Build a Better Breeders Bowl Champion (written by Ladofmanor)
In my last article we looked at how to best increase your chances of winning an Eclipse award. It was found that, in general, horses that won or did very well in the Breeders Bowl went on to gain an Eclipse nomination then win their category.
Once I had established this, I thought it would be a good idea to establish how to give yourself the best chance of winning a Breeders Bowl. There are so many factors that go into winning a race and even more that go into the Breeders Bowl.
With so many factors come so many questions that must be answered; what were the trends? Which sire stood up as the most successful? What is the most common age to win a Breeders Bowl Turf? What is the optimum in terms of weeks rest before the race? Do turf winners have more rest before the race compared with dirt winners? Am I better off running in a ungraded stakes race before a Juvy race or do most Breeders Bowl Juvy winners have a G1 lead in? Is your head boggling?
The answers to these questions and more are within….
RACE SPECIFIC RESULTS
The stats have been taken from the year 2000 onwards to eliminate the data from 1998 and 1999 as it significantly skewed the results due to no wear and tear aspect.
From the table we can see that (apart from the Juvy Turf and the Juvy filly), all Breeders Bowl runners are having more rest going into the race on average in the last six years than the last eleven years. In regard to the Juvy fillies, the decrease in rest in the last six years compared to the eleven years of the race is certainly not significant (0.1 weeks less rest) and negligible. On the contrary, the same can be said for the Breeders Bowl Turf with winners in the last six years have 0.1 weeks more rest than in the eleven years of the race and we can therefore say that there is no significant change.
What is also evident is that the 2yo’s are getting significantly more rest compared to all other race categories. This has always been the case over the eleven year history with (in most cases) 2yo’s having more than 1 week extra rest and this trend has continued in the last six years.
As can be seen, the overall trend is significantly more rest before the race in the last six years. It is difficult to attribute this trend to anything in particular however looking at the raw data (Data Sheet 1) it is evident that although the first two years of data had been excluded, there was still a tendency to run horses in the Breeders Bowl off a 2 week or sometimes just the 1 week break.
This was particularly evident from the years 2000 to 2004. For example, in the Breeders Bowl Classic from the years 2000 to 2004, trainers ran their horses off a 3 week break average compared to the years 2005 to 2010 with a 4.8 week break average. It is only that the data from 2005 to 2010 is included in the over eleven year history data that the difference from the six years of data compared with the eleven years of data is not as significant.
This graph illustrates the significant difference that including the data from the last six years into the eleven year data made. As is evident, the difference from 2000 – 2004 compared to 2005 – 2010 is substantial. The biggest difference is in the Breeders Bowl Classic, Distaff and Sprint. These three races combined from 2000 – 2004 had an average rest of 3 weeks before the race whereas for the 2005 – 2010 period they had an average of 4.6 weeks. Another notable difference occurs with the Juvy Turf fillies in which trainers gave their horses an average of 4.2 weeks off before the race between 2000 – 2004 and from 2005 – 2010 it increased to an average of 6 weeks. It is also interesting to note that during the same periods, the Juvy Turf winners had almost a reversal to that of the Juvy Turf fillies in that they went from having an average pre race rest of 5.6 weeks (2000 – 2004) to an average of 4.5 weeks (2005 – 2010).
Turf / Dirt – This graph shows that horses that win the Breeders Bowl racing on turf get less rest before the race as compared with their dirt counterparts. The difference is negligible on data from 2000 – 2010 with just 0.08 weeks less on turf to dirt and slightly more from 2005 – 2010 with 0.3 weeks less on turf than dirt.
Yearly Data – There appears to be little difference between the yearly data from 2000 – 2010 compared to 2005 – 2010 however the trend is defiantly showing more rest in the last six years compared with data over the full eleven year history. Pre race rest on dirt has increased 0.46 weeks and turf has increased by 0.24 (2000 – 2010 vs 2005 – 2010).
When focussing on data from specific periods, it is apparent that there is significant change in the last six years in terms of weeks rest pre race.
Turf / Dirt – This illustrates the impact that the last six years of data has had on the eleven year data. When looking at the eleven years of data it appeared that turf winners had slightly less rest than dirt winners, however when we focus on the first five years of data it is evident that turf winners were rested more than dirt winners (average of 3.96 weeks turf and 3.8 weeks dirt). When we look at the last six years the trend has now reversed in that turf winners have less rest pre race on average.
Yearly Data – As would be expected from the previous summary, average weeks rest for dirt winners has increased substantially in the last six years compared to the first five years from 3.8 to 4.8 weeks. Turf winners average rest has only increased from 3.96 to 4.5 weeks over the same period.
As the sample size is very small, data can be skewed easily by a couple of different methods of trainers or injuries of horses. What is apparent from the data is that turf runners overall receive less pre race rest on average compared to dirt.
Yearly Data – This graph illustrates what percentage of Breeders Bowl winners won their last race before winning the Breeders Bowl.
The red bars represent the eleven years of data from 2000 – 2010. The highest percentage of winners of the Breeders Bowl that won their last start is 63.7% which is the equivalent of seven out of eleven. This success rate was achieved in five of ten Breeders Bowl categories from the eleven years. In seven of the ten categories, more than 50% of winners won their previous race before winning their Breeders Bowl.
The last six years of data is represented by the yellow bars. The highest percentage of winners of the Breeders Bowl that won their last start is 83.3% which is the equivalent of five out of six. This success rate was achieved in three of ten Breeders Bowl categories from the six years. In just four of the ten categories, more than 50% of winners won their previous race before winning their Breeders Bowl.
It appears that in the last six years compared with an overall sample of eleven years that there are less winners of the Breeders Bowl who won their previous race. Even though three of the ten categories had 83.3% (or five in six) runners winning back to back, percentage wise, there were less winners achieving this feat.
Turf / Dirt Data – The Breeders Bowl Distaff, Juvy Filly and Juvy Turf Filly categories all had the highest percentage of Breeders Bowl winners who won their previous race. In other words, a horse racing in these particular categories is more likely to win the race after having won their previous start.
The Breeders Bowl Sprint has had had the lowest percentages of winners who won their previous race in the eleven years of data. From 2000 – 2010 just 36.4% of the Breeders Bowl Sprint winners had won their previous race. The numbers would have been even lower had the data from the last six years not been included with 50% (three in six) of them winning their previous race before winning the Breeders Bowl. From 2000 – 2004 just one in five (20%) had actually won their previous race before going on to take the title.
A visual analysis of the graph shows that in the last six years, there is a greater tendency in dirt winners to win their previous race as opposed to turf winners. The data also backs this up with three of the five dirt categories posting percentages of horses winning back to back far higher than 50% compared with just one of five turf categories. The overall data from the eleven years however does not reflect the same trend with can therefore be attributed to the first five years of data indicating that dirt winners are more likely to win their previous race as well as the Breeders Bowl now than in the years 2000 – 2004 with the reverse being true for turf winners.
In summary, Breeders Bowl winners are much more likely to come off a win last time out before their Breeders Bowl victory in the last six years as opposed to the five years before 2005. Dirt winners are more likely to win their previous race before their Breeders Bowl victory than turf winners.
Yearly Data – What is immediately obvious after looking at this graph is that from 2000 – 2004 there was very few favorites to win. The Breeders Bowl Turf had two winning favorites and both the Turf Distaff and Turf Mile had just the one meaning that just three of the ten race categories had a favorite win. I will not bother with percentages or any other stats in relation to this as four favorites in five years and fifty races is peanuts!
What we can do is acknowledge that the rate of favorites winning has increased in the past six years. A trainer is more likely now than then to have their horse go in as favorite and win. 50% of winners in the Juvy Turf were favorites with 33.3% of Turf Mile winners being favorites. Seven of the ten categories had at least one favorite win in the last six years with a total of ten favorites winning in sixty races for a 16.7% success rate for favorites.
There were five favorites that won in 1998 and just one in 1999. That would mean that 62.5% of the winners of the Breeders Bowl in 1998 were favorites. This is another example of why I am tending to discount data from 1998 and 1999. Since then, the year with most favorites to win is both 2006 and 2008 with four wins a piece.
Turf / Dirt Data – Since the year 2000, in sixty-six Breeders Bowl races on dirt, just three winners have been favorites. This equates to 4.54% of winners in eleven years for dirt. To put this into context, the Turf Juvy, Turf Mile and Breeders Bowl Turf have three winning favorites each. Since year 2000, in sixty Breeders Bowl races on turf, thirteen winners at 21.7% have been favorites.
In summary, a trainers in this years Breeders Bowl would be more confident of winning the race than in 2000 to 2004. The success rates have increased since then however trainers with a runner on dirt that is posted as favorite may not exude as much confidence.
This graph illustrates the average amount of races that winning horses ran in from the start of that year until before they won the Breeders Bowl.
What becomes immediately obvious is that in the last six years we do not race our horses (winning horses) anywhere near as much as the winning Breeders Bowl horses of 2000 to 2004. The same may hold true for all horses across the board regardless of whether they win or not but there is certainly undeniable trend based on a visual summary of this graph.
Some alarming differences exist between winning horses in the Breeders Bowl Classic between 2000 to 2004 compared to 2005 to 2010. From 2000 to 2004, the five winners of the race had an average of 13.8 races pre Breeders Bowl. This dropped to an average of 8.5 races between 2005 to 2010 meaning that the trainers that won the Breeders Bowl spaced out their horses runs significantly more during that period. The same trend (to a lesser extent) occurs in all other races except for the 2yo races.
The 2yo races generally show no significant difference apart from a tendency to (on average) race both dirt and turf fillies slightly less. A significant difference is evident for the Juvy Turf with the winners from 2005 to 2010 running on average 1.2 races more than those from 2000 to 2004. This is the only group that has increased its average (apart from a 0.2 average race increase for the Breeders Bowl Juvy winners).
In summary, it may not be just the winning Breeders Bowl horses that are following this trend and we cannot therefore say that winners race less than losing horses. We can however state that over-racing a horse before the Breeders Bowl looks as if it will inhibit a horses chances of winning the race in recent times.
BREEDERS BOWL CLASSIC
As can been seen above, the overall data suggests that almost half (46.2%) of the winners of the Breeders Bowl Classic over the thirteen years of the race have been three year olds. However in the past six years, three year olds (33.3%) have been less successful than four year olds (50%).
The graph above illustrates that most winners of the Breeders Bowl Classic come through a G1 race. From 1998 to 2010, seven of the thirteen winners (54%) came through a G1 to win compared with four of six winners (67%) from 2005 to 2010).
BREEDERS BOWL CLASSIC – ROLL OF HONOUR
RED = Won BB as favorite. * = LTO winner. GREEN = Multiple Winner
Storm Bird has sired two different winners
Storm Cat has dam-sired two different winners
BREEDERS BOWL DISTAFF
As can be seen above, in the thirteen years of running, most Breeders Bowl Distaff winners are three year olds with considerable contribution from both four and five year olds and a win from a six year old. In the last six years, 50% of the wins (three in six) has come from three year olds. Two wins have come from four year olds and just the one win to a five year old.
The trend of a G1 lead in has not continued in the Distaff with more Breeders Bowl winners coming through a G2 race than G1. Interestingly though, in the past six years, trainers are opting for a G1 lead in rather than G2 whilst all are still not running a G3 lead in.
BREEDERS BOWL DISTAFF – ROLL OF HONOUR
RED = Won BB as favorite * = LTO winner.
A.P. Indy has sired a massive four individual winners
Summer Squall has sired two individual winners
Nijinsky II has dam-sired two individual winners
BREEDERS BOWL SPRINT
A much more balanced spread of ages over the thirteen years. Maybe a sign of older horses being able to maintain the brilliance bred into them compared with horses that attempt to maintain more classic or professional tendencies.
Interesting that both distributions are tending toward either a G1 or ungraded stakes lead in for both year range measures.
BREEDERS BOWL SPRINT – ROLL OF HONOUR
RED = Won BB as favorite. * = LTO winner. GREEN = Multiple
Storm Cat has sired two individual winners
Mr. Prospector has dam-sired three individual winners
BREEDERS BOWL MARATHON – ROLL OF HONOUR
* = LTO winner
BREEDERS BOWL DIRT MILE – ROLL OF HONOUR
* = LTO winner
BREEDERS BOWL MARE SPRINT – ROLL OF HONOUR
* = LTO winner. GREEN = Multiple
BREEDERS BOWL JUVY
A definite push towards the top level for these newbies could be a push for stakes points to break into the field?
BREEDERS BOWL JUVY – ROLL OF HONOUR
RED = Won BB as favorite. * = LTO winner.
BREEDERS BOWL JUVY FILLY
Again a distribution towards the top however also some allowances and ungraded stakes maybe from fillies that were ultra-dominant early?
BREEDERS BOWL JUVY FILLY – ROLL OF HONOUR
RED = Won BB as favorite. * = LTO winner
BREEDERS BOWL TURF
Interestingly, only three and four year olds have won the past six years. Some of this three year old crop that have etched their names on this race have not only done so on the Breeders Bowl Turf but will forever be immortalised as sim legends. They are Horseshoe Bay, Allied Assault and although winning seven years ago, no one will forget Sunnybank Memorial. I would have personally thought that horses four, five and six years old would have the edge of younger, less mature horses at 12f?
A definite trend in overall data – heavily influenced by data from the last six years in which all six winners have raced at G1 level last time out before the Breeders Bowl. The last three have all won this race at double figure odds.
BREEDERS BOWL TURF – ROLL OF HONOUR
RED = Won BB as favorite. * = LTO winner. GREEN = Multiple
Kingmambo has dam-sired two individual winners
BREEDERS BOWL TURF DISTAFF
More of what I would expect with a turf route race with a greater distribution toward four and five year old horses.
Very much a trend towards the higher end. Seven of thirteen winning mares have come through a G1 race into the Breeders Bowl Turf Distaff.
BREEDERS BOWL TURF DISTAFF – ROLL OF HONOUR
RED = Won BB as favorite. * = LTO winner. GREEN = Multiple
Kris S. has sired two individual winners
Sadler’s Wells has dam-sired two individual winners
BREEDERS BOWL MILE
A very even spread of winners over the last thirteen years including two seven-year-olds in 2000 and 2001.
Predominantly G1 and G2 races over last six years. Would have been a very even spread if the trend of the first seven years had continued over the last six.
BREEDERS BOWL MILE – ROLL OF HONOUR
RED = Won BB as favorite. * = LTO winner. GREEN = Multiple
Fappiano has dam-sired two individual winners
BREEDERS BOWL TURF SPRINT– ROLL OF HONOUR
RED = Won BB as favorite. * = LTO winner. GREEN = Multiple
Storm Cat has dam-sired two individual winners
BREEDERS BOWL JUVY TURF
Very even spread over the eleven years of the race. More of a tendency lately to go to a G1 before the Breeders Bowl.
BREEDERS BOWL JUVY TURF – ROLL OF HONOUR
RED = Won BB as favorite. * = LTO winner
Kingmambo has dam-sired two individual winners
BREEDERS BOWL JUVY TURF FILLY
The only category in which ungraded stakes races pre Breeders Bowl is the favored path. Could this be why no filly has won as a favorite or is it trainers testing their fillies at the step up in distance at an easier level?
BREEDERS BOWL JUVY TURF FILLY – ROLL OF HONOUR
* = LTO winner
Forty Niner has dam-sired two individual winners
BREEDING RESULTS
Looking for that special winning combination? Below is a list of combinations that have multiple individual winners.
Most winning combinations of individual winners:
Storm Cat X Mr. Prospector (3)
3yo colt Gatling Prospector (1999 BB Classic)
4yo horse Mr Toms River NJ (2008 BB Sprint)
5yo horse Superman (2009 BB Sprint)
A.P Indy X Sadler’s Wells (2)
3yo colt Sunnybank Memorial (2004 BB Turf)
5yo mare Skidmore Indy (2010 BB Distaff)
Montjeu X Kingmambo (2)
4yo mare Mon Coup (2008 BB Turf Distaff)
3yo colt Seventh Sense (2010 BB Turf)
As would be expected, these combinations will cost you some serious credits or BP’s. Storm Cat X Mr. Prospector looks a lethal combination. A very versatile combination (as would be expected) is A.P. Indy X Sadler’s Wells with the Distaff at 9f and a Turf at 12f – what else would you expect from two routing champs from opposite ends of the spectrum. The final winning combination is a turf routing dream with the champ Montjeu and the legend Kingmambo.
BREEDERS BOWL DIRT SIRES
A.P. Indy is the king when it comes to the Breeders Bowl and with a winner in the Marathon at 14f and four winners in the Distaff at 9f he is certainly a must have at some point when planning a Distaff, Classic or Marathon winner. His 96.8% runners / winners ratio in 2008 as a dirt router is testament to this and I for one may take an extra shift to get him at some point soon.
Giant’s Causeway has had four winners on dirt with the champ Casterly Rock providing him with back-to-back Sprint wins. He has also sired a Juvy colt and filly and although he is also a handy turf sire and can throw his hand to routing, he certainly has made his mark on dirt at Breeders Bowl time.
Storm Cat has, like his son Giant’s Causeway, sired four Breeders Bowl winners and in an uncanny set of circumstances, he too has back-to-back Sprint wins with Mr Toms River NJ in 2008 then with Superman in 2009. He too has a Juvy winner and also has a Classic winner.
Seeking The Gold is another four time sire champ with a Classic winner, a Juvy filly winner and went back to back in the newly made Mare Sprint in 2008 and 2009 with Clark Country. With dirt routing stats like his, Clark Country looks one out of the box.
Storm Cat could just be the king of Breeders Bowl. Unstoppable at graded level and a true legend when Breeders Bowl comes around, he has set himself apart with back to back Classic wins in 2009 and 2010. He also has a Distaff win, a Sprint win (as well as the two as a sire), a Juvy win and to really cap things off, a Juvy filly win.
Mr. Prospector has three winners in the Sprint as a dam sire (as well as his one win as a sire), a Classic win and a Juvy filly win.
Nijinsky II (yes that’s right – the one you want to use in a Montjeu X Kingmambo X Nijinsky II sort of line up) is the turf routing dam-sire that has five wins on dirt in the Breeders Bowl. Two wins in the Distaff, back to back wins in the Sprint (because sometimes opposites attract) and a win in the Juvy Filly caps off a strange outcome…
When we think of turf sires and we think of the Breeders Bowl a few special sires come to mind. Years ago Nureyev was a hero, then came Sadler’s Wells. These days Montjeu stands up as the next to take the crown. All three have sired three individual Breeders Bowl winners. In 2008 sim progeny, Sadler’s Wells has the fifth most graded wins with Monjeu in tenth. In 2009 sim progeny, Montjeu has the second most graded wins and is only two wins from first spot. In 2010 he sits seventh, however with just one more graded win, he will catapult to forth spot.
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Kingmambo has a great record at Breeders Bowl Time. He has sired two turf winners and dam sired six winners – turf immortality… Fappiano may be one that I did not expect as the dam sire of five Breeders Bowl wins
As we can see from the bar graph above, the most successful Breeders Bowl sires in the last thirteen years reads like a who’s who of the sim sire world.
As was the case with the sires, the dam sire category features all the kings. Storm Cat has been involved in fifteen Breeders Bowl wins either as the sire of dam sire and Sadler’s Wells has ten.
Well that’s it folks. In summary, a whole lot of information, stats, graphs and discussion – that’s all I have!!!
Lado