Distaff Sprinters Chase Grade I Glory
Three winners of a million dollars each – Smoked Ya, Lucky Destiny, and Shimmerstrike – provide the star power to a wide open Grade I Nutcracker in Upper New York. The distaffers are set to go seven furlongs on the fast main track.
#1 Smoked Ya 4-1 (Awesome Again) has won 14 of 24 sprint tries for nearly $1.3M lifetime; the six year-old made all the running to deep stretch in the G1 Princess Looney last time out down in Florida before fading to sixth. She’s won six races in the last 12 months, and has won six graded stakes titles lifetime, including a G1 score at this distance in December. Front runner seems to prefer 6.5 to 7 panels, where the pace seems a bit more manageable. Big chance in here.
#2 Will Conquer 5-1 (Bernardini) is 13 of 25 in sprints but hasn’t won a graded stakes race in nearly 18 months. A solid stakes performer for sure, she still appears a bit below the grade here, no pun intended. Last few tries at this distance haven’t been up to snuff and she appears to prefer to go shorter.
#3 Years Gone By 13-1 (Rahy) is a new shooter around these parts but she is very promising. Four year-old made her stakes debut in a stunning win at 33-1 in the G3 Ferry Dust in May in Iowa. The SP was an impressive 110. Her win that day came when she rallied from ninth to get up by a head. Versatile filly closed to miss by a length next out in the G1 Princess Looney and then nearly went wire-to-wire in a G2 race last time out. She’s never tried this distance, but she is for real. Look out.
#4 Kumite 9-1 (Distorted Humor) is basically a router on the turnback; she specializes in races at a mile and 7.5f. Annexed a minor stakes last time out but has basically been running in conditioned allowances for mares five years-old and up for some time. Will press the pace.
#5 Lucky Destiny 7-1 (War Chant) has won $1.4M lifetime but has mainly been finding her success in the classified allowance ranks of late. A good fifth in the Breeders’ Bowl last fall. Almost certain to be within two SPs of 107 at this distance given recent form at 7f.
#6 Dynaready 6-1 (Dynaformer) turns back from a dull effort at 1 1/6m, but was second three back at that same distance in the G1 Steadhemp downstate. Second place effort two back at 7f in G2 company fits here (SP 110). Will add to the early pace and may have the right style here.
#7 Lake Haack 13-1 (Encosta de Lago) is one of two Australian-bred entries in here. This five year-old mare has won a maiden claimer, two claimers vs. winners, and three starter allowances in her career. She became a stakes winner for the first time in her last effort, a listed win at 6f. Popped a 111 SP in an N2x allowance win last September, but she’d be a surprise in this spot.
#8 Fefifofum 34-1 (Awesome Again) is a three year-old who has never won a dirt sprint, has never beaten older, and has never won a graded stakes race. She’s in over her head.
#9 Eclipse Failure 26-1 (Unbridled’s Song) is a three year-old dipping her hooves into top flight company… but she might be up to her knees in it here. She was a good second in the G1 Exam at this distance, but that was a race restricted to sophomore fillies. Now she’s in with the upperclasswomen and they can be nasty. She’s only topped 100 SP once and she has only one stakes win to her credit. Wait and see.
#10 Atia 10-1 (Smart Strike) is presumably named after a character from one of my all-time favorite shows, Rome, not that that is incredibly relevant. In 21 races she’s only won $129k, which isn’t exactly Grade I material. She won a minor stakes race at this distance last time out – her first stakes win – but I don’t think that necessarily qualifies her for honors here.
#11 Shimmerstrike 6-1 (Smart Strike), like many in here, has won more than half of her sprint tries, and has won over $1M lifetime… was a hard-charging runner-up in the Princess Looney, in which she came out of the clouds to just miss last time out. In spite of her great win record, she’s only captured one winner’s shares in the last six months, and that was in a 6.5f prep for this against lesser. Still, she beat 10 rivals that day, and she’s a Grade I winner at the distance. Last was razor sharp and with a return to her best trip she could be up in time.
#12 Found After Sought 8-1 (Dehere) is an Aussie-bred looking to shake a recent case of seconditis. She put up four straight runner-up efforts going from six to seven furlongs this spring, including a solid effort in the G2 Vagabond. Last couple efforts have been less than impressive, and this filly looks quite a way removed from a G3 win at six furlongs 14 months ago. This front-runner may not be able to make the lead; she failed to make the front in her last two graded tries as well.
Selections:
I can’t look past the big price on Years Gone By. She could be the real deal and at 13-1 you want to buy now, not after she’s established. Smoked Ya should be right there and deserves favorite status. Lucky Destiny and Dynaready are in with big chances each.