Spotlight Race of the Week-Montana
Almost got the top two in last weeks Spotlight race in Ireland correct. The favorites looked to be the best in the field and gave On a Thin Line the edge over co-favorite Red Galileo. But in the end, Red Galileo battled from start to finish with On a Thin Line and won the race by a full stride. Big Boob was my third choice, who I thought would set the pace. Instead, Big Boob joined the front end battle with the top two winners but faded off after passing the half way marker and finished fifth. Formal Approach got there to take third at 9-1.
The Spotlight race for this week comes to us from Montana. And the lucky race number is 7. This is a claiming race with a tag of $4k A field of eight are competing in a race open to all horses age four and up.
They will be going a distance of a mile and an eighth on the turf and the race is restricted to non-winners of a race in the past six months. The skies are overcast for the event, but the weatherman says “no rain” so we have firm turf conditions. Now we’ll try to find a winner in this group!
1. Opgoedgeluk 5-1 -Last won in February with 94 speed for 9 furlongs when claimed. Has been going maybe a bit too much, every three weeks and speeds have diminished. Race three weeks ago after a month and half rest with no improvement in speed. This is second race back after a rest, which usually generates better results. Still, may need a little more rest between races.
2. Rags Ragland 11-1-Has been racing mostly at allowance since breaking maiden in early 2010. Moved to claimers three back and has been dropping in level since then. Looks to be in a much more appropriate level in this race.
3. Stormy Hollow 8-1-Won back in March going mile with 92 speed. Has been aggressively race with 13 starts in 2011. Has averaged 74 SP in last five starts. Maybe showing age a bit and may benefit with more time off between starts.
4. Your Warning 3-1-Has performed much better on dirt (in money 15 of 22) than grass (3 of 17 in money). Finished 3rd in May on grass with speed of 91 which was run on this track in allowance local bred race. Recent history shows good outcomes against low claimers. Comes in off two month rest and could be fresh enough to win this.
5. Dancetothe finish 4-1-Average speeds over last five grass starts in 83, which is competitive in this field. Hasn’t won since beginning of 2010. Facing smaller field than recent races and could get a piece of the pie here.
6. Best Bluff 6-1-Expected to be pace setter in this field. Has tired badly in last three starts. If he can build a large enough lead, he may last on the front to beat these. Not much in field to challenge and pressure him on the front, so there is a chance he could pull it off.
7. T Rex 6-1 –Horse loves to run in the rear of the field. He’s capable of making a late run to the front but he’s been largely unreliable in getting the job done as is reflected in his two wins in 38 starts. Hasn’t been on dirt in years and may be worth a return effort on that surface.
8. Street John 4-1-Was way over his head in last race competing against $150k claimers. Back down to more competitive level and is at right distance. Has been in money in all four starts at distance of 9f to 9.5 furlongs, including two wins. Fits in this event.
Street John gets my vote here as he likes this distance.
Your Warning gets second spot, despite poor results on turf. Last trip on grass and recent speeds could earn the win.