Spotlight Race-By Request
Not a good outcome with my selections last weekend. Street John, who got my blessings to win the Spotlight race, finished forth and had nothing to offer, despite showing a liking for the distance. Your Warning rallied from near the rear of the field to win, my only salvation is that he was my second pick. T Rex also rallied from last to get second, marking a very successful return to the dirt. Dancetothefinish put in a lukewarm effort, still good enough for third. I went with Best Bluff, who I thought would have an easy time setting the pace. Wrong….he hooked up with Opgoedgeluk in a speed battle which burnt him badly and a last place finish.
Time to focus on improvement. But before we do that, a race needs to be selected. This week, I decided to open the race selection to the public. On the bulletin board, I posted a message soliciting suggestions for race coverage for this week. I decided what the heck, let those who don’t get to see their horses in print have a better opportunity to achieve this.
The feedback wasn’t what I expected . While there were over 70+ views of the posting as I sit here writing the article, only one suggestion was made. If anything, that makes the selection process a whole heck easier for me. So here we go…Skunkbarn, you got your wish! The suggestion was to cover a maiden two year old race. These races are often difficult to handicap because of limited or no race history (first time starters) for the entrants and get virtually no coverage.
With that said, we are looking at a 2-year old maiden special weight race, the second race on the card for Victoria. It is a bidrace for trainer Jonsnow and a full field of 14 will be competing in a turf race going a distance of one mile. Got a little bit of luck as each of the starters have already appeared in a race, so no first time starters….not sure if it’ll help me much, but here we go!!
1. Dancing Danzing 8-1 -Horse is third bred from game-dam Cahir Star, who’s runners have won 21 of 86 races, just under 25%. He has two starts, both in July and at 6f. Each time he ran near the front and tailed off at the end. Sire leans towards grass, but dam sire and dds tend towards the dirt. Extends in distance and he’s had troubles staying close in sprints after running near lead, doesn’t look like this will work well in longer distance. Also not liking three races in two month time for 2 year old, maybe too much for young one. Perhaps change in strategy may work.
2. What is the Truth 12-1-First offspring for game-dam Conspiracist. Breeding line looks good for distance running as well as the turf. Came close to breaking maiden in last start at 6.5f closing under two strides of winner with SP of 76. He shows some decent closing speed and the extra distance doesn’t look like it will hurt. Odds offer potential rewards.
3. Idylic 7-1-Blushing Groom is the dam-sire who has strong % of stake winners….2010=19%, 2008=17%, 2007=23%. Sire Dylan Thomas offspring love the grass and the pedigree are good to go in longer races. Idylic has one 6f start finishing well back after an early challenge. My guess is that it may be a bit too soon to push the mile route for this one.
4. Drogo 5-1-First runner out of game dam Wicked Wench (grade-A). Sired by second-year Sea the Stars, who has seen 80% of her 2010 crop win at least one race and 50% of this year’s crop visit the winners circle. This guy is a slow starter but shows some late run, finishing third in his two starts, most recently a SP of 77 running 7 furlongs. Adds another furlong with hopes the extra running distance will make the difference. It definitely could in this outing.
5. Mind of Evil 8-1-Game-dam Mama Robe has been very busy spawning nine horses since 2002. With a combined 260+ starts, the group has won 37 races, not an outstanding overall percentage. However, first year sire Harbiner has seen 38% of the 2011 crop already win a race this season. –This one may have a slight advantage as he’s already got a pair of starts at a mile, with a third and a second at the end of July, missing by under a length and a speed of 72. Has been improving with each start and just a matter of time…and this may be the time.
6. Yeppoon 9-1-First offspring of game-dam Airlie Beach who is sired by Medican and is a nicely bred colt who looks well suited for the grass. In May, he finished a game second running 5.5 furlongs with a decent speed of 62. In July, he improved that slightly to 65 running a flat 6th at a distance of 7.5 furlongs. That may have been a little too much and may be a sign that he needs a little more time to develop. Although he goes a smidge more this time, it still may be a stretch for this guy who has potential.
7. Vhaghar 4-1 –Trainer Jonsnow, who sponsors this race has entered this colt who is bred from game-dam Mother of Dragon. Despite being rated as a Grade E game-dam, Mother of Dragons has 7 offspring, all who have won stake or graded races with the exception of this horse, who obviously has high standards to meet. The breeding line is very well set and this colt will be making his second career start. He battled for the lead in his debut at 6.5 furlongs as the 2-1 favorite and wore down late, finishing fifth with a SP of 65. He stretches out to the mile and I’m a bit concerned about doing this so soon. Nonetheless, it does look like he could have a heck of a career ahead of him.
8. Purposal 32-1-Is the first bred horse out of game-dam Just Maybe Today. Second year sire Mastercraftsman hasn’t seen a lot of success with the 2011 offspring as only 22% have won a race this season. Purposal has two starts thus far, one on grass and the other on dirt. Neither has resulted in anything to brag about, finishing near the rear in each start. Returns to turf and takes a shot going longer distance off the 6.5f in last race which looks to be an effort to find the right distance for this runner. Hard to get behind.
9. Puhoi Craftsman 34-1-The first bred horse out of game-dam Noir’s Bend and like Purposal above, is also sired by Mastercraftsman. This one started off roughly back in February with a poor effort at 5f and a speed of 54. The SP improved slightly in April to 56, again at 5f. In early July, he was pushed to a distance of a mile with a much better SP of 65 while finishing fifth. Improvement in last was nice but he’ll need to booster it much more in this race which seems unlikely.
10. Puhoi Barn 35-1-Game-dam Beautiful Machine sees her first bred horse run in this race. Sire Turffontein has been used over the past two years and has 70 offspring with only 20% having any wins. This one is stuck in fifth gear. With three career races, each one resulted in a fifth place finish. His speeds have improved from 55 to 65 in his last start at 7 furlongs. Stretches out another furlong and seems to move up slightly in the late stages of the race, but really needs to improve that late step to win this one.
11. Recondite 18-1-The one and only horse based on game-dam Pink’s Dilemma has a very strong turf breadingline which includes sire Dynaformer. He made a lackluster debut in May finishing off the board on the grass running 6f with a SP of 58. After that effort, he returned in early July moving to the dirt and going 7f with another dismal outing and a drop in speed. He comes back to the turf, where the breeding looks favorable and tires to go a little further. This one may need some time to develop and may just have to wait it out until he gets his act together.
12. Ozzzy Royal 15-1-Impacto Boricua is the game-dam and this colt is the only horse that has been spun off thus far. The breedingline strongly supports turf runners with sire Royal Academy supported by Dam-sire Deep Impact and DDS El Prado. With that said, Ozzzy has struggled through two career starts. In June, he finished 3rd going 5.5 furlongs as the second choice at 6-5 against a small 5-horse field. A month later he added a furlong and finished further back, both races with speeds in mid 50’s. Bred for distance runs and stretches out but may need more rest between races at this young age.
13. Port Opus 46-1-Game-dam Stra Harbor has her second child running in this race. The sire, T. M. Opera O has not had great success in breeding as only 33% of 2010 and 20% of this year’s offspring have found victory. Unfortunately, Port Opus looks to be one of the runts of the litter. With two starts, one on each of grass and dirt, he’s posted speeds sub-50 and finished at the backend of each race. Would be a huge upset if he crosses the wire first.
14. Transcend 5-1-Transcend is the first born horse to game-dam Ascendant. He’s got a nice grass/distance breeding line featuring Tanino Gimlet as the sire. He’s made to trips to the starting gate, both in July, running distances of 7f and a mile. Although he was off the board in both trips, he did hit speeds of 70 and 74. I think this horse will have a nice career ahead of him. Only concern is the quick three races in about 9 weeks time.
Two year olds can be very unpredictable but I’ll try to predict the outcome. Going with Drogo as top pick who had nice improvement in last with speed numbers.
What is the Truth comes off nice effort and the extra distance should be beneficial.
Mind of Evil just missed at mile in last, could cash in with a price.