Three Year-Olds Trying Their Luck Versus Elders
#1 BJ’s Prayer 5-1 (Rock Hard Ten) has the rail and all the better, since the four year-old filly will be heading straight for the lead. Led by seven at the second call last time out in the G1 Yolkshire Oaks… but collapsed in the stretch. She held that speed at 1 5/8m to win a Grade II event. That was her first graded title, though she’d placed in two other graded events prior at 10 and 11 furlongs.
#2 Getalodeome 7-1 (Pulpit) has just $310,000 in career earnings but annexed a Grade III event at 1 1/4m a year ago. One try at this distance was a success in an open allowance (SP 103, won by 4 ¼ lengths). Huge SP of 111 in last at 1 5/16m probably convinced connections to take a shot at the big leagues again, but this filly has never beaten older in a stakes race and has no stakes wins in 13 months. Dicey.
#3 Old Troubadour 16-1 (Awesome Again) comes off two straight listed stakes wins at the distance. 8-for-13 on the turf, this four year-old has dodged top competition for the most part, having won a series of CPU value restricted allowances before trying minor stakes competition (and small fields). No dodging here, as this move is very ambitious. She likes the distance but is a bit of an outsider against these as her SPs are a cut below.
#4 Tsunama 42-1 (A.P. Indy) is likely completely outclassed. She’s a three year-old making her fifth career start. To date, she’s beaten her kind at 7f vs. maidens, at 9f in N2L allowance company, and at 1 1/4m vs. three listed stakes rivals. First time vs. older, first time at the distance, first time in graded company, etc. Don’t hold your breath.
#5 Dynamics of War 10-1 (Dynaformer) could have been had for a $25,000 tag a year ago. On July 30 of this year, she won the G3 Giving Thanks going away at 16-1 odds (SP 110) at this distance. This is a classic late bloomer (how many horses lose two starter allowances yet win a graded stakes race less than a year later?) who is coming into her own. I like the way she’s been handled too… always given enough time to recover from a big effort. She’s off 7 weeks rest here. Dangerous at a price.
#6 Salvage Mission 6-1 (Hussonet) is just 5-for-23 and has never tried this distance. Recent closing efforts at 9.5 to 10.5 furlongs are somewhat encouraging – SPs ranging up to 108 – but this mare has no graded wins and this seems like quite a spot to try the classic turf distance for the first time.
#7 Inhuman Rampage 9/2 (Bernardini) would be 20-1 if the sim could process the difference between dirt and turf form. An accomplished main track marathoner, this six year-old mare has won $552k and took a Grade II event last year at this distance on a good dirt track. She certainly has talent on par with these. But while she has 33 dirt races she’s tried the turf just once, an 11th place finish as a three year-old. Her SP that day (83) was about 10 points below what you’d expect out of her under similar conditions on the dirt. So while it is difficult to draw a conclusion from one race, it is unlikely that she will be able to transfer her dirt ability to the grass. Avoid at this price.
#8 Dynawells 12-1 (A.P. Indy) is another three year-old trying her luck at the top level, but this one has reached a pinnacle of three year-old success and can’t be discounted entirely. In eight career starts she’s won $685k and has two graded titles (G1 French Diana, G2 Regina Elena) on her resume. Ran an SP of 101 in a third place effort in the G1 Irish Oaks in her only try going this long. This is a big step up, but I wouldn’t rule her out.
#9 Reinosa 21-1 (Monsun), also a three year-old, beat older in her last, a listed stakes win (11f, SP 109). But she was dusted in a G1 try vs. her contemporaries at this distance in June and probably doesn’t have what it takes to make this leap so soon.
#10 Perfect Drive 10-1 (Pleasantly Perfect) has won just $172k and was off the board in her only two stakes tries. She has had some success at 10 furlongs and ran an SP 106 at this distance in running second vs. allowance foes.
#11 Out of Spite 9/2 (Dynaformer) was an impressive winner last time out in the G1 Yolkshire Oaks (love it when a five year-old wins an Oaks) at this distance. SP was just 103 in that race, though she can do better (109 two back at 12f in running third). 13-for-27 lifetime on grass for a whopping $3.87M in earnings and a five-time graded stakes winner (two G1s) going long, Out of Spite is quite a mare. Late running style is not what I prefer at these long distances, but her class is undeniable.
#12 Red Torch 11-1 (Monsun) is 6-for-8 lifetime and is one of four sophomores in the field. She’s the real deal too, having won the 12f G1 Irish Oaks in style (3 ¼ lengths, SP 105) and the G3 Minerve at 13f by the same margin (SP 108). Like others in here, she’s a deep closer… and while I don’t like that at this distance, it hasn’t held her back so far. Chance at a price.
Selections: I’m going with the older ones here. The step from three year-old to open company gets larger the farther you run. And these waters are deep. I’ll tab Dynamics of War on top. I just like the pattern and she is coming into her own. Out of Spite is deservedly the favorite in here. BJ’s Prayer could steal this on the lead. Red Torch has an outside shot at victory, and if she pulls this out, she has to be in the conversation for champion three year-old filly.