Virginia hosts stakes doubleheader

The ladies take the track for the first half of this week’s doubleheader, a dash for cash in the Ross Point Turf Mare Challenge.  The race is for fillies and mares, three years and older, over five and a half furlongs of turf.  Weather experts says we will stay dry for at least the length of the race card, and the turf is rated as firm for the event.  The race drew three fillies from outside the area, with the fourth spot being filled by the Virginia horse pool.  Oddsmakers have chosen and overwhelming favorite at 1/5 pretty much calling the rest also rans at odds between 4/1 and 6/1 on the morning line.

PP 1) Stillout(VEN)  Sired by Event Of The Year, Trained by lookout.  Stillout is the baby of the field, a three year old filly, running in her eleventh career start.  This is her third try in stakes company and she’s still looking for her first win, having had to settle for second in both of her first two, by less than half a length total.  In her first ten starts, she boasts a record of 5-2-1-0-0 with a top speed figure of 96.6 earned last time out.  That run was a six furlong stakes in Kansas, where she was pressing hard before running out of ground, settling for second, a quarter length out.  After a somewhat lackluster debut on dirt, she switched to the grass, and has never looked back, finishing out of the top three only once in her next nine.  She looked to be slightly injured in that start, but her trainer is remaining mum on that score.  This will be her shortest start to date, but she has performed quite well in the six furlong range, with four wins and two places in seven tries.  She likes to start just off the pace, and the field sets up well for her running style here.  Her average speeds aren’t the strongest in this field, but that could be deceiving, as she has steadily been improving all season.  If the early speed battle takes its toll here, she coud be poised to surprise late.

PP 2) Jolly Green Gold(KY)  Sired by Bernardini, Trained by iant4.  Jolly Green Gold is a four year old filly, who in her twenty fourth career start here is the oddsmakers’ choice to make her way into the winner’s circle.  This will be only her second try in stakes company and she is hopoing to notch her first stakes win here.  In her last ten starts, she has a 3-1-1-3-0 record, showcasing a best speed of 104.4 in her last start. The race was a six and a half furlong open allowance right here in Virginia, where she gave up a big cushion down the stretch, finishing second by just shy of a length.  She gave dirt her best shot in her first three starts, but with a switch to turf in her fourth she showed a strong affinity for the grass.  She has stretched out as far as nine furlongs, but the shorter sprint has been her strong suit, with six wins and eleven top three finishes in fifteen tries.  She’s a speedball that prefers the view from the front of the pack, relying on a big cushion to hold her down the stretch.  She faces a possible early challenge from a real wildcard to the outside, who, if she takes to the turf, could force a blazing early pace.  If she can shake off the early challenge, she could walk away with this one with the speed that she has been showing.  But she is pressed too hard, too early she could be vunerable to the closers.

PP 3) Convex Wave(CA)  Sired by Surf Cat, Trained by lglong2oyz.  Convex Wave Is a well run four year old filly, taking her twenty ninth trip in this race.  This will be her first try in stakes, after spending most of the last two seasons in the claiming and starter ranks.  She’s done well there, piling up a 3-4-2-0-0 record, with a top speed of 98.9 earned earlier this season.  Her last start was an A1x here in Virginia where she ran a near perfect race in a short field, winning by a solid two and a half lengths.  All but three career starts have been on turf, and she shows a marked preference for the surface.  She likes to run from the back half of the pack, and her close has been quite consistent, though she has not faced this level of competition.  She has shown some good speed numbers, but has been somewhat inconsistent, especially recently.  With the short race and some excellent early speed here, it’s going to be hard to close enough down the stretch to bring this one home.

PP 4) Mugglesworth(CA)  Sired by Sea Of Secrets, Trained by Virginia Horse Pool.  Mugglesworth is a seven year old mare, coming off a long rest to make her sixtieth career start here.  This will be her first stakes start since early in her two year season, and she’s looking for her first stakes win.  She is 1-0-0-2-1 in her last ten, with a top speed of 91.1 four starts back.  Her last run was a mid level claim back in May, where she just seemed to fall apart down the stretch, giving up a big lead in the second half to finish sixth, eight and a half lengths out.  She’s never run on the turf, making her a real wild card here.  She’s a front runner, but she has been had trouble holding a lead recently.  She showed some excellents speeds earlier in her career, but seems to have lost a step and then some over the past couple seasons.  In a real way she’s a key factor here.  If she takes to the turf and presses the pace hard early, she could open the door to the closers late.

The second half of this week’s double header showcases three year old colts, in the Abe Hollandia Turf Mile.  As you might have guessed from the name, this race for three year old colts runs over a mile of turf.  The race draws a well matched field of six colts, ranging in odds from 2/1 to 7/1, with no lack of stakes experience in the group.  Could make for quite an exciting race for our Virginia race fans.

PP 1) Cry For Gold(KY)  Sired by Medaglia D’oro, Trained by liddles21.  Cry For Gold takes the gate for his fifteenth career start here.  He’s no stranger to stakes competition, with half his starts coming in stakes competition and two wins to show for it.  In his last ten starts he has gone 4-1-0-1-0 with a top speed figure of 101.3 earned earlier this season.  His last run was a nine furlong A1t on dirt, where he trailed a short field home by fourteen legnths.   He has shown a certain amount of surface versatility, but the turf has been the real money maker for him.  All but two of his starts have been routes, and in general he seems to prefer about a furlong more than he has here.  He’s a deep closer, but his close has ranged from good to nonexistent, with not much consistency.  His best recent runs have come with a slow early pace in a field of closers.  The pace in this field is well distributed, and his close has not been consistent enough for me to put money on him here.

PP 2) Graxis(IRE)  Sired by Galileo(IRE), Trained by piccolo87.  Graxis will make his tenth career start here.  He’s run three times against stakes competition, but is still looking for that elusive first win at this level.  He’s 4-0-3-2-0 in his first nine, with a top speed of 100.4 three starts back.  His last start was an eight and a half furlong A4x on dirt, where he never seemed to find his legs, finsihing fourth by eight and a half lengths.  He returns to the turf here, after a couple dirt starts, perhaps in an attempt to shake him up.  The mile has been his race, and he has a high comfort level here.  He’s a deep closer, and he started this season on fire closing from any position in the field.  Over his past few though, with one exception, while still consistent his close just hasn’t been able to get him home, whether he was six or twelve legths out at the half.  A return to his preferred surface and distance benefits him here, but he’s going to need a serious return to his from of earlier this season to be a real threat here.

PP 3) Tapit Gold(KY)  Sired by Tapit, Trained by abe.  Tapit Gold faces start number ten here.  He made his first stakes start last time out.  His first nine have netted him a 2-1-0-0-1 record with a top speed figure of 107.0 coming two starts back.  His last race was a ten furlong stakes in Minnesota, where he nabbed second in a short field, three and a half lengths out.  After spending his early career on dirt, where is somewhat averages performances eevntually landing him in a claim, a switch to turf under his new trainer seemed to cause him to blossom.  Another factor that may have contributed to his increased performance was a boost in distance, showing good form from a mile to a mile and a quarter.  He likes to close from mid pack, and in his first two turf starts that close was stellar, stumbling only in his last with increased distance and a slower early pace.  The field should set up much better for him here, and the drop in distance may help as well.  Could be threatening late.

PP 4) Lucky’s Pivot Foot(GB)  Sired by Pivotal(GB), Trained by mrlucky229.  Lucky’s Pivot Foot races for the twelvth time in this race.  This will be his first try at stakes level.  He brings a record of 3-4-1-2-0 to the table from his first eleven, with a top speed of 109.8 two starts back.  His last run was an A4L at eight and a half furlongs, where she gave up a big lead down the stretch to settle for second by three lengths.  Outside from a couple of test tries on dirt, he’s been a pure turfer.  He’s a very fast starter and generally relies on a big cushion to protect him down the stretch.  This has worked fairly well for him.  He shouldn’t have a problem breaking out early in this field without much challenge to his early break.  His back to back 100+ speeds are some of the best in the field, and if he builds enough of a cushion and duplicates these speeds, he could be hard to catch here.

PP 5) Closing Clash(GB)  Sired by Medicean(GB), Trained by risktaker.  Closing Clash is a veteran of eighteen previous career start.  He earns his first try against stakes competition here.  He posted a record of 3-3-2-1-0, capping his speeds with a 101.8 two starts back.  His last run was an A4y at this distance on an off track in Pennsylvania, where he put forth a decent effort, but only managed sixth place, six and a quarter out.  After spending a good portion of his career on dirt, he switched to turf early this year, and it paid immediate dividends in both speed and earnings.  This distance appears to be near the top side of his range, but he has a win and two places in four starts at this distance range.  He likes to bide his time in the mid pack, and has shown a good second half push.  His speeds are in the top half of this group, but the real speed in the field is sharing the same running style.  He’s going to need the race of his career to bring this one home, but he should be right there in the mix.

PP 6) Giant Ghost(KY)  Sired by Ghostzapper, Trained by ninerdust.  Giant Ghost makes start number sixteen in this race.  He’s certainly no stranger to stakes company, with over half of his starts in stakes up to grade one, and he has a pair of grade three wins under his belt.  In his last ten he has gone 4-1-1-1-2, with a best speed figure of 104.7 two starts back.  His last start was a nine furlong stakes in Eastern Kentucky where he settled for a fairly long out fifth, never seeming to find his stride.  After beginning his career on dirt, he switched to turf and won four of his next five starts.  He’s specialized in the eight to nine furlong range and is quite comfortable at this distance.  He is another mid pack breaker in this pack but can chaleenge the lead early if he needs to do so.  He’s been consistently running high 90s, but I think his odds here are based more here on his graded wins than on blazing speed.  His experience will hold him in good stead here, but I think he will need to step up his speed, which he has shown he is capable of, to land in the winner’s circle here