Eight Going Coxless
A huge $2.5 million purse has attracted a surprisingly small, but predictably talented group of turfers to Victoria for the eleventh running if the Grade I Coxless Stakes, at the always competitive 10 furlong distance.
A couple of recent BTB articles have suggested ways to improve one’s chances of breeding an Eclipse Award or Breeders’ Bowl winner. How about this tip for improving your chances to have a Hall-of-Famer? Run out of the money in the Coxless. In the inaugural running, Amanda Jane finished fifth. The following year, recent inductee Ray of Pye was seventh, a feat duplicated in 2004 by Rain God. While Rapid Grey is not in the Hall, he is a likely nominee if Stoners ever retires him. The Rapid One has lost this race twice.
And of the winners? While several have gone on to win more graded stakes, none are in the hall. In fact, few winners were expected to win this race. Since 2003, no horse among the top two in the wagering pool has won.
(One more interesting pattern is that the four most recent winners all exited 12-furlong Grade I stakes in the last race leading up to this. See if you can find the only runner to fit that pattern.)
The upcoming Breeders’ Bowl races have a gap in the turf division. Trainers need to choose between the mile and the mile-and-a-half distances. Three of these runners have the points to qualify for the mile, but their trainers have opted to keep them at their strength – 10 furlongs, presumably foregoing the more well-known feature two weeks hence. Of course, the huge Victoria purse has a lot to do with it, too.
Here is a look at today’s field:
PP 1 SANDOR(ENG) (NEW APPROACH (IRE) x KRIS S. x DANEHILL) bred and trained by sangster (Galileo Stables, 21%) Style: E/P, Odds: 5-1
Versatile runner beat a pretty nice field last time in the Grade III Cup of Europe. He’s a past Grade I winner and has a history of running well in streaks. He’d be easy to overlook, stuck on the rail and facing others with more gaudy recent speed figures, but that may be a mistake. His form cycle appears on the upswing and he should be able to sit just behind early leaders and get first crack at them if it comes to that. Jockey won this race last year, going wire to wire.
PP 2 FERAL(KY) (CURLIN x A.P. INDY x DAMASCUS) bred and trained by reacher (Given Stables: Fire and Blood, 26%) Style: E, Odds: 8-1
After winning this race last year, Given returns with this wild three-year-old. Three-year-olds have won this race before, so that’s probably not an issue, although this is his first time facing older. Feral possesses the speed of the speed and a three race win streak. Two races back he handily beat back some of the top three-year-old turfers in the world in the Grade I Big Red, earning a speed figure that holds up against any others’ in here. The early lead is his if he wants it, and lately that has meant a comfortable win for him.
PP 3 ESCAPING JUSTICE(GER) (MONSUN(GER) x PLEASANT COLONY x ROBERTO) bred and trained by blazsadcfo (Shamrock Stables, 17%) Style: P, Odds: 17-1
Two races back, at distance and odds similar to today’s, this three-year-old made a nice closing move to upset a Grade II field in France. Last trip out he tired late while trying for an extra quarter mile. If you excuse that race, and you probably can because he’d earlier shown a distaste for marathoning, you have a lightly raced colt showing rapid improvement, with speed figures approaching what others in here have done. And if you excuse that last race, you’ve dismissed the reason for the long odds. It’s true that he doesn’t have the credentials of several others in here, and extrapolating improvement is always dangerous. I’d pass for now, but longshot players may notice a nice angle making the payoff worth the risk.
PP 4 OUTBACK RAIN(KY) (A.P. INDY x KINGMAMBO x DANZIG) bred and trained by Iluka (Tulloch Stables, 15%) Style: S, Odds: 7-2
Five-year-old didn’t start his racing career until just after his fourth birthday, so he is still lightly raced for his age. He has four in-the-money finishes in graded stakes, but he’s still looking for his first Grade I. In fact, it’s been nearly a year since he’s had any wins. Aptly named horse’s chances would have improved on a yielding surface, but alas, the weather looks perfect for Saturday. He’ll be flying late and this race is usually won by a late charger. He should get a piece of the purse, but the short price looks too short to be a value play.
PP 5 HEYAEB(KY) (STREET CRY (IRE) x SADLER’S WELLS x KEY TO THE MINT) bred and trained by ceclaim7 (Royal Belgian Kempen Farm, 17%) Style: S, Odds: 7-1
Twenty of this one’s first 22 races were at the allowance level. His record in those 20 races was 4-7-7. I’ll do the addition for you: that’s 18 in-the-money finishes in 20 starts. (We’ve seen similar streaks before, so we should point out that only one of those 18 finishes was in a four-horse field.) Trainer did a great job putting that streak together, and the hesitance to move to stakes level was justified – the speed figures did not exactly scream for a jump in class. That is until early March, when Heyaeb posted a 111. He’s been running aginst much tougher since. His record in graded stakes is not good, but he picked up his first stakes win last time in an overnight that featured a pair of graded winners. As a rule, I wouldn’t back a horse looking for his first graded win in his 28th start, and I wouldn’t suggest breaking that rule now. After all, even if he repeats that March effort, it wouldn’t be enough today, but a hard working horse and a shrewd trainer deserve a rooting section. Jockey Kohlmorgan is having a down year, but he’s won this race three of the last five years.
PP 6 PERFECT BEAST(KY) (GHOSTZAPPER x NUREYEV x SEATTLE SLEW) bred and trained by wrecks (Pompeya Thoroughbred Racing Corporation, 26%) Style: P, Odds: 3-1
One of the most accomplished trainers in the game brings a true beast to this race. Perfect Beast is on a tear, winning seven straight races, nine of his last ten, and 11 of his last 13. And the wins were big – the last seven all were by large margins. Two races ago he finished six lengths ahead of the morning line favorite. Some of the races during the streak have come in pretty restricted company. He won a four-horse race restricted to four-year-olds whose last race were at the same track, for instance, but his last two races were Grade I wins with speed figures that no other horse in here can match. Form cycles have downward trends, too, of course, and his will come someday, but for right now, Perfect Beast looks like the fastest horse here and at the top of his game.
PP 7 PORTMAN’S PERFECT(KY) (PLEASANTLY PERFECT x SADLER’S WELLS x IRISH RIVER(FR)) bred and trained by nijinsky4 (Mv4ever Stables, 17%) Style: S, Odds: 12-1
Talk about persistence. This is Portman’s third try to become the King of the Coxless (I’m surprised I waited this long into the article to use that phrase). He won in 2008 and tried again the following year. In the preview to the 2009 try, the writer correctly pointed out that Portman needed a form reversal to have a chance. The same is true today. Thirty of his last 32 races have been graded stakes, and while he’s earned a lot of cash for his barn over that time, he hasn’t won a graded stakes in over two years. He finally broke down in his last race (aptly named The Whipping Boy), and took an eleven week vacation, only to land right back in the fire in this tough contest. Two years ago he had a similar vacation and came back to win against an impressive overnight field, so he is not without hope.