Who Will Be This Year’s Champion?
Off to Ireland this weekend for the $1.5 million running of the Champion Stakes in Ireland. This 10 furlong turf race is open to three year olds and up the dirt track at a distance of 7 furlongs. This is the third year of running this race.
Last year, Principe De Viana (now retired) won the race as the favorite in a very competitive field of 9, where no horse went off at odds higher than 10-1. He won by three strides and a speed of 112.
In 2009, another field of 9 went to the post. This time, only one horse went off at odds higher than double digits, that being Push of a Button who won at 11-1and a speed of 108, by over two lengths.
Both winners had one thing in common….they raced just behind the leader. This year, we have a record sized field of 13 and the odds range from 5-1 up to 27-1. Will the favorite win this year…or will the longshot? Or will it be someone else?
1. Moon of My Life 19-1
This son of Dynaformer comes off his first graded start in the Whipping Boy (G2) where he nearly took the win at the highest odds of 13-1 in the field. He roared to a second place finish, picking up 13 lengths from the half to miss by ½ a length at the same time nailing a career best speed of 111. Moon of My Life switched to the grass earlier this year, and in 6 starts, has finished first or second each time. If you’re a believer, the 19-1 odds welcome a huge reward. He could very well be the one.
2. Hacker’s Manifesto 16-1
The one thing I didn’t mention with Moon of My Life was that the horse that beat him in the Whipping Boy was this horse, Hacker’s Manifesto. Usually taking a roll to run 2nd or 3rd early on, Hacker went straight to the front, pulled off by 5 by the half, and had just enough to get the win with a speed of 111. This was his first grade start in nearly a year. In this race, there are a few others that could set the pace, so I’m looking for him to settle back early on. The 111 was his career best speed, but my gut tells me he may have problems keeping the speed up.
3. Comeback Cat 5-1
It’s hard to believe that this horse was in a claiming race at this time last year. 2011 has been a tremendous year for Comeback Cat, a name that adequately fits this 5 year old. Exclusively racing the graded circuit this year, Comback has amassed 6 wins and finished third once in eight starts (all at 10f). Speeds have averaged 110 this season. He’s taken the Windy City Turf Classic, Movieland Turf Cup and Manha Manha Challenged, all G1’s in three of his last four starts. Looks like an Eclipse Award nominee to me and one who quite possibly can notch another G1 win this season.
4. Outback Rain 7-1
This son of A. P. Indy is still in pursuit of his first grade win. Outback Run has six consecutive races at the graded level with 3 seconds and 1 third. He has averaged a speed of 109 over this duration and most recently finished 2nd in the G1 Eclipsed rallying from some 10 lengths behind and coming up short by just under two. He’s got a good late run and keeps coming up short. An extra furlong or so may be the right thing, but he’s not getting that here.
5. Blakely 15-1
At the age of four, this capable son of Montjeu only started his racing career this year. In eight turf starts, he’s shown to be formidable with a record of 4-3-0. Blakely may now be at his desired racing distance as in June he won an allowance 9.5 furlong race with a career best SP of 113. He followed that up with a win in his first graded start, the Weld Stakes (G3) going 10 furlongs and a SP of 112. The distance seems to suit this guy who will run just a bit off the lead and he looks to be an upset factor.
6. Milk Inc 19-1
Sired by El Prado, Milk Inc is a developing and improving 4 year old. After breaking through the 100-speed barrier this past Spring, he set a personnel best speed of 111 in July winning 8.5f in an allowance event. He picked another win in August in the non-graded Isle of Revenge Turf Memorial with a Sp of 106. Milk bounces into this G1 race which I think may be too much at this time. No doubt he’s doing well, but I think another race or so at the non-graded level will help him out.
7. Potosi 9-1
Since 2009, Potosi has been in and out of graded races. This son of Mineshaft has one win with graded company, coming in July of 2009 in the Colonial Derby. He’s tried 12 times at this level, most recently in the Windy City Turf Classic where he finished well back after posing as a threat early on with a SP of 101. He finished behind several others in this race. Potosi will need to shake that race off. It’s been a long time since he won at this level and that doesn’t give the confidence you’d like to have.
8. Detox Poncho 7-1
With 11 wins in 23 career turf starts, Detox Poncho appears to be a formidable opponent in this race. Sired by Empire Maker, this horse is a late runner who has four wins this year with the G1 Kakarazuka Kinen Cup being the grand prize. He won this 11f event in June by a long neck and a speed of 114 showing off his late run ability by eating into the 15 length lead he spotted to the pace setter. Last month the best he could do was a forth in the Whipping Boy, behind winner Hacker’s Manifesto with a speed of 107. Detox is very capable of popping another speed over 110, which looks to be the mark for winning this race. One that’s easy to overlook but one may regret later for doing so.
9. Light Tripper 9-1
This 15-race winner out of Sadler’s Wells has been having a rough time getting into the winner’s circle at the graded level. Just a week under a year ago, Little Tripper won the G3 Challenge Cup with a speed of 112 which would end a streak of four consecutive grade wins and also be his last graded race victory. He’s had 5 other races since that race, finishing on the board twice, and wll off in the other three. Hard to get behind this one who may now be losing a step in his 6-year old stride.
10. King Kajinskyh 9-1
I have finally come across a horse sired by King Kamehameha that has won a graded race. I’ve never had much luck myself breeding with this sire, but King Kajinskyha seems to be the exception. He’s got two wins at this level, the first came last summer in the Colonial Derby. More recently, King won the G2 Kinsho Cho Classic with a career best of 114 and coming through at 11-1. He followed that up as the 5-2 favorite in the Weld Stakes by finishing well back and a speed of 101 and an ok forth in the Windy City Turf (108 speed). He doesn’t win many graded races (twice in 15 tries) and I’m not too excited with his outlook here.
11. Vancougar 27-1
At the age of three, Vancougar is the youngest entrant in this field. The son of Dynaformer has a turf record of 4-3-0 in 8 starts. In August, he put in a very sharp effort in the G1 Big Read Stakes, his first graded race. He established a career speed of 111 while finishing 2nd, picking up 8 strides late in the race to miss by two. Vancougar has been nursed upward in distance over the past few months and is capable at this distance. He may be a bit underrated with odds at 27-1 and I think he’ll do fine with the older horses.
12. Outer Haven 5-1
Outer Haven is having a banner this year. Racing exclusively at 10 furlongs, and sired by Mineshaft, he has a 2011 record of 5-0-2 in 8 starts. He has four graded wins this season, with speeds ranging from 111 up to 116 which include the Chicago Handicap, Singapore Cup, Amrosia and Victoria Cup. In his last start, the Windy City Turf Classic, he finished third with SP of 110. He’s a front runner, and I don’t feel there’s a lot of serious pace setters in this field, and he’ll have a good chance to get out front early. One who should be respected in this race.
13. Moskovskaya 7-1
Since September last year, Moskovskaya has picked up a purse check in each of his starts, all of which have been graded races. That’s a total of 11 races with a record of 3-2-3 (with a pair of forths and a fifth) The three wins came in the Cities Cup, Pennsylvania Handicap with the most recent in July in the Bayside Triumph. The Bayside sported his highest speed of 114 where he ran third, a good 7 back at the midway point and running off to a three length win. In his last start, the Windy City Turf Classic, he ran a flat fifth throughout the race and charted a 107. Could cash in another check in this race.
A good field with some longshots that have a game opportunity to pull off the upset. Comeback Cat is having a hell of a year and looks like the “Comeback Kid”. Stay on this train until he gets derailed.
Outer Haven is also having a terrific year, so we’ll board this train as the second choice.
For the first time, I’m throwing in a handful of third choices to use with top two in exotic wagers: Moon of My Life (great effort in last, may carry into this race), Blakely (off two very sharp efforts), Detox Poncho (last was ok, but dangerous if returns to form of two previous races), Vancougar (been improving lately, don’t discount) and Moskovskaya (very consistent).