories from 21 career calls to the post.  Ranked #1 in the Older Horse Long Turf division, he now chases the $4-million benchmark in lifetime earnings.”

Snowchief wrote those words in week 2048.

Now, in week 4904, we have a new champion who gracefully honors the name Allied Assault for this year’s Del Penn Champions Day.

SIGNS OF CHANGE looks to pad his resume for 2011 Horse of the Year in the $2 million, Grade I Allied Assault. In a brilliant campaign which has catapulted him into Sim history, Signs of Change has won four Grade I races on the turf, and goes for No. 5 here in Pennsylvania on Saturday. Already, there has been public support for Signs of Change as Horse of Year. When Pyeman started a thread about MISS TIMOSHENKO for that honor, cocoabeach soon thereafter put in a plug for Signs of Change. “Signs of Change sure is an impressive horse.  4 G1 wins and 1 G2 win this year.   Won the Breeders Bowl. Sick Speed figures.  I like this one and think deserves serious consideration.  Interesting horse and training.  had 2 G1 wins and a G3 on dirt in previous season including a BB appearance on dirt, switches to turf and has a monster year.  good stuff..” Believe it or not, the trainer of what very well could be the HOY may well have been feeling sorry for himself at the end of 2010. Signs of Change was a two-time Grade I winner on the main track, but had run three bad races out of four, and ran another poor one to start 2011. That’s when Elenalag made the switch that has changed the course of history. Signs of Change, a 5yo brown son of Dynaformer out of Elenalag’s Grade F Storm Cat mare THE COW’S MOO, has won six of eight on the turf, including those four Grade I wins. He’s already No. 1 in the division, and looks to solidify his chance to be voted No. 1 in all of the Sim with a victory Saturday in the Allied Assault.

TITLE DEFENSE is an accurate name for the second qualifier. Dixiedotco’s 5yo brown son of Awesome Again is the defending champion of the Grade I Allied Assault. An earner of more than $14 million with 18 career victories, Title Defense came running from more than nine lengths back in 2010 to wear down REMEMBER POPS by half a length to capture last year’s running of the Allied Assault. Title Defense is back to defend his title, but his last two do not give him the look of a horse ready to win a Grade I. A four-race winning streak came to and end with a third-place run int he Grade I Canada Turf, but it got worse in the Breeders Bowl Turf, when Title Defense never ran a step while struggling home 11th, 18 lengths behind Signs of Change. How in the world is Title Defense going to make up 18 lengths on one of the hottest horses in all of the Sim? Dixie has a heck of a turnaround to manufacture with this one, but he’s done it before. In fact, Title Defense exhibited a similar pattern last year before winning the Allied Assault. In 2010, he ran similar dismal races in the Canada Turf and Breeders Bowl before coming around and winning the Allied Assault. Can he do it again? With his massive earnings total and seven career Grade I victories, Title Defense retains the right to run a good one anytime he feels like it.

“There’s a lady who’s sure all that glitters is gold, and she’s buying a stairway to heaven.” A FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN? Maybe she will have to negotiate with Titleist to buy that one. Texasace was looking for a horse to hit the heights when he bred this one. Fairway to Heaven was a serious investment indeed. He’s a 4yo brown son of AP Indy, a scratch-bred with Deputy Minister and Alydar behind. One does not tap into those royal bloodlines cheaply, and texasace got just what he was looking for when he spent for this horse. Fairway to Heaven has won 11 of 21 career races, earning $1.7 million. (That shows you how impressive Title Defense’s total of $14 million-plus really is.) Like his trainer, the horse is having a terrific year. He’s won eight races, all on the turf, including a victory in the Grade I Coalminer Cup three back that serves as a highlight. Texasace is having a gigantic year, winning 35 races at a strike rate of 39.3 percent. The barn has won $4.45 million so far in a single calendar year. Also, Texasace is in first place all by himself in the graded wins standings, with eight. This very well could be the Trainer of the Year. While Signs of Change would top off his case for Horse of the Year with a victory in the Allied Assault, Texasace would do the same in his quest to be the best trainer of 2011. To top it off, Texasace is racing at one of his home tracks, and is listed as the current hot trainer in Pennsylvania.

The Allied Assault is a virtual who’s who of the best trainers in the Sim. While Wayne is in first place all alone in the graded wins standings with Texasace, Ledwith is not far behind with his wreckagee stable, which has seven. Take it from me, the last thing you want to see when you have to win a big race is a horse in the race with the letter “K” in it. That’s Ledwith’s brand name, and it means you might be disappointed on Saturday. To get his sixth Grade I win, Signs of Change is going to have to beat K’S STAGFLATION, a wildly successful 5yo brown son of Smart Strike out of Ledwith’s terrific supreme stable. While wreckagee has seven graded wins on the year, supreme has five. Ledwith wins a ton of graded races and knows how to get his horses to run huge in their biggest races. Can he do the same on Del Penn Champions Day with K’s Stagflation? As the 7-2 second choice, the morning line oddsmaker in Pennsylvania already is onto this horse as a possible upsetter. Look for K’s Stagflation to be on or near the lead, with the big recent speed figures to suggest he may be able to stay there. K’s Stagflation faded to fifth last out in the Grade I Japan Classic, and will be looking to re-establish himself at the Grade I level after having won two in a row at Grade 2. Ledwith engineered a gigantic Grade I score in this horse’s graded racing debut back when he was a 3yo, but has not yet duplicated that lone Grade I victory. After going lightly raced during most of 2011, it’s been go time lately for K’s Stagflation. He won the Grade 2 Paris Counsel two back on an apparent early sharp only two weeks after finishing fourth in the Grade I Ark De ComicDog. With a win here, K’s Stagflation would really become a good race-bad race horse and you have to respect his chances based on the man who is at the controls here.

Another thing we’re learning during this year of graded racing is to watch out for those 3yos late in the year. We’ve got a very live longshot here in YELLOW KORNSNAKE, a rapidly improving 3yo daughter of Pivotal who will go to post at a very generous 13-1. Qwikvett is showing a lot of faith in this filly to put her in against the best older male horses in the Sim. But, she is improving rapidly and certainly looks the part. Yellow Kornsnake has won six races in a row, moving up the ladder both in terms of class and speed figures. Those two big 113 and 112 numbers in her two most recent races sure look nice. She’s won two Grade I races in a row. Having knocked over everything that Qwikvett has put in front of her so far, she’s presented with a new challenge on Saturday. She has competed successfully against male horses in the past. She defeated colts three back in a listed stake, but will face older male horses for the first time in the Allied Assault. It won’t take long to find out if Yellow Kornsnake is up to this new level of competition. She likes to do her running on the front end, and shares a similar running style to Ledwith’s K’s Stagflation. That one is a very serious horse in this race, going to post at 7-2. The first question for Yellow Kornsnake will be how she is placed in relation to the other speed in the race, which is very tough speed indeed. The next question will be whether Yellow Kornsnake can accelerate away from her competition in the middle stages to gain a big lead at the head of the stretch as she has during her six-race winning streak. And, finally, if she can get that good position again, can she hold it? This is a huge test for this 3yo filly but like we said, she looks the part.

Shaghar Stables are keeping the dream alive for the Universal Racing Club. Unfortunately, their runner in the Grade I Allied Assault also is keeping alive his second-level allowance condition. COWS WITH GUNS has won only twice in 15 career starts. This is as clear cut a case of seconditis that any horse doctor ever encountered. With his late-running style, Cows With Guns has been good enough to build a very good record in the exacta, if not the win column. He’s been first or second in 10 of his 15 starts, but eight of those have been for second place money. Currently, this light gray 4yo son of Tapit is on a nine-race losing streak. He has not won since clearing his initial allowance condition back in February. But, before we get to feeling too sorry for Shaghar, let’s congratulate him for figuring out that his horse could run second at just about any class. His tour of seconditis took him from listed company up into graded company, and Cows With Guns has proven he can run second consistently as he moves up in class. Now, the question becomes, can he run second in a Grade I? He’s not much of a threat to win the race. He never wins. But, his trainer knows that. The question becomes whether he can come and get a share at the highest level of competition in the Sim. Even if he runs third, he’s taken another small step forward.

We’ve got another improving 3yo here in the Tees Stables’ MAXIMUM SPELL, who just about ensures a hot early pace in the Allied Assault. It’s not often that you see an all-out speed duel in a 12-furlong race, but that’s what we may be looking at on Saturday. Like K’s Stagflation and Yellow Kornsnake, Maximum Spell does his running on the front end. This is good news for the deep closers in the race, like the top qualifier himself, Signs of Change. There is going to be plenty of pace to run at in the Allied Assault. Maximum Spell shows front-end speed last out in a Grade I going shorter. He was all heart to break on top in the Grade I Jolly Summer Cup and hold them off the whole way, never in front by more than a length at any call and never headed, either. This is a tenacious horse. The presence of this improving colt is bad news for Yellow Kornsnake. That filly has been building multiple-length leads at the head of the stretch, but it’s hard to imagine her doing that against Maximum Spell. Of the three frontrunners we’ve seen so far, Maximum Spell probably is the most likely to be the speed of the speed, stretching out from 10 furlongs to 12 furlongs. The last time the horse raced this far, he ran off by himself before hitting the wall and fading to fifth. But, that was before that heroic Grade I score last out in which Maximum Spell showed a new level of determination. He’ll have to take another giant leap forward to win the speed duel here and then have enough left to hold off the superior class of the late runners.

CIRCULAR ODYSSEY is a 4yo chestnut son of Kingmambo who is having a bit of a frustrating year. In nine starts so far in 2011, Circular Odyssey has won only once, and shows at least four poor races in which he was off the board. The horse would be hard to pick in any graded race, let alone the Grade I Allied Assault. But, let’s put down our handicapping pen long enough to thank the man himself, the good doctor, AFC. Yes, this runner is trained by none other than the player behind the Del Penn Champions Day. Special thanks go out to AFC for sponsoring this gigantic day of racing which serves as the annual icing on the cake for each year of Sim racing. It’s another huge year on the track in Pennsylvania and Delaware, so make room in the owner’s box for AFC. He’ll take a longshot chance in the Allied Assault with Circular Odyssey, Maybe all this horse needs is to get out of New York and get R. Foster off his back. He was a dismal 10th last out in the Grade 2 Flying Carpet with Foster at the helm, after picking up the pieces to be third two back in the Grade I Classic Turf Stakes, also under Foster. This horse will drop far, far back early and try to make a run at it late.

REGAINED FAITH is the longest shot in the field at 26-1 for Rharfo’s Inzy Barns. This 4yo brown son of E Dubai is at a disadvantage in the Allied Assault both in terms of class and speed figures. With earnings of only $156,000, Regained Faith pales in comparison class wise to his competition. In Title Defense, for instance, Regained Faith faces a horse which has earned more than $14 million. Before accelerating to a 107 last out in winning his third straight, Regained Faith beat two short fields with subpar speed figures of 95. That doesn’t get him anywhere near to winning the Allied Assault, and is the reason the morning line oddsmaker has dismissed him as a longshot. But, it’s hard to fault Rharfo for taking a shot with this horse. After all, he’s got that three-race winning streak, and he may be sitting on a big race. He’s lightly raced, starting only 16 times lifetimes and only six times this year. This horse had a ton of rest in the early part of the year, and as such, could be in a prolonged improvement cycle here. Might this horse just be starting to bloom? Rharfo shows his faith in his horse with the massive class jump. If he’s going to run huge, why not do it on the biggest stage?

The second-longest shot in the field is VERTICAL IMPACT down on the rail at 22-1 for the Tazdevil Stables. Representing the Universal Racing Club, Vertical Impact has a similar racing record to Cows With Guns. That is, he’s got a clear case of seconditis. He’ll run in a Grade I here Saturday while retaining his second-level allowance condition. This 3yo chestnut son of Deep Impact has won only two of his 17 career starts, but has been second six times. That’s a respectable eight-for-17 in the exacta, but his record has been compiled against competition far below what he’s going to face on Saturday. Vertical Impact is in good form, having been first or second in six straight races, but most of those were restricted allowances against age-restricted company. Not only will Vertical Impact make his first start against older horses on Saturday, he’ll do it in a Grade I. It’s hard to imagine a 2-for-17 horse having much of an impact, vertical or otherwise, in a Grade I race. With career earnings of only $130,000, Vertical Impact is conceding a massive class edge to this field. He does have improving speed figures, having recently graduated into the triple-digit club, and carding a lifetime best of 108 last out. If he so much as hits the board here, he’s taken a giant leap forward in his career.

Our final qualifier is the second half of an entry from the Tazdevil Stables. ATOMIC BLAST is a 4yo brown son of King Kamehameha who has become a hit-or-miss type for the Taz Man. At his best, Atomic Blast is very capable. Take a look at that race five back when he ran a very nice 114 when second in a Grade 3. That’s the kind of number you need to contend in a Grade I. At his worst, you need binoculars to find Atomic Blast when the leaders come running down the lane. He was ninth, beaten almost 35 lengths two back in the Grade I Europe Classic. That’s a scary race for any handicapper trying to make a case for this horse. He was beaten very badly at today’s class and distance. What’s more, it’s starting to look like 12-furlong distance is beyond this horse’s capability. He should have won a 12-furlong allowance back in the spring in a short field of six, but could not hold on. He shows poor recent races at 11 furlongs, and only snapped back to form last out when shortened to 10 furlongs in restricted allowance company. Now, he takes two big jumps: Up to Grade I and back to 12 furlongs. With all the early speed in here, Atomic Blast probably is going to be about fourth early and will have to pass horses when he’s been fading in the stretch at this distance. Tough assignment.