The Winston Spa

N1, Race ID 4785.7808 : The Winston Spa Grade II   Fillies and mares, 3 years old and up, A mile and one sixteenth on the Firm Turf Course, Purse : $200,000

PP 1 – 5/1 SPECTRAL STORM(KY) ID# 26162  D Brennan ( 103 – 9 – 11 – 14 – 9%)

Bred from a “G” rated he-mare Spectral Storm has certainly clicked in her last two races winning two listed stakes races. This lightly raced 4yo filly wasn’t close to her 2010 top of 107. In her next 5 races she posted 5 sub-100 figures but freshened up and shortening up after a longer graded stake try seemed to do the trick. She posted a 108 followed up by a 110 winning her last two races. Those figures put her in the mix for the top spot.

PP 2 – 5/1 FLEETWOOD LEETA(KY) ID# 181867 C Short ( 83 – 4 – 10 – 7 – 5% )

Fleetwood is keeping the name alive with all descendants of “F” rated mare Seattle Within Sea having the name Fleetwood in it. This has worked 3 of 7 times as the mare has produced 3 graded winners with Leeta being one of the 3. Leeta won back to back graded races early on in her 3yo year and since those wins hasn’t been successful in her graded attempts finishing off the board in her 4 graded starts. Recent form is fine with 2 wins but they aren’t particularly fast or vs. great company. Ran a 114 5 back but hasn’t been close to that top since then so I’ll consider that race an outlier and prefer others.

PP 3 – 21/1 FIFTY YARD BOMB(KY) ID# 75388 R Radzinski ( 528 – 76 – 85 – 85 – 14% )  

The Oakland Raiders take a 7-0 lead on a Fifty Yard Bomb from Campbell to Ford on the opening play to start the NFL season. This filly has me ready for some football! Bred from and “F” mare she has yet to crack triple digit speed figures and is facing elders for the first time. Aside from a hunch play for the name this filly looks overmatched in this field.

PP 4 – 16/1 LAWABIDING SONG(KY) ID# 14795  S Hommell (284 – 35 – 30 – 30 – 12%)

Lawabiding Song is one of those surface confused horses that no trainer likes to have. Out of an “F” mare, she started her career on dirt and won a couple of races then switched to turf and won a race. After a couple more starts on turf she switched back to dirt and subsequently tried turf again, dirt again and now back on turf for this race. It seems like she didn’t appreciate the 16f distance in her last race, which was on dirt and was eased up finishing next to last. I’m not sure which surface she likes best but I’m thinking anything over 10f might be too long for this filly and I’m thinking 8.5f might be a little too short.

Out of an “E” mare, Pyrgomache comes into this race off a win on firm going. Before that win her 3 previous races were on good or yielding courses which she didn’t seem to appreciate. If we toss those 3 races out she has 4 wins in her last 5 starts, all stakes wins with 2 of them graded stakes. Though, all those wins came at a distance of 9f and today’s race is at 8.5f so it’s possible that this may not be her optimal distance but a ½ furlong difference shouldn’t be the end of the world. Also, enters this race on 2 just weeks rest.

PP 6 – 2/1 HARMFUL ENERGY(IRE) ID# 191977  Z Ayya (594 – 153 – 121 – 89 -26%)

The favorite in this race, Harmful Energy is out of a “G” mare and stretching out to 8.5f for this race after three sprints at 7f. Her 4 previous tries at distances over 8f have resulted in just one on the board finish. She comes into this race with good form, fast races and nice rest but I cannot endorse this filly with the extra distance.

PP 7 – 19/1 MY PLACE OR YOUR’S(KY) ID# 180210   C Orza ( 490 – 80 – 101 – 67 – 16% )

First scratch bred of the field, My Place or Your’s is a nicely bred lightly raced filly coming into this race off just 8 starts. Her last 5 starts have been on turf after starting her career on dirt. She hasn’t finished worse than second in her turf starts but she has only been facing allowance NWL conditions and short fields. Certainly has room to improve and could be a nice filly down the road but these fillies might be a little bit faster today.

PP 8 – 7/2 GOLDBUG(KY) ID# 109105   E Holsclaw  ( 149 – 24 – 13 – 16 – 16% )

Goldbug is out of an “H” mare and the oldest and only 5yo in this field. It looks like she was bred as a late 3yo and therefore doesn’t have that many starts for a 5yo. She is a stakes winner and still in search of that elusive graded stakes win. She ran a nice race last time out which was her first attempt at 9f finishing only 2 ¼ lengths back in 4^th . She finished 2^nd at 8.5f two starts back with a top of 112 so distance shouldn’t be a problem for this mare. Looks to contend for the top placing.

Out of “G” mare that has been around the block with 8 different owners, Uno Slew is the last horse entered in this field of nine. She comes into the race with two straight wins as the controlling speed against allowance company at 8f on the turf. She started her career on dirt and moved to turf after her 12^th race on dirt. Her debut on turf was an eye-opener running a 104 late in her 3yo year and she followed that up with a 109. She never quite matched those speed figures again until just recently running a 105 in her last start. Not a lot of speed in the race so she will try to take this field gate to wire.

Handicapper’s Picks:

Started off liking #1 SPECTRAL STORM and none of the other ladies in the field made me change my mind. She should get a decent trip with the cutback in distance rating behind the speed and taking over late to get up for the win. In 2^nd I will take #8 GOLDBUG, another mare that should be rating just off the pace. My selection for 3^rd can easily wire the field without any pressure but I’m thinking 8.5f will be just a tad too long and she will weaken in the end. For 3^rd #9 Uno Slew.

1^st: 1

2^nd: 8

3^rd: 9