New Money Favored In Gr. 3 Cannon Gold Cup

South Africa is rolling out the red carpet this weekend for a 16-furlong marathon graded event on the turf that’s definitely not for the faint of heart.

It will be quite a marathon test indeed for this field of five set to go Saturday for the third running of the $100,000 Grade 3 Cannon Gold Cup.

With three listed under card stakes set to kick off a huge weekend of racing in South Africa, the Grade 3 Cannon Gold Cup is by far the biggest of all this Saturday.

Multiple graded stakes winner and multi-million dollar earner New Money is your 6/5 morning line favorite in this spot, but he’ll have some tough competition in South Africa this weekend from Kingstroem Wells and Bourbon Legend, both of whom should love this 16 furlong distance.

Then there’s the extremely impressive million dollar earner Centeo. Far From Ojai is also here, and he’s coming off a spectacular win at 16 furlongs in the Lock Edison Turf Stayer Stakes in the Czech Republic.

We present for the first time a new section of these previews we call “Aussie JD’s Mission Impossible Race Analysis.” It’s a program my husband J. D. Smith wrote that will try each week to predict how the field will shape up, at four different sections of the race. J. D. says the program is a work in progress. Give him three or four minutes to perfect it. I only started twisting his arm to do this last weekend, after all.

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AUSSIE J. D.’S MISSION IMPOSSIBLE

GRADE 3 CANNON GOLD CUP RACE ANALYSIS

Okay, here’s the first week of Mission Impossible. The current program is still a work in progress. Bit hard inputting horses with some 40-odd races, but here goes.

At The Jump And First Call:

We have five runners in this 16-furlong event–Bourbon Legend, Kingstroem Wells, Far From Ojai, New Money and Centeo. From the jump you can expect 6/5 favorite New Money and Kingstroem Wells to duel on the lead early, before Kingstroem Wells takes a narrow lead. Following just off the pace early, Bourbon Legend and Far From Ojai will settle behind those two, and Centeo will be the early trailer.

At The Second Call:

After running the first quarter at a decent clip, the field will head into the straight for the first time completing the first circuit with few significant changes.

At The Third Call:

Heading down the backstretch for the last time, New Money will take command over a tiring Kingstroem Wells, with the remaining three taking closer order approaching the final quarter.

At The Finish Line:

After the early duel with Kingstroem Wells, New Money will start to feel the pressure as the closers start to make their presence felt. Bourbon Legend will be moving up to second and Far From Ojai into third just behind him, as they pass a tired but willing Kingstroem Wells. Centeo will be continuing his sustained stretch run and will be just off the heels of Bourbon Legend and Far From Ojai. Into the final 400 metres, Bourbon Legend will call it a day, and Far From Ojai and Centeo will over-run New Money. After settling too far back early, Centeo won’t be doing quite enough to catch Far From Ojai, who proves too good for the fast-finishing Centeo.

1 – Far From Ojai

2 – Centeo

3 – New Money

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And now, here is the field for the running of the 16-furlong $100,000 Grade 3 Cannon Gold Cup on the turf course in South Africa.

1 — BOURBON LEGEND (KY) Owner: Desperado Stables (rollrcoast)

Odds: 6/1 (Lemon Drop Kid x S. Cannon x (Ela-Mana-Mou(Ire) x Kris S.))

Bourbon Legend comes into South Africa looking for his first graded win ever. He’s a four year old son of Lemon Drop Kid, and he’s only got 17 starts on his resume. He really doesn’t have a great deal of graded stakes experience. In fact, he’s only tried one graded stakes his entire career. But he’s still young, and in this long turf division, the big wins usually don’t come until much later. He has one stakes win on his resume, the 10-furlong ALE and SKITTLES Special in North Korea in July of last year. That was a pretty impressive win in that he broke the triple digit speed figure barrier for the first time in his career when he popped a 104 in that start. He’s only got four triple digit speed figure races in his 17 starts, but two of them were in his last two outings. He threw a 104 speed figure in a fourth place finish two starts back in Victoria, in the 14-furlong Final Fan Turf Stayer Stakes. And last time out, he popped a 102 speed figure in a second place finish in the 16-furlong Cuvee Redhead Turf Special in Queensland. He stayed close to the early pace in that one and actually had the lead 12 furlongs in, but ended up finishing second. Four of his six starts this year came at this 16-furlong distance he’ll see in South Africa Friday, and if his form this year has anything to do with it, expect a lot of early speed from this guy. He should be pushing New Money early on. He doesn’t have New Money’s speed figures, or class, but give this guy time. He might be one who’ll make some noise the next couple seasons in this long turf division.

2 — KINGSTROEM WELLS (AUS) Owner: Briant Breeding & Racing Empire (mickyb)

Odds: 9/1 (Elvstroem (AUS) x King Of Kings (IRE) x Sadler’s Wells))

Briant Breeding And Racing Empire will send this son of Elvstroem to South Africa Saturday for the Cannon Gold Cup. The five year old scratch-bred who has a double dose of Sadler’s Wells in his pedigree has only run this distance twice. Last year in May, he ran second in a 16-furlong $46,000 allowance event in Germany where he showed a lot of early speed before being worn down in the stretch by Voodoo Smile, a $1.5 million dollar earner who finished second in a couple of grade 1 events in his career so far. The other time Kingstroem Wells ran this distance he’ll see on Saturday was in May of this year, when he won a $22,000 allowance event in Norway. Mostly, Kingstroem Wells has been hanging around the 12 furlong events in his career. But no matter where he’s run, Kingstroem Wells has shown a ton of early speed. He’ll probably bounce right out to the front in this event and try to hang on for a gate-to-wire (oops, make that barrier-to-wire–sorry, Mick) win. The horse with the double-dose of Sadler’s Wells in his pedigree should pretty much have his way on the front end early in this spot, and if his jockey can rate him properly, he might be one to keep your eye on here.

3 — FAR FROM OJAI (CA) Owner: KIRBY 09 Stables (ojai09)

Odds: 2/1 (Cee’s Tizzy x Diesis(GB) x Fairy King)

When Far From Ojai doesn’t pick up a check in a race, it’s an extremely unusual occurrence. This five year old son of Cee’s Tizzy has 28 starts, and he’s failed to get a check only three times in his entire career. That’s a pretty amazing number. In fact, of his 28 career starts, he’s crossed the finish line first 13 times, and he’s either placed or showed in ten other starts. That’s just incredible. About the only thing Far From Ojai doesn’t have coming in here is a graded win. But he does have some extremely impressive–and consistent–speed figures. Of his last 14 starts, he’s had triple digit speed figures 13 times, and you can expect him to add to that number this weekend in South Africa. His owner would love to get this one his first graded win, but he’s going to have his work cut out for him here. He’s only run this 16 furlongs once since June of last year, but he did it last time out when he won the Lock Edison Turf Stayer Stakes in the Czech Republic on July 23. He was seven lengths off the lead halfway through that race when he kicked it into gear and collared Tehuanaca at the 12 furlong marker and won drawing off, by 7 ¼ lengths. There was another horse in that race by the name of Not So Cheap, a $2.7 million earner who’s ranked number 29 in the world in this division. Far From Ojai knocked off Not So Cheap that day in the Czech Republic, and that’s pretty impressive, too. Looking at Far From Ojai’s past performance charts, you can see he’s been gaining ground in most of the 12-furlongs he’s been running in, so you might see something very dramatic from him here on Saturday. This is definitely a horse you want to keep your eye on in this spot. He’s a dangerous animal here in the Grade 3 Cannon Gold Cup.

4 — NEW MONEY (KY) Owner: The Evil Empire (lenny30)

Odds: 6/5 (Mineshaft x Your Hill (Danehill x Fappiano))

It’s been a while since New Money ran the 16 furlongs he’ll see in South Africa Saturday, but make no mistake about it. The entry from The Evil Empire Stables brings a ton of class to this race. With nearly $5 million in earnings and eight graded stakes wins, the five year old son of Mineshaft has done just about everything you can do in the older males long turf division, and that’s why he’s ranked number three in the world in that division. New Money is the defending champion of the Grade 3 Cannon Gold Cup. In fact, his win here in South Africa last year was sandwiched between a couple of very impressive 16-furlong graded stakes wins about this time last summer and early fall. New Money started off that streak with a win in the Grade 2 Greatwood Cup in Newmarket, where he led gate to wire in a 7 ¼ length win. Then he came here to South Africa and romped gate to wire again in the Cannon Gold Cup. And if that wasn’t impressive enough, he topped both of those efforts with yet another gate to wire win in the Grade 2 The Don’s Plastered Cup, a race he won by a stunning 12 ½ lengths in Surrey. This horse not only has the speed, but he showed he’s got plenty of stamina, too, as he was never threatened seriously in any of those races. It was probably one of the more impressive streaks of graded wins by any horse last year. Then he topped off last season with a huge score in the Grade 1 King Kong Vase, where he threw a whopping 115 speed figure. This year, New Money has dropped down to 12 and 14 furlong races, but he’s added two more stakes wins to his resume, including the Grade 3 Gary Trent Stakes back in January and the Grade 3 Irish Cup Stakes on June 25, when he won by a very comfortable six lengths there. He was throwing around speed figures ranging from 110-114 earlier this season, and he’s dropped just a tad his last two starts, but New Money definitely looks like the one to beat here.

5 – CENTEO (ENG) Owner: Rafa Stables (zoshka)

Odds: 3/1 (Rainbow Quest x Modena (Woodman x Northern Dancer))

Centeo is the hard-knocking, veteran turf campaigner in this race. The six year old son of Rainbow Quest out of the Woodman mare Modena has 47 starts and earnings topping $1.2 million so far in his career. He heads to the southern hemisphere Saturday to try for his first grade 3 win when he goes to the post in the 16-furlong Cannon Gold Cup. He’s got a grade 1 win in the $1 million G. P. Von Baden Cup in Germany (which accounted for about half of his career earnings) and a grade 2 win in the Dawn To Dusk Handicap in California. Both of those events were 12 furlongs, and they both came in 2009 for Centeo. So it’s been quite a while since he’s won a graded race. After winning three of five starts in allowance and open allowance company from September of last year until March of this year, Centeo is back on the stakes trail. Three of his last five starts since April have been in stakes races ranging from 13-16 furlongs, and Centeo showed he can stretch out quite nicely last time out when he won the 16-furlong Cuvee Redhead Turf Special in Queensland. He beat Bourbon Legend, whom he’ll see Saturday again, in that race down under. Centeo is getting back to his comfort zone here, a comfort zone similar to last year in late fall and early winter this year where he was throwing triple digit speed figures. He’s thrown 100-plus speed figures in his last three races, and he’ll be looking to give New Money a tough run on Saturday. This veteran campaigner likes to lay off the pace, and he’ll probably let New Money and a couple others have a go at it on the front end, before he makes his move late.