One Empire Odds On Favorite In Vicky Derby

The Grade 1 Vicky Derby

Purse: $1,200,000 ($720,000 To The Winner)

One Mile And Five Eighths On The Turf

Three Year Olds (Open)

Track: Victoria (Australia)

Only three of the eight three year old colts entered in the Grade 1 Vicky Derby at 13 furlongs on the Victoria Race Course turf Saturday have run longer than 12 furlongs in their careers–and they don’t have a whole lot of experience doing that.

So if you’re thinking of laying some of your SIM dollars down at the betting windows, you won’t find much form in the way of distance to study here, but what you might find is some real value here at the betting windows at Victoria Race Course.

The favorite, by far and away, according to the odds makers, is the entry from Theatrical Stables, One Empire. And even the 9/5 morning line favorite, who is a son of Empire Maker, hasn’t run a turf race since May, when he finished a very strong third in the 12-furlong Grade 1 Japanese Derby.

Satan’s Storm, Gimlet Binge and New Vegas are all listed at 9/2 behind One Empire.

Of those three at 9/2, only New Vegas has been run longer than 12 furlongs, and that was a huge win in his last outing in the 14-furlong Grade 3 Dutch St. Leger.

Satan’s Storm looks pretty interesting in this spot, because he’s a multiple graded stakes winner. He’s got some pretty big wins on his resume–and a ton of money in the bank for his connections.

And Gimlet Binge was coming on strong late when he finished second in the 12-furlong Grade 1 Sydney Derby back in April, and last time out the entry from Skunkbarn Stables was running strongly late when he finished third in the 10-furlong Grade 2 Early Months Stakes.

Quite a few of these have shown in their past performance lines that they want to go longer, and you could make a legitimate case for just about any of the colts in the $1,200,000 Grade 1 Vicky Derby this Saturday.

(1) BUY ON DIPS (IRE) Owner: Taboo Stables

Odds: 15/1 (Raven’s Pass x Galileo (IRE) x Cape Cross (IRE))

Buy On Dips was running mostly in sprints early in his career, with a couple of short routes thrown in, before he broke his maiden back in May. Since then, his connections have gradually worked him up in distance to 14 furlongs on the turf. He’s only got that one maiden win on his resume in 17 career starts. But since the scratch-bred son of Raven’s Pass started going up in distance, he hasn’t finished out of the top three. He’s never run in any type of stakes race at all in his career, so this Grade 1 Vicky Derby will be his coming out party, as far as stakes competition goes. He’s never raced anywhere other than North America, other than a couple of starts in Jamaica early in his career.

(2) ONE EMPIRE (KY) Owner: Theatrical Stables

Odds: 9/5 (Empire Maker x One Attack (Gone West x Lyphard))

One Empire is the odds on favorite here in the Vicky Derby at 9/5. You might recognize her dam, if you’ve paid close attention to his breeding. The son of Empire Maker is out of the multiple graded stakes winner, One Attack, who banked over $2.3 million in her career. One Attack, who won graded races on both the turf and the dirt, was the Breeders’ Bowl Distaff winner in 1999. One Empire is one of two of One Attack’s foals who have become graded stakes winners. One Empire has only five turf starts in his 14 career tries, but that last turf start of his, the third place finish in the Grade 1 Japanese Derby in May, was a doozy. He rushed up from way back late to just get up for third, right behind Poet Sabatina, who won the 14-furlong Grade 2 Saint Legend Stakes a couple starts back. One Empire has seen some pretty tough competition in his career so far. But most of it has been in the dirt routes lately. This is his first return to the turf since May, and the odds makers appear to like his chances a lot here.

(3) PARALLEL LINE (KY) Owner: Super- Often Imitated, Never Duplicated!

Odds: 7/1 (Henrythenavigator x Parallax (Danzig x Nijinsky II))

Parallel Line comes from some pretty regal breeding too. The son of Henrythenavigator is out of the Danzig mare Parallax, who was also a graded stakes winner. Parallel Line doesn’t have many career starts, but he looked really impressive in his last two. Two starts back, he threw the first triple digit speed figure race of his career in a second place finish in a 12-furlong allowance event in South Africa on the turf. And last time out, he finished a very strong second to New Vegas in the 14-furlong Grade 3 Dutch St. Leger in Germany. He popped a career high 105 speed figure in that race. The interesting thing about Parallel Line is that he came from way back in both of those starts and simply ran out of ground. He’ll love the 13 furlongs here on Saturday. And he might even love it more if it were a bit longer. Super Stables has a ton of these monsters just waiting to break out, and you should be hearing quite a bit from Parallel Line in the coming seasons, since he’s really just getting started in graded stakes company here. He might be a live long shot in this race. He was 8-1 when he ran against three other graded winners last time out in the Dutch St. Leger, and he might be worth plucking a few dollars down here in this spot Saturday. Look for him to lay back early and come with a strong late rush at the leaders.

(4) SATAN’S STORM (IRE) Owner: Livestrong Racing

Odds: (9/2) (Cape Cross (IRE) x Ozik (Sadler’s Wells x Woodman))

Satan’s Storm started off his career with a bang last season when he won three of his first four starts, including a win in the Grade 3 Summertime, en route to his Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Turf appearance in 2010. This season, all he’s done is won six of his nine starts, and he’s had some pretty big wins among those. He won the $500,000 Grade 1 Jockey Club in Deauville back in May, and two starts after that he notched his third graded win in the $1 million Grade 2 Colonial Derby in Virginia. That win in the 10.5 furlong Grade 1 Jockey Club saw him pop a career high 108 speed figure. That was a pretty impressive start for Satan’s Storm, who is blessed with a ton of early speed. He led at all four calls in all three of his graded stakes wins so far, and you’ll probably see a lot of that early speed on display here in Victoria this Saturday. He’s never been 13 furlongs before, but twice he’s gone 12 furlongs. He finished fourth in the Grade 1 Sydney Derby after leading early there, and last time out he won the 12-furlong Prospector Bend Turf Stayer Stakes in the District of Columbia. He’s going to be a dangerous colt here in Victoria Saturday. He’ll be looking to make this his tenth win in 15 starts, and if the rest of this field lets Satan’s Storm get too far out in front, they might not catch him Saturday.

(5) DYNAJINSKY (KY) Owner: Right At Home Stables

Odds: 6/1 (Dynaformer x Nijinsky II x Alydar)

After breaking his maiden and winning a couple allowance events to start off his career, Dynajinsky was sent off to graded company, and he’s been there ever since. He’s had an incredible ten graded starts so far in his 13 career starts. He just recently snagged that first graded win two starts back in the 10-furlong Grade 2 Adam’s Apple in Deauville back in July. He threw a 104 speed figure in that win, and after that his connections put him away for a bit of a rest. After a two-month break, he showed up in the 12-furlong Grade 1 Classic Turf Stakes in New York last time out. He was pretty well beaten there, but you can draw a line through that start. Toss that race out when you’re handicapping this race. Dynajinsky was coming off a long layoff, he was racing against older horses for the first time, and that race was just a tune-up for this Grade 1 Vicky Derby on Saturday. His highest speed figure (107) came in March, when he finished third in the Grade 2 Golden Rose. That eight furlongs was a little short for his liking. Dynajinsky might be a little short on distance experience, like most of these, but he more than makes up for that in stakes experience. He’s getting back to his age group here in the Vicky Derby Saturday, and that should make all the difference in the world to Dynajinsky. Might want to keep your eye on this guy. He likes to lay pretty close to the early pace, and he’ll probably be chasing Satan’s Storm most of the way. If he can stay close to Satan’s Storm and not let him get too far out in front, Dynajinsky’s got a serious shot here.

(6) GIMLET BINGE (JPN) Owner: Skunkbarn Stables

Odds: 9/2 (Tanino Gimlet (JPN) x Bring Me Some Joy (Theatrical (IRE) x Kingmambo)

Gimlet Binge doesn’t have near the stakes experience that Dynajinsky has, but this colt from Skunkbarn Stables seems to be screaming for more distance, and he’ll get exactly that here on Saturday. The Japanese-bred son of Gimlet Binge has 12 career starts and he’s been top three in all of those races except one–a sixth place finish in his MSW debut way back in June of last year. This colt has been ultra consistent since then, and he’s got three graded stakes races under his belt. In April, he came from over ten lengths off the pace to finish second in the Grade 1 Sydney Derby. After that he came from ninth place and over 14 lengths off the leaders to finish third in the big Grade 1 Derby de English. Both of those starts were ten furlong affairs, and you could see then that Gimlet Binge wanted more distance. Then, after a couple allowance wins, he came back last time out in the 10-furlong Grade 2 Early Months Stakes. Guess what he did there. That’s right, he came from 13 lengths off the pace at the third call to finish third, beaten by just three lengths. This colt wants more distance, period. This colt just might relish this 13-furlong distance the Grade 1 Vicky Derby has to offer this Saturday. And he would probably love nothing better than to get some really fast early fractions to run at.

(7) XR FORTY EYE CREW (JPN) Owner: The Big Oil Conglomerate (Ft. LordPye)

Odds: 21/1 (Tanino Gimlet x More Than Ready x Machiavellian)

XR Forty Eye Crew is the long shot here, at 21/1, and he’s owned by The Big Oil Conglomerate now. His connections claimed him for $7,500 in a maiden claiming race in July in Malaysia, which XR Forty Eye Crew won. The scratch-bred son of Tanino Gimlet who’s got More Than Ready and Machiavellian back there in his pedigree was being run mostly in sprints by his previous connections. He only had three turf starts at the very beginning of his career. After The Big Oil Conglomerate claimed him, he kept him on the dirt but he started running him much longer, and a couple things happened very quickly. His speed figures zoomed into the upper 90’s from the mid-70’s, and he started winning races–two of his last four to be exact since he was claimed. He was stepped up into allowance company, and in his second start for his new connections, he absolutely demolished a starter allowance field by open lengths at 11 furlongs. He then entered his first stakes race and finished a well-beaten fourth.  And then last time out, he opened up a huge lead in a 10-furlong allowance field in Greece and won geared down. Now The Big Oil Congolomerate is taking his $7,500 purchase to the next step. He’s starting him on turf for the first time since he acquired him, and he’s also getting his first graded start here. Being from Tanino Gimlet, turf makes sense, and he certainly has shown he loves the longer distances on the dirt. Boy, what a story this would be if XR Forty Eye Crew could get his first turf win here in his first graded start, especially in this company. This is a $1.2 million grade 1, and from this horse’s performances before he was claimed, you would never have dreamed in a million years he would be racing in this kind of company this quickly.

(8) NEW VEGAS (KY) Owner: The Evil Empire

Odds: 9/2 (Medaglia D’Oro x Fallout Shelter (Ghostzapper x Nijinsky II))

New Vegas really didn’t do a whole lot until April of this season. He only had five races before he broke his maiden, and his highest speed figure was an 81 before that maiden-breaking win. This gray son of Medaglia D’Oro who’s out of the multiple graded stakes winning Ghostzapper mare Fallout Shelter has blossomed very quickly since April. He’s won five of his seven starts, finished second in the GRSIMSTERS English Derby (Restricted), and then in his last time out on the track, he jumped up and scored a big win in the 14-furlong Grade 3 Dutch St. Leger. He’s only thrown three 100-plus speed figures in his brief career, but two of those (107 and 108) came in his last two starts. This horse loves this distance, and he’s ready to roll. As he’s gone longer distances, he’s developed quite a bit of early speed. He loves to lay close to the early leaders and then make his move in deep stretch. He’ll probably do exactly that here on Saturday. There’s really only one horse with legitimate speed in this race, and you’ll probably see New Vegas tracking him early before he makes his big stretch move. This is a pretty nice colt that The Evil Empire has here, one who certainly has to be taken seriously in this spot. He doesn’t have a whole lot of graded stakes experience, but he’s loaded with talent. This guy can definitely run with this field.