Is My Destiny Destined to Win Topicount Special?
A special weekend is here featuring a series of DelPenn end of year champion stake races. And one of these special races is the Topicount Special, a race that has been on the race card in Delaware since 2003.
This race was originally run at a distance of 10 furlongs in 2003 with a purse of a cool million buckos. In 2006 it was stretched to 12 furlongs, but this would not last as the following year it would be rolled back to the mile and a quarter distance, however, the purse would be doubled to two million. In 2008, the race would be run in New York and the distance was again increased to 12 furlongs. This would be the only time that the race would be run out of Delaware.
Last year, the event would draw the fewest entrants ever to the race, with only four runners showing up and competing for a purse of a million, the amount being cut in half. My Destiny raced last year in this race, was sent off as the favorite, and finished second in the short field. He looks to make amends as he returns for another shot and is one again established as the favorite.
This year, the race undergoes another change, the purse has been increased after complaints of last year’s drastic reduction and owner’s pretty much boycotting the event. The purse is now at $1.5 million and owner’s are sending their horses to the track. The race is open to all horses age three and up.
1. Whispered Secrets 9-1
With this horse, you have the Good, the Bad and the Ugly. Starting with the good, Whispered Secrets has won four of his nine starts during the 2011 campaign, which includes three non-graded stake events. The best speed coming in the March running of the Lt. Vast Dirt Stayer, 11 furlongs with a speed of 110. The bad…after each good outing, Whispered has been putting in a bad one. The ugly…he usually finishes well back, not even being a factor. So how will he do? He comes off a nice second, closing hard and missing by under a length with a speed of 104 in the Chanting War Inventational. This tends to add up to a disappointing outing this time should this trend hold true.
2. Crystal Meth 9-1
At the age of five, Crystal Meth is making his very first stakes appearance of any kind. Relatively lightly raced this year, Crystal has a record of 2-2-2 in the six starts he’s made, all with allowance company. Four of these races have speeds over 100, topping out at 107 in September, where he finished second by two lengths. His last race was an easy win as the 1-10 favorite, posting a speed of 92 for the race that he won by three lengths. The speed probably would have been higher if he had any serious challengers in the race. He has potential to take the win here, but I’d like to see how he handles the stake level first before throwing money at the cashier.
3. Nametag Fiasco 6-1
Nametag Fiasco is likely to be the front runner early on in this race. He’s won 10 of 21 career starts with three victories coming this year. Nametag peeked with his speed numbers last winter, hitting speeds of 105 in November, 116 in December and 111 in January before cooling off. This past November, he finished fourth in the Disco Mark with a speed of 105. If he really is a winter runner, this race could be a big speed figure for this first-time grade starter.
4. Indian’s Kiss 6-1
In nine starts this year, Indian’s Kiss has hit the board three times, with one victory. The win came in an allowance race, on a sloppy track. While finished fourth in the GR Simster’s 2011 Championships last month, it should be noted that he missed by 3 strides, closing from 14 back in a field of 20 and speed of 107. An off-track may be more to his liking, however, still has potential and goes back to 12 furlongs, where he finished second in his only run at this distance in June. Could be a surprise factor.
5. My Destiny 2-1
Beaten favorite in this race last year, finishing second, returns for another shot to gain a victory. My Destiny has been on the board in every race during 2011, with a record of 4-2-4. In his last start, he finished second in the Breeders’ Bowl Dirt Marathon relinquishing the lead late in the 14 furlong route. Picked up nice win in the G3 The Premier scoring a speed of 109 for 11 furlongs as only graded win this season in four tries. This son of Empire Maker has done well over his career, wining nearly 25% of his starts and on the board about 75% of his races. Serious contender in this race.
6. Hold Onto Nothing 6-1
2011 has been a good year for Hold Onto Nothing, who has mustered a record of 3-6-2 in 12 starts, most of the race in fields of six or less. The one race that he has been off the board this year was his sole career start in a stake race, finishing well back with a speed of 95. Over his last four starts, he’s hit 102 three times and most recently, a speed of 107 which is his career best. That speed does show promise coming into this event, but his poor effort in the non-grade stake race is enough to scare me away.
7. Red Wood Man 4-1
This colt has been consistent in hitting speeds of 100 or higher throughout his 12 starts in 2011. However, he’s only been able to muster two wins, coming in the later half of the season, with non-grade victories coming in the Obispo Town Dirt Route (10.5f) in July and his only 12 furlong start in November in the Exeter Furniture Dirt Stayer. The November race he won by a neck and a speed of 101. Red Wood has nice late speed, and has finished lower than fourth only twice this year. The mile and half distance should be ok for him and look for a better speed number in this race. May not win, but could factor into exotic wagers.
8. Mehrunes Dagon 9-2
Four times this season, Mehrunes Dagon has hit a speed of 108 in his races, which is his career high. He has won five of 10 starts this year, ranging in distances of 9 to 12 furlongs. These wins all came in allowance level races, however Mehrunes has finished third twice in stake races this season. This one could be the pace setter in the race but will need to be at very best as this six-year old will be making his very first grade level stakes appearance.
My Destiny is my choice in this race as he has a class edge against this group and comes off a second, facing tougher in the Breeders’ Bowl race last month.
I’m gambling that Nametag Fiasco likes running in the winter and this work to his favor, possibly finding the wire first, getting my second choice.
Third spot goes to Red Wood Man who seems to be very reliable in popping out those 100-speed numbers.